1977 NFL Season

196 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dallas Cowboys

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1971

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Denver Broncos

3.11 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.89 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Kansas City Chiefs

2.52 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.52 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	9	5	.643	—	283	243	+40	9.22	-0.22
2	Houston Oilers	8	6	.571	1	299	230	+69	6.81	+1.19
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	6	.571	1	238	235	+3	7.64	+0.36
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	8	.429	3	269	267	+2	6.69	-0.69

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	10	4	.714	—	295	221	+74	9.36	+0.64
2	Miami Dolphins	10	4	.714	—	313	197	+116	8.45	+1.55
3	New England Patriots	9	5	.643	1	278	217	+61	8.91	+0.09
4	New York Jets	3	11	.214	7	191	300	-109	4.17	-1.17
5	Buffalo Bills	3	11	.214	7	160	313	-153	4.21	-1.21

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	12	2	.857	—	274	148	+126	8.89	+3.11
2	Oakland Raiders Playoffs	11	3	.786	1	351	230	+121	9.89	+1.11
3	San Diego Chargers	7	7	.500	5	222	205	+17	6.16	+0.84
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	9	.357	7	282	373	-91	3.98	+1.02
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2	12	.143	10	225	349	-124	4.52	-2.52

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	9	5	.643	—	255	253	+2	7.20	+1.80
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	9	5	.643	—	231	227	+4	9.16	-0.16
3	Detroit Lions	6	8	.429	3	183	252	-69	6.84	-0.84
4	Green Bay Packers	4	10	.286	5	134	219	-85	5.31	-1.31
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	12	.143	7	103	223	-120	3.09	-1.09

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	2	.857	—	345	212	+133	9.30	+2.70
2	Washington Redskins	9	5	.643	3	196	189	+7	8.06	+0.94
3	St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	.500	5	272	287	-15	8.14	-1.14
4	Philadelphia Eagles	5	9	.357	7	220	207	+13	5.69	-0.69
5	New York Giants	5	9	.357	7	181	265	-84	5.41	-0.41

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	4	.714	—	302	146	+156	9.90	+0.10
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	7	.500	3	179	129	+50	6.77	+0.23
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	5	220	260	-40	6.78	-1.78
4	New Orleans Saints	3	11	.214	7	232	336	-104	5.47	-2.47

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 37

Baltimore Colts 31

Dec 24

Denver Broncos 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Dec 24

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 20

Oakland Raiders 17

Jan 1

NFC

Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 37

Chicago Bears 7

Dec 26

Minnesota Vikings 14

Los Angeles Rams 7

Dec 26

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 23

Minnesota Vikings 6

Jan 1

Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys 27

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1708	12	8.89	+3.11	98.90%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1697	11	9.89	+1.11	85.23%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1697	12	9.30	+2.70	97.84%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1695	10	9.90	+0.10	63.49%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1656	9	9.22	-0.22	56.13%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1644	10	8.45	+1.55	88.63%	2	6	7	8	10	11	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1618	10	9.36	+0.64	74.57%	3	6	8	9	11	12	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1598	9	9.16	-0.16	57.43%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1592	9	8.91	+0.09	63.12%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1579	8	7.64	+0.36	68.86%	1	5	6	8	9	10	13
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1573	8	6.81	+1.19	83.73%	0	4	6	7	8	10	12
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1571	9	8.06	+0.94	80.02%	0	5	7	8	9	11	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1524	9	7.20	+1.80	90.85%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1522	7	6.16	+0.84	77.95%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1478	7	8.14	-1.14	35.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1477	6	6.69	-0.69	46.32%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1467	7	6.77	+0.23	66.08%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1461	5	6.78	-1.78	23.48%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1436	5	5.69	-0.69	46.88%	0	3	5	6	7	8	12
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1423	6	6.84	-0.84	42.95%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1401	5	5.41	-0.41	53.76%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1355	5	3.98	+1.02	83.58%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1346	4	5.31	-1.31	33.25%	0	3	4	5	6	8	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1342	2	4.52	-2.52	10.75%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1313	3	4.21	-1.21	34.28%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1285	3	4.17	-1.17	35.88%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1280	3	5.47	-2.47	12.38%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1262	2	3.09	-1.09	37.67%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	2-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (1.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-4 (1.1 exp.)	1-3 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.51%	4.34%	4.08%	1.79%	0.77%	0.51%	0.26%	12.24%
7–13	4.34%	5.10%	7.14%	5.36%	2.55%	0.51%	0.77%	25.77%
14–20	4.08%	7.14%	7.14%	6.12%	2.55%	0.26%	0.77%	28.06%
21–27	1.79%	5.36%	6.12%	1.53%	2.55%	0.26%	0.26%	17.86%
28–34	0.77%	2.55%	2.55%	2.55%	1.53%	0.51%	0.51%	10.97%
35–41	0.51%	0.51%	0.26%	0.26%	0.51%	—	0.26%	2.30%
42+	0.26%	0.77%	0.77%	0.26%	0.51%	0.26%	—	2.81%
Total	12.24%	25.77%	28.06%	17.86%	10.97%	2.30%	2.81%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.18	17.18	+0.00
SD	10.34	10.34	14.48
CV	0.60	0.60	—
Max	56	56	+47
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 196

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	28.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.86%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.79	9.21	+3.57
SD	8.95	7.19	11.88
CV	0.70	0.78	—
Max	35	23	+28
Min	0	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.07	15.79	+5.29
SD	12.26	7.24	11.73
CV	0.58	0.46	—
Max	45	28	+21
Min	3	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.43	22.36	-10.93
SD	7.20	13.73	12.47
CV	0.63	0.61	—
Max	24	56	+10
Min	0	0	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	14.29%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.21	18.07	+0.14
SD	9.36	13.81	17.36
CV	0.51	0.76	—
Max	31	47	+26
Min	0	0	-47

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	50.00%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	16.79	+0.21
SD	10.60	9.55	15.50
CV	0.62	0.57	—
Max	42	42	+22
Min	3	7	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.21	19.07	+0.14
SD	11.34	10.83	14.94
CV	0.59	0.57	—
Max	44	37	+37
Min	0	3	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.64	15.14	+9.50
SD	10.42	9.91	12.17
CV	0.42	0.65	—
Max	42	35	+37
Min	13	0	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	35.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	50.00%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	57.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.57	10.57	+9.00
SD	7.31	5.68	9.28
CV	0.37	0.54	—
Max	30	24	+23
Min	6	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.07	18.00	-4.93
SD	6.81	11.36	14.27
CV	0.52	0.63	—
Max	23	37	+20
Min	0	0	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	57.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	21.43%	—	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	9.57	15.64	-6.07
SD	5.58	6.90	9.77
CV	0.58	0.44	—
Max	24	26	+13
Min	0	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.36	16.43	+4.93
SD	10.62	10.14	17.09
CV	0.50	0.62	—
Max	47	34	+47
Min	7	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.07	24.93	-8.86
SD	9.07	9.65	11.71
CV	0.56	0.39	—
Max	31	44	+10
Min	6	10	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	35.71%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	10.43	+11.14
SD	8.66	8.75	12.69
CV	0.40	0.84	—
Max	35	27	+32
Min	6	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.36	14.07	+8.29
SD	11.65	10.59	14.02
CV	0.52	0.75	—
Max	55	45	+41
Min	10	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.50	16.21	+0.29
SD	10.74	11.00	16.22
CV	0.65	0.68	—
Max	42	35	+32
Min	3	3	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	21.43%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.86	15.50	+4.36
SD	6.94	10.20	11.19
CV	0.35	0.66	—
Max	31	30	+31
Min	5	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.57	24.00	-7.43
SD	11.30	10.15	11.66
CV	0.68	0.42	—
Max	42	49	+18
Min	0	10	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	12.93	18.93	-6.00
SD	7.46	10.87	13.97
CV	0.58	0.57	—
Max	27	41	+20
Min	0	0	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.64	21.43	-7.79
SD	9.61	5.94	9.99
CV	0.70	0.28	—
Max	30	33	+5
Min	0	13	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.07	16.43	+8.64
SD	11.25	9.41	15.09
CV	0.45	0.57	—
Max	44	30	+37
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	28.57%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	28.57%	—	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.71	14.79	+0.93
SD	7.98	7.39	13.28
CV	0.51	0.50	—
Max	28	24	+27
Min	0	0	-20

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	17.36	+2.86
SD	9.60	8.60	13.01
CV	0.47	0.50	—
Max	35	31	+27
Min	7	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.86	14.64	+1.21
SD	10.39	8.44	13.93
CV	0.66	0.58	—
Max	37	28	+23
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.71	18.57	-2.86
SD	9.95	11.42	12.15
CV	0.63	0.61	—
Max	35	42	+21
Min	0	3	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	—	14.29%	21.43%	42.86%	—	14.29%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	26.64	-6.50
SD	13.78	10.83	19.63
CV	0.68	0.41	—
Max	56	44	+39
Min	0	0	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.43	20.50	-1.07
SD	11.80	13.51	17.53
CV	0.61	0.66	—
Max	49	55	+28
Min	0	0	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	57.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	28.57%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.36	15.93	-8.57
SD	10.25	7.58	11.68
CV	1.39	0.48	—
Max	33	31	+19
Min	0	7	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	57.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.00	13.50	+0.50
SD	7.09	8.70	8.57
CV	0.51	0.64	—
Max	26	34	+10
Min	3	0	-18

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	12	8.89	+3.11
2	Dallas Cowboys	12	9.30	+2.70
3	Chicago Bears	9	7.20	+1.80
4	Miami Dolphins	10	8.45	+1.55
5	Houston Oilers	8	6.81	+1.19

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Kansas City Chiefs	2	4.52	-2.52
2	New Orleans Saints	3	5.47	-2.47
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	6.78	-1.78
4	Green Bay Packers	4	5.31	-1.31
5	Buffalo Bills	3	4.21	-1.21

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	6	Oct 16 – Nov 20	1 in 41
2	Chicago Bears	6	Nov 13 – Dec 18	1 in 31
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	Sep 18 – Nov 6	1 in 25
4	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 18 – Oct 23	1 in 24
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	Dec 11 – Dec 18	1 in 22

