1978 NFL Season

224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1975

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

5th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1977

Biggest Overachiever

Pittsburgh Steelers

2.84 wins above expected

14 wins · 11.16 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

4.10 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.10 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	14	2	.875	—	356	195	+161	11.16	+2.84
2	Houston Oilers Playoffs	10	6	.625	4	283	298	-15	8.45	+1.55
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	8	8	.500	6	334	356	-22	8.07	-0.07
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	10	252	284	-32	6.58	-2.58

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	5	.688	—	372	254	+118	10.05	+0.95
2	New England Patriots Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	358	286	+72	9.81	+1.19
3	New York Jets	8	8	.500	3	359	364	-5	6.33	+1.67
4	Buffalo Bills	5	11	.312	6	302	354	-52	5.78	-0.78
5	Baltimore Colts	5	11	.312	6	239	421	-182	6.95	-1.95

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	10	6	.625	—	282	198	+84	10.51	-0.51
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	1	345	358	-13	6.69	+2.31
3	San Diego Chargers	9	7	.562	1	355	309	+46	7.82	+1.18
4	Oakland Raiders	9	7	.562	1	311	283	+28	10.08	-1.08
5	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	6	243	327	-84	5.43	-1.43

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	8	7	1	.531	—	294	306	-12	9.15	-0.65
2	Green Bay Packers	8	7	1	.531	—	249	269	-20	7.44	+1.06
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	0	.438	1.5	290	300	-10	6.59	+0.41
4	Chicago Bears	7	9	0	.438	1.5	253	274	-21	7.97	-0.97
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	0	.312	3.5	241	259	-18	6.54	-1.54

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	—	384	208	+176	10.63	+1.37
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	270	250	+20	7.51	+1.49
3	Washington Redskins	8	8	.500	4	273	283	-10	9.44	-1.44
4	New York Giants	6	10	.375	6	264	298	-34	7.30	-1.30
5	St. Louis Cardinals	6	10	.375	6	248	296	-48	6.42	-0.42

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	4	.750	—	316	245	+71	11.13	+0.87
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	240	290	-50	8.20	+0.80
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	5	281	298	-17	5.87	+1.13
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	.125	10	219	350	-131	6.10	-4.10

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Oilers 17

Miami Dolphins 9

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 33

Denver Broncos 10

Dec 30

Houston Oilers 31

New England Patriots 14

Dec 31

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Houston Oilers 5

Jan 7

NFC

Wild Card Round

Atlanta Falcons 14

Philadelphia Eagles 13

Dec 24

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 27

Atlanta Falcons 20

Dec 30

Los Angeles Rams 34

Minnesota Vikings 10

Dec 31

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 28

Los Angeles Rams 0

Jan 7

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 35

Dallas Cowboys 31

Jan 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1717	12	10.63	+1.37	85.24%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1701	14	11.16	+2.84	98.31%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1645	11	10.05	+0.95	78.00%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1632	12	11.13	+0.87	77.91%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1628	10	10.51	-0.51	49.50%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1607	11	9.81	+1.19	82.54%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1567	9	7.82	+1.18	81.99%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1559	9	10.08	-1.08	38.25%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1536	10	8.45	+1.55	86.21%	0	5	7	8	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1528	9	7.51	+1.49	85.68%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1511	8.5	9.15	-0.65	36.96%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1486	4	6.58	-2.58	13.84%	1	4	5	6	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1481	9	6.69	+2.31	93.00%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1477	7	6.59	+0.41	69.94%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1475	7	7.97	-0.97	41.36%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1472	8	6.33	+1.67	88.11%	1	3	5	6	8	9	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1471	8	8.07	-0.07	59.17%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1468	8	9.44	-1.44	31.98%	3	6	8	9	11	12	16
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1465	6	6.42	-0.42	53.02%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1457	9	8.20	+0.80	75.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1444	8.5	7.44	+1.06	71.87%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1437	7	5.87	+1.13	81.70%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1410	6	7.30	-1.30	34.75%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1385	5	5.78	-0.78	45.71%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1381	5	6.95	-1.95	22.88%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1374	4	5.43	-1.43	32.03%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1352	5	6.54	-1.54	30.47%	1	3	5	6	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1334	2	6.10	-4.10	2.06%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.89%	2.01%	2.90%	2.23%	0.67%	0.22%	0.22%	9.15%
7–13	2.01%	4.02%	7.14%	4.24%	2.46%	1.12%	—	20.98%
14–20	2.90%	7.14%	9.82%	6.92%	3.35%	1.12%	0.89%	32.14%
21–27	2.23%	4.24%	6.92%	3.57%	2.46%	—	1.12%	20.54%
28–34	0.67%	2.46%	3.35%	2.46%	1.79%	0.67%	0.22%	11.61%
35–41	0.22%	1.12%	1.12%	—	0.67%	—	—	3.12%
42+	0.22%	—	0.89%	1.12%	0.22%	—	—	2.46%
Total	9.15%	20.98%	32.14%	20.54%	11.61%	3.12%	2.46%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.33	18.33	+0.00
SD	9.70	9.70	13.52
CV	0.53	0.53	—
Max	55	55	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 224

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	25.00%	43.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	18.12	-3.12
SD	6.91	10.89	12.77
CV	0.46	0.60	—
Max	23	42	+14
Min	0	0	-30

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	37.50%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	—	25.00%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	12.50%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.94	26.31	-11.38
SD	9.33	10.93	15.86
CV	0.62	0.42	—
Max	34	45	+13
Min	0	6	-42

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	22.12	-3.25
SD	9.02	11.39	13.80
CV	0.48	0.51	—
Max	41	45	+24
Min	5	0	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
14–20	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	75.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	25.00%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.81	17.12	-1.31
SD	5.19	11.97	12.40
CV	0.33	0.70	—
Max	29	40	+19
Min	7	0	-33

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	25.00%	18.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.75	17.75	-2.00
SD	13.54	8.37	15.91
CV	0.86	0.47	—
Max	48	34	+32
Min	0	5	-25

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
14–20	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	12.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	25.00%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	56.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	12.50%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.88	22.25	-1.38
SD	12.48	12.19	15.84
CV	0.60	0.55	—
Max	45	48	+21
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	50.00%	6.25%	31.25%	—	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.00	13.00	+11.00
SD	10.84	7.99	14.96
CV	0.45	0.61	—
Max	42	27	+38
Min	5	0	-13

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	43.75%
21–27	12.50%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	31.25%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.62	12.38	+5.25
SD	7.93	8.06	11.29
CV	0.45	0.65	—
Max	28	31	+21
Min	0	3	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	43.75%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	50.00%	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.12	18.75	-0.62
SD	12.45	7.18	14.81
CV	0.69	0.38	—
Max	45	35	+31
Min	0	7	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
7–13	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	31.25%	31.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.56	16.81	-1.25
SD	12.70	10.65	15.95
CV	0.82	0.63	—
Max	45	42	+21
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	31.25%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	6.25%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.69	18.62	-0.94
SD	7.60	9.49	8.41
CV	0.43	0.51	—
Max	35	45	+7
Min	3	10	-21

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	31.25%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	12.50%	37.50%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.19	20.44	-5.25
SD	6.46	9.21	12.14
CV	0.43	0.45	—
Max	24	30	+23
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	50.00%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.75	15.31	+4.44
SD	9.60	7.91	8.75
CV	0.49	0.52	—
Max	34	30	+17
Min	3	0	-11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
21–27	18.75%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	31.25%	12.50%	12.50%	25.00%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.25	15.88	+7.38
SD	8.47	12.37	15.36
CV	0.36	0.78	—
Max	42	35	+42
Min	3	0	-14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	31.25%
21–27	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	43.75%	18.75%	12.50%	18.75%	—	6.25%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.38	19.12	-0.75
SD	6.49	11.66	11.98
CV	0.35	0.61	—
Max	28	45	+17
Min	7	7	-31

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
28–34	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	12.50%	6.25%	37.50%	37.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.38	17.88	+4.50
SD	12.33	7.91	12.14
CV	0.55	0.44	—
Max	55	34	+34
Min	3	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	12.50%	25.00%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	62.50%
21–27	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.56	18.62	-1.06
SD	6.17	7.28	8.84
CV	0.35	0.39	—
Max	31	28	+11
Min	7	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
14–20	12.50%	6.25%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	56.25%
21–27	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	18.62	-2.12
SD	6.81	10.31	13.13
CV	0.41	0.55	—
Max	27	41	+17
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
14–20	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	6.25%	31.25%
28–34	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.44	22.75	-0.31
SD	11.06	11.42	17.04
CV	0.49	0.50	—
Max	45	55	+31
Min	3	10	-34

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	18.75%
7–13	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	31.25%
28–34	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	6.25%	43.75%	37.50%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.44	17.69	+1.75
SD	9.29	6.70	13.21
CV	0.48	0.38	—
Max	34	27	+25
Min	6	3	-20

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
14–20	12.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	56.25%
21–27	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	18.75%	37.50%	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.88	15.62	+1.25
SD	6.17	9.76	9.09
CV	0.37	0.62	—
Max	30	35	+17
Min	7	3	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	18.75%
14–20	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	6.25%	6.25%	18.75%	—	—	—	—	31.25%
35–41	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.25	12.19	+10.06
SD	8.72	6.51	9.57
CV	0.39	0.53	—
Max	35	24	+25
Min	7	3	-7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
14–20	—	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	18.75%
21–27	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	37.50%
28–34	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	43.75%	18.75%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.19	19.31	+2.88
SD	12.16	9.08	17.02
CV	0.55	0.47	—
Max	45	31	+33
Min	0	0	-23

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
7–13	—	—	18.75%	37.50%	—	—	—	56.25%
14–20	—	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	6.25%	31.25%	37.50%	12.50%	6.25%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.69	21.88	-8.19
SD	7.01	8.66	9.62
CV	0.51	0.40	—
Max	28	38	+16
Min	6	3	-19

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	6.25%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	6.25%	25.00%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	12.50%	37.50%	18.75%	18.75%	6.25%	6.25%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.56	22.38	-0.81
SD	10.22	9.61	13.56
CV	0.47	0.43	—
Max	47	45	+23
Min	7	7	-27

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	—	12.50%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	18.75%	—	—	6.25%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	18.75%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
Total	—	18.75%	37.50%	31.25%	12.50%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.50	18.50	-3.00
SD	9.70	6.25	11.60
CV	0.63	0.34	—
Max	42	30	+21
Min	0	10	-18

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	—	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	—	—	—	37.50%
14–20	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
21–27	—	—	—	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	—	18.75%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	6.25%	31.25%	43.75%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.06	16.19	-1.12
SD	10.03	7.27	10.89
CV	0.67	0.45	—
Max	33	34	+21
Min	3	6	-17

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
7–13	6.25%	—	12.50%	—	—	6.25%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	6.25%	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	—	31.25%
21–27	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
28–34	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
35–41	—	—	6.25%	—	6.25%	—	—	12.50%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	12.50%	50.00%	12.50%	6.25%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.06	17.69	-0.62
SD	10.20	8.65	12.64
CV	0.60	0.49	—
Max	38	37	+20
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 16

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	11.16	+2.84
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	6.69	+2.31
3	New York Jets	8	6.33	+1.67
4	Houston Oilers	10	8.45	+1.55
5	Philadelphia Eagles	9	7.51	+1.49

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	2	6.10	-4.10
2	Cincinnati Bengals	4	6.58	-2.58
3	Baltimore Colts	5	6.95	-1.95
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	6.54	-1.54
5	Washington Redskins	8	9.44	-1.44

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Oct 29 – Nov 19	1 in 78
2	New Orleans Saints	3	Oct 15 – Oct 29	1 in 52
3	New England Patriots	7	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 37
4	San Diego Chargers	4	Oct 29 – Nov 19	1 in 30
5	Atlanta Falcons	5	Oct 15 – Nov 12	1 in 25

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Sep 3 – Oct 22	1 in 374
2	Chicago Bears	8	Sep 25 – Nov 12	1 in 335
3	San Francisco 49ers	9	Oct 8 – Dec 3	1 in 74
4	Washington Redskins	5	Nov 19 – Dec 16	1 in 52
5	St. Louis Cardinals	8	Sep 3 – Oct 22	1 in 39

