1975 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1974

Runner-Up

Dallas Cowboys

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1971

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Colts

3.30 wins above expected

10 wins · 6.70 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New Orleans Saints

2.78 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.78 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	2	.857	—	373	162	+211	10.54	+1.46
2	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	11	3	.786	1	340	246	+94	8.77	+2.23
3	Houston Oilers	10	4	.714	2	293	226	+67	6.94	+3.06
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	11	.214	9	218	372	-154	3.74	-0.74

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Colts Division	10	4	.714	—	395	269	+126	6.70	+3.30
2	Miami Dolphins	10	4	.714	—	357	222	+135	9.88	+0.12
3	Buffalo Bills	8	6	.571	2	420	355	+65	7.85	+0.15
4	New York Jets	3	11	.214	7	258	433	-175	4.73	-1.73
5	New England Patriots	3	11	.214	7	258	358	-100	5.51	-2.51

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	11	3	.786	—	375	255	+120	10.07	+0.93
2	Denver Broncos	6	8	.429	5	254	307	-53	6.68	-0.68
3	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	.357	6	282	341	-59	6.17	-1.17
4	San Diego Chargers	2	12	.143	9	189	345	-156	3.76	-1.76

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	.857	—	377	180	+197	10.92	+1.08
2	Detroit Lions	7	7	.500	5	245	262	-17	7.29	-0.29
3	Chicago Bears	4	10	.286	8	191	379	-188	3.50	+0.50
4	Green Bay Packers	4	10	.286	8	226	285	-59	4.97	-0.97

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	St. Louis Cardinals Division	11	3	.786	—	356	276	+80	8.32	+2.68
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	10	4	.714	1	350	268	+82	9.64	+0.36
3	Washington Redskins	8	6	.571	3	325	276	+49	8.97	-0.97
4	New York Giants	5	9	.357	6	216	306	-90	4.84	+0.16
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4	10	.286	7	225	302	-77	5.36	-1.36

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	2	.857	—	312	135	+177	10.16	+1.84
2	San Francisco 49ers	5	9	.357	7	255	286	-31	7.02	-2.02
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	10	.286	8	240	289	-49	4.87	-0.87
4	New Orleans Saints	2	12	.143	10	165	360	-195	4.78	-2.78

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Baltimore Colts 10

Dec 27

Oakland Raiders 31

Cincinnati Bengals 28

Dec 28

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Oakland Raiders 10

Jan 4

NFC

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams 35

St. Louis Cardinals 23

Dec 27

Dallas Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings 14

Dec 28

Conference Championship

Dallas Cowboys 37

Los Angeles Rams 7

Jan 4

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Dallas Cowboys 17

Jan 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1774	12	10.54	+1.46	90.86%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1738	12	10.16	+1.84	94.19%	4	7	9	10	11	13	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1722	12	10.92	+1.08	86.21%	5	8	10	11	12	13	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1673	10	9.88	+0.12	63.67%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1671	11	10.07	+0.93	82.47%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1653	10	9.64	+0.36	69.43%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1640	10	6.70	+3.30	98.98%	1	4	6	7	8	9	13
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1636	11	8.32	+2.68	96.91%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1619	11	8.77	+2.23	94.98%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1603	10	6.94	+3.06	97.73%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1571	8	7.85	+0.15	65.00%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1520	8	8.97	-0.97	39.14%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1476	7	7.29	-0.29	55.13%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1447	4	5.36	-1.36	32.02%	0	3	4	5	6	8	13
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1434	6	6.68	-0.68	45.90%	1	4	6	7	8	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1421	4	4.97	-0.97	40.23%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1398	4	4.87	-0.87	43.35%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1383	5	6.17	-1.17	35.85%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1380	3	3.74	-0.74	46.45%	0	1	3	4	5	6	10
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1360	5	4.84	+0.16	67.32%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1359	3	5.51	-2.51	12.39%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1357	5	7.02	-2.02	20.38%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1326	4	3.50	+0.50	75.50%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1305	3	4.73	-1.73	23.67%	0	2	4	5	6	7	11
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1304	2	3.76	-1.76	22.80%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1230	2	4.78	-2.78	8.52%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-3 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.4 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.55%	0.55%	1.37%	1.65%	1.37%	1.10%	0.82%	7.42%
7–13	0.55%	4.95%	4.40%	5.49%	1.65%	1.65%	1.37%	20.05%
14–20	1.37%	4.40%	5.49%	5.77%	4.67%	1.65%	1.37%	24.73%
21–27	1.65%	5.49%	5.77%	4.40%	3.02%	1.10%	—	21.43%
28–34	1.37%	1.65%	4.67%	3.02%	2.20%	1.37%	0.55%	14.84%
35–41	1.10%	1.65%	1.65%	1.10%	1.37%	—	0.27%	7.14%
42+	0.82%	1.37%	1.37%	—	0.55%	0.27%	—	4.40%
Total	7.42%	20.05%	24.73%	21.43%	14.84%	7.14%	4.40%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.59	20.59	+0.00
SD	10.80	10.80	16.67
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	52	52	+43
Min	0	0	-43