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Louis Cardinals	4	Nov 24 – Dec 18	1 in 116
2	New Orleans Saints	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 24
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	Sep 18 – Dec 4	1 in 23
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	Sep 19 – Oct 16	1 in 19
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	59.79%	24.11%	11.40%	4.70%
Cincinnati Bengals	20.06%	32.51%	27.65%	19.78%
Houston Oilers	10.61%	22.72%	30.65%	36.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.54%	20.66%	30.30%	39.50%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	44.32%	31.36%	20.85%	2.99%	0.48%
New England Patriots	30.97%	34.44%	29.43%	4.42%	0.74%
Miami Dolphins	24.24%	31.72%	36.49%	6.42%	1.13%
Buffalo Bills	0.24%	1.26%	6.71%	43.83%	47.96%
New York Jets	0.23%	1.22%	6.52%	42.34%	49.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	63.03%	30.49%	5.60%	0.78%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	33.17%	50.78%	12.72%	2.82%	0.51%
San Diego Chargers	3.21%	13.68%	48.19%	24.62%	10.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.50%	3.49%	21.02%	39.76%	35.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.09%	1.56%	12.47%	32.02%	53.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Minnesota Vikings	66.69%	22.14%	8.35%	2.59%	0.23%
Chicago Bears	16.51%	34.69%	30.43%	15.47%	2.90%
Detroit Lions	13.29%	30.43%	33.15%	19.45%	3.68%
Green Bay Packers	3.40%	11.70%	24.29%	43.62%	16.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.11%	1.04%	3.78%	18.87%	76.20%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	52.07%	27.05%	14.11%	5.34%	1.43%
St. Louis Cardinals	22.57%	30.20%	28.22%	13.47%	5.54%
Washington Redskins	21.11%	29.46%	28.04%	15.11%	6.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.32%	7.17%	16.15%	34.50%	39.86%
New York Giants	1.93%	6.12%	13.48%	31.58%	46.89%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	79.19%	15.41%	4.41%	0.99%
San Francisco 49ers	9.80%	35.48%	33.88%	20.84%
Atlanta Falcons	8.58%	35.19%	34.08%	22.15%
New Orleans Saints	2.43%	13.92%	27.63%	56.02%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Oakland Raiders	25.22%	21.43%	16.56%	11.59%	9.44%	7.28%	3.76%	2.33%	1.34%	0.52%	0.30%	0.13%	0.10%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.21%	16.45%	15.87%	12.62%	10.71%	8.81%	6.69%	4.68%	3.31%	2.11%	1.07%	0.39%	0.07%	0.01%
Baltimore Colts	18.14%	16.44%	14.11%	12.60%	10.53%	8.90%	7.46%	5.50%	3.28%	1.52%	0.80%	0.49%	0.16%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	13.10%	11.97%	12.70%	13.92%	13.37%	12.01%	8.15%	5.38%	4.63%	2.66%	0.96%	0.65%	0.41%	0.09%
New England Patriots	11.30%	12.74%	12.67%	12.38%	12.66%	10.96%	9.69%	7.67%	4.98%	2.27%	1.41%	0.76%	0.34%	0.17%
Miami Dolphins	8.32%	9.54%	10.26%	12.01%	11.56%	11.77%	12.33%	10.02%	6.35%	3.65%	2.26%	1.16%	0.63%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.54%	5.13%	7.52%	9.24%	10.70%	12.50%	12.31%	11.40%	9.91%	8.13%	5.30%	2.89%	1.16%	0.27%
Houston Oilers	1.15%	2.59%	4.28%	5.40%	7.41%	9.67%	11.17%	13.06%	12.64%	12.39%	9.93%	6.62%	2.78%	0.91%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.37%	2.28%	3.64%	5.23%	6.99%	8.35%	10.36%	13.18%	12.78%	12.96%	10.74%	7.56%	3.20%	1.36%
San Diego Chargers	0.54%	1.21%	1.85%	3.86%	4.34%	5.47%	10.01%	12.44%	16.23%	13.85%	11.19%	9.31%	5.92%	3.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%	0.12%	0.25%	0.59%	0.85%	1.54%	2.93%	5.45%	8.75%	10.96%	14.26%	19.18%	17.71%	17.37%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.03%	0.11%	0.24%	0.52%	1.01%	1.92%	3.10%	5.18%	9.90%	15.25%	17.41%	22.27%	23.04%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.05%	0.14%	0.22%	0.52%	0.85%	1.63%	2.97%	5.14%	10.12%	14.71%	16.95%	23.19%	23.46%
Seattle Seahawks	—	0.02%	0.04%	0.10%	0.40%	0.88%	1.59%	2.82%	5.48%	8.96%	11.82%	16.50%	22.06%	29.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	33.98%	23.47%	16.61%	9.14%	5.65%	4.15%	2.59%	1.84%	1.24%	0.62%	0.43%	0.23%	0.05%	—
Minnesota Vikings	20.60%	19.35%	17.76%	12.35%	9.31%	6.41%	4.67%	3.45%	2.59%	1.62%	1.04%	0.56%	0.20%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	20.99%	20.00%	15.82%	12.58%	9.05%	6.45%	5.17%	3.70%	2.65%	1.73%	0.95%	0.66%	0.20%	0.05%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.59%	9.99%	11.29%	12.71%	11.25%	10.12%	10.48%	8.06%	5.79%	4.73%	3.60%	2.26%	1.54%	0.59%
Washington Redskins	7.33%	9.08%	10.52%	12.70%	11.33%	10.34%	9.84%	8.51%	6.31%	5.41%	3.64%	2.61%	2.01%	0.37%
Chicago Bears	2.82%	4.98%	7.15%	9.05%	11.10%	11.33%	10.34%	10.44%	9.53%	7.78%	6.63%	4.47%	2.86%	1.52%
Detroit Lions	1.77%	3.67%	5.82%	7.31%	9.22%	10.49%	10.25%	11.40%	10.76%	8.85%	8.11%	6.50%	3.92%	1.93%
San Francisco 49ers	1.99%	3.11%	4.96%	7.21%	9.46%	10.73%	11.27%	10.72%	11.45%	8.89%	7.78%	6.86%	4.34%	1.23%
Atlanta Falcons	1.63%	3.06%	4.84%	7.22%	9.73%	11.10%	10.15%	10.91%	10.87%	9.14%	8.33%	7.02%	4.77%	1.23%
New Orleans Saints	0.25%	0.86%	1.18%	2.20%	3.61%	5.34%	6.37%	7.92%	10.13%	11.57%	14.64%	17.28%	13.65%	5.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.43%	1.06%	1.43%	2.65%	3.42%	4.84%	6.55%	8.12%	9.30%	12.96%	13.42%	12.91%	15.95%	6.96%
Green Bay Packers	0.28%	0.62%	1.36%	2.14%	3.30%	4.63%	5.65%	7.59%	9.77%	11.12%	13.51%	15.72%	13.08%	11.23%
New York Giants	0.34%	0.72%	1.23%	2.58%	3.33%	3.72%	6.00%	6.27%	8.01%	12.50%	12.21%	14.01%	19.20%	9.88%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.16%	0.24%	0.35%	0.67%	1.07%	1.60%	3.08%	5.71%	8.91%	18.23%	59.92%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Los Angeles Rams	17.30%	14.94%	10.96%	11.19%	7.63%	8.54%	5.23%	4.94%	3.46%	3.44%	2.24%	2.47%	1.58%	1.37%	1.12%	1.09%	0.63%	0.55%	0.42%	0.28%	0.23%	0.21%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—
Oakland Raiders	15.79%	12.15%	12.09%	9.80%	8.81%	7.17%	6.07%	5.43%	4.91%	4.05%	3.40%	2.93%	1.72%	1.39%	1.12%	0.89%	0.76%	0.52%	0.28%	0.25%	0.18%	0.13%	0.05%	0.05%	0.01%	0.05%	—	—
Dallas Cowboys	9.86%	10.01%	9.32%	9.10%	7.78%	7.84%	6.69%	6.43%	5.48%	4.45%	3.90%	3.36%	2.91%	2.47%	2.36%	1.91%	1.54%	1.31%	0.98%	0.76%	0.54%	0.35%	0.36%	0.13%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	—
Minnesota Vikings	8.94%	9.63%	8.70%	9.49%	8.19%	8.73%	6.32%	6.50%	5.21%	5.38%	3.80%	3.23%	2.93%	2.49%	2.45%	1.73%	1.40%	1.41%	1.11%	0.65%	0.66%	0.39%	0.22%	0.16%	0.12%	0.09%	0.05%	0.02%
Baltimore Colts	10.20%	9.33%	9.95%	7.76%	8.24%	6.22%	7.20%	5.55%	5.72%	4.38%	4.49%	4.12%	3.50%	3.00%	2.29%	2.13%	1.64%	1.31%	0.80%	0.73%	0.46%	0.41%	0.24%	0.14%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.74%	8.98%	9.48%	7.43%	8.47%	7.44%	6.82%	5.93%	5.86%	4.32%	4.91%	3.56%	3.49%	2.81%	2.34%	1.94%	1.73%	1.30%	1.05%	0.86%	0.57%	0.47%	0.22%	0.19%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Denver Broncos	7.09%	7.07%	6.90%	6.33%	7.56%	6.00%	7.64%	6.57%	7.12%	5.34%	5.91%	4.57%	3.82%	3.66%	2.77%	2.69%	2.07%	2.01%	1.36%	1.22%	0.61%	0.61%	0.37%	0.30%	0.18%	0.16%	0.06%	0.01%
New England Patriots	5.99%	6.58%	7.25%	6.58%	7.10%	6.60%	6.48%	6.66%	6.46%	5.59%	5.19%	5.33%	4.14%	4.32%	3.01%	3.50%	2.33%	2.03%	1.20%	1.03%	0.77%	0.74%	0.43%	0.20%	0.25%	0.12%	0.09%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	4.18%	4.54%	5.20%	5.50%	5.95%	5.67%	6.63%	5.61%	6.19%	5.70%	5.51%	5.86%	5.35%	5.44%	4.57%	4.16%	3.10%	3.10%	1.90%	1.71%	1.17%	1.07%	0.61%	0.54%	0.36%	0.29%	0.07%	0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.88%	3.93%	4.18%	5.03%	5.25%	5.89%	6.24%	6.12%	5.71%	6.01%	5.46%	5.26%	5.69%	5.12%	4.60%	4.19%	3.37%	3.00%	2.43%	2.48%	2.16%	1.25%	1.20%	0.89%	0.77%	0.52%	0.23%	0.14%