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.85%	18.85%	6.60%	1.70%
Houston Oilers	13.85%	37.55%	31.61%	16.99%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	10.50%	30.80%	34.72%	23.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.80%	12.80%	27.07%	57.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	47.87%	33.77%	12.39%	4.52%	1.45%
New England Patriots	43.04%	36.74%	13.46%	5.22%	1.54%
Baltimore Colts	4.81%	14.70%	32.26%	27.88%	20.35%
New York Jets	2.97%	9.39%	23.62%	32.90%	31.12%
Buffalo Bills	1.31%	5.40%	18.27%	29.48%	45.54%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Denver Broncos	49.76%	32.13%	12.72%	4.23%	1.16%
Oakland Raiders	39.61%	36.99%	16.48%	5.57%	1.35%
San Diego Chargers	7.23%	18.89%	36.67%	26.08%	11.13%
Seattle Seahawks	2.84%	9.09%	23.68%	37.56%	26.83%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.56%	2.90%	10.45%	26.56%	59.53%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	48.23%	24.84%	14.69%	8.19%	4.05%
Chicago Bears	21.98%	26.22%	21.96%	17.70%	12.14%
Green Bay Packers	15.93%	21.75%	23.44%	21.71%	17.17%
Detroit Lions	7.56%	13.63%	20.59%	26.92%	31.30%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.30%	13.56%	19.32%	25.48%	35.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	58.37%	25.91%	10.32%	4.12%	1.28%
Washington Redskins	26.97%	36.19%	20.92%	11.09%	4.83%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.90%	16.57%	28.20%	27.16%	21.17%
New York Giants	5.39%	13.59%	23.73%	30.26%	27.03%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.37%	7.74%	16.83%	27.37%	45.69%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	82.79%	14.16%	2.61%	0.44%
Atlanta Falcons	13.43%	53.85%	22.51%	10.21%
San Francisco 49ers	2.23%	16.68%	39.40%	41.69%
New Orleans Saints	1.55%	15.31%	35.48%	47.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	30.75%	22.29%	16.51%	10.10%	7.29%	5.19%	3.00%	1.99%	1.34%	0.75%	0.49%	0.23%	0.04%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	20.77%	17.30%	15.22%	12.81%	10.54%	7.60%	5.22%	3.74%	2.69%	1.84%	0.89%	0.71%	0.49%	0.18%
Oakland Raiders	14.82%	14.48%	14.29%	14.11%	11.55%	9.48%	7.18%	5.14%	3.47%	2.24%	1.52%	1.05%	0.52%	0.15%
Miami Dolphins	13.76%	15.61%	15.19%	12.83%	11.57%	9.72%	6.59%	4.87%	3.63%	2.55%	1.66%	1.13%	0.71%	0.18%
New England Patriots	10.54%	14.69%	14.77%	13.85%	11.78%	10.36%	7.15%	5.32%	4.44%	2.92%	1.91%	1.12%	0.74%	0.41%
Houston Oilers	3.68%	5.13%	6.71%	9.16%	11.45%	11.80%	10.71%	10.53%	9.87%	7.25%	5.53%	4.50%	2.42%	1.26%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.26%	3.64%	5.37%	7.53%	9.42%	11.17%	10.80%	11.00%	10.36%	8.72%	7.49%	6.54%	3.87%	1.83%
San Diego Chargers	1.65%	2.76%	4.34%	6.37%	7.64%	8.71%	12.20%	11.90%	10.68%	9.68%	8.52%	6.67%	5.43%	3.45%
Baltimore Colts	0.49%	1.15%	2.28%	3.69%	4.84%	6.17%	8.49%	10.55%	11.92%	10.50%	11.03%	10.61%	10.15%	8.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.47%	0.95%	1.41%	2.72%	3.72%	5.46%	7.40%	8.15%	9.64%	11.94%	13.52%	15.59%	11.35%	7.68%
Seattle Seahawks	0.39%	0.99%	1.73%	3.01%	3.90%	5.04%	7.47%	8.49%	9.90%	12.14%	12.46%	11.80%	11.79%	10.89%
New York Jets	0.20%	0.65%	1.30%	2.02%	3.25%	4.38%	6.24%	7.73%	8.97%	10.83%	13.10%	13.49%	14.14%	13.70%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	0.20%	0.58%	1.09%	1.94%	2.84%	4.24%	6.28%	7.44%	10.29%	11.27%	12.93%	17.46%	23.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.16%	0.30%	0.71%	1.11%	2.08%	3.31%	4.31%	5.65%	8.35%	10.61%	13.63%	20.89%	28.82%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	38.94%	25.07%	14.16%	7.96%	5.37%	3.30%	2.00%	1.26%	0.89%	0.56%	0.27%	0.15%	0.07%	—
Dallas Cowboys	29.01%	22.19%	14.16%	11.35%	7.71%	4.78%	3.70%	2.49%	1.75%	1.14%	0.84%	0.55%	0.17%	0.16%
Washington Redskins	10.67%	13.31%	14.16%	13.58%	10.52%	9.35%	8.18%	5.76%	4.52%	3.80%	2.46%	1.71%	1.23%	0.75%
Minnesota Vikings	8.03%	13.08%	16.41%	12.92%	10.72%	9.67%	7.13%	5.90%	4.71%	4.17%	2.67%	2.14%	1.43%	1.02%
Atlanta Falcons	3.68%	5.85%	7.47%	10.36%	13.20%	12.12%	9.95%	8.70%	7.83%	6.24%	4.89%	4.31%	3.43%	1.97%
Chicago Bears	2.36%	5.57%	8.86%	9.05%	9.90%	9.81%	8.99%	8.90%	8.37%	7.10%	6.76%	5.87%	4.64%	3.82%
Green Bay Packers	1.68%	3.71%	5.97%	6.82%	8.27%	8.66%	8.81%	9.28%	9.29%	8.63%	8.69%	7.53%	6.44%	6.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.22%	3.12%	4.73%	7.02%	7.42%	8.34%	9.74%	9.83%	9.50%	9.21%	8.58%	7.91%	6.67%	5.71%
New York Giants	1.35%	2.96%	3.93%	5.84%	6.42%	7.70%	9.10%	9.60%	8.80%	10.14%	9.60%	8.81%	8.34%	7.41%
Detroit Lions	0.46%	1.53%	3.19%	3.49%	4.92%	5.96%	7.25%	8.24%	8.77%	10.00%	11.13%	10.80%	10.87%	13.39%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.64%	1.32%	2.47%	3.89%	4.72%	5.89%	6.87%	7.63%	8.35%	9.25%	11.06%	11.01%	12.16%	14.74%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.49%	1.14%	1.76%	3.41%	4.05%	4.85%	6.43%	7.48%	8.62%	9.63%	10.96%	11.91%	13.91%	15.36%
San Francisco 49ers	0.25%	0.72%	1.58%	2.34%	3.48%	5.02%	6.19%	8.05%	10.09%	10.30%	10.74%	13.49%	13.85%	13.90%
New Orleans Saints	0.22%	0.43%	1.15%	1.97%	3.30%	4.55%	5.66%	6.88%	8.51%	9.83%	11.35%	13.81%	16.79%	15.55%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Los Angeles Rams	19.70%	16.32%	12.14%	11.63%	7.54%	7.14%	4.89%	4.34%	3.24%	3.26%	1.92%	1.75%	1.32%	1.35%	0.72%	0.65%	0.47%	0.51%	0.31%	0.26%	0.20%	0.11%	0.13%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.20%	14.56%	12.61%	10.33%	8.49%	7.22%	4.83%	4.73%	4.13%	2.67%	2.42%	2.07%	1.46%	1.03%	1.05%	0.90%	0.49%	0.44%	0.40%	0.31%	0.20%	0.18%	0.12%	0.09%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	12.95%	13.82%	10.82%	9.93%	7.59%	7.31%	6.12%	5.90%	4.60%	3.84%	3.11%	2.44%	2.22%	1.95%	1.45%	1.20%	1.04%	0.90%	0.71%	0.61%	0.35%	0.32%	0.35%	0.17%	0.12%	0.05%	0.09%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	11.90%	10.69%	9.94%	8.88%	8.34%	7.57%	6.87%	5.28%	4.89%	4.40%	3.90%	3.09%	2.74%	2.19%	1.77%	1.37%	1.31%	1.09%	0.97%	0.74%	0.56%	0.37%	0.28%	0.28%	0.27%	0.18%	0.07%	0.06%
Oakland Raiders	7.91%	8.16%	8.23%	7.89%	8.25%	7.16%	7.39%	6.03%	6.37%	4.48%	5.08%	3.74%	3.72%	2.56%	2.69%	2.34%	1.70%	1.29%	1.01%	0.89%	0.83%	0.70%	0.50%	0.53%	0.28%	0.12%	0.10%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	7.87%	7.84%	8.96%	7.66%	8.49%	7.07%	6.89%	5.95%	5.85%	4.82%	5.03%	4.11%	3.22%	2.70%	2.42%	2.16%	1.65%	1.55%	1.44%	0.99%	0.90%	0.70%	0.63%	0.39%	0.30%	0.21%	0.11%	0.09%
New England Patriots	5.58%	6.55%	8.14%	7.78%	8.23%	7.00%	7.49%	6.18%	6.01%	5.38%	4.89%	4.32%	3.40%	3.38%	2.54%	2.68%	1.90%	1.78%	1.69%	1.20%	0.96%	0.79%	0.69%	0.51%	0.37%	0.27%	0.18%	0.11%
Washington Redskins	3.85%	6.07%	5.92%	6.47%	6.66%	7.17%	6.39%	6.60%	5.35%	5.56%	5.13%	4.99%	4.46%	4.11%	3.46%	2.86%	2.78%	2.08%	2.29%	1.87%	1.46%	1.05%	0.79%	0.85%	0.73%	0.48%	0.38%	0.19%
Minnesota Vikings	3.22%	3.99%	5.18%	6.28%	6.54%	7.81%	6.66%	6.60%	5.70%	5.90%	4.89%	5.46%	4.18%	4.04%	3.21%	3.18%	2.64%	2.72%	2.22%	2.03%	1.74%	1.36%	1.20%	0.97%	0.82%	0.62%	0.50%	0.34%
Houston Oilers	1.67%	2.06%	3.19%	3.05%	3.93%	3.78%	5.34%	4.93%	5.92%	5.25%	5.78%	5.07%	5.24%	4.99%	5.17%	5.03%	4.55%	4.56%	3.69%	3.23%	2.81%	2.65%	2.13%	2.01%	1.24%	1.38%	0.75%	0.60%
Atlanta Falcons	0.97%	1.89%	2.35%	3.20%	3.33%	3.72%	4.23%	5.64%	5.43%	6.80%	5.02%	6.40%	5.31%	5.58%	4.53%	4.61%	4.41%	3.97%	3.50%	3.33%	2.79%	2.91%	2.25%	2.27%	1.72%	1.79%	1.29%	0.76%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.09%	1.29%	1.90%	2.33%	3.38%	3.38%	4.01%	3.96%	4.85%	4.97%	5.42%	5.53%	5.08%	4.81%	5.35%	5.03%	5.21%	4.58%	4.50%	3.87%	3.82%	3.61%	2.97%	2.79%	2.33%	1.84%	1.15%	0.95%
Chicago Bears	0.69%	1.25%	2.14%	2.78%	3.31%	4.13%	4.04%	4.94%	4.41%	5.41%	4.57%	5.32%	4.56%	5.06%	4.42%	4.94%	4.63%	4.54%	3.74%	3.68%	3.69%	3.33%	3.15%	3.12%	2.26%	2.41%	2.20%	1.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.60%	1.18%	1.66%	1.58%	2.58%	2.56%	3.73%	3.62%	4.07%	3.89%	5.20%	4.44%	5.95%	4.98%	5.99%	5.26%	5.31%	4.84%	4.52%	4.73%	4.02%	3.97%	3.45%	3.22%	2.84%	2.45%	1.97%	1.39%
Green Bay Packers	0.50%	0.75%	1.16%	1.92%	2.18%	2.85%	2.97%	3.41%	3.64%	4.49%	4.08%	4.91%	4.29%	4.91%	4.68%	4.70%	4.96%	5.01%	4.71%	4.64%	4.39%	4.39%	4.52%	3.78%	3.33%	3.08%	3.34%	2.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.65%	0.96%	1.18%	1.77%	1.97%	2.28%	2.96%	3.49%	3.96%	3.71%	4.34%	4.31%	5.04%	4.91%	4.78%	4.87%	5.08%	5.17%	4.52%	4.64%	4.53%	4.66%	4.06%	4.12%	3.23%	3.45%	3.00%	2.36%
New York Giants	0.36%	0.67%	0.98%	1.45%	1.68%	2.17%	2.17%	3.04%	2.74%	3.95%	3.65%	4.23%	4.16%	5.10%	4.85%	5.01%	4.62%	4.69%	5.33%	5.24%	4.91%	4.74%	4.80%	4.25%	4.18%	4.33%	3.63%	3.07%
Baltimore Colts	0.24%	0.36%	0.53%	0.78%	1.27%	1.27%	2.04%	2.15%	2.82%	2.60%	3.22%	3.26%	3.95%	4.53%	5.31%	5.06%	5.44%	5.49%	5.31%	5.10%	5.37%	5.02%	5.35%	5.65%	4.82%	4.92%	4.25%	3.89%
Seattle Seahawks	0.13%	0.29%	0.47%	0.62%	0.99%	1.11%	1.83%	1.82%	2.16%	2.09%	2.89%	2.69%	3.87%	3.52%	4.30%	4.30%	4.77%	4.71%	6.06%	5.87%	5.68%	5.41%	5.94%	5.77%	5.88%	5.85%	5.71%	5.27%