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.14	20.64	-3.50
SD	10.92	10.15	15.00
CV	0.64	0.49	—
Max	35	38	+22
Min	0	3	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.21	19.21	+9.00
SD	13.05	11.42	14.56
CV	0.46	0.59	—
Max	52	38	+33
Min	10	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
Total	—	—	35.71%	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.00	25.36	+4.64
SD	9.77	9.72	14.83
CV	0.33	0.38	—
Max	45	42	+28
Min	13	14	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	21.43%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.64	27.07	-13.43
SD	11.30	10.22	18.33
CV	0.83	0.38	—
Max	42	46	+25
Min	3	13	-33

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	57.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.29	17.57	+6.71
SD	8.53	10.94	14.67
CV	0.35	0.62	—
Max	47	35	+31
Min	14	0	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	28.57%	—	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.57	26.57	-11.00
SD	10.17	10.05	16.93
CV	0.65	0.38	—
Max	40	42	+26
Min	6	14	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	35.71%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	19.14	+5.86
SD	8.44	10.73	10.43
CV	0.34	0.56	—
Max	37	34	+26
Min	13	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.14	21.93	-3.79
SD	7.69	10.82	12.37
CV	0.42	0.49	—
Max	37	42	+15
Min	9	10	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	28.57%	35.71%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.50	18.71	-1.21
SD	8.27	8.14	13.58
CV	0.47	0.43	—
Max	30	36	+20
Min	0	7	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	20.36	-4.21
SD	9.62	7.28	14.84
CV	0.60	0.36	—
Max	40	31	+26
Min	3	7	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.93	16.14	+4.79
SD	8.91	8.55	12.66
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	40	32	+30
Min	7	0	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.14	24.36	-4.21
SD	11.37	9.44	15.06
CV	0.56	0.39	—
Max	42	40	+32
Min	3	10	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.29	9.64	+12.64
SD	10.64	6.50	12.62
CV	0.48	0.67	—
Max	42	24	+39
Min	7	0	-11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	7.14%	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.50	15.86	+9.64
SD	10.86	10.03	16.18
CV	0.43	0.63	—
Max	46	33	+43
Min	7	0	-16

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
35–41	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.93	12.86	+14.07
SD	8.65	8.33	12.49
CV	0.32	0.65	—
Max	42	31	+38
Min	10	0	-7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	25.57	-7.14
SD	10.29	10.70	12.11
CV	0.56	0.42	—
Max	33	45	+14
Min	0	7	-29

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.79	25.71	-13.93
SD	7.09	12.81	14.76
CV	0.60	0.50	—
Max	23	48	+16
Min	0	7	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	35.71%	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.43	21.86	-6.43
SD	9.72	10.73	14.34
CV	0.63	0.49	—
Max	35	49	+14
Min	0	13	-36

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	21.43%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.43	30.93	-12.50
SD	10.68	11.80	18.53
CV	0.58	0.38	—
Max	36	52	+29
Min	0	7	-43