Washington Redskins	2.49%	3.92%	3.90%	4.82%	4.67%	5.90%	5.18%	6.32%	5.61%	6.29%	5.38%	6.06%	5.09%	4.89%	4.87%	4.30%	3.95%	2.93%	2.98%	2.66%	1.89%	1.73%	1.33%	1.13%	0.75%	0.62%	0.21%	0.13%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.64%	2.13%	2.79%	3.26%	4.34%	3.56%	5.01%	4.86%	5.78%	5.12%	6.03%	5.92%	6.38%	5.76%	5.44%	4.97%	4.84%	4.62%	3.88%	3.58%	2.75%	2.42%	1.73%	1.40%	0.79%	0.67%	0.20%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	0.86%	1.36%	1.64%	2.96%	2.63%	3.78%	3.93%	4.77%	4.39%	6.04%	5.35%	5.86%	5.44%	6.11%	5.66%	5.62%	5.19%	4.54%	4.58%	3.88%	3.75%	3.12%	2.67%	1.81%	1.53%	1.32%	0.79%	0.42%
Detroit Lions	0.46%	0.90%	1.21%	2.02%	2.13%	3.02%	3.13%	3.61%	3.65%	5.19%	4.47%	5.67%	5.54%	5.84%	5.68%	5.98%	5.82%	5.68%	5.30%	4.51%	4.73%	3.71%	3.68%	2.68%	2.13%	1.58%	1.04%	0.64%
San Francisco 49ers	0.55%	1.02%	1.06%	1.74%	2.02%	2.58%	2.78%	3.71%	3.60%	5.07%	5.16%	5.39%	5.37%	6.64%	5.47%	5.77%	5.71%	6.54%	4.94%	4.61%	4.29%	3.84%	3.76%	3.15%	2.16%	1.80%	0.81%	0.46%
Atlanta Falcons	0.36%	1.03%	1.22%	1.58%	1.83%	2.55%	2.86%	3.73%	3.91%	5.13%	4.92%	5.81%	4.84%	6.10%	5.66%	5.57%	5.67%	5.68%	5.32%	5.18%	4.51%	3.88%	3.75%	3.23%	2.32%	2.05%	0.88%	0.43%
Houston Oilers	0.45%	0.71%	1.43%	1.40%	2.24%	2.24%	3.04%	2.94%	4.10%	3.74%	5.27%	4.82%	5.87%	4.96%	6.50%	6.15%	5.87%	5.49%	5.72%	5.88%	4.78%	4.73%	3.48%	3.56%	1.96%	1.58%	0.67%	0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.61%	0.85%	1.13%	1.46%	1.97%	1.96%	2.82%	3.07%	3.40%	3.52%	4.29%	4.47%	5.44%	5.07%	6.15%	6.06%	6.40%	5.90%	5.72%	6.33%	5.29%	4.92%	3.65%	3.80%	2.26%	1.74%	1.04%	0.68%
San Diego Chargers	0.22%	0.30%	0.61%	0.73%	1.15%	1.24%	1.93%	1.85%	2.67%	2.03%	3.03%	3.52%	5.14%	4.18%	5.81%	5.81%	6.73%	7.48%	6.63%	6.92%	5.72%	5.87%	4.80%	4.99%	3.53%	3.22%	2.31%	1.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.18%	0.31%	0.48%	0.58%	0.83%	1.02%	1.29%	1.46%	1.94%	2.42%	2.37%	3.10%	3.67%	3.99%	4.78%	5.01%	5.45%	6.66%	6.51%	7.99%	6.69%	7.17%	6.35%	7.49%	5.83%	4.02%	2.31%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.09%	0.24%	0.46%	0.37%	0.65%	0.69%	1.13%	1.34%	2.13%	2.23%	2.70%	2.92%	3.79%	3.80%	4.37%	5.39%	5.27%	6.30%	6.23%	7.57%	7.59%	8.84%	7.19%	6.37%	6.41%	3.61%	2.26%
Green Bay Packers	0.05%	0.20%	0.14%	0.31%	0.36%	0.68%	0.80%	1.03%	1.23%	1.77%	2.09%	2.41%	2.88%	3.15%	3.55%	4.39%	5.06%	5.29%	5.68%	6.19%	6.88%	7.20%	7.50%	7.53%	6.48%	6.81%	5.89%	4.45%
New York Giants	0.13%	0.10%	0.22%	0.40%	0.37%	0.69%	0.97%	1.20%	1.46%	1.93%	2.00%	1.89%	2.67%	3.09%	3.46%	3.73%	4.62%	4.16%	6.42%	6.53%	7.01%	6.44%	7.92%	7.28%	8.73%	7.35%	5.61%	3.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	—	0.03%	0.12%	0.15%	0.07%	0.32%	0.29%	0.50%	0.49%	0.80%	0.72%	1.48%	1.52%	2.62%	2.62%	4.01%	4.26%	5.05%	5.31%	5.75%	7.40%	8.05%	10.26%	9.69%	9.85%	9.60%	9.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	—	0.10%	0.06%	0.06%	0.16%	0.27%	0.30%	0.53%	0.61%	0.98%	0.89%	1.67%	1.80%	2.37%	3.01%	4.15%	4.83%	5.73%	7.51%	8.16%	9.58%	10.87%	12.30%	11.83%	12.20%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.06%	0.11%	0.16%	0.22%	0.30%	0.56%	0.41%	0.80%	1.00%	1.38%	1.70%	2.14%	3.10%	3.91%	4.91%	6.02%	7.81%	7.68%	9.30%	10.26%	12.75%	12.92%	12.34%
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	0.02%	0.04%	—	0.02%	0.07%	0.24%	0.20%	0.47%	0.55%	0.70%	0.91%	1.10%	1.51%	2.02%	3.01%	3.73%	4.28%	5.09%	6.41%	7.18%	9.04%	11.03%	12.07%	14.88%	15.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%	0.05%	0.15%	0.19%	0.13%	0.23%	0.36%	0.56%	0.64%	0.63%	1.05%	1.50%	1.69%	2.90%	3.10%	4.85%	5.08%	9.69%	10.69%	23.11%	33.27%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Oakland Raiders	25.22%	21.28%	16.53%	11.78%	25.19%
Baltimore Colts	18.14%	15.98%	10.20%	15.09%	40.59%
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.21%	17.99%	24.59%	6.31%	33.90%
Denver Broncos	13.10%	11.25%	8.82%	17.43%	49.40%
New England Patriots	11.30%	11.88%	7.79%	15.92%	53.11%
Miami Dolphins	8.32%	9.02%	6.90%	14.03%	61.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.54%	5.82%	10.70%	6.73%	73.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.37%	2.48%	5.69%	3.75%	86.71%
Houston Oilers	1.15%	2.83%	6.63%	4.14%	85.25%
San Diego Chargers	0.54%	1.20%	1.47%	3.84%	92.95%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.08%	0.10%	0.21%	99.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%	0.13%	0.33%	0.52%	98.98%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.04%	0.18%	0.15%	99.61%
Seattle Seahawks	—	0.02%	0.07%	0.10%	99.81%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	33.98%	25.05%	20.16%	5.70%	15.11%
Dallas Cowboys	20.99%	19.22%	11.86%	15.92%	32.01%
Minnesota Vikings	20.60%	20.58%	25.51%	6.61%	26.70%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.59%	8.78%	6.20%	16.81%	60.62%
Washington Redskins	7.33%	7.97%	5.81%	16.82%	62.07%
Chicago Bears	2.82%	5.33%	8.36%	7.97%	75.52%
San Francisco 49ers	1.99%	3.24%	4.57%	7.23%	82.97%
Detroit Lions	1.77%	3.71%	7.81%	6.19%	80.52%
Atlanta Falcons	1.63%	2.85%	4.10%	7.70%	83.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.43%	0.97%	0.92%	2.94%	94.74%
New York Giants	0.34%	0.67%	0.92%	2.52%	95.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.28%	0.74%	2.38%	1.46%	95.14%
New Orleans Saints	0.25%	0.86%	1.32%	2.02%	95.55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	99.78%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	84.89%	58.52%	37.11%	20.41%
Oakland Raiders	74.81%	47.55%	27.49%	15.77%
Dallas Cowboys	67.99%	44.96%	27.17%	14.37%
Denver Broncos	50.60%	31.16%	18.55%	10.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	66.10%	34.75%	17.70%	9.21%
Minnesota Vikings	73.30%	37.44%	17.02%	6.78%
Baltimore Colts	59.41%	27.73%	12.56%	5.94%
Miami Dolphins	38.27%	18.10%	8.37%	4.17%
New England Patriots	46.89%	19.67%	7.78%	3.18%
Washington Redskins	37.93%	17.43%	6.74%	2.71%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.79%	9.70%	3.86%	1.64%
St. Louis Cardinals	39.38%	13.65%	4.10%	1.25%
Chicago Bears	24.48%	8.69%	3.05%	0.98%
Houston Oilers	14.75%	5.28%	1.94%	0.91%
Atlanta Falcons	16.28%	5.04%	1.63%	0.44%
San Francisco 49ers	17.03%	5.43%	1.45%	0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	13.29%	3.19%	0.90%	0.32%
San Diego Chargers	7.05%	2.57%	0.78%	0.30%
Detroit Lions	19.48%	4.70%	0.93%	0.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.26%	1.47%	0.39%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	4.45%	0.61%	0.08%	0.01%
New York Giants	4.45%	1.09%	0.16%	0.01%
New York Jets	0.44%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	4.86%	0.94%	0.16%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.02%	0.15%	0.04%	—
Buffalo Bills	0.39%	0.04%	0.01%	—
Seattle Seahawks	0.19%	0.05%	—	—
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	0.03%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			3.55%	2.44%	4.80%	2.33%	0.24%				6.66%	6.37%	1.31%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills			0.02%								0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.41%	0.02%			1.23%		0.06%	1.13%	2.23%	0.04%	2.21%		0.34%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.76%				0.48%		0.01%	0.51%	0.67%	0.01%	0.64%		0.11%
Denver Broncos	6.96%	0.07%	2.93%	2.07%		1.73%		4.64%	6.07%	0.10%		6.59%
Houston Oilers	1.28%				0.75%		0.01%	0.70%	1.13%		1.24%		0.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.04%			0.02%		0.01%		0.02%	0.02%			0.04%
Miami Dolphins			2.49%	1.29%	3.06%	1.03%	0.18%				4.70%	4.73%	0.61%	0.01%
New England Patriots			2.89%	1.16%	3.63%	1.31%	0.14%				4.94%	4.84%	0.74%	0.02%
New York Jets			0.03%								0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	11.09%	0.16%	4.89%	3.00%		2.89%		7.57%	9.53%	0.16%		8.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.36%	0.09%			5.49%		0.23%	5.30%	7.15%	0.05%	6.84%		1.19%	0.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.75%		0.29%	0.12%		0.17%		0.29%	0.42%	0.02%		0.51%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.01%						0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.35%	0.90%	0.45%	0.11%		1.17%		0.14%	0.16%		1.08%		0.68%