Detroit Lions	0.16%	0.19%	0.43%	0.69%	1.00%	1.57%	1.44%	1.92%	2.06%	2.48%	2.62%	3.21%	3.52%	3.64%	4.17%	4.01%	4.64%	5.10%	5.23%	5.29%	5.85%	5.70%	5.73%	5.12%	5.91%	5.75%	6.54%	6.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.18%	0.32%	0.46%	0.45%	0.87%	0.80%	1.46%	1.61%	1.91%	2.16%	2.81%	3.11%	3.72%	3.61%	4.24%	4.22%	4.41%	4.80%	5.44%	5.67%	6.05%	6.93%	6.67%	7.37%	5.68%	5.49%	4.92%	4.64%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.17%	0.19%	0.41%	0.64%	0.85%	1.22%	1.30%	2.09%	1.96%	2.55%	2.60%	3.00%	3.66%	3.86%	3.66%	3.99%	4.28%	4.30%	4.90%	5.16%	5.75%	5.40%	6.05%	5.68%	6.32%	6.31%	6.66%	7.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.15%	0.18%	0.31%	0.62%	0.82%	0.86%	1.27%	1.43%	1.88%	2.28%	2.38%	2.67%	3.03%	3.33%	3.76%	3.82%	4.64%	4.49%	4.91%	4.96%	5.46%	5.70%	5.94%	6.56%	6.84%	7.42%	7.08%	7.21%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.10%	0.33%	0.51%	0.59%	0.74%	1.10%	1.16%	1.78%	1.75%	2.71%	2.25%	2.80%	3.40%	4.01%	3.82%	3.94%	4.58%	5.01%	5.66%	6.17%	6.52%	6.31%	6.88%	7.24%	6.89%	6.69%	7.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.11%	0.21%	0.33%	0.46%	0.83%	0.86%	1.24%	1.31%	1.71%	2.06%	2.49%	2.89%	3.43%	3.30%	4.56%	4.80%	5.28%	4.39%	5.50%	5.65%	5.77%	6.39%	6.62%	7.49%	7.57%	7.45%	7.23%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.11%	0.15%	0.22%	0.29%	0.63%	0.73%	0.76%	1.19%	1.91%	1.76%	2.26%	2.76%	2.92%	2.84%	3.60%	3.98%	4.72%	4.38%	5.38%	5.63%	6.39%	6.33%	7.25%	7.69%	8.74%	8.21%	9.14%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.08%	0.11%	0.12%	0.21%	0.40%	0.63%	0.72%	1.13%	0.97%	1.49%	1.60%	2.01%	2.46%	2.92%	3.36%	3.59%	4.07%	4.62%	4.96%	5.60%	5.75%	6.33%	6.60%	8.25%	8.48%	10.84%	12.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%	0.02%	0.09%	0.09%	0.16%	0.25%	0.36%	0.46%	0.64%	0.72%	1.03%	1.28%	1.44%	1.65%	2.41%	2.47%	2.76%	2.74%	4.20%	4.19%	4.63%	5.57%	6.94%	7.13%	9.79%	9.86%	12.88%	16.19%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	30.75%	23.42%	18.68%	7.36%	7.03%	12.76%
Denver Broncos	20.77%	16.43%	12.56%	15.72%	11.02%	23.50%
Oakland Raiders	14.82%	13.79%	11.00%	17.32%	12.22%	30.85%
Miami Dolphins	13.76%	16.36%	17.75%	10.99%	10.52%	30.62%
New England Patriots	10.54%	14.88%	17.62%	11.96%	11.09%	33.91%
Houston Oilers	3.68%	4.76%	5.41%	10.46%	11.68%	64.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.26%	3.52%	4.72%	7.72%	9.88%	71.90%
San Diego Chargers	1.65%	2.49%	3.09%	6.98%	8.16%	77.63%
Baltimore Colts	0.49%	1.24%	3.08%	3.10%	4.57%	87.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.47%	0.94%	1.39%	2.57%	3.79%	90.84%
Seattle Seahawks	0.39%	1.01%	1.44%	2.86%	4.05%	90.25%
New York Jets	0.20%	0.76%	2.01%	1.46%	3.08%	92.49%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	0.24%	0.92%	0.84%	1.83%	96.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.16%	0.33%	0.66%	1.08%	97.70%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	38.94%	27.49%	16.36%	5.07%	4.37%	7.77%
Dallas Cowboys	29.01%	20.48%	8.88%	16.58%	9.02%	16.03%
Washington Redskins	10.67%	10.55%	5.75%	22.27%	12.33%	38.43%
Minnesota Vikings	8.03%	14.82%	25.38%	5.61%	8.40%	37.76%
Atlanta Falcons	3.68%	5.35%	4.40%	12.45%	14.59%	59.53%
Chicago Bears	2.36%	6.09%	13.53%	5.79%	8.51%	63.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.22%	2.70%	1.98%	8.26%	8.61%	76.23%
Green Bay Packers	1.68%	4.23%	10.02%	4.09%	6.82%	73.16%
New York Giants	1.35%	2.47%	1.57%	7.16%	7.29%	80.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.64%	1.51%	4.15%	2.69%	4.31%	86.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.49%	1.00%	0.88%	3.52%	4.50%	89.61%
Detroit Lions	0.46%	1.89%	5.21%	2.10%	4.29%	86.05%
San Francisco 49ers	0.25%	0.84%	1.14%	2.40%	3.58%	91.79%
New Orleans Saints	0.22%	0.58%	0.75%	2.01%	3.38%	93.06%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	78.96%	78.96%	58.87%	41.22%	24.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	82.59%	82.59%	55.10%	35.18%	20.87%
Los Angeles Rams	88.76%	88.76%	56.91%	32.25%	15.34%
Miami Dolphins	61.12%	61.12%	32.77%	17.02%	8.97%
Denver Broncos	66.16%	66.16%	34.40%	16.55%	8.34%
New England Patriots	56.26%	56.26%	27.69%	12.90%	5.93%
Oakland Raiders	54.90%	54.90%	23.34%	9.28%	4.11%
Minnesota Vikings	54.90%	54.90%	21.57%	7.40%	2.57%
Washington Redskins	44.63%	44.63%	18.75%	5.80%	1.76%
Houston Oilers	23.42%	23.42%	9.30%	3.18%	1.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	16.87%	16.22%	7.47%	2.78%	1.11%
San Diego Chargers	15.14%	14.65%	5.62%	2.43%	1.05%
Chicago Bears	28.35%	28.35%	8.71%	2.59%	0.90%
Atlanta Falcons	27.04%	25.04%	9.52%	2.86%	0.72%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	17.60%	16.51%	5.17%	1.53%	0.51%
Green Bay Packers	20.13%	20.13%	5.93%	1.68%	0.44%
Detroit Lions	10.35%	10.35%	3.28%	1.01%	0.23%
New York Giants	14.45%	11.03%	3.64%	0.87%	0.22%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.02%	5.90%	2.16%	0.70%	0.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.36%	5.11%	1.71%	0.62%	0.19%
New York Jets	4.57%	4.57%	1.41%	0.41%	0.19%
Seattle Seahawks	6.91%	5.29%	1.62%	0.48%	0.16%
New Orleans Saints	5.39%	3.77%	1.14%	0.36%	0.10%
Baltimore Colts	7.67%	6.45%	1.36%	0.29%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	5.98%	3.72%	0.74%	0.22%	0.07%
Buffalo Bills	2.67%	1.93%	0.33%	0.12%	0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.24%	8.24%	1.31%	0.26%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.74%	1.04%	0.18%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.02%	0.15%	0.26%	0.22%	0.28%	0.03%	0.08%	0.06%	0.01%	0.19%	0.11%	0.13%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%		0.03%	0.09%	0.09%	0.07%		0.02%	0.05%		0.11%	0.03%	0.05%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.17%	0.05%		0.11%	0.26%	0.14%	0.03%	0.17%	0.20%	0.14%	0.54%	0.05%	0.24%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.58%	0.07%	0.19%		0.83%	0.44%	0.08%	0.65%	0.66%	0.24%	1.32%	0.10%	0.48%	0.37%
Denver Broncos	1.17%	0.45%	0.72%	2.46%		2.69%	0.10%	2.25%	2.63%	0.57%	0.59%	1.29%	1.02%	0.46%
Houston Oilers	0.64%	0.21%	0.22%	0.55%	1.39%		0.23%	0.98%	1.18%	0.29%	2.22%	0.14%	1.00%	0.52%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	0.02%	0.08%		0.08%	0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.43%	0.11%	0.50%	1.91%	2.31%	2.06%	0.25%		0.17%	0.08%	2.91%	0.79%	1.10%	0.63%
New England Patriots	0.46%	0.16%	0.47%	1.92%	2.17%	1.94%	0.22%	0.10%		0.17%	2.70%	0.74%	1.34%	0.83%
New York Jets	0.04%	0.01%	0.07%	0.18%	0.23%	0.23%	0.04%	0.04%	0.08%		0.37%	0.08%	0.12%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	1.23%	0.51%	1.00%	2.30%	0.29%	2.69%	0.10%	1.71%	2.38%	0.65%		0.80%	1.09%	0.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.52%	0.17%	0.25%	0.39%	1.61%	0.35%	0.10%	1.22%	1.20%	0.43%	1.97%		1.04%	0.49%
San Diego Chargers	0.55%	0.20%	0.34%	1.03%	0.75%	1.20%	0.05%	0.69%	0.88%	0.25%	0.95%	0.38%		0.15%
Seattle Seahawks	0.18%	0.08%	0.10%	0.27%	0.17%	0.40%	0.03%	0.27%	0.30%	0.10%	0.33%	0.13%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.99%	0.94%	0.43%	0.95%		0.82%	0.12%	1.28%	1.14%	0.26%	0.61%	0.74%	3.33%
Chicago Bears	0.98%		0.49%	0.13%	0.19%	0.20%	0.17%	0.18%	0.87%	0.47%	0.24%	0.48%	0.10%	1.87%
Dallas Cowboys	4.48%	1.89%		0.87%	2.02%	1.10%	2.00%	0.70%	1.71%	1.39%	1.04%	0.81%	1.16%	1.42%
Detroit Lions	0.31%	0.12%	0.24%		0.05%	0.10%	0.07%	0.10%	0.32%	0.30%	0.11%	0.18%	0.03%	0.86%
Green Bay Packers	0.60%	0.18%	0.35%	0.06%		0.13%	0.15%	0.09%	0.57%	0.35%	0.26%	0.20%	0.15%	1.11%
Los Angeles Rams	0.08%	0.44%	0.83%	0.18%	0.29%		0.38%	0.04%	0.62%	0.83%	0.09%	0.33%	0.26%	1.60%
Minnesota Vikings	1.09%	0.23%	0.58%	0.09%	0.16%	0.27%		0.21%	0.74%	0.66%	0.28%	0.29%	0.13%	1.94%
New Orleans Saints	0.08%	0.21%	0.17%	0.04%	0.12%	0.02%	0.16%		0.25%	0.20%	0.01%	0.15%	0.13%	0.68%
New York Giants	1.16%	0.46%	0.19%	0.20%	0.50%	0.33%	0.53%	0.25%		0.38%	0.32%	0.15%	0.31%	0.86%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.73%	0.95%	0.51%	0.41%	0.68%	0.31%	0.88%	0.31%	0.57%		0.47%	0.25%	0.55%	1.70%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.21%	0.11%	0.05%	0.07%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.11%	0.15%		0.09%	0.05%	0.51%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.79%	0.27%	0.16%	0.16%	0.19%	0.16%	0.39%	0.19%	0.05%	0.19%	0.23%		0.19%	0.56%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.31%	0.04%	0.11%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.12%	0.07%	0.26%	0.15%	0.09%	0.20%		0.50%
Washington Redskins	3.75%	1.94%	0.33%	0.95%	1.48%	0.79%	1.62%	0.90%	1.46%	1.34%	1.09%	0.75%	1.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.04%	0.11%	0.33%	0.12%	0.01%				0.42%	0.19%	0.10%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills				0.04%	0.05%	0.06%					0.11%	0.06%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%	0.02%			0.40%		0.01%	0.31%	0.32%	0.03%	0.42%		0.10%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.15%	0.05%			1.22%		0.03%	0.90%	1.05%	0.09%	1.32%		0.26%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	1.15%	0.52%	1.14%	3.24%		4.33%		7.85%	7.74%	0.81%		7.62%
Houston Oilers	0.36%	0.08%			2.17%		0.07%	2.03%	1.93%	0.24%	1.79%		0.45%	0.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%			0.01%		0.03%		0.05%	0.03%			0.03%
Miami Dolphins			0.81%	2.70%	8.06%	3.40%	0.17%				8.14%	6.45%	2.10%	0.94%
New England Patriots			0.64%	2.26%	6.41%	2.85%	0.18%				7.11%	5.82%	1.70%	0.72%
New York Jets			0.04%	0.08%	0.32%	0.13%	0.01%				0.35%	0.36%	0.07%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	1.24%	0.33%	0.55%	2.26%		2.37%		5.45%	5.32%	0.70%		5.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.83%	0.47%			12.80%		0.38%	10.10%	10.69%	1.11%	11.90%		4.24%	1.58%
San Diego Chargers	0.23%	0.12%	0.13%	0.51%		0.59%		1.30%	1.16%	0.17%		1.41%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.01%	0.05%	0.13%		0.24%		0.36%	0.33%	0.01%		0.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.03%	1.66%	0.31%	1.06%		2.13%		0.42%	0.61%		0.28%	0.33%	1.69%
Chicago Bears	0.83%		1.77%			2.08%		0.10%	0.55%	0.55%	0.21%	0.13%		2.49%
Dallas Cowboys	7.54%	8.55%		2.87%	5.58%	15.01%	13.76%	1.42%			1.43%		2.71%