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.79	18.21	+8.57
SD	12.54	11.60	16.49
CV	0.47	0.64	—
Max	48	42	+38
Min	6	0	-32

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.07	21.57	-5.50
SD	8.19	10.11	16.54
CV	0.51	0.47	—
Max	27	42	+23
Min	0	3	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
35–41	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.64	11.57	+15.07
SD	10.10	8.36	14.55
CV	0.38	0.72	—
Max	42	30	+37
Min	3	0	-9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.50	24.64	-11.14
SD	9.12	11.74	13.13
CV	0.68	0.48	—
Max	28	47	+8
Min	0	6	-37

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	14.29%	—	—	28.57%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	—	7.14%	57.14%	14.29%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.21	20.43	-2.21
SD	8.23	9.54	14.28
CV	0.45	0.47	—
Max	35	31	+28
Min	3	3	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	50.00%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.43	19.71	+5.71
SD	6.64	8.07	11.96
CV	0.26	0.41	—
Max	37	37	+31
Min	14	6	-18

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
35–41	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.21	19.71	+3.50
SD	12.78	8.80	18.16
CV	0.55	0.45	—
Max	49	31	+38
Min	3	3	-23

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Colts	10	6.70	+3.30
2	Houston Oilers	10	6.94	+3.06
3	St. Louis Cardinals	11	8.32	+2.68
4	Cincinnati Bengals	11	8.77	+2.23
5	Los Angeles Rams	12	10.16	+1.84

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New Orleans Saints	2	4.78	-2.78
2	New England Patriots	3	5.51	-2.51
3	San Francisco 49ers	5	7.02	-2.02
4	San Diego Chargers	2	3.76	-1.76
5	New York Jets	3	4.73	-1.73

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Colts	9	Oct 26 – Dec 21	1 in 650
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	Oct 5 – Dec 13	1 in 21
3	St. Louis Cardinals	6	Oct 19 – Nov 23	1 in 18
4	Cincinnati Bengals	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 17
5	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Oct 12 – Oct 26	1 in 16