Chicago Bears	0.72%		1.47%			1.78%		0.24%	0.24%	0.28%	0.69%	1.77%		1.50%
Dallas Cowboys	4.10%	5.44%		5.00%	1.35%	10.54%	13.23%	1.34%			3.88%		0.08%
Detroit Lions	0.36%		0.86%			0.88%		0.11%	0.16%	0.14%	0.37%	1.04%		0.78%
Green Bay Packers	0.11%		0.12%			0.13%		0.05%	0.06%	0.08%	0.10%	0.19%		0.10%
Los Angeles Rams		5.35%	11.04%	5.18%	1.15%		10.02%		1.51%	1.85%		12.28%	0.05%	10.09%
Minnesota Vikings	2.86%		7.65%			5.40%		1.15%	1.14%	1.11%	3.39%	8.13%		6.61%
New Orleans Saints		0.02%	0.06%	0.07%	0.07%		0.17%		0.01%			0.18%		0.03%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.15%		0.18%	0.06%	0.21%	0.35%	0.05%			0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.12%		0.15%	0.09%	0.36%	0.50%	0.05%			0.10%
San Francisco 49ers		0.75%	0.92%	0.52%	0.09%		1.12%		0.10%	0.16%		1.06%		0.71%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.35%	1.53%		1.46%	0.56%	2.87%	4.05%	0.43%			1.37%		0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.01%			0.01%				0.01%
Washington Redskins	1.60%	2.08%		1.77%	0.44%	4.19%	5.25%	0.42%			1.65%		0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.01%	0.85%	0.25%	1.93%	0.43%	0.01%	1.33%	1.75%		3.47%	2.33%	0.20%
Buffalo Bills								0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.56%			0.04%	0.57%	0.09%	0.01%	0.42%	0.46%		1.11%	0.54%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.11%		0.06%		0.12%	0.05%		0.15%	0.04%		0.24%	0.12%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	3.01%		1.17%	0.48%		0.63%	0.02%	1.73%	2.08%	0.02%	5.17%	3.94%	0.29%	0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.27%		0.09%	0.03%	0.31%			0.17%	0.17%		0.54%	0.30%	0.05%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs				0.01%				0.01%			0.02%
Miami Dolphins	1.39%		0.42%	0.22%	1.14%	0.35%	0.02%		1.03%		2.12%	1.57%	0.10%	0.01%
New England Patriots	1.51%		0.32%	0.20%	0.80%	0.28%	0.02%	0.93%			2.01%	1.49%	0.21%	0.01%
New York Jets			0.01%						0.01%
Oakland Raiders	4.92%		1.99%	0.68%	4.96%	0.93%	0.02%	2.96%	3.84%	0.01%		6.62%	0.56%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.27%	0.02%	0.88%	0.33%	2.71%	0.56%	0.01%	1.99%	2.38%	0.01%	5.22%		0.31%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	0.13%		0.05%	0.05%	0.07%	0.02%		0.03%	0.13%		0.16%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.12%	0.32%	0.07%	0.05%	0.38%	0.32%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.14%	0.01%	0.16%
Chicago Bears	0.10%		0.64%	0.03%		0.99%	0.50%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.14%	0.21%		0.32%
Dallas Cowboys	0.84%	1.54%		0.89%	0.14%	9.84%	6.01%	0.12%	0.22%	0.27%	0.96%	2.68%		3.66%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.03%	0.17%			0.27%	0.14%	0.01%		0.04%	0.01%	0.10%		0.13%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%		0.05%			0.04%			0.01%			0.01%		0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	1.53%	2.35%	9.87%	1.72%	0.38%		10.87%	0.21%	0.40%	0.43%	1.51%	3.91%		3.93%
Minnesota Vikings	0.52%	0.95%	3.64%	0.61%	0.13%	6.49%		0.07%	0.11%	0.20%	0.75%	1.71%	0.01%	1.83%
New Orleans Saints			0.05%			0.02%								0.01%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%		0.02%	0.02%				0.03%			0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.01%	0.10%	0.01%		0.09%	0.06%				0.02%	0.06%		0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.17%	0.34%	0.06%	0.01%	0.32%	0.29%		0.01%	0.01%		0.09%		0.10%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.12%	0.13%	0.90%	0.17%	0.02%	1.12%	0.80%	0.02%	0.06%	0.04%	0.25%			0.47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers							0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.18%	0.32%	1.68%	0.20%	0.05%	1.83%	1.40%	0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	0.27%	0.64%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.05%			0.03%	0.01%		0.06%			0.03%			0.02%		0.02%				0.15%		0.07%
Baltimore Colts	0.11%			0.33%			1.46%		0.05%	0.01%			1.94%		1.20%		0.01%	0.02%			0.03%			0.13%	0.30%		0.35%
Chicago Bears		0.14%			0.05%			0.16%			0.02%			0.06%		0.16%				0.21%		0.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%			0.08%			0.34%		0.01%	0.01%			0.52%		0.37%		0.01%				0.04%			0.03%	0.07%		0.10%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%			0.01%			0.01%		0.01%				0.13%		0.07%						0.01%			0.01%	0.05%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys		1.98%	0.01%		0.72%	0.17%		2.33%			0.31%	0.01%		1.45%		1.40%			0.01%	3.42%		2.37%	0.19%
Denver Broncos	0.19%			0.46%			2.64%		0.13%	0.03%			3.57%		2.13%		0.01%	0.02%			0.03%			0.20%	0.62%	0.01%	0.79%
Detroit Lions		0.05%			0.02%	0.01%		0.03%						0.01%		0.04%				0.08%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers								0.01%
Houston Oilers	0.02%			0.04%			0.23%		0.02%				0.30%		0.15%			0.01%			0.02%			0.01%	0.04%		0.07%
Los Angeles Rams		2.89%			0.92%	0.21%		3.38%			0.42%	0.01%		1.67%		1.72%				5.02%		3.99%	0.18%
Miami Dolphins	0.10%			0.14%			0.99%		0.07%	0.01%			1.40%		0.79%		0.01%				0.02%			0.09%	0.21%		0.34%
Minnesota Vikings		0.88%			0.27%	0.11%		1.18%			0.14%	0.02%		0.54%		0.70%				1.66%		1.20%	0.08%
New England Patriots	0.07%			0.14%			0.74%		0.05%	0.01%			0.92%		0.64%		0.01%				0.01%			0.10%	0.20%		0.29%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%
New York Giants		0.01%
New York Jets							0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.43%			0.59%			3.93%		0.23%	0.07%			4.90%		2.98%			0.03%			0.11%			0.29%	0.83%		1.38%
Philadelphia Eagles																0.03%				0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.18%			0.28%			2.36%		0.08%	0.01%			2.95%		1.85%		0.02%	0.06%			0.06%			0.16%	0.51%		0.69%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%						0.09%						0.07%		0.06%			0.01%			0.01%			0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		0.08%			0.02%	0.01%		0.05%						0.03%		0.05%				0.11%		0.07%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.21%			0.05%	0.03%		0.16%			0.03%			0.13%		0.14%				0.26%		0.21%	0.03%
Washington Redskins		0.32%			0.14%	0.03%		0.36%			0.08%			0.29%		0.34%				0.79%		0.36%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	78.62%	48.19%	24.25%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	65.93%	41.74%	22.95%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	69.91%	34.08%	17.34%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	53.33%	23.16%	12.80%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.07%	16.94%	8.56%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	46.67%	18.16%	7.80%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	30.09%	11.91%	4.39%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Chicago Bears	21.38%	5.82%	1.91%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts			46.67%
Denver Broncos				65.93%
Oakland Raiders	53.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers		34.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears		21.38%
Dallas Cowboys	78.62%
Los Angeles Rams				69.91%
Minnesota Vikings			30.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		9.89%		8.27%
Denver Broncos	21.14%		20.60%
Oakland Raiders		14.30%		8.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.37%		9.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears			3.32%	2.50%
Dallas Cowboys			32.51%	15.68%
Los Angeles Rams	11.00%	23.08%
Minnesota Vikings	4.56%	7.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		0.62%	3.60%		2.45%	1.13%
Chicago Bears	0.46%			0.74%			0.32%	0.39%
Dallas Cowboys	5.36%			9.21%			5.35%	4.33%
Denver Broncos		1.53%	10.49%		7.64%	3.29%
Los Angeles Rams	3.69%			7.05%			3.71%	2.89%
Minnesota Vikings	0.85%			1.79%			0.98%	0.77%
Oakland Raiders		1.05%	5.92%		3.91%	1.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.71%	3.93%		2.74%	1.18%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Dallas Cowboys 24.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