Detroit Lions	0.30%		0.62%			0.93%		0.04%	0.19%	0.25%	0.06%	0.04%		0.85%
Green Bay Packers	0.76%		1.13%			1.08%		0.12%	0.33%	0.35%	0.20%	0.20%		1.76%
Los Angeles Rams		5.67%	10.14%	2.26%	4.10%		8.80%		3.80%	5.10%		2.26%	2.14%	12.64%
Minnesota Vikings	2.73%		4.17%			3.89%		0.43%	1.82%	1.67%	0.35%	0.73%		5.78%
New Orleans Saints		0.13%	0.26%	0.05%	0.10%		0.17%		0.09%	0.07%		0.03%	0.05%	0.19%
New York Giants	0.47%	0.44%		0.17%	0.41%	0.99%	0.83%	0.02%			0.07%		0.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.72%	0.95%		0.32%	0.69%	2.30%	1.88%	0.09%			0.19%		0.33%
San Francisco 49ers		0.07%	0.10%	0.03%	0.05%		0.09%		0.11%	0.04%		0.01%	0.05%	0.19%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.23%	0.26%		0.10%	0.19%	0.65%	0.61%	0.01%			0.04%		0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.16%		0.24%			0.30%		0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	0.04%	0.06%		0.29%
Washington Redskins	1.78%	2.54%		0.96%	2.02%	4.62%	5.06%	0.37%			0.39%		1.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%		0.07%	0.02%		0.06%	0.03%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills				0.01%	0.04%	0.01%			0.01%			0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals				0.03%	0.14%			0.07%	0.11%	0.02%	0.05%	0.17%	0.02%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.01%			0.25%	0.05%		0.26%	0.20%	0.02%	0.22%	0.49%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.20%	0.06%	0.17%	0.47%		1.14%	0.04%	2.98%	2.67%	0.14%	2.79%	5.13%	0.53%	0.23%
Houston Oilers	0.09%		0.05%	0.12%	0.54%		0.01%	0.37%	0.43%	0.02%	0.35%	1.07%	0.12%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs								0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.09%	0.02%	0.27%	0.72%	3.11%	1.07%	0.04%		3.03%	0.12%	2.33%	5.56%	0.43%	0.23%
New England Patriots	0.06%	0.02%	0.12%	0.51%	2.60%	0.77%	0.03%	2.49%		0.07%	1.85%	3.80%	0.43%	0.15%
New York Jets			0.01%	0.01%	0.11%	0.04%		0.03%	0.04%		0.06%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	0.09%	0.03%	0.13%	0.33%	2.16%	0.54%	0.02%	1.39%	1.32%	0.11%		2.85%	0.25%	0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.51%	0.07%	0.32%	1.29%	8.21%	2.35%	0.03%	7.64%	6.60%	0.46%	5.90%		1.35%	0.45%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%		0.01%	0.13%	0.54%	0.09%		0.32%	0.33%	0.04%	0.42%	0.52%
Seattle Seahawks				0.01%	0.11%	0.02%		0.12%	0.03%		0.03%	0.14%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.20%	0.53%	0.08%	0.18%	0.93%	0.36%		0.07%	0.14%		0.03%	0.05%	0.29%
Chicago Bears	0.21%		0.57%	0.04%	0.05%	0.84%	0.37%	0.01%	0.12%	0.08%	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.21%
Dallas Cowboys	2.49%	2.69%		1.00%	1.59%	16.11%	6.04%	0.27%	1.23%	2.38%	0.21%	0.52%	0.39%	6.30%
Detroit Lions	0.10%	0.04%	0.16%		0.07%	0.35%	0.11%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.14%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.08%	0.30%	0.01%		0.66%	0.20%	0.03%	0.03%	0.10%		0.04%		0.16%
Los Angeles Rams	2.76%	2.31%	10.79%	0.85%	1.69%		5.70%	0.29%	0.87%	1.34%	0.17%	0.60%	0.37%	4.51%
Minnesota Vikings	0.47%	0.26%	1.97%	0.12%	0.25%	2.63%		0.10%	0.25%	0.34%	0.05%	0.10%	0.07%	0.79%
New Orleans Saints		0.04%	0.05%	0.01%		0.17%	0.07%						0.01%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.02%	0.25%		0.02%	0.21%	0.14%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.17%	0.18%	0.89%	0.04%	0.12%	0.64%	0.28%	0.01%	0.07%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.34%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%		0.06%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%			0.01%		0.01%		0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.02%	0.02%	0.21%	0.02%	0.04%	0.17%	0.13%	0.02%			0.01%		0.01%	0.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%		0.08%	0.06%		0.01%	0.02%				0.02%
Washington Redskins	0.28%	0.26%	1.83%	0.09%	0.22%	1.84%	0.67%	0.04%	0.11%	0.25%	0.03%	0.09%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons						0.03%		0.13%			0.01%			0.14%		0.15%				0.06%		0.18%	0.02%
Baltimore Colts							0.02%						0.03%		0.01%			0.01%			0.01%					0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%						0.01%						0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.01%					0.07%			0.06%			0.11%		0.11%				0.15%		0.35%	0.03%		0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%			0.01%			0.08%						0.07%		0.01%													0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%			0.02%			0.14%		0.01%	0.01%			0.17%		0.08%			0.01%			0.01%							0.05%
Dallas Cowboys		0.10%	0.04%		0.19%	0.48%		4.28%			0.89%	0.01%		4.06%		3.36%			0.08%	2.53%		7.57%	0.66%		0.16%
Denver Broncos	0.40%			0.31%			2.51%		0.13%	0.17%			2.74%		0.80%		0.04%	0.10%			0.20%			0.01%		0.12%	0.04%	0.77%
Detroit Lions						0.02%		0.05%						0.03%		0.02%			0.01%	0.03%		0.06%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers						0.01%		0.04%			0.02%			0.08%		0.08%			0.01%	0.06%		0.12%	0.01%		0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.05%			0.03%			0.38%		0.03%	0.08%			0.52%		0.14%			0.04%			0.01%			0.01%		0.03%		0.12%
Los Angeles Rams		0.06%	0.03%		0.14%	0.34%		2.58%			0.59%			2.55%		2.39%			0.11%	1.58%		4.41%	0.48%		0.08%
Miami Dolphins	0.39%			0.25%			3.21%		0.13%	0.19%			2.90%		0.81%		0.03%	0.08%			0.28%			0.03%		0.05%	0.04%	0.58%
Minnesota Vikings		0.01%			0.02%	0.06%		0.47%			0.10%			0.41%		0.41%				0.31%		0.72%	0.06%
New England Patriots	0.26%			0.21%			1.81%		0.13%	0.15%			1.93%		0.66%		0.02%	0.06%			0.19%			0.01%		0.06%		0.44%
New Orleans Saints														0.01%		0.03%				0.03%		0.01%	0.02%
New York Giants								0.03%			0.02%			0.04%		0.04%				0.01%		0.08%
New York Jets	0.02%			0.01%			0.06%		0.01%				0.04%								0.02%			0.01%				0.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.17%			0.20%			1.21%		0.02%	0.11%			1.32%		0.41%		0.02%	0.06%			0.17%			0.01%		0.06%	0.01%	0.34%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.02%			0.01%	0.02%		0.18%			0.03%			0.29%		0.11%			0.01%	0.13%		0.27%	0.02%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.78%			0.61%			7.05%		0.29%	0.47%			6.82%		1.79%		0.14%	0.29%			0.71%			0.07%		0.16%	0.12%	1.57%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%			0.03%			0.29%		0.03%	0.04%			0.32%		0.12%		0.01%				0.06%						0.02%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers					0.02%	0.01%														0.01%		0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%			0.01%			0.04%			0.02%			0.03%								0.01%							0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals					0.01%	0.01%		0.03%						0.04%		0.01%				0.05%		0.05%			0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																						0.02%	0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.01%			0.04%	0.04%		0.35%			0.02%			0.29%		0.26%				0.22%		0.44%	0.06%		0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	83.39%	50.32%	28.59%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	65.26%	45.01%	24.67%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	71.08%	36.51%	16.42%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	100.00%	57.06%	21.39%	9.72%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Denver Broncos	100.00%	41.70%	18.31%	8.92%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	72.23%	26.06%	12.38%	6.36%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	21.77%	6.40%	1.95%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	51.43%	16.30%	4.64%	1.58%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Oilers	27.77%	9.92%	2.91%	1.23%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Atlanta Falcons	48.57%	7.46%	2.13%	0.56%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins
Houston Oilers		27.77%
Miami Dolphins	72.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		48.57%
Philadelphia Eagles	51.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos				33.02%	8.68%
Houston Oilers				9.92%
Miami Dolphins					26.06%
New England Patriots	39.21%	17.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.09%		46.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		7.46%
Dallas Cowboys	41.11%			42.28%
Los Angeles Rams				35.95%	35.13%
Minnesota Vikings		9.15%	12.62%
Philadelphia Eagles			16.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos		1.88%	6.33%	2.83%	7.27%
Houston Oilers	1.06%				1.85%
Miami Dolphins	5.17%			7.21%
New England Patriots	2.91%		7.35%		11.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.25%	5.13%		25.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons			1.40%	0.73%
Dallas Cowboys			31.32%	8.83%	10.17%
Los Angeles Rams	4.31%	27.61%		4.59%
Minnesota Vikings	1.02%	2.04%	1.85%		1.49%
Philadelphia Eagles		3.42%		1.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons			0.09%	0.02%		0.09%		0.17%		0.19%
Dallas Cowboys			5.53%	0.94%		3.42%		6.49%		12.21%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	3.69%			3.62%		0.86%		0.43%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.46%			0.55%		0.11%		0.10%
Los Angeles Rams			2.99%	0.61%		2.14%		4.15%		6.53%
Miami Dolphins	0.19%	2.65%			2.50%		0.56%		0.46%
Minnesota Vikings			0.48%	0.10%		0.16%		0.52%		0.69%
New England Patriots	0.35%	4.07%			3.92%		0.87%		0.51%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.30%	0.01%		0.21%		0.34%		0.72%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.70%	10.86%			9.50%		2.05%		1.56%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 28.59% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