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Chargers	11	Sep 21 – Nov 30	1 in 37
2	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 28
3	New York Jets	8	Oct 12 – Nov 30	1 in 21
4	New Orleans Saints	7	Nov 9 – Dec 21	1 in 20
5	San Francisco 49ers	4	Nov 30 – Dec 21	1 in 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.00%	22.72%	5.14%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	22.39%	52.04%	23.31%	2.26%
Houston Oilers	5.51%	23.74%	60.34%	10.41%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.10%	1.50%	11.21%	87.19%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	69.33%	20.45%	7.53%	2.42%	0.27%
Buffalo Bills	20.83%	42.26%	21.85%	10.76%	4.30%
Baltimore Colts	6.38%	21.71%	34.65%	24.07%	13.19%
New England Patriots	2.46%	9.68%	21.08%	33.96%	32.82%
New York Jets	1.00%	5.90%	14.89%	28.79%	49.42%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	86.88%	11.02%	1.90%	0.20%
Denver Broncos	7.96%	48.14%	33.68%	10.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.78%	35.45%	45.65%	14.12%
San Diego Chargers	0.38%	5.39%	18.77%	75.46%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	91.92%	7.52%	0.54%	0.02%
Detroit Lions	7.32%	70.70%	18.31%	3.67%
Green Bay Packers	0.72%	17.35%	56.69%	25.24%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	4.43%	24.46%	71.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	48.14%	30.27%	16.56%	4.39%	0.64%
Washington Redskins	32.01%	34.44%	25.04%	6.84%	1.67%
St. Louis Cardinals	18.00%	28.56%	35.88%	13.40%	4.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.16%	4.25%	13.89%	42.54%	38.16%
New York Giants	0.69%	2.48%	8.63%	32.83%	55.37%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	86.84%	11.42%	1.56%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	10.79%	56.52%	22.61%	10.08%
Atlanta Falcons	1.42%	17.42%	38.94%	42.22%
New Orleans Saints	0.95%	14.64%	36.89%	47.52%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.83%	24.77%	16.10%	10.65%	5.55%	2.98%	1.83%	0.87%	0.24%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	—
Oakland Raiders	23.77%	26.15%	24.31%	11.80%	6.19%	3.91%	1.90%	1.06%	0.58%	0.21%	0.08%	0.02%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	22.48%	23.87%	19.65%	12.04%	8.82%	5.23%	3.36%	2.17%	1.23%	0.81%	0.26%	0.07%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.50%	10.39%	14.08%	19.94%	14.72%	11.80%	8.07%	5.29%	3.31%	1.73%	0.86%	0.25%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	3.53%	6.77%	9.85%	14.33%	17.23%	12.83%	10.81%	8.45%	6.46%	4.83%	2.86%	1.46%	0.59%
Houston Oilers	1.76%	2.38%	4.45%	8.87%	10.28%	12.05%	14.67%	15.59%	12.95%	7.58%	4.90%	3.13%	1.39%
Denver Broncos	0.82%	2.08%	3.75%	6.95%	11.12%	15.62%	13.63%	12.94%	13.52%	7.96%	6.05%	3.82%	1.74%
Baltimore Colts	0.72%	1.83%	3.55%	6.72%	10.32%	11.11%	13.70%	13.97%	11.51%	11.09%	7.53%	5.16%	2.79%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.39%	0.91%	2.38%	4.59%	7.79%	12.23%	12.35%	13.82%	16.14%	11.71%	8.71%	5.65%	3.33%