78.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

67.46%

Win Prob

58.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

37.98%

Win Prob

46.75%

Denver Broncos 22.95% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

50.65%

Win Prob

68.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

45.71%

Win Prob

53.25%

Los Angeles Rams 17.34% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

67.72%

Win Prob

41.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

40.66%

Win Prob

47.99%

Oakland Raiders 12.80% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

61.74%

Win Prob

40.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

46.25%

Win Prob

52.53%

Pittsburgh Steelers 8.56% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

56.49%

Win Prob

51.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

45.91%

Win Prob

47.58%

Baltimore Colts 7.80% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.67%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

54.46%

Win Prob

31.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

46.15%

Win Prob

40.18%

Minnesota Vikings 4.39% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.09%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

61.71%

Win Prob

31.91%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

40.77%

Win Prob

35.24%

Chicago Bears 1.91% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

57.04%

Win Prob

23.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.74%

Win Prob

32.60%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1977-09-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-6	1406.12	1606.01	29.98%	69.72%	+32.94	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-10	1439.06	1546.84	28.19%	71.51%	-8.05	1-1
1977-10-02	New York Giants	W 17-3	1431.01	1441.67	56.00%	43.71%	+23.32	2-1
1977-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 7-0	1454.33	1464.31	40.81%	58.90%	+22.20	3-1
1977-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-3	1476.53	1355.97	59.36%	40.34%	-14.65	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-10	1461.88	1457.35	42.84%	56.86%	+19.84	4-2
1977-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1481.72	1601.89	40.39%	59.31%	-15.24	4-3
1977-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-10	1466.48	1470.28	56.97%	42.74%	-21.47	4-4
1977-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 17-6	1445.01	1475.84	53.12%	46.58%	+22.02	5-4
1977-11-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-21	1467.03	1360.38	57.42%	42.28%	-8.18	5-5
1977-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-0	1458.85	1199.61	76.37%	23.33%	+13.73	6-5
1977-12-04	New England Patriots	L 10-16	1472.58	1578.17	42.43%	57.27%	-14.82	6-6
1977-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-23	1457.76	1701.70	15.20%	84.50%	-8.68	6-7
1977-12-18	New Orleans Saints	W 35-7	1449.08	1297.32	76.34%	23.36%	+17.64	7-7
1977-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-14	1578.34	1320.62	76.22%	23.49%	+12.98	1-0
1977-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 20-12	1591.32	1350.87	74.38%	25.32%	+10.23	2-0
1977-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1601.55	1379.18	82.83%	16.88%	+4.17	3-0
1977-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 45-28	1605.72	1577.33	61.43%	38.27%	+22.51	4-0
1977-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-6	1628.23	1398.84	73.16%	26.54%	+12.56	5-0
1977-10-23	@ New England Patriots	L 3-17	1640.79	1581.32	50.70%	49.01%	-27.03	5-1
1977-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-21	1613.76	1675.12	48.73%	50.97%	+22.97	6-1
1977-11-07	Washington Redskins	W 10-3	1636.73	1534.63	70.84%	28.86%	+10.89	7-1
1977-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1647.62	1346.44	80.41%	19.29%	+11.69	8-1
1977-11-20	New York Jets	W 33-12	1659.31	1316.82	90.47%	9.23%	+6.04	9-1
1977-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-27	1665.35	1681.91	39.90%	59.81%	-21.29	9-2
1977-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-17	1644.06	1632.01	43.90%	55.80%	-20.76	9-3
1977-12-11	Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1623.30	1418.64	81.35%	18.35%	-20.07	9-4
1977-12-18	New England Patriots	W 30-24	1603.23	1607.45	56.91%	42.80%	+14.95	10-4
1977-09-18	Miami Dolphins	L 0-13	1414.99	1516.97	42.94%	56.77%	-22.07	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-26	1392.92	1563.12	21.51%	78.19%	-13.74	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-17	1379.18	1601.55	16.88%	82.83%	-4.17	0-3
1977-10-09	New York Jets	L 19-24	1375.01	1358.79	59.76%	39.94%	-19.04	0-4
1977-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 3-0	1355.97	1476.53	40.34%	59.36%	+14.65	1-4
1977-10-23	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-27	1370.62	1509.29	37.86%	61.85%	-17.91	1-5
1977-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-56	1352.71	1284.35	51.97%	47.73%	-46.25	1-6
1977-11-06	@ New England Patriots	W 24-14	1306.46	1615.71	10.96%	88.74%	+39.98	2-6
1977-11-13	Baltimore Colts	L 13-31	1346.44	1647.62	19.29%	80.41%	-11.68	2-7
1977-11-20	New England Patriots	L 7-20	1334.76	1554.36	27.66%	72.05%	-14.23	2-8
1977-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-34	1320.53	1683.48	8.29%	91.42%	-5.43	2-9
1977-12-04	Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1315.10	1521.68	29.18%	70.52%	-13.17	2-10
1977-12-11	@ New York Jets	W 14-10	1301.93	1323.06	39.27%	60.44%	+17.22	3-10
1977-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-31	1319.15	1638.31	10.42%	89.29%	-6.13	3-11
1977-09-18	Detroit Lions	W 30-20	1489.42	1492.04	57.13%	42.57%	+19.20	1-0
1977-09-25	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-16	1508.62	1540.78	37.76%	61.94%	-9.33	1-1
1977-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 24-42	1499.29	1389.46	71.75%	27.95%	-43.37	1-2
1977-10-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1455.92	1606.90	36.21%	63.50%	+9.05	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-22	1464.97	1632.27	21.80%	77.91%	-7.62	2-3
1977-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-16	1457.35	1461.88	56.86%	42.84%	-19.85	2-4
1977-10-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-0	1437.50	1421.02	44.53%	55.17%	+40.09	3-4
1977-11-06	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-47	1477.59	1499.71	39.13%	60.57%	-38.26	3-5
1977-11-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-27	1439.33	1405.41	62.18%	37.53%	+5.35	4-5
1977-11-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-7	1444.68	1607.20	34.68%	65.02%	+16.04	5-5
1977-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-14	1460.72	1460.21	42.27%	57.43%	+33.74	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1494.46	1185.88	81.07%	18.64%	+8.41	7-5
1977-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 21-10	1502.87	1344.72	77.00%	22.71%	+10.76	8-5
1977-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 12-9	1513.63	1411.24	56.82%	42.88%	+10.59	9-5
1977-09-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-13	1595.23	1495.98	70.51%	29.20%	-31.76	0-1
1977-09-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 42-20	1563.47	1307.63	85.36%	14.34%	+9.61	1-1
1977-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 3-24	1573.08	1485.27	54.76%	44.95%	-35.76	1-2
1977-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-7	1537.32	1430.78	57.41%	42.29%	+19.07	2-2
1977-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-20	1556.39	1649.96	29.88%	69.83%	-10.44	2-3
1977-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 13-24	1545.95	1648.28	42.89%	56.82%	-20.28	2-4
1977-10-30	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1525.67	1509.58	59.74%	39.96%	+9.87	3-4
1977-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 10-7	1535.54	1550.76	40.08%	59.62%	+14.71	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-42	1550.25	1576.04	38.63%	61.07%	-31.16	4-5
1977-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1519.09	1589.53	47.43%	52.27%	+18.24	5-5
1977-11-27	New York Giants	W 30-13	1537.33	1392.01	75.67%	24.03%	+14.15	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-7	1551.48	1379.53	66.24%	33.46%	+21.35	7-5
1977-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1572.83	1671.33	43.43%	56.27%	+21.21	8-5
1977-12-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 16-21	1594.04	1557.58	47.39%	52.32%	-15.10	8-6
1977-09-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-3	1495.98	1595.23	29.20%	70.51%	+31.76	1-0
1977-09-26	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1527.74	1585.57	49.24%	50.46%	+12.46	2-0
1977-10-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-28	1540.20	1669.97	39.07%	60.63%	-20.85	2-1
1977-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 10-26	1519.35	1694.11	33.11%	66.60%	-18.89	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-23	1500.46	1533.13	37.69%	62.01%	+8.83	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-16	1509.29	1370.62	61.85%	37.86%	+17.91	4-2
1977-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-7	1527.20	1410.31	72.56%	27.14%	+23.56	5-2
1977-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-10	1550.76	1535.54	59.62%	40.08%	-14.71	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-35	1536.05	1628.92	29.96%	69.74%	-8.55	5-4
1977-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 21-7	1527.50	1414.06	58.37%	41.33%	+22.05	6-4
1977-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-9	1549.55	1669.57	40.41%	59.29%	-17.29	6-5
1977-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-37	1532.26	1504.10	46.20%	53.51%	-31.58	6-6
1977-12-11	Houston Oilers	L 15-19	1500.68	1542.90	51.49%	48.22%	-14.68	6-7
1977-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 19-20	1486.00	1346.42	61.97%	37.73%	-8.83	6-8
1977-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 16-10	1576.89	1628.25	35.20%	64.50%	+22.50	1-0
1977-09-25	New York Giants	W 41-21	1599.39	1457.23	75.34%	24.36%	+15.56	2-0
1977-10-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-7	1614.95	1281.78	90.02%	9.69%	+5.53	3-0
1977-10-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-24	1620.48	1531.38	54.94%	44.76%	+15.63	4-0
1977-10-16	Washington Redskins	W 34-16	1636.11	1582.48	64.80%	34.91%	+21.13	5-0
1977-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-10	1657.24	1430.38	72.87%	26.83%	+9.38	6-0
1977-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 37-0	1666.62	1457.99	81.69%	18.01%	+15.64	7-0
1977-11-06	@ New York Giants	W 24-10	1682.26	1411.17	77.57%	22.13%	+11.83	8-0
1977-11-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1694.09	1606.84	69.06%	30.65%	-26.03	8-1
1977-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-28	1668.06	1637.47	46.55%	53.16%	-25.70	8-2
1977-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-7	1642.36	1537.74	57.14%	42.56%	+16.06	9-2
1977-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1658.42	1410.72	84.78%	14.93%	+6.74	10-2
1977-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 42-35	1665.16	1485.75	67.19%	32.52%	+12.27	11-2
1977-12-18	Denver Broncos	W 14-6	1677.43	1728.13	50.27%	49.43%	+19.93	12-2
1977-09-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 7-0	1546.63	1557.26	56.00%	43.70%	+16.49	1-0
1977-09-25	Buffalo Bills	W 26-6	1563.12	1392.92	78.19%	21.51%	+13.73	2-0
1977-10-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-13	1576.85	1298.02	78.33%	21.37%	+10.12	3-0
1977-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1586.97	1410.80	78.76%	20.94%	+11.96	4-0