50.70%

Win Prob

82.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

62.24%

Win Prob

53.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

42.71%

Win Prob

52.93%

Pittsburgh Steelers 24.67% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

70.75%

Win Prob

63.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

56.94%

Win Prob

69.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

44.02%

Win Prob

47.07%

Los Angeles Rams 16.42% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

50.58%

Win Prob

74.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

75.62%

Win Prob

46.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.77%

Win Prob

40.74%

New England Patriots 9.72% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

68.72%

Win Prob

54.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

52.03%

Win Prob

30.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.87%

Win Prob

38.54%

Denver Broncos 8.92% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

79.18%

Win Prob

45.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.71%

Win Prob

33.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.37%

Win Prob

40.02%

Miami Dolphins 6.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Oilers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.23%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

58.24%

Win Prob

49.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

41.67%

Win Prob

43.66%

Minnesota Vikings 1.95% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

57.97%

Win Prob

25.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

31.87%

Win Prob

18.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

35.38%

Win Prob

25.18%

Philadelphia Eagles 1.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.69%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

73.71%

Win Prob

25.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.57%

Win Prob

31.58%

Houston Oilers 1.23% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.77%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

63.57%

Win Prob

26.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

44.72%

Win Prob

47.41%

Atlanta Falcons 0.56% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.73%

Win Prob

24.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

33.93%

Win Prob

21.35%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1978-09-03	Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1486.56	1539.53	50.46%	49.03%	+15.14	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-10	1501.70	1602.49	28.42%	71.07%	-11.35	1-1
1978-09-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-24	1490.35	1520.36	53.75%	45.74%	-19.16	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-14	1471.19	1373.98	55.37%	44.12%	-15.60	1-3
1978-10-01	New York Giants	W 23-20	1455.59	1488.87	53.28%	46.20%	+10.10	2-3
1978-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-31	1465.69	1640.55	20.58%	78.91%	-12.75	2-4
1978-10-15	Detroit Lions	W 14-0	1452.94	1386.12	66.93%	32.56%	+15.38	3-4
1978-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1468.32	1418.99	48.51%	50.98%	+11.13	4-4
1978-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-7	1479.45	1655.70	33.37%	66.12%	+23.55	5-4
1978-11-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-10	1503.00	1395.75	71.82%	27.67%	+11.59	6-4
1978-11-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1514.59	1444.78	51.45%	48.03%	+10.49	7-4
1978-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1525.08	1434.19	54.47%	45.02%	-16.81	7-5
1978-11-26	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1508.27	1424.14	69.08%	30.41%	+6.65	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-37	1514.92	1401.19	57.70%	41.79%	-39.81	8-6
1978-12-10	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1475.11	1492.80	55.50%	43.98%	+9.61	9-6
1978-12-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-42	1484.72	1436.63	48.33%	51.16%	-27.92	9-7
1978-09-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-38	1548.76	1617.80	32.28%	67.21%	-25.12	0-1
1978-09-10	Miami Dolphins	L 0-42	1523.64	1544.74	55.02%	44.47%	-44.93	0-2
1978-09-18	@ New England Patriots	W 34-27	1478.71	1555.56	31.30%	68.19%	+22.72	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-24	1501.43	1375.98	59.33%	40.16%	-19.77	1-3
1978-10-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1481.66	1502.10	55.11%	44.37%	-12.03	1-4
1978-10-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-17	1469.63	1414.13	49.40%	50.09%	+22.77	2-4
1978-10-15	New York Jets	L 10-33	1492.40	1421.84	67.40%	32.09%	-40.71	2-5
1978-10-22	Denver Broncos	W 7-6	1451.69	1606.97	36.11%	63.38%	+7.98	3-5
1978-10-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 8-26	1459.67	1591.88	24.89%	74.60%	-13.34	3-6
1978-11-06	Washington Redskins	W 21-17	1446.33	1574.17	39.83%	59.66%	+15.03	4-6
1978-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1461.36	1464.38	41.07%	58.42%	+12.74	5-6
1978-11-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-45	1474.10	1467.40	58.93%	40.56%	-34.01	5-7
1978-11-26	New England Patriots	L 14-35	1440.09	1623.12	32.51%	66.98%	-18.81	5-8
1978-12-03	@ New York Jets	L 16-24	1421.28	1487.18	32.67%	66.82%	-11.67	5-9
1978-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-35	1409.61	1680.88	12.95%	86.54%	-7.69	5-10
1978-12-17	Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1401.92	1363.59	63.23%	36.25%	-21.07	5-11
1978-09-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1403.22	1565.66	35.16%	64.33%	-14.73	0-1
1978-09-10	New York Jets	L 20-21	1388.49	1427.87	52.41%	47.08%	-6.60	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1381.89	1589.66	17.66%	81.83%	-5.91	0-3
1978-09-24	Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1375.98	1501.43	40.16%	59.33%	+19.78	1-3
1978-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-13	1395.76	1401.16	57.24%	42.25%	+20.64	2-3
1978-10-08	@ New York Jets	L 14-45	1416.40	1390.10	45.21%	54.28%	-31.75	2-4
1978-10-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1384.65	1531.60	23.33%	76.15%	-7.80	2-5
1978-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 5-0	1376.85	1424.10	51.28%	48.21%	+13.59	3-5
1978-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-41	1390.44	1478.02	29.99%	69.50%	-17.36	3-6
1978-11-05	New England Patriots	L 10-14	1373.08	1625.71	24.40%	75.09%	-6.16	3-7
1978-11-12	Miami Dolphins	L 24-25	1366.92	1620.03	24.34%	75.14%	-3.08	3-8
1978-11-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-31	1363.84	1393.08	37.47%	62.02%	-21.67	3-9
1978-11-26	New York Giants	W 41-17	1342.17	1439.50	44.10%	55.39%	+34.19	4-9
1978-12-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-14	1376.36	1379.55	41.05%	58.44%	-10.36	4-10
1978-12-10	@ New England Patriots	L 24-26	1366.00	1629.21	13.48%	86.00%	-2.41	4-11
1978-12-17	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-14	1363.59	1401.92	36.25%	63.23%	+21.07	5-11
1978-09-03	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-10	1503.67	1488.89	60.04%	39.44%	+13.16	1-0
1978-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1516.83	1460.72	49.48%	50.00%	+10.92	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-0	1527.75	1455.19	51.85%	47.64%	+26.18	3-0
1978-09-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-24	1553.93	1513.28	63.54%	35.95%	-16.00	3-1
1978-10-01	Oakland Raiders	L 19-25	1537.93	1589.66	50.63%	48.85%	-15.64	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1522.29	1489.59	46.12%	53.37%	-18.39	3-3
1978-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-16	1503.90	1595.81	29.47%	70.02%	-11.16	3-4
1978-10-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-33	1492.74	1393.43	55.67%	43.82%	-26.25	3-5
1978-10-29	Detroit Lions	L 17-21	1466.49	1400.49	66.83%	32.66%	-16.83	3-6
1978-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 29-31	1449.66	1454.16	57.37%	42.12%	-10.22	3-7
1978-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1439.44	1580.02	24.00%	75.49%	-5.25	3-8
1978-11-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-7	1434.19	1525.08	45.02%	54.47%	+16.81	4-8
1978-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-3	1451.00	1414.76	62.96%	36.53%	+15.29	5-8
1978-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-40	1466.29	1474.36	40.37%	59.12%	-29.25	5-9
1978-12-10	Green Bay Packers	W 14-0	1437.04	1477.17	52.30%	47.19%	+22.26	6-9
1978-12-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-10	1459.30	1483.19	38.20%	61.29%	+15.44	7-9
1978-09-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-24	1537.52	1430.98	71.74%	27.75%	-9.03	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1528.49	1510.75	43.99%	55.50%	-9.61	0-2
1978-09-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-28	1518.88	1589.41	47.93%	51.56%	-30.21	0-3
1978-09-24	New Orleans Saints	L 18-20	1488.67	1387.10	71.16%	28.33%	-12.68	0-4
1978-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-28	1475.99	1426.03	48.60%	50.89%	-24.50	0-5
1978-10-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1451.49	1579.14	25.38%	74.11%	-14.70	0-6
1978-10-15	New England Patriots	L 3-10	1436.79	1577.88	38.01%	61.48%	-12.69	0-7
1978-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-5	1424.10	1376.85	48.21%	51.28%	-13.59	0-8
1978-10-29	Houston Oilers	W 28-13	1410.51	1564.43	36.29%	63.20%	+30.83	1-8
1978-11-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-22	1441.34	1470.47	37.49%	62.00%	-14.20	1-9
1978-11-13	Oakland Raiders	L 21-34	1427.14	1576.43	36.91%	62.58%	-16.79	1-10
1978-11-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-7	1410.35	1649.74	15.16%	84.32%	-1.92	1-11
1978-11-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-17	1408.43	1572.27	21.64%	77.85%	-7.24	1-12
1978-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-7	1401.19	1514.92	41.79%	57.70%	+39.81	2-12
1978-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-19	1441.00	1630.44	19.25%	80.24%	+10.11	3-12
1978-12-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 48-16	1451.11	1506.66	50.08%	49.40%	+35.23	4-12
1978-09-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1489.75	1481.72	59.11%	40.38%	+21.00	1-0
1978-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-10	1510.75	1528.49	55.50%	43.99%	+9.61	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1520.36	1490.35	45.74%	53.75%	+19.16	3-0
1978-09-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-15	1539.52	1619.62	30.90%	68.59%	-9.56	3-1
1978-10-01	Houston Oilers	L 13-16	1529.96	1527.13	58.39%	41.10%	-12.74	3-2
1978-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-16	1517.22	1392.03	59.30%	40.19%	+14.34	4-2
1978-10-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-34	1531.56	1653.30	40.67%	58.82%	-22.95	4-3
1978-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-17	1508.61	1341.64	64.92%	34.57%	-30.59	4-4
1978-10-29	Buffalo Bills	W 41-20	1478.02	1390.44	69.50%	29.99%	+17.36	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-14	1495.38	1533.60	36.27%	63.22%	-9.16	5-5
1978-11-12	Denver Broncos	L 7-19	1486.22	1590.78	43.08%	56.41%	-18.82	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 45-24	1467.40	1474.10	40.56%	58.93%	+34.02	6-6
1978-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-19	1501.42	1650.40	36.95%	62.54%	+26.12	7-6
1978-12-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-47	1527.54	1470.63	49.60%	49.89%	-29.98	7-7
1978-12-10	New York Jets	W 37-34	1497.56	1498.85	57.82%	41.67%	+9.10	8-7
1978-12-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-48	1506.66	1451.11	49.40%	50.08%	-35.22	8-8
1978-09-04	Baltimore Colts	W 38-0	1617.80	1548.76	67.21%	32.28%	+25.12	1-0
1978-09-10	@ New York Giants	W 34-24	1642.92	1462.45	66.66%	32.83%	+13.11	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-27	1656.03	1613.84	47.48%	52.01%	-21.58	2-1
1978-09-24	St. Louis Cardinals	W 21-12	1634.45	1432.26	81.36%	18.13%	+6.88	3-1
1978-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 5-9	1641.33	1587.31	49.18%	50.31%	-12.40	3-2
1978-10-08	New York Giants	W 24-3	1628.93	1478.78	76.48%	23.01%	+13.32	4-2
1978-10-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-21	1642.25	1391.36	74.91%	24.58%	+5.38	5-2
1978-10-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-7	1647.63	1519.07	74.21%	25.28%	+8.46	6-2
1978-10-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-21	1656.09	1540.57	72.76%	26.73%	-30.40	6-3
1978-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-23	1625.69	1605.22	44.38%	55.11%	-14.80	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 42-14	1610.89	1495.52	57.93%	41.56%	+27.74	7-4
1978-11-19	New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1638.63	1434.29	81.54%	17.95%	+10.15	8-4
1978-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 37-10	1648.78	1535.52	72.51%	26.98%	+17.71	9-4
1978-12-03	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1666.49	1641.93	61.38%	38.11%	+12.72	10-4
1978-12-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-13	1679.21	1532.02	62.30%	37.19%	+19.92	11-4
1978-12-17	@ New York Jets	W 30-7	1699.13	1489.74	70.21%	29.27%	+17.73	12-4