New England Patriots	0.12%	0.61%	1.23%	2.57%	4.30%	5.76%	9.11%	10.49%	11.91%	17.02%	14.08%	12.16%	10.64%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.15%	0.51%	0.98%	2.43%	3.65%	5.78%	7.44%	9.36%	15.90%	16.18%	17.69%	19.88%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.29%	0.62%	1.69%	2.56%	4.47%	7.07%	10.78%	18.79%	23.47%	30.11%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%	0.27%	0.63%	1.14%	2.23%	3.44%	5.72%	10.29%	19.64%	27.09%	29.44%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Minnesota Vikings	42.62%	27.65%	16.77%	6.39%	3.59%	1.70%	0.87%	0.24%	0.11%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Los Angeles Rams	22.36%	26.54%	26.06%	11.16%	6.61%	3.95%	1.90%	0.88%	0.34%	0.13%	0.05%	0.02%	—
Dallas Cowboys	17.24%	18.88%	18.03%	17.87%	10.47%	7.92%	4.99%	2.50%	1.25%	0.47%	0.25%	0.11%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	9.97%	12.73%	15.66%	19.35%	14.50%	10.78%	7.87%	4.14%	2.38%	1.57%	0.60%	0.32%	0.13%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.67%	7.83%	10.64%	17.20%	15.38%	14.88%	11.74%	6.97%	4.69%	3.16%	1.50%	0.85%	0.49%
Detroit Lions	1.53%	2.74%	5.41%	11.60%	18.35%	17.69%	15.03%	10.39%	7.43%	4.94%	2.82%	1.26%	0.81%
San Francisco 49ers	1.28%	2.61%	4.95%	9.17%	15.72%	16.31%	14.79%	12.02%	8.00%	5.76%	4.64%	3.12%	1.63%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.13%	0.42%	0.81%	2.28%	3.53%	5.77%	9.59%	11.39%	14.02%	15.84%	13.11%	12.12%	10.99%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.10%	0.37%	1.27%	2.90%	5.47%	8.69%	14.08%	15.98%	15.23%	14.04%	11.82%	9.98%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%	0.18%	0.46%	1.31%	3.72%	5.75%	8.27%	11.61%	13.61%	13.40%	15.68%	15.41%	10.54%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.13%	0.30%	1.02%	2.65%	4.92%	7.49%	12.56%	12.93%	14.11%	15.61%	15.37%	12.88%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.19%	0.53%	1.30%	1.98%	3.74%	6.38%	8.49%	12.14%	15.45%	15.46%	17.08%	17.22%
Chicago Bears	—	—	0.01%	0.08%	0.60%	1.12%	2.39%	4.73%	7.12%	9.90%	16.23%	22.51%	35.31%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Minnesota Vikings	25.33%	19.18%	14.19%	12.14%	8.28%	7.35%	3.78%	3.15%	2.07%	1.49%	1.06%	0.79%	0.35%	0.46%	0.08%	0.15%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%	—	0.02%	—	0.01%	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	18.38%	17.03%	13.28%	12.43%	8.85%	7.81%	6.16%	4.67%	3.23%	2.48%	1.87%	1.17%	0.97%	0.65%	0.37%	0.27%	0.18%	0.03%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	12.70%	11.84%	13.36%	12.37%	12.24%	11.02%	6.27%	5.96%	3.76%	3.35%	2.01%	1.63%	1.15%	0.82%	0.55%	0.38%	0.26%	0.13%	0.11%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	10.88%	12.71%	12.72%	12.54%	11.29%	11.48%	6.86%	6.29%	3.94%	3.30%	2.29%	1.86%	1.23%	0.80%	0.76%	0.32%	0.33%	0.18%	0.06%	0.06%	0.07%	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Miami Dolphins	10.54%	11.39%	11.35%	11.93%	9.72%	9.99%	6.73%	6.13%	5.26%	4.27%	3.08%	2.32%	1.93%	1.47%	1.34%	0.74%	0.57%	0.46%	0.32%	0.21%	0.15%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Dallas Cowboys	8.52%	9.11%	9.88%	9.76%	9.77%	9.03%	9.05%	7.86%	5.76%	4.79%	3.99%	3.37%	2.68%	1.98%	1.47%	1.08%	0.50%	0.59%	0.24%	0.22%	0.12%	0.15%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	4.63%	5.52%	6.86%	6.73%	8.39%	8.07%	9.51%	8.36%	7.75%	7.28%	5.63%	4.70%	3.77%	3.65%	2.22%	2.02%	1.32%	1.18%	0.80%	0.60%	0.38%	0.25%	0.20%	0.07%	0.08%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.80%	4.70%	5.31%	5.99%	7.51%	7.34%	9.33%	9.43%	8.17%	7.63%	6.27%	5.76%	4.20%	3.75%	2.56%	2.48%	1.52%	1.63%	0.87%	0.74%	0.40%	0.30%	0.16%	0.09%	0.02%	0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.91%	2.85%	3.93%	4.67%	5.79%	5.70%	8.77%	8.41%	8.07%	7.12%	7.91%	6.59%	5.83%	4.81%	3.73%	3.28%	2.65%	1.98%	1.73%	1.47%	1.07%	0.55%	0.47%	0.38%	0.25%	0.08%