1977-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-7	1598.93	1713.00	27.47%	72.24%	+49.35	5-0
1977-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-13	1648.28	1545.95	56.82%	42.89%	+20.28	6-0
1977-10-30	Oakland Raiders	L 14-24	1668.56	1666.53	57.79%	41.92%	-26.03	6-1
1977-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-7	1642.53	1652.15	56.14%	43.56%	+23.24	7-1
1977-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1665.77	1481.31	67.82%	31.88%	+7.87	8-1
1977-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-7	1673.64	1400.06	77.82%	21.89%	+8.27	9-1
1977-11-27	Baltimore Colts	W 27-13	1681.91	1665.35	59.81%	39.90%	+21.29	10-1
1977-12-04	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-14	1703.20	1559.68	62.50%	37.20%	+16.78	11-1
1977-12-11	San Diego Chargers	W 17-9	1719.98	1535.69	79.53%	20.18%	+8.15	12-1
1977-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-14	1728.13	1677.43	49.43%	50.27%	-19.93	12-2
1977-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-30	1492.04	1489.42	42.57%	57.13%	-19.20	0-1
1977-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 23-19	1472.84	1398.67	67.44%	32.27%	+9.21	1-1
1977-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-13	1482.05	1417.80	66.17%	33.53%	+9.57	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1491.62	1622.61	25.57%	74.14%	-9.66	2-2
1977-10-16	Green Bay Packers	W 10-6	1481.96	1411.71	66.94%	32.76%	+9.35	3-2
1977-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-28	1491.31	1429.60	51.02%	48.68%	-33.32	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-37	1457.99	1666.62	18.01%	81.69%	-15.64	3-4
1977-11-06	San Diego Chargers	W 20-0	1442.35	1514.80	47.14%	52.56%	+33.49	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-17	1475.84	1445.01	46.58%	53.12%	-22.02	4-5
1977-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-7	1453.82	1206.00	84.79%	14.92%	+6.39	5-5
1977-11-24	Chicago Bears	L 14-31	1460.21	1460.72	57.43%	42.27%	-33.73	5-6
1977-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-10	1426.48	1336.88	55.01%	44.69%	-7.84	5-7
1977-12-11	@ Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1418.64	1623.30	18.35%	81.35%	+20.07	6-7
1977-12-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-30	1438.71	1582.53	37.16%	62.54%	-15.90	6-8
1977-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-20	1444.43	1413.81	46.55%	53.15%	+15.15	1-0
1977-09-25	Houston Oilers	L 10-16	1459.58	1497.70	52.08%	47.62%	-18.18	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-19	1441.40	1611.99	21.48%	78.23%	-10.62	1-2
1977-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1430.78	1537.32	42.29%	57.41%	-19.07	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-10	1411.71	1481.96	32.76%	66.94%	-9.35	1-4
1977-10-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-0	1402.36	1251.97	63.42%	36.28%	+18.66	2-4
1977-10-30	Chicago Bears	L 0-26	1421.02	1437.50	55.17%	44.53%	-40.08	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-20	1380.94	1386.75	41.39%	58.31%	-18.67	2-6
1977-11-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-24	1362.27	1637.68	21.71%	77.99%	-13.14	2-7
1977-11-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-10	1349.13	1534.88	20.04%	79.66%	-2.87	2-8
1977-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-13	1346.26	1591.16	24.84%	74.86%	-9.38	2-9
1977-12-04	Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1336.88	1426.48	44.69%	55.01%	+7.84	3-9
1977-12-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-21	1344.72	1502.87	22.71%	77.00%	-10.75	3-10
1977-12-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-14	1333.97	1473.48	37.74%	61.96%	+12.48	4-10
1977-09-18	New York Jets	W 20-0	1479.97	1368.60	71.93%	27.78%	+17.73	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1497.70	1459.58	47.62%	52.08%	+18.18	2-0
1977-10-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1515.88	1553.73	37.00%	62.71%	-23.60	2-1
1977-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-10	1492.28	1690.81	30.15%	69.56%	+40.85	3-1
1977-10-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-24	1533.13	1500.46	62.01%	37.69%	-8.83	3-2
1977-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-27	1524.30	1660.41	25.01%	74.69%	-14.72	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-13	1509.58	1525.67	39.96%	59.74%	-9.87	3-4
1977-11-06	Chicago Bears	W 47-0	1499.71	1477.59	60.57%	39.13%	+38.25	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Oakland Raiders	L 29-34	1537.96	1699.80	22.34%	77.37%	-7.13	4-5
1977-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 22-10	1530.83	1359.55	66.15%	33.55%	+16.58	5-5
1977-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-20	1547.41	1391.79	76.74%	22.96%	+12.27	6-5
1977-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 14-24	1559.68	1703.20	37.20%	62.50%	-16.78	6-6
1977-12-11	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 19-15	1542.90	1500.68	48.22%	51.49%	+14.68	7-6
1977-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-16	1557.58	1594.04	52.32%	47.39%	+15.10	8-6
1977-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 17-21	1461.21	1577.82	27.18%	72.53%	-7.76	0-1
1977-09-25	San Diego Chargers	L 7-23	1453.45	1452.41	57.65%	42.06%	-32.85	0-2
1977-10-03	Oakland Raiders	L 28-37	1420.60	1684.31	22.87%	76.83%	-9.80	0-3
1977-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-23	1410.80	1586.97	20.94%	78.76%	-11.96	0-4
1977-10-16	Baltimore Colts	L 6-17	1398.84	1628.23	26.54%	73.16%	-12.56	0-5
1977-10-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 21-16	1386.28	1529.42	24.26%	75.44%	+24.03	1-5
1977-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-44	1410.31	1527.20	27.14%	72.56%	-23.56	1-6
1977-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 20-10	1386.75	1380.94	58.31%	41.39%	+18.66	2-6
1977-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 27-28	1405.41	1439.33	37.53%	62.18%	-5.35	2-7
1977-11-20	Denver Broncos	L 7-14	1400.06	1673.64	21.89%	77.82%	-8.27	2-8
1977-11-27	@ Houston Oilers	L 20-34	1391.79	1547.41	22.96%	76.74%	-12.26	2-9
1977-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1379.53	1551.48	33.46%	66.24%	-21.36	2-10
1977-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-34	1358.17	1331.32	61.22%	38.48%	-15.10	2-11
1977-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-21	1343.07	1696.05	8.73%	90.97%	-1.25	2-12
1977-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-17	1606.01	1406.12	69.72%	29.98%	-32.94	0-1
1977-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-0	1573.07	1433.53	75.06%	24.64%	+15.73	1-1
1977-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-14	1588.80	1482.41	71.35%	28.36%	+18.10	2-1
1977-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 23-24	1606.90	1455.92	63.50%	36.21%	-9.05	2-2
1977-10-16	New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1597.85	1408.88	79.96%	19.74%	+7.46	3-2
1977-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-3	1605.31	1639.89	52.59%	47.12%	+37.99	4-2
1977-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 26-27	1643.30	1385.72	76.20%	23.50%	-10.85	4-3
1977-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-0	1632.45	1225.95	93.13%	6.57%	+5.23	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-6	1637.68	1362.27	77.99%	21.71%	+13.14	6-3
1977-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-10	1650.82	1501.69	63.25%	36.45%	+18.75	7-3
1977-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-0	1669.57	1549.55	59.29%	40.41%	+17.29	8-3
1977-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 20-14	1686.86	1688.91	57.21%	42.49%	+14.84	9-3
1977-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1701.70	1457.76	84.50%	15.20%	+8.68	10-3
1977-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1710.38	1554.85	64.10%	35.60%	-15.81	10-4
1977-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-0	1516.97	1414.99	56.77%	42.94%	+22.08	1-0
1977-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-15	1539.05	1497.10	48.18%	51.53%	+14.68	2-0
1977-10-02	Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1553.73	1515.88	62.71%	37.00%	+23.60	3-0
1977-10-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 28-45	1577.33	1605.72	38.27%	61.43%	-22.51	3-1
1977-10-16	New York Jets	W 21-17	1554.82	1377.82	78.84%	20.86%	+5.96	4-1
1977-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-13	1560.78	1292.52	86.22%	13.49%	+8.17	5-1
1977-10-30	San Diego Chargers	L 13-14	1568.95	1505.39	66.09%	33.62%	-9.41	5-2
1977-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 14-10	1559.54	1361.63	69.48%	30.22%	+8.62	6-2
1977-11-13	New England Patriots	W 17-5	1568.16	1575.73	56.44%	43.27%	+21.37	7-2
1977-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1589.53	1519.09	52.27%	47.43%	-18.24	7-3
1977-11-24	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 55-14	1571.29	1638.67	33.13%	66.57%	+60.72	8-3
1977-12-05	Baltimore Colts	W 17-6	1632.01	1644.06	55.80%	43.90%	+20.76	9-3
1977-12-11	@ New England Patriots	L 10-14	1652.77	1592.99	50.74%	48.96%	-14.46	9-4
1977-12-17	Buffalo Bills	W 31-14	1638.31	1319.15	89.29%	10.42%	+6.13	10-4
1977-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1628.25	1576.89	64.50%	35.20%	-22.51	0-1
1977-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-3	1605.74	1288.02	81.85%	17.85%	+6.25	1-1
1977-10-02	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1611.99	1441.40	78.23%	21.48%	+10.62	2-1
1977-10-09	Detroit Lions	W 14-7	1622.61	1491.62	74.14%	25.57%	+9.66	3-1
1977-10-16	Chicago Bears	W 22-16	1632.27	1464.97	77.91%	21.80%	+7.62	4-1
1977-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-35	1639.89	1605.31	47.12%	52.59%	-38.00	4-2
1977-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-7	1601.89	1481.72	59.31%	40.39%	+15.24	5-2
1977-11-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-27	1617.13	1565.75	64.50%	35.20%	-41.09	5-3
1977-11-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-10	1576.04	1550.25	61.07%	38.63%	+31.16	6-3
1977-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-10	1607.20	1444.68	65.02%	34.68%	-16.04	6-4
1977-11-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-6	1591.16	1346.26	74.86%	24.84%	+9.38	7-4
1977-12-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-27	1600.54	1489.72	71.86%	27.84%	+3.98	8-4
1977-12-11	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-35	1604.52	1674.07	32.85%	66.85%	-21.99	8-5
1977-12-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-21	1582.53	1438.71	62.54%	37.16%	+15.90	9-5
1977-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1577.82	1461.21	72.53%	27.18%	+7.75	1-0
1977-09-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 27-30	1585.57	1527.74	50.46%	49.24%	-12.45	1-1
1977-10-02	@ New York Jets	L 27-30	1573.12	1340.65	73.50%	26.20%	-18.14	1-2
1977-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-0	1554.98	1287.90	86.14%	13.56%	+10.79	2-2
1977-10-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-20	1565.77	1544.97	45.15%	54.56%	+15.55	3-2
1977-10-23	Baltimore Colts	W 17-3	1581.32	1640.79	49.01%	50.70%	+27.03	4-2
1977-10-30	New York Jets	W 24-13	1608.35	1368.99	84.16%	15.55%	+7.36	5-2
1977-11-06	Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1615.71	1306.46	88.74%	10.96%	-39.98	5-3
1977-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 5-17	1575.73	1568.16	43.27%	56.44%	-21.37	5-4
1977-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 20-7	1554.36	1334.76	72.05%	27.66%	+14.23	6-4
1977-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-6	1568.59	1420.30	75.98%	23.72%	+9.58	7-4