1978-09-03	Oakland Raiders	W 14-6	1598.33	1596.13	58.30%	41.18%	+14.70	1-0
1978-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-12	1613.03	1526.26	53.88%	45.60%	-11.76	1-1
1978-09-17	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1601.27	1517.13	69.08%	30.41%	+13.84	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-17	1615.11	1410.39	69.66%	29.83%	+9.23	3-1
1978-10-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-7	1624.34	1445.17	79.31%	20.18%	+11.70	4-1
1978-10-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-23	1636.04	1455.93	66.61%	32.88%	-40.23	4-2
1978-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 16-7	1595.81	1503.90	70.02%	29.47%	+11.16	5-2
1978-10-22	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-7	1606.97	1451.69	63.38%	36.11%	-7.98	5-3
1978-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1598.99	1462.61	60.84%	38.65%	+8.45	6-3
1978-11-05	New York Jets	L 28-31	1607.44	1458.34	76.38%	23.11%	-16.66	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-7	1590.78	1486.22	56.41%	43.08%	+18.82	7-4
1978-11-19	Green Bay Packers	W 16-3	1609.60	1467.78	75.62%	23.87%	+10.88	8-4
1978-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1620.48	1416.44	69.57%	29.91%	-15.18	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-6	1605.30	1593.03	43.22%	56.27%	+27.46	9-5
1978-12-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-3	1632.76	1389.90	84.58%	14.91%	+8.64	10-5
1978-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1641.40	1688.56	51.29%	48.20%	-12.93	10-6
1978-09-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-13	1457.64	1420.30	63.10%	36.39%	-19.47	0-1
1978-09-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 15-7	1438.17	1366.26	51.76%	47.73%	+17.02	1-1
1978-09-17	Chicago Bears	L 0-19	1455.19	1527.75	47.64%	51.85%	-26.18	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-28	1429.01	1426.91	41.79%	57.70%	-18.26	1-3
1978-10-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-35	1410.75	1470.22	33.49%	65.99%	-19.38	1-4
1978-10-08	Washington Redskins	L 19-21	1391.37	1599.71	29.40%	70.09%	-5.25	1-5
1978-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-14	1386.12	1452.94	32.56%	66.93%	-15.38	1-6
1978-10-22	San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1370.74	1481.46	42.21%	57.28%	+29.75	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-17	1400.49	1466.49	32.66%	66.83%	+16.83	3-6
1978-11-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-17	1417.32	1570.96	22.65%	76.84%	-9.05	3-7
1978-11-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-23	1408.27	1410.58	57.67%	41.81%	+17.50	4-7
1978-11-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-29	1425.77	1593.22	21.29%	78.20%	-9.33	4-8
1978-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1416.44	1620.48	29.91%	69.57%	+15.18	5-8
1978-12-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-21	1431.62	1449.91	38.96%	60.53%	-13.01	5-9
1978-12-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-14	1418.61	1567.98	36.90%	62.59%	+43.89	6-9
1978-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-14	1462.50	1348.68	72.57%	26.92%	+14.83	7-9
1978-09-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1420.30	1457.64	36.39%	63.10%	+19.47	1-0
1978-09-10	New Orleans Saints	W 28-17	1439.77	1420.12	60.71%	38.77%	+16.23	2-0
1978-09-17	Oakland Raiders	L 3-28	1456.00	1587.70	39.29%	60.19%	-24.79	2-1
1978-09-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-3	1431.21	1503.28	31.90%	67.59%	+39.01	3-1
1978-10-01	Detroit Lions	W 35-14	1470.22	1410.75	65.99%	33.49%	+19.37	4-1
1978-10-08	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1489.59	1522.29	53.37%	46.12%	+18.40	5-1
1978-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 45-28	1507.99	1440.78	66.98%	32.51%	+16.92	6-1
1978-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-21	1524.91	1520.71	42.08%	57.41%	-19.86	6-2
1978-10-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-7	1505.05	1419.67	69.23%	30.26%	+5.40	7-2
1978-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-10	1510.45	1487.39	44.75%	54.74%	-14.93	7-3
1978-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-42	1495.52	1610.89	41.56%	57.93%	-27.74	7-4
1978-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-16	1467.78	1609.60	23.87%	75.62%	-10.87	7-5
1978-11-26	Minnesota Vikings	T 10-10	1456.91	1563.64	42.77%	56.72%	+0.43	7-5
1978-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-7	1457.34	1399.46	49.74%	49.75%	+19.83	8-5
1978-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-14	1477.17	1437.04	47.19%	52.30%	-22.26	8-6
1978-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-31	1454.91	1620.33	21.49%	78.00%	-11.20	8-7
1978-09-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-20	1539.53	1486.56	49.03%	50.46%	-15.14	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1524.39	1440.01	53.54%	45.95%	+10.04	1-1
1978-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-19	1534.43	1449.80	69.14%	30.35%	+3.83	2-1
1978-09-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-10	1538.26	1635.43	44.12%	55.36%	-11.13	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-13	1527.13	1529.96	41.10%	58.39%	+12.74	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-21	1539.87	1605.29	32.73%	66.75%	-8.27	3-3
1978-10-15	Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1531.60	1384.65	76.15%	23.33%	+7.81	4-3
1978-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-17	1539.41	1676.24	24.39%	75.10%	+25.02	5-3
1978-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-28	1564.43	1410.51	63.20%	36.29%	-30.83	5-4
1978-11-05	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 14-10	1533.60	1495.38	63.22%	36.27%	+9.16	6-4
1978-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 26-23	1542.76	1631.87	29.80%	69.68%	+15.20	7-4
1978-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 35-30	1557.96	1623.10	48.70%	50.78%	+14.31	8-4
1978-11-26	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1572.27	1408.43	77.85%	21.64%	+7.24	9-4
1978-12-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-13	1579.51	1662.48	46.15%	53.34%	-18.40	9-5
1978-12-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-12	1561.11	1431.20	59.95%	39.54%	+11.15	10-5
1978-12-17	San Diego Chargers	L 24-45	1572.26	1530.55	63.68%	35.81%	-36.75	10-6
1978-09-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-23	1430.98	1537.52	27.75%	71.74%	+9.03	1-0
1978-09-10	Houston Oilers	L 17-20	1440.01	1524.39	45.95%	53.54%	-10.03	1-1
1978-09-17	@ New York Giants	L 10-26	1429.98	1449.34	38.81%	60.67%	-19.59	1-2
1978-09-24	Denver Broncos	L 17-23	1410.39	1615.11	29.83%	69.66%	-9.23	1-3
1978-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-28	1401.16	1395.76	42.25%	57.24%	-20.64	1-4
1978-10-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-30	1380.52	1369.70	59.50%	39.99%	-30.90	1-5
1978-10-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-28	1349.62	1613.55	13.43%	86.05%	-7.98	1-6
1978-10-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-3	1341.64	1508.61	34.57%	64.92%	+30.59	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1372.23	1651.22	12.46%	87.03%	-2.73	2-7
1978-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 10-20	1369.50	1564.02	31.08%	68.41%	-12.41	2-8
1978-11-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-29	1357.09	1484.66	25.39%	74.10%	-7.85	2-9
1978-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1349.24	1451.63	43.38%	56.11%	-9.48	2-10
1978-11-26	San Diego Chargers	W 23-0	1339.76	1514.15	33.61%	65.88%	+39.79	3-10
1978-12-03	Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1379.55	1376.36	58.44%	41.05%	+10.35	4-10
1978-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-24	1389.90	1632.76	14.91%	84.58%	-8.64	4-11
1978-12-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-23	1381.26	1473.69	29.41%	70.08%	-7.43	4-12
1978-09-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-14	1595.23	1473.77	58.78%	40.71%	+7.26	1-0
1978-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-0	1602.49	1501.70	71.07%	28.42%	+11.35	2-0
1978-09-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-14	1613.84	1656.03	52.01%	47.48%	+21.59	3-0
1978-09-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 10-6	1635.43	1538.26	55.36%	44.12%	+11.12	4-0
1978-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1646.55	1399.77	74.47%	25.02%	+7.75	5-0
1978-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1654.30	1450.54	81.49%	18.00%	+9.38	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-17	1663.68	1541.86	58.83%	40.66%	+21.15	7-0
1978-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 3-10	1684.83	1399.85	87.40%	12.09%	-29.13	7-1
1978-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-15	1655.70	1479.45	66.12%	33.37%	-23.55	7-2
1978-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-23	1632.15	1414.27	82.66%	16.83%	+3.69	8-2
1978-11-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1635.84	1659.53	54.65%	44.84%	+9.79	9-2
1978-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-28	1645.63	1367.65	77.68%	21.81%	+4.77	10-2
1978-11-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 19-30	1650.40	1501.42	62.54%	36.95%	-26.12	10-3
1978-12-03	@ New York Giants	W 20-17	1624.28	1405.31	71.34%	28.14%	+6.16	11-3
1978-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-20	1630.44	1441.00	80.24%	19.25%	-10.11	11-4
1978-12-17	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1620.33	1454.91	78.00%	21.49%	+11.20	12-4
1978-09-03	@ New York Jets	L 20-33	1574.80	1397.81	66.21%	33.28%	-30.06	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Baltimore Colts	W 42-0	1544.74	1523.64	44.47%	55.02%	+44.92	1-1
1978-09-17	Buffalo Bills	W 31-24	1589.66	1381.89	81.83%	17.66%	+5.91	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-17	1595.57	1474.42	58.74%	40.75%	-27.68	2-2
1978-10-01	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-10	1567.89	1425.38	75.69%	23.79%	+11.25	3-2
1978-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-0	1579.14	1451.49	74.11%	25.38%	+14.70	4-2
1978-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-21	1593.84	1496.16	55.44%	44.05%	+14.69	5-2
1978-10-22	@ New England Patriots	L 24-33	1608.53	1590.57	44.02%	55.47%	-16.65	5-3
1978-10-29	Baltimore Colts	W 26-8	1591.88	1459.67	74.60%	24.89%	+13.34	6-3
1978-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-16	1605.22	1625.69	55.11%	44.38%	+14.81	7-3
1978-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1620.03	1366.92	75.14%	24.34%	+3.07	8-3
1978-11-20	@ Houston Oilers	L 30-35	1623.10	1557.96	50.78%	48.70%	-14.31	8-4
1978-11-26	New York Jets	L 13-24	1608.79	1455.08	76.84%	22.64%	-32.09	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Washington Redskins	W 16-0	1576.70	1517.81	49.88%	49.61%	+25.01	9-5
1978-12-10	Oakland Raiders	W 23-6	1601.71	1565.57	62.94%	36.55%	+19.02	10-5
1978-12-18	New England Patriots	W 23-3	1620.73	1631.62	56.47%	43.02%	+24.26	11-5
1978-09-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1547.04	1399.33	62.37%	37.12%	-20.78	0-1
1978-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 12-9	1526.26	1613.03	45.60%	53.88%	+11.76	1-1
1978-09-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-16	1538.02	1349.24	80.18%	19.30%	-24.74	1-2
1978-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1513.28	1553.93	35.95%	63.54%	+16.01	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1529.29	1389.58	61.29%	38.20%	+19.87	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 28-29	1549.16	1433.48	57.97%	41.51%	-7.30	3-3
1978-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-34	1541.86	1663.68	40.66%	58.83%	-21.15	3-4
1978-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 21-7	1520.71	1524.91	57.41%	42.08%	+19.86	4-4
1978-10-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-10	1540.57	1656.09	26.73%	72.76%	+30.39	5-4
1978-11-05	Detroit Lions	W 17-7	1570.96	1417.32	76.84%	22.65%	+9.06	6-4
1978-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1580.02	1439.44	75.49%	24.00%	+5.25	7-4
1978-11-19	San Diego Chargers	L 7-13	1585.27	1492.52	70.12%	29.37%	-21.63	7-5
1978-11-26	@ Green Bay Packers	T 10-10	1563.64	1456.91	56.72%	42.77%	-0.44	7-5
1978-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-27	1563.20	1536.79	61.63%	37.86%	+4.78	8-5
1978-12-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-45	1567.98	1418.61	62.59%	36.90%	-43.89	8-6
1978-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-27	1524.09	1546.55	38.39%	61.10%	-12.82	8-7
1978-09-03	Washington Redskins	L 14-16	1546.56	1531.58	60.07%	39.42%	-10.70	0-1
1978-09-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-6	1535.86	1475.72	50.06%	49.43%	+19.70	1-1
1978-09-18	Baltimore Colts	L 27-34	1555.56	1478.71	68.19%	31.30%	-22.72	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-14	1532.84	1612.49	30.96%	68.53%	+22.83	2-2
1978-10-01	San Diego Chargers	W 28-23	1555.67	1464.27	69.96%	29.53%	+8.34	3-2
1978-10-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1564.01	1514.13	64.76%	34.73%	+13.87	4-2
1978-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-3	1577.88	1436.79	61.48%	38.01%	+12.69	5-2
1978-10-22	Miami Dolphins	W 33-24	1590.57	1608.53	55.47%	44.02%	+16.66	6-2
1978-10-29	New York Jets	W 55-21	1607.23	1476.82	74.41%	25.08%	+18.48	7-2
1978-11-05	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1625.71	1373.08	75.09%	24.40%	+6.16	8-2
1978-11-12	Houston Oilers	L 23-26	1631.87	1542.76	69.68%	29.80%	-15.20	8-3
1978-11-19	@ New York Jets	W 19-17	1616.67	1461.53	63.36%	36.13%	+6.45	9-3
1978-11-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-14	1623.12	1440.09	66.98%	32.51%	+18.81	10-3
1978-12-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1641.93	1666.49	38.11%	61.38%	-12.72	10-4
1978-12-10	Buffalo Bills	W 26-24	1629.21	1366.00	86.00%	13.48%	+2.41	11-4
1978-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1631.62	1620.73	43.02%	56.47%	-24.27	11-5
1978-09-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-24	1399.33	1547.04	37.12%	62.37%	+20.79	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1420.12	1439.77	38.77%	60.71%	-16.23	1-1
1978-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1403.89	1457.63	50.34%	49.14%	-16.79	1-2
1978-09-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-18	1387.10	1488.67	28.33%	71.16%	+12.67	2-2
1978-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1399.77	1646.55	25.02%	74.47%	-7.74	2-3
1978-10-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-24	1392.03	1517.22	40.19%	59.30%	-14.34	2-4
1978-10-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1377.69	1441.15	32.98%	66.51%	+22.16	3-4
1978-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 10-3	1399.85	1684.83	12.09%	87.40%	+29.13	4-4
1978-10-29	New York Giants	W 28-17	1428.98	1496.72	48.33%	51.16%	+21.38	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1450.36	1653.95	18.01%	81.48%	-5.58	5-5
1978-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1444.78	1514.59	48.03%	51.45%	-10.49	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1434.29	1638.63	17.95%	81.54%	-10.15	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1424.14	1508.27	30.41%	69.08%	-6.65	5-8
1978-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-13	1417.49	1352.05	66.76%	32.73%	+13.71	6-8
1978-12-10	Houston Oilers	L 12-17	1431.20	1561.11	39.54%	59.95%	-11.16	6-9
1978-12-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1420.04	1369.29	48.71%	50.78%	+16.93	7-9
1978-09-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-13	1447.45	1381.25	50.94%	48.55%	+15.00	1-0
1978-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-34	1462.45	1642.92	32.83%	66.66%	-13.11	1-1
1978-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-10	1449.34	1429.98	60.67%	38.81%	+19.59	2-1
1978-09-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-10	1468.93	1445.97	61.16%	38.32%	+19.94	3-1
1978-10-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1488.87	1455.59	46.20%	53.28%	-10.09	3-2
1978-10-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1478.78	1628.93	23.01%	76.48%	-13.33	3-3
1978-10-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-14	1465.45	1400.60	66.68%	32.81%	+7.18	4-3
1978-10-22	Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1472.63	1586.15	41.82%	57.67%	+24.09	5-3
1978-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-28	1496.72	1428.98	51.16%	48.33%	-21.38	5-4
1978-11-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-20	1475.34	1394.95	52.97%	46.52%	-21.11	5-5
1978-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1454.23	1559.14	27.94%	71.55%	-6.11	5-6
1978-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-19	1448.12	1515.79	48.34%	51.15%	-8.62	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-41	1439.50	1342.17	55.39%	44.10%	-34.19	5-8
1978-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1405.31	1624.28	28.14%	71.34%	-6.15	5-9
1978-12-10	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-0	1399.16	1462.91	48.90%	50.58%	+26.28	6-9
1978-12-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-20	1425.44	1512.10	30.10%	69.39%	-15.67	6-10
1978-09-03	Miami Dolphins	W 33-20	1397.81	1574.80	33.28%	66.21%	+30.06	1-0
1978-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-20	1427.87	1388.49	47.08%	52.41%	+6.60	2-0
1978-09-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-24	1434.47	1406.29	61.87%	37.62%	-20.61	2-1
1978-09-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-23	1413.86	1574.92	21.91%	77.58%	-12.39	2-2
1978-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-28	1401.47	1629.18	27.14%	72.35%	-11.37	2-3
1978-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 45-14	1390.10	1416.40	54.28%	45.21%	+31.74	3-3
1978-10-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 33-10	1421.84	1492.40	32.09%	67.40%	+40.71	4-3
1978-10-22	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-10	1462.55	1385.98	68.15%	31.34%	+14.27	5-3
1978-10-29	@ New England Patriots	L 21-55	1476.82	1607.23	25.08%	74.41%	-18.48	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-28	1458.34	1607.44	23.11%	76.38%	+16.66	6-4
1978-11-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-17	1475.00	1502.32	37.73%	61.76%	-13.47	6-5
1978-11-19	New England Patriots	L 17-19	1461.53	1616.67	36.13%	63.36%	-6.45	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-13	1455.08	1608.79	22.64%	76.84%	+32.10	7-6
1978-12-03	Baltimore Colts	W 24-16	1487.18	1421.28	66.82%	32.67%	+11.67	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 34-37	1498.85	1497.56	41.67%	57.82%	-9.11	8-7
1978-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-30	1489.74	1699.13	29.27%	70.21%	-17.73	8-8
1978-09-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-14	1596.13	1598.33	41.18%	58.30%	-14.70	0-1
1978-09-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-20	1581.43	1523.39	49.76%	49.73%	+6.27	1-1
1978-09-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-3	1587.70	1456.00	60.19%	39.29%	+24.79	2-1
1978-09-24	New England Patriots	L 14-21	1612.49	1532.84	68.53%	30.96%	-22.83	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 25-19	1589.66	1537.93	48.85%	50.63%	+15.63	3-2
1978-10-08	Houston Oilers	W 21-17	1605.29	1539.87	66.75%	32.73%	+8.26	4-2
1978-10-15	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-6	1613.55	1349.62	86.05%	13.43%	+7.98	5-2
1978-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-27	1621.53	1423.86	68.80%	30.69%	-38.75	5-3
1978-10-29	San Diego Chargers	L 23-27	1582.78	1451.71	74.48%	25.01%	-18.76	5-4
1978-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-10	1564.02	1369.50	68.41%	31.08%	+12.41	6-4
1978-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-21	1576.43	1427.14	62.58%	36.91%	+16.79	7-4
1978-11-19	Detroit Lions	W 29-17	1593.22	1425.77	78.20%	21.29%	+9.33	8-4
1978-11-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1602.55	1461.11	75.58%	23.91%	-9.52	8-5
1978-12-03	Denver Broncos	L 6-21	1593.03	1605.30	56.27%	43.22%	-27.46	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-23	1565.57	1601.71	36.55%	62.94%	-19.02	8-7
1978-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-20	1546.55	1524.09	61.10%	38.39%	+12.82	9-7
1978-09-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-16	1473.77	1595.23	40.71%	58.78%	-7.26	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-35	1466.51	1542.28	31.44%	68.05%	-8.88	0-2
1978-09-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1457.63	1403.89	49.14%	50.34%	+16.79	1-2
1978-09-24	Miami Dolphins	W 17-3	1474.42	1595.57	40.75%	58.74%	+27.68	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-14	1502.10	1481.66	44.37%	55.11%	+12.03	3-2
1978-10-08	@ New England Patriots	L 14-24	1514.13	1564.01	34.73%	64.76%	-13.87	3-3
1978-10-15	Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1500.26	1604.96	43.06%	56.43%	+18.81	4-3
1978-10-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-14	1519.07	1647.63	25.28%	74.21%	-8.45	4-4
1978-10-29	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-16	1510.62	1371.72	75.32%	24.17%	-23.23	4-5
1978-11-05	Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1487.39	1510.45	54.74%	44.75%	+14.93	5-5
1978-11-12	New York Jets	W 17-9	1502.32	1475.00	61.76%	37.73%	+13.47	6-5
1978-11-19	@ New York Giants	W 19-17	1515.79	1448.12	51.15%	48.34%	+8.61	7-5
1978-11-26	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 14-10	1524.40	1462.29	50.35%	49.14%	+12.39	8-5
1978-12-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1536.79	1563.20	37.86%	61.63%	-4.77	8-6
1978-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-31	1532.02	1679.21	37.19%	62.30%	-19.92	8-7
1978-12-17	New York Giants	W 20-3	1512.10	1425.44	69.39%	30.10%	+15.68	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-17	1565.66	1403.22	64.33%	35.16%	+14.72	1-0
1978-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-10	1580.38	1415.32	77.97%	21.52%	+9.03	2-0
1978-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-3	1589.41	1518.88	51.56%	47.93%	+30.21	3-0
1978-09-24	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 15-9	1619.62	1539.52	68.59%	30.90%	+9.56	4-0
1978-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 28-17	1629.18	1401.47	72.35%	27.14%	+11.37	5-0
1978-10-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-7	1640.55	1465.69	78.91%	20.58%	+12.75	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-14	1653.30	1531.56	58.82%	40.67%	+22.94	7-0
1978-10-23	Houston Oilers	L 17-24	1676.24	1539.41	75.10%	24.39%	-25.02	7-1
1978-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1651.22	1372.23	87.03%	12.46%	+2.73	8-1
1978-11-05	New Orleans Saints	W 20-14	1653.95	1450.36	81.48%	18.01%	+5.58	9-1
1978-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-10	1659.53	1635.84	44.84%	54.65%	-9.79	9-2
1978-11-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 7-6	1649.74	1410.35	84.32%	15.16%	+1.92	10-2
1978-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-7	1651.66	1362.87	78.72%	20.76%	+10.82	11-2
1978-12-03	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-3	1662.48	1579.51	53.34%	46.15%	+18.40	12-2
1978-12-09	Baltimore Colts	W 35-13	1680.88	1409.61	86.54%	12.95%	+7.68	13-2
1978-12-16	@ Denver Broncos	W 21-17	1688.56	1641.40	48.20%	51.29%	+12.93	14-2
1978-09-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-20	1511.83	1426.88	53.62%	45.86%	+11.56	1-0
1978-09-10	Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1523.39	1581.43	49.73%	49.76%	-6.26	1-1
1978-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-27	1517.13	1601.27	30.41%	69.08%	-13.85	1-2
1978-09-24	Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1503.28	1431.21	67.59%	31.90%	-39.01	1-3
1978-10-01	@ New England Patriots	L 23-28	1464.27	1555.67	29.53%	69.96%	-8.34	1-4
1978-10-08	Denver Broncos	W 23-0	1455.93	1636.04	32.88%	66.61%	+40.23	2-4
1978-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1496.16	1593.84	44.05%	55.44%	-14.70	2-5
1978-10-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1481.46	1370.74	57.28%	42.21%	-29.75	2-6
1978-10-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-23	1451.71	1582.78	25.01%	74.48%	+18.76	3-6
1978-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-13	1470.47	1441.34	62.00%	37.49%	+14.19	4-6
1978-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-23	1484.66	1357.09	74.10%	25.39%	+7.86	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 13-7	1492.52	1585.27	29.37%	70.12%	+21.63	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-23	1514.15	1339.76	65.88%	33.61%	-39.79	6-7
1978-12-04	Chicago Bears	W 40-7	1474.36	1466.29	59.12%	40.37%	+29.26	7-7
1978-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-10	1503.62	1500.61	58.42%	41.07%	+26.93	8-7
1978-12-17	@ Houston Oilers	W 45-24	1530.55	1572.26	35.81%	63.68%	+36.75	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1481.72	1489.75	40.38%	59.11%	-21.00	0-1
1978-09-10	Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1460.72	1516.83	50.00%	49.48%	-10.92	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Houston Oilers	L 19-20	1449.80	1534.43	30.35%	69.14%	-3.83	0-3
1978-09-24	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1445.97	1468.93	38.32%	61.16%	-19.94	0-4
1978-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-12	1426.03	1475.99	50.89%	48.60%	+24.51	1-4
1978-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-27	1450.54	1654.30	18.00%	81.49%	-9.39	1-5
1978-10-15	New Orleans Saints	L 7-14	1441.15	1377.69	66.51%	32.98%	-22.16	1-6
1978-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1418.99	1468.32	50.98%	48.51%	-11.13	1-7
1978-10-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-38	1407.86	1562.05	22.60%	76.89%	-12.11	1-8
1978-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-21	1395.75	1503.00	27.67%	71.82%	-11.60	1-9
1978-11-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-16	1384.15	1416.06	53.48%	46.01%	-16.50	1-10
1978-11-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-31	1367.65	1645.63	21.81%	77.68%	-4.78	1-11
1978-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-24	1362.87	1651.66	20.76%	78.72%	-10.82	1-12
1978-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-24	1352.05	1417.49	32.73%	66.76%	-13.71	1-13
1978-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 6-3	1338.34	1379.63	52.13%	47.35%	+10.34	2-13