1977-12-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1578.17	1472.58	57.27%	42.43%	+14.82	8-4
1977-12-11	Miami Dolphins	W 14-10	1592.99	1652.77	48.96%	50.74%	+14.46	9-4
1977-12-18	@ Baltimore Colts	L 24-30	1607.45	1603.23	42.80%	56.91%	-14.95	9-5
1977-09-18	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1413.81	1444.43	53.15%	46.55%	-15.14	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-23	1398.67	1472.84	32.27%	67.44%	-9.21	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 42-24	1389.46	1499.29	27.95%	71.75%	+43.36	1-2
1977-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 0-14	1432.82	1521.02	44.89%	54.81%	-23.94	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1408.88	1597.85	19.74%	79.96%	-7.46	1-4
1977-10-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 31-49	1401.42	1529.21	25.92%	73.78%	-15.70	1-5
1977-10-30	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-26	1385.72	1643.30	23.50%	76.20%	+10.86	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-28	1396.58	1410.98	40.19%	59.51%	-26.27	2-6
1977-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-10	1370.31	1491.76	40.22%	59.49%	-9.93	2-7
1977-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-20	1360.38	1467.03	42.28%	57.42%	+8.18	3-7
1977-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1368.56	1482.94	27.43%	72.27%	-6.78	3-8
1977-12-04	New York Jets	L 13-16	1361.78	1307.04	64.94%	34.76%	-16.03	3-9
1977-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-33	1345.75	1177.47	78.00%	21.70%	-48.43	3-10
1977-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-35	1297.32	1449.08	23.36%	76.34%	-17.65	3-11
1977-09-18	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1442.64	1561.43	40.58%	59.12%	+14.59	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-41	1457.23	1599.39	24.36%	75.34%	-15.56	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1441.67	1431.01	43.71%	56.00%	-23.31	1-2
1977-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-28	1418.36	1408.23	58.92%	40.79%	-35.61	1-3
1977-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1382.75	1442.11	49.02%	50.68%	+12.51	2-3
1977-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1395.26	1561.36	21.91%	77.79%	+36.75	3-3
1977-10-31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-28	1432.01	1544.91	27.60%	72.10%	-20.84	3-4
1977-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1411.17	1682.26	22.13%	77.57%	-11.83	3-5
1977-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1399.34	1220.72	67.09%	32.62%	+14.72	4-5
1977-11-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1414.06	1527.50	41.33%	58.37%	-22.05	4-6
1977-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-30	1392.01	1537.33	24.03%	75.67%	-14.14	4-7
1977-12-04	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-7	1377.87	1577.95	29.96%	69.74%	+44.43	5-7
1977-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-17	1422.30	1403.98	44.79%	54.91%	-11.06	5-8
1977-12-18	Chicago Bears	L 9-12	1411.24	1513.63	42.88%	56.82%	-10.59	5-9
1977-09-18	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-20	1368.60	1479.97	27.78%	71.93%	-17.73	0-1
1977-09-25	Baltimore Colts	L 12-20	1350.87	1591.32	25.32%	74.38%	-10.22	0-2
1977-10-02	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1340.65	1573.12	26.20%	73.50%	+18.14	1-2
1977-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-19	1358.79	1375.01	39.94%	59.76%	+19.03	2-2
1977-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1377.82	1554.82	20.86%	78.84%	-5.95	2-3
1977-10-23	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1371.87	1663.65	20.15%	79.55%	-2.88	2-4
1977-10-30	@ New England Patriots	L 13-24	1368.99	1608.35	15.55%	84.16%	-7.36	2-5
1977-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1361.63	1559.54	30.22%	69.48%	-8.63	2-6
1977-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-17	1353.00	1323.36	61.60%	38.10%	-36.18	2-7
1977-11-20	@ Baltimore Colts	L 12-33	1316.82	1659.31	9.23%	90.47%	-6.04	2-8
1977-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1310.78	1663.17	15.11%	84.59%	-3.74	2-9
1977-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-13	1307.04	1361.78	34.76%	64.94%	+16.02	3-9
1977-12-11	Buffalo Bills	L 10-14	1323.06	1301.93	60.44%	39.27%	-17.22	3-10
1977-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-27	1305.84	1415.04	28.03%	71.68%	-20.78	3-11
1977-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1642.74	1467.09	78.71%	20.99%	+14.68	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-7	1657.42	1696.86	36.78%	62.92%	+26.89	2-0
1977-10-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-28	1684.31	1420.60	76.83%	22.87%	+9.80	3-0
1977-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-10	1694.11	1519.35	66.60%	33.11%	+18.89	4-0
1977-10-16	Denver Broncos	L 7-30	1713.00	1598.93	72.24%	27.47%	-49.35	4-1
1977-10-23	@ New York Jets	W 28-27	1663.65	1371.87	79.55%	20.15%	+2.88	5-1
1977-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-14	1666.53	1668.56	41.92%	57.79%	+26.03	6-1
1977-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-7	1692.56	1330.61	91.37%	8.33%	+7.24	7-1
1977-11-13	Houston Oilers	W 34-29	1699.80	1537.96	77.37%	22.34%	+7.13	8-1
1977-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-12	1706.93	1473.43	73.62%	26.08%	-23.45	8-2
1977-11-28	Buffalo Bills	W 34-13	1683.48	1320.53	91.42%	8.29%	+5.43	9-2
1977-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1688.91	1686.86	42.49%	57.21%	-14.84	9-3
1977-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 35-13	1674.07	1604.52	66.85%	32.85%	+21.98	10-3
1977-12-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1696.05	1343.07	90.97%	8.73%	+1.25	11-3
1977-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-3	1421.51	1300.04	73.08%	26.62%	+12.02	1-0
1977-09-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1433.53	1573.07	24.64%	75.06%	-15.73	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1417.80	1482.05	33.53%	66.17%	-9.57	1-2
1977-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1408.23	1418.36	40.79%	58.92%	+35.61	2-2
1977-10-16	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1443.84	1515.75	47.22%	52.48%	-13.46	2-3
1977-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1430.38	1657.24	26.83%	72.87%	-9.38	2-4
1977-10-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1421.00	1524.60	28.68%	71.02%	-10.02	2-5
1977-11-06	New Orleans Saints	W 28-7	1410.98	1396.58	59.51%	40.19%	+26.26	3-5
1977-11-13	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1437.24	1523.73	45.13%	54.57%	-11.14	3-6
1977-11-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 16-21	1426.10	1632.87	18.17%	81.53%	-5.80	3-7
1977-11-27	@ New England Patriots	L 6-14	1420.30	1568.59	23.72%	75.98%	-9.58	3-8
1977-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1410.72	1658.42	14.93%	84.78%	-6.74	3-9
1977-12-11	New York Giants	W 17-14	1403.98	1422.30	54.91%	44.79%	+11.06	4-9
1977-12-18	New York Jets	W 27-0	1415.04	1305.84	71.68%	28.03%	+20.78	5-9
1977-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-0	1680.70	1513.26	77.92%	21.78%	+16.16	1-0
1977-09-25	Oakland Raiders	L 7-16	1696.86	1657.42	62.92%	36.78%	-26.89	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-14	1669.97	1540.20	60.63%	39.07%	+20.84	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-27	1690.81	1492.28	69.56%	30.15%	-40.85	2-2
1977-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-14	1649.96	1556.39	69.83%	29.88%	+10.45	3-2
1977-10-23	Houston Oilers	W 27-10	1660.41	1524.30	74.69%	25.01%	+14.71	4-2
1977-10-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-31	1675.12	1613.76	50.97%	48.73%	-22.97	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-21	1652.15	1642.53	43.56%	56.14%	-23.23	4-4
1977-11-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 35-31	1628.92	1536.05	69.74%	29.96%	+8.55	5-4
1977-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-13	1637.47	1668.06	53.16%	46.55%	+25.70	6-4
1977-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1663.17	1310.78	84.59%	15.11%	+3.73	7-4
1977-12-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-20	1666.90	1335.74	89.91%	9.79%	+4.43	8-4
1977-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1671.33	1572.83	56.27%	43.43%	-21.22	8-5
1977-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	W 10-9	1650.11	1527.54	59.64%	40.06%	+5.72	9-5
1977-09-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-24	1467.09	1642.74	20.99%	78.71%	-14.68	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1452.41	1453.45	42.06%	57.65%	+32.86	1-1
1977-10-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1485.27	1573.08	44.95%	54.76%	+35.75	2-1
1977-10-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-0	1521.02	1432.82	54.81%	44.89%	+23.95	3-1
1977-10-16	New England Patriots	L 20-24	1544.97	1565.77	54.56%	45.15%	-15.55	3-2
1977-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-21	1529.42	1386.28	75.44%	24.26%	-24.03	3-3
1977-10-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 14-13	1505.39	1568.95	33.62%	66.09%	+9.41	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1514.80	1442.35	52.56%	47.14%	-33.49	4-4
1977-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1481.31	1665.77	31.88%	67.82%	-7.88	4-5
1977-11-20	Oakland Raiders	W 12-7	1473.43	1706.93	26.08%	73.62%	+23.45	5-5
1977-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-28	1496.88	1342.97	63.89%	35.82%	+7.22	6-5
1977-12-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-14	1504.10	1532.26	53.51%	46.20%	+31.59	7-5
1977-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-17	1535.69	1719.98	20.18%	79.53%	-8.15	7-6
1977-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-10	1527.54	1650.11	40.06%	59.64%	-5.71	7-7
1977-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1513.26	1680.70	21.78%	77.92%	-16.16	0-1
1977-09-25	Miami Dolphins	L 15-19	1497.10	1539.05	51.53%	48.18%	-14.69	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-34	1482.41	1588.80	28.36%	71.35%	-18.10	0-3
1977-10-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-7	1464.31	1454.33	58.90%	40.81%	-22.20	0-4
1977-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1442.11	1382.75	50.68%	49.02%	-12.51	0-5
1977-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 28-7	1429.60	1491.31	48.68%	51.02%	+33.32	1-5
1977-10-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1462.92	1233.31	83.41%	16.30%	+7.36	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 10-3	1470.28	1466.48	42.74%	56.97%	+21.48	3-5
1977-11-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 10-7	1491.76	1370.31	59.49%	40.22%	+9.93	4-5
1977-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-23	1501.69	1650.82	36.45%	63.25%	-18.75	4-6
1977-11-27	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1482.94	1368.56	72.27%	27.43%	+6.78	5-6
1977-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1489.72	1600.54	27.84%	71.86%	-3.97	5-7
1977-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 35-42	1485.75	1665.16	32.52%	67.19%	-12.27	5-8
1977-12-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-16	1473.48	1333.97	61.96%	37.74%	-12.49	5-9
1977-09-18	Baltimore Colts	L 14-29	1320.62	1578.34	23.49%	76.22%	-12.99	0-1
1977-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-42	1307.63	1563.47	14.34%	85.36%	-9.61	0-2
1977-10-02	Denver Broncos	L 13-24	1298.02	1576.85	21.37%	78.33%	-10.12	0-3
1977-10-09	@ New England Patriots	L 0-31	1287.90	1554.98	13.56%	86.14%	-10.79	0-4
1977-10-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-23	1277.11	1267.38	58.86%	40.84%	+15.41	1-4
1977-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-31	1292.52	1560.78	13.49%	86.22%	-8.17	1-5
1977-10-30	Buffalo Bills	W 56-17	1284.35	1352.71	47.73%	51.97%	+46.26	2-5
1977-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-44	1330.61	1692.56	8.33%	91.37%	-7.25	2-6
1977-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 17-0	1323.36	1353.00	38.10%	61.60%	+36.19	3-6
1977-11-20	Houston Oilers	L 10-22	1359.55	1530.83	33.55%	66.15%	-16.58	3-7
1977-11-27	San Diego Chargers	L 28-30	1342.97	1496.88	35.82%	63.89%	-7.23	3-8
1977-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-30	1335.74	1666.90	9.79%	89.91%	-4.42	3-9
1977-12-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1331.32	1358.17	38.48%	61.22%	+15.10	4-9
1977-12-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-19	1346.42	1486.00	37.73%	61.97%	+8.83	5-9
1977-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-7	1557.26	1546.63	43.70%	56.00%	-16.48	0-1
1977-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1540.78	1508.62	61.94%	37.76%	+9.33	1-1
1977-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1550.11	1554.89	41.53%	58.17%	-18.73	1-2
1977-10-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-30	1531.38	1620.48	44.76%	54.94%	-15.63	1-3
1977-10-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1515.75	1443.84	52.48%	47.22%	+13.46	2-3
1977-10-23	New Orleans Saints	W 49-31	1529.21	1401.42	73.78%	25.92%	+15.70	3-3
1977-10-31	New York Giants	W 28-0	1544.91	1432.01	72.10%	27.60%	+20.84	4-3
1977-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-7	1565.75	1617.13	35.20%	64.50%	+41.09	5-3
1977-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-17	1606.84	1694.09	30.65%	69.06%	+26.03	6-3
1977-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-16	1632.87	1426.10	81.53%	18.17%	+5.80	7-3
1977-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 14-55	1638.67	1571.29	66.57%	33.13%	-60.72	7-4
1977-12-04	@ New York Giants	L 7-27	1577.95	1377.87	69.74%	29.96%	-44.43	7-5
1977-12-10	Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1533.52	1534.85	57.31%	42.39%	-20.01	7-6
1977-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-17	1513.51	1225.90	79.17%	20.54%	-35.66	7-7
1977-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-13	1300.04	1421.51	26.62%	73.08%	-12.02	0-1
1977-09-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 3-9	1288.02	1605.74	17.85%	81.85%	-6.24	0-2
1977-10-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-23	1281.78	1614.95	9.69%	90.02%	-5.54	0-3
1977-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1276.24	1573.62	19.64%	80.07%	-8.86	0-4
1977-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-30	1267.38	1277.11	40.84%	58.86%	-15.41	0-5
1977-10-23	Green Bay Packers	L 0-13	1251.97	1402.36	36.28%	63.42%	-18.66	0-6
1977-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1233.31	1462.92	16.30%	83.41%	-7.36	0-7
1977-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-31	1225.95	1632.45	6.57%	93.13%	-5.23	0-8
1977-11-13	New York Giants	L 0-10	1220.72	1399.34	32.62%	67.09%	-14.72	0-9
1977-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-16	1206.00	1453.82	14.92%	84.79%	-6.39	0-10
1977-11-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-17	1199.61	1458.85	23.33%	76.37%	-13.73	0-11
1977-12-04	Chicago Bears	L 0-10	1185.88	1494.46	18.64%	81.07%	-8.41	0-12
1977-12-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-14	1177.47	1345.75	21.70%	78.00%	+48.43	1-12
1977-12-18	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-7	1225.90	1513.51	20.54%	79.17%	+35.66	2-12
1977-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1561.43	1442.64	59.12%	40.58%	-14.59	0-1
1977-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 10-6	1546.84	1439.06	71.51%	28.19%	+8.05	1-1
1977-10-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-14	1554.89	1550.11	58.17%	41.53%	+18.73	2-1
1977-10-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 10-0	1573.62	1276.24	80.07%	19.64%	+8.86	3-1
1977-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-34	1582.48	1636.11	34.91%	64.80%	-21.12	3-2
1977-10-23	New York Giants	L 6-17	1561.36	1395.26	77.79%	21.91%	-36.76	3-3
1977-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1524.60	1421.00	71.02%	28.68%	+10.03	4-3
1977-11-07	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-10	1534.63	1636.73	28.86%	70.84%	-10.90	4-4
1977-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1523.73	1437.24	54.57%	45.13%	+11.15	5-4
1977-11-21	Green Bay Packers	W 10-9	1534.88	1349.13	79.66%	20.04%	+2.86	6-4
1977-11-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-14	1537.74	1642.36	42.56%	57.14%	-16.06	6-5
1977-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 10-0	1521.68	1315.10	70.52%	29.18%	+13.17	7-5
1977-12-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 26-20	1534.85	1533.52	42.39%	57.31%	+20.00	8-5
1977-12-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-14	1554.85	1710.38	35.60%	64.10%	+15.82	9-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1977-12-24	Oakland Raiders	L 31-37	1618.18	1697.30	46.33%	53.67%	-16.13	0-1
1977-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1524.22	1697.36	21.33%	78.67%	-16.60	0-1
1977-12-26	Chicago Bears	W 37-7	1697.36	1524.22	78.67%	21.33%	+16.60	1-0
1978-01-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-6	1713.96	1624.87	69.45%	30.55%	+17.90	2-0
1978-01-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-10	1731.86	1736.22	49.37%	50.63%	+29.66	3-0
1977-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-21	1708.20	1655.83	64.79%	35.21%	+18.04	1-0
1978-01-01	Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1726.24	1713.43	59.44%	40.56%	+9.98	2-0
1978-01-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1736.22	1731.86	50.63%	49.37%	-29.66	2-1
1977-12-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-14	1694.57	1598.43	70.31%	29.69%	-26.43	0-1
1977-12-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-7	1598.43	1694.57	29.69%	70.31%	+26.44	1-0
1978-01-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-23	1624.87	1713.96	30.55%	69.45%	-17.90	1-1
1977-12-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-31	1697.30	1618.18	53.67%	46.33%	+16.13	1-0
1978-01-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1713.43	1726.24	40.56%	59.44%	-9.98	1-1
1977-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-34	1655.83	1708.20	35.21%	64.79%	-18.04	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1977-11-06	10.96%	Buffalo Bills	1306.46	24	@ New England Patriots	1615.71	14
2	1977-12-11	18.35%	Detroit Lions	1418.64	13	@ Baltimore Colts	1623.30	10
3	1977-12-18	20.54%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1225.90	17	St. Louis Cardinals	1513.51	7
4	1977-12-11	21.70%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1177.47	33	@ New Orleans Saints	1345.75	14
5	1977-10-23	21.91%	New York Giants	1395.26	17	@ Washington Redskins	1561.36	6
6	1977-10-30	23.50%	@ New Orleans Saints	1385.72	27	Los Angeles Rams	1643.30	26
7	1977-10-23	24.26%	Kansas City Chiefs	1386.28	21	@ San Diego Chargers	1529.42	16
8	1977-11-20	26.08%	@ San Diego Chargers	1473.43	12	Oakland Raiders	1706.93	7
9	1977-10-02	26.20%	@ New York Jets	1340.65	30	New England Patriots	1573.12	27
10	1977-10-16	27.47%	Denver Broncos	1598.93	30	@ Oakland Raiders	1713.00	7
11	1977-10-02	27.95%	New Orleans Saints	1389.46	42	@ Chicago Bears	1499.29	24
12	1977-09-18	29.20%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1495.98	13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1595.23	3
13	1977-12-26 *	29.69%	Minnesota Vikings	1598.43	14	@ Los Angeles Rams	1694.57	7
14	1977-12-04	29.96%	@ New York Giants	1377.87	27	St. Louis Cardinals	1577.95	7
15	1977-09-18	29.98%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1406.12	17	Los Angeles Rams	1606.01	6
16	1977-10-09	30.15%	@ Houston Oilers	1492.28	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1690.81	10
17	1977-11-14	30.65%	St. Louis Cardinals	1606.84	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1694.09	17
18	1977-11-24	33.13%	Miami Dolphins	1571.29	55	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1638.67	14
19	1977-10-30	33.62%	San Diego Chargers	1505.39	14	@ Miami Dolphins	1568.95	13
20	1977-11-20	34.68%	@ Chicago Bears	1444.68	10	Minnesota Vikings	1607.20	7
21	1977-12-04	34.76%	New York Jets	1307.04	16	@ New Orleans Saints	1361.78	13
22	1977-09-18	35.20%	Dallas Cowboys	1576.89	16	@ Minnesota Vikings	1628.25	10
23	1977-11-06	35.20%	St. Louis Cardinals	1565.75	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1617.13	7
24	1977-12-17	35.60%	@ Washington Redskins	1554.85	17	Los Angeles Rams	1710.38	14
25	1977-10-10	36.21%	@ Chicago Bears	1455.92	24	Los Angeles Rams	1606.90	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1977-11-24	60.72	Miami Dolphins	55	1571.29	33.13%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1638.67	66.57%
2	1977-10-16	49.35	Denver Broncos	30	1598.93	27.47%	@ Oakland Raiders	7	1713.00	72.24%
3	1977-12-11	48.43	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33	1177.47	21.70%	@ New Orleans Saints	14	1345.75	78.00%
4	1977-10-30	46.26	@ Seattle Seahawks	56	1284.35	47.73%	Buffalo Bills	17	1352.71	51.97%
5	1977-12-04	44.43	@ New York Giants	27	1377.87	29.96%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1577.95	69.74%
6	1977-10-02	43.37	New Orleans Saints	42	1389.46	27.95%	@ Chicago Bears	24	1499.29	71.75%
7	1977-11-06	41.09	St. Louis Cardinals	27	1565.75	35.20%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1617.13	64.50%
8	1977-10-09	40.85	@ Houston Oilers	27	1492.28	30.15%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1690.81	69.56%
9	1977-10-30	40.09	Chicago Bears	26	1437.50	44.53%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1421.02	55.17%
10	1977-11-06	39.98	Buffalo Bills	24	1306.46	10.96%	@ New England Patriots	14	1615.71	88.74%
11	1977-11-06	38.26	@ Houston Oilers	47	1499.71	60.57%	Chicago Bears	0	1477.59	39.13%
12	1977-10-24	38.00	@ Los Angeles Rams	35	1605.31	52.59%	Minnesota Vikings	3	1639.89	47.12%
13	1977-10-23	36.76	New York Giants	17	1395.26	21.91%	@ Washington Redskins	6	1561.36	77.79%
14	1977-11-13	36.19	Seattle Seahawks	17	1323.36	38.10%	@ New York Jets	0	1353.00	61.60%
15	1977-10-02	35.76	@ San Diego Chargers	24	1485.27	44.95%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1573.08	54.76%
16	1977-12-18	35.66	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	1225.90	20.54%	St. Louis Cardinals	7	1513.51	79.17%
17	1977-10-09	35.61	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1408.23	40.79%	@ New York Giants	10	1418.36	58.92%
18	1977-11-24	33.74	Chicago Bears	31	1460.72	42.27%	@ Detroit Lions	14	1460.21	57.43%
19	1977-11-06	33.49	@ Detroit Lions	20	1442.35	47.14%	San Diego Chargers	0	1514.80	52.56%
20	1977-10-23	33.32	@ San Francisco 49ers	28	1429.60	48.68%	Detroit Lions	7	1491.31	51.02%
21	1977-09-18	32.94	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1406.12	29.98%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1606.01	69.72%
22	1977-09-25	32.86	San Diego Chargers	23	1452.41	42.06%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1453.45	57.65%
23	1977-09-18	31.76	Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1495.98	29.20%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1595.23	70.51%
24	1977-12-04	31.59	@ San Diego Chargers	37	1504.10	53.51%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1532.26	46.20%
25	1977-11-13	31.16	@ Minnesota Vikings	42	1576.04	61.07%	Cincinnati Bengals	10	1550.25	38.63%