1978-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-33	1348.68	1462.50	26.92%	72.57%	-14.82	2-14
1978-09-03	San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1426.88	1511.83	45.86%	53.62%	-11.56	0-1
1978-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1415.32	1580.38	21.52%	77.97%	-9.03	0-2
1978-09-17	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1406.29	1434.47	37.62%	61.87%	+20.62	1-2
1978-09-24	Detroit Lions	W 28-16	1426.91	1429.01	57.70%	41.79%	+18.26	2-2
1978-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-28	1445.17	1624.34	20.18%	79.31%	-11.69	2-3
1978-10-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 29-28	1433.48	1549.16	41.51%	57.97%	+7.30	3-3
1978-10-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-45	1440.78	1507.99	32.51%	66.98%	-16.92	3-4
1978-10-22	Oakland Raiders	W 27-7	1423.86	1621.53	30.69%	68.80%	+38.75	4-4
1978-10-29	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1462.61	1598.99	38.65%	60.84%	-8.45	4-5
1978-11-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-29	1454.16	1449.66	42.12%	57.37%	+10.22	5-5
1978-11-12	Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1464.38	1461.36	58.42%	41.07%	-12.75	5-6
1978-11-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1451.63	1349.24	56.11%	43.38%	+9.48	6-6
1978-11-26	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-16	1461.11	1602.55	23.91%	75.58%	+9.52	7-6
1978-12-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 47-24	1470.63	1527.54	49.89%	49.60%	+29.98	8-6
1978-12-10	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-37	1500.61	1503.62	41.07%	58.42%	-26.92	8-7
1978-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-19	1473.69	1381.26	70.08%	29.41%	+7.43	9-7
1978-09-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-17	1488.89	1503.67	39.44%	60.04%	-13.17	0-1
1978-09-10	New England Patriots	L 6-16	1475.72	1535.86	49.43%	50.06%	-19.70	0-2
1978-09-17	Washington Redskins	L 10-28	1456.02	1551.16	44.41%	55.08%	-23.76	0-3
1978-09-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 12-21	1432.26	1634.45	18.13%	81.36%	-6.88	0-4
1978-10-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1425.38	1567.89	23.79%	75.69%	-11.25	0-5
1978-10-08	Baltimore Colts	L 17-30	1414.13	1469.63	50.09%	49.40%	-22.77	0-6
1978-10-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1391.36	1642.25	24.58%	74.91%	-5.38	0-7
1978-10-22	@ New York Jets	L 10-23	1385.98	1462.55	31.34%	68.15%	-14.26	0-8
1978-10-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1371.72	1510.62	24.17%	75.32%	+23.23	1-8
1978-11-05	New York Giants	W 20-10	1394.95	1475.34	46.52%	52.97%	+21.11	2-8
1978-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 16-10	1416.06	1384.15	46.01%	53.48%	+16.50	3-8
1978-11-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1432.56	1565.25	24.83%	74.65%	+29.73	4-8
1978-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-14	1462.29	1524.40	49.14%	50.35%	-12.38	4-9
1978-12-03	Detroit Lions	W 21-14	1449.91	1431.62	60.53%	38.96%	+13.00	5-9
1978-12-10	@ New York Giants	L 0-17	1462.91	1399.16	50.58%	48.90%	-26.28	5-10
1978-12-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-21	1436.63	1484.72	51.16%	48.33%	+27.92	6-10
1978-09-02	New York Giants	L 13-19	1381.25	1447.45	48.55%	50.94%	-14.99	0-1
1978-09-09	Detroit Lions	L 7-15	1366.26	1438.17	47.73%	51.76%	-17.02	0-2
1978-09-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1349.24	1538.02	19.30%	80.18%	+24.74	1-2
1978-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-9	1373.98	1471.19	44.12%	55.37%	+15.60	2-2
1978-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1389.58	1529.29	38.20%	61.29%	-19.88	2-3
1978-10-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-13	1369.70	1380.52	39.99%	59.50%	+30.90	3-3
1978-10-15	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1400.60	1465.45	32.81%	66.68%	-7.17	3-4
1978-10-22	Chicago Bears	W 33-19	1393.43	1492.74	43.82%	55.67%	+26.24	4-4
1978-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-9	1419.67	1505.05	30.26%	69.23%	-5.40	4-5
1978-11-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-26	1414.27	1632.15	16.83%	82.66%	-3.69	4-6
1978-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-34	1410.58	1408.27	41.81%	57.67%	-17.50	4-7
1978-11-19	Buffalo Bills	W 31-10	1393.08	1363.84	62.02%	37.47%	+21.68	5-7
1978-11-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-14	1414.76	1451.00	36.53%	62.96%	-15.30	5-8
1978-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1399.46	1457.34	49.75%	49.74%	-19.83	5-9
1978-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-6	1379.63	1338.34	47.35%	52.13%	-10.34	5-10
1978-12-17	New Orleans Saints	L 10-17	1369.29	1420.04	50.78%	48.71%	-16.93	5-11
1978-09-03	@ New England Patriots	W 16-14	1531.58	1546.56	39.42%	60.07%	+10.70	1-0
1978-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-30	1542.28	1466.51	68.05%	31.44%	+8.88	2-0
1978-09-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-10	1551.16	1456.02	55.08%	44.41%	+23.76	3-0
1978-09-24	New York Jets	W 23-3	1574.92	1413.86	77.58%	21.91%	+12.39	4-0
1978-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 9-5	1587.31	1641.33	50.31%	49.18%	+12.40	5-0
1978-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-19	1599.71	1391.37	70.09%	29.40%	+5.25	6-0
1978-10-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1604.96	1500.26	56.43%	43.06%	-18.81	6-1
1978-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 6-17	1586.15	1472.63	57.67%	41.82%	-24.10	6-2
1978-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-20	1562.05	1407.86	76.89%	22.60%	+12.12	7-2
1978-11-06	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-21	1574.17	1446.33	59.66%	39.83%	-15.03	7-3
1978-11-12	New York Giants	W 16-13	1559.14	1454.23	71.55%	27.94%	+6.11	8-3
1978-11-19	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-27	1565.25	1432.56	74.65%	24.83%	-29.73	8-4
1978-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-37	1535.52	1648.78	26.98%	72.51%	-17.71	8-5
1978-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 0-16	1517.81	1576.70	49.61%	49.88%	-25.01	8-6
1978-12-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1492.80	1475.11	43.98%	55.50%	-9.61	8-7
1978-12-16	Chicago Bears	L 10-14	1483.19	1459.30	61.29%	38.20%	-15.44	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1978-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1456.80	1527.78	48.12%	51.88%	+6.50	1-0
1978-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1463.30	1716.86	14.27%	85.73%	-4.73	1-1
1978-12-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1716.86	1463.30	85.73%	14.27%	+4.73	1-0
1979-01-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-0	1721.59	1647.74	52.29%	47.71%	+31.66	2-0
1979-01-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-35	1753.25	1738.12	52.18%	47.82%	-13.09	2-1
1978-12-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-33	1628.47	1701.49	32.00%	68.00%	-19.24	0-1
1978-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-9	1535.51	1644.99	27.61%	72.39%	+25.67	1-0
1978-12-31	@ New England Patriots	W 31-14	1561.18	1607.35	35.45%	64.55%	+33.37	2-0
1979-01-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 5-34	1594.55	1720.74	25.74%	74.26%	-17.37	2-1
1978-12-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-10	1631.53	1511.27	73.61%	26.39%	+16.21	1-0
1979-01-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-28	1647.74	1721.59	47.71%	52.29%	-31.65	1-1
1978-12-24	Houston Oilers	L 9-17	1644.99	1535.51	72.39%	27.61%	-25.67	0-1
1978-12-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-34	1511.27	1631.53	26.39%	73.61%	-16.21	0-1
1978-12-31	Houston Oilers	L 14-31	1607.35	1561.18	64.55%	35.45%	-33.37	0-1
1978-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-14	1527.78	1456.80	51.88%	48.12%	-6.51	0-1
1978-12-30	Denver Broncos	W 33-10	1701.49	1628.47	68.00%	32.00%	+19.25	1-0
1979-01-07	Houston Oilers	W 34-5	1720.74	1594.55	74.26%	25.74%	+17.38	2-0
1979-01-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-31	1738.12	1753.25	47.82%	52.18%	+13.08	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1978-10-22	12.09%	New Orleans Saints	1399.85	10	@ Los Angeles Rams	1684.83	3
2	1978-12-11	19.25%	Cincinnati Bengals	1441.00	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1630.44	19
3	1978-09-17	19.30%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1349.24	16	@ Minnesota Vikings	1538.02	10
4	1978-11-26	22.64%	New York Jets	1455.08	24	@ Miami Dolphins	1608.79	13
5	1978-11-05	23.11%	New York Jets	1458.34	31	@ Denver Broncos	1607.44	28
6	1978-11-26	23.91%	Seattle Seahawks	1461.11	17	@ Oakland Raiders	1602.55	16
7	1978-10-29	24.17%	St. Louis Cardinals	1371.72	16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1510.62	10
8	1978-10-23	24.39%	Houston Oilers	1539.41	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1676.24	17
9	1978-11-19	24.83%	St. Louis Cardinals	1432.56	27	@ Washington Redskins	1565.25	17
10	1978-10-29	25.01%	San Diego Chargers	1451.71	27	@ Oakland Raiders	1582.78	23
11	1978-10-26	26.73%	Minnesota Vikings	1540.57	21	@ Dallas Cowboys	1656.09	10
12	1978-12-24 *	27.61%	Houston Oilers	1535.51	17	@ Miami Dolphins	1644.99	9
13	1978-09-03	27.75%	Kansas City Chiefs	1430.98	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1537.52	23
14	1978-09-24	28.33%	New Orleans Saints	1387.10	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1488.67	18
15	1978-11-19	29.37%	San Diego Chargers	1492.52	13	@ Minnesota Vikings	1585.27	7
16	1978-11-12	29.80%	Houston Oilers	1542.76	26	@ New England Patriots	1631.87	23
17	1978-11-23	29.91%	@ Detroit Lions	1416.44	17	Denver Broncos	1620.48	14
18	1978-10-22	30.69%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1423.86	27	Oakland Raiders	1621.53	7
19	1978-09-24	30.96%	New England Patriots	1532.84	21	@ Oakland Raiders	1612.49	14
20	1978-09-18	31.30%	Baltimore Colts	1478.71	34	@ New England Patriots	1555.56	27
21	1978-09-24	31.90%	Green Bay Packers	1431.21	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1503.28	3
22	1978-10-15	32.09%	New York Jets	1421.84	33	@ Baltimore Colts	1492.40	10
23	1978-10-29	32.66%	Detroit Lions	1400.49	21	@ Chicago Bears	1466.49	17
24	1978-10-08	32.88%	@ San Diego Chargers	1455.93	23	Denver Broncos	1636.04	0
25	1978-10-15	32.98%	New Orleans Saints	1377.69	14	@ San Francisco 49ers	1441.15	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1978-09-10	44.93	Miami Dolphins	42	1544.74	44.47%	@ Baltimore Colts	0	1523.64	55.02%
2	1978-12-09	43.89	@ Detroit Lions	45	1418.61	36.90%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1567.98	62.59%
3	1978-10-15	40.71	New York Jets	33	1421.84	32.09%	@ Baltimore Colts	10	1492.40	67.40%
4	1978-10-08	40.23	@ San Diego Chargers	23	1455.93	32.88%	Denver Broncos	0	1636.04	66.61%
5	1978-12-03	39.81	@ Cincinnati Bengals	37	1401.19	41.79%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1514.92	57.70%
6	1978-11-26	39.79	@ Kansas City Chiefs	23	1339.76	33.61%	San Diego Chargers	0	1514.15	65.88%
7	1978-09-24	39.01	Green Bay Packers	24	1431.21	31.90%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1503.28	67.59%
8	1978-10-22	38.75	@ Seattle Seahawks	27	1423.86	30.69%	Oakland Raiders	7	1621.53	68.80%
9	1978-12-17	36.75	San Diego Chargers	45	1530.55	35.81%	@ Houston Oilers	24	1572.26	63.68%
10	1978-12-17	35.23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	48	1451.11	50.08%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	16	1506.66	49.40%
11	1978-11-26	34.19	@ Buffalo Bills	41	1342.17	44.10%	New York Giants	17	1439.50	55.39%
12	1978-11-19	34.02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	45	1467.40	40.56%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1474.10	58.93%
13	1978-12-31 *	33.37	Houston Oilers	31	1561.18	35.45%	@ New England Patriots	14	1607.35	64.55%
14	1978-11-26	32.10	New York Jets	24	1455.08	22.64%	@ Miami Dolphins	13	1608.79	76.84%
15	1978-10-08	31.75	@ New York Jets	45	1390.10	54.28%	Buffalo Bills	14	1416.40	45.21%
16	1979-01-07 *	31.66	Dallas Cowboys	28	1721.59	52.29%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1647.74	47.71%
17	1978-10-08	30.90	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	1369.70	39.99%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	13	1380.52	59.50%
18	1978-10-29	30.83	@ Cincinnati Bengals	28	1410.51	36.29%	Houston Oilers	13	1564.43	63.20%
19	1978-10-22	30.59	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1341.64	34.57%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	1508.61	64.92%
20	1978-10-26	30.40	Minnesota Vikings	21	1540.57	26.73%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1656.09	72.76%
21	1978-09-17	30.21	Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1589.41	51.56%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1518.88	47.93%
22	1978-09-03	30.06	@ New York Jets	33	1397.81	33.28%	Miami Dolphins	20	1574.80	66.21%
23	1978-12-03	29.98	@ Seattle Seahawks	47	1470.63	49.89%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1527.54	49.60%
24	1978-10-22	29.75	@ Detroit Lions	31	1370.74	42.21%	San Diego Chargers	14	1481.46	57.28%
25	1978-11-19	29.73	St. Louis Cardinals	27	1432.56	24.83%	@ Washington Redskins	17	1565.25	74.65%