Buffalo Bills	1.43%	1.78%	2.95%	3.60%	4.79%	5.20%	6.84%	7.49%	8.34%	8.55%	6.97%	6.96%	6.39%	5.41%	4.71%	3.94%	3.43%	2.58%	2.69%	1.59%	1.75%	0.95%	0.68%	0.61%	0.27%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	0.55%	0.83%	1.25%	1.66%	2.79%	3.13%	5.72%	6.16%	7.41%	8.82%	7.79%	8.84%	6.73%	8.00%	5.57%	5.58%	4.20%	3.98%	3.00%	2.33%	1.90%	1.49%	0.65%	0.80%	0.54%	0.28%
San Francisco 49ers	0.42%	0.80%	1.17%	1.48%	2.54%	3.02%	4.23%	4.77%	6.81%	7.69%	7.17%	7.91%	6.52%	7.63%	6.31%	6.43%	4.44%	4.38%	3.39%	3.08%	2.54%	2.35%	1.87%	1.39%	0.99%	0.67%
Houston Oilers	0.43%	0.93%	1.27%	1.28%	2.28%	2.56%	3.84%	4.64%	5.70%	5.34%	6.68%	6.57%	7.72%	6.92%	7.72%	7.50%	6.50%	5.37%	4.01%	3.53%	2.73%	2.02%	1.99%	1.25%	0.77%	0.45%
Denver Broncos	0.14%	0.42%	0.80%	0.95%	1.68%	2.21%	3.13%	4.01%	5.21%	6.01%	6.71%	8.37%	7.82%	7.05%	6.77%	6.54%	6.47%	6.17%	4.23%	3.80%	3.48%	2.65%	2.16%	1.51%	1.08%	0.63%
Baltimore Colts	0.19%	0.42%	0.75%	0.96%	1.42%	2.11%	3.08%	3.78%	4.85%	5.35%	6.17%	6.51%	7.61%	7.29%	7.36%	6.36%	6.46%	5.63%	5.85%	4.21%	4.19%	2.58%	2.63%	2.14%	1.32%	0.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.21%	0.27%	0.57%	0.90%	1.33%	2.11%	2.63%	3.58%	4.31%	6.00%	6.33%	6.95%	6.18%	7.50%	6.81%	8.04%	6.94%	6.25%	5.59%	4.76%	3.88%	2.94%	2.66%	1.89%	1.29%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.05%	0.18%	0.27%	0.57%	0.71%	1.18%	1.30%	2.13%	2.26%	3.26%	3.16%	5.24%	4.53%	5.95%	5.89%	7.03%	6.23%	8.26%	7.85%	6.90%	6.20%	5.98%	5.82%	5.30%	3.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.11%	0.20%	0.18%	0.37%	0.53%	0.84%	1.38%	1.86%	1.86%	2.99%	2.93%	4.28%	4.89%	5.49%	6.05%	6.74%	7.05%	7.40%	8.08%	6.62%	6.97%	6.70%	6.29%	5.90%	4.28%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.07%	0.17%	0.24%	0.49%	0.84%	1.01%	1.55%	2.32%	2.71%	3.55%	4.73%	5.24%	6.93%	7.14%	8.38%	7.10%	8.56%	7.51%	7.92%	6.88%	6.10%	5.63%	4.85%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.14%	0.13%	0.26%	0.55%	0.69%	1.45%	1.71%	2.62%	2.84%	3.23%	4.27%	5.22%	5.77%	6.21%	6.95%	6.38%	7.64%	7.57%	8.46%	8.07%	8.05%	6.15%	5.53%
New Orleans Saints	—	0.03%	0.01%	0.08%	0.12%	0.19%	0.35%	0.63%	0.97%	1.46%	2.02%	2.53%	2.88%	4.05%	5.17%	6.06%	5.83%	7.28%	6.76%	7.76%	7.51%	8.31%	8.11%	8.26%	6.59%	7.04%
New York Giants	—	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.17%	0.32%	0.53%	0.63%	0.85%	1.24%	1.89%	2.05%	2.66%	3.51%	4.05%	4.51%	5.51%	6.23%	7.76%	7.91%	8.32%	7.97%	9.19%	8.11%	9.46%	6.94%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.05%	0.19%	0.31%	0.43%	0.46%	1.16%	1.12%	1.80%	2.01%	3.09%	3.19%	4.13%	4.04%	5.37%	5.17%	7.69%	7.60%	8.21%	8.63%	8.81%	8.81%	9.53%	8.11%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.10%	0.16%	0.20%	0.33%	0.59%	0.92%	1.24%	1.50%	2.18%	2.58%	3.41%	3.90%	5.71%	5.66%	8.25%	9.22%	10.47%	12.13%	13.93%	17.38%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	—	0.04%	0.10%	0.12%	0.29%	0.44%	0.54%	0.63%	1.05%	1.23%	1.75%	2.09%	2.86%	3.73%	5.19%	5.86%	8.21%	10.20%	11.26%	13.34%	14.25%	16.78%
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.05%	0.17%	0.25%	0.37%	0.54%	0.93%	1.23%	1.80%	2.20%	2.98%	3.80%	4.12%	5.57%	7.30%	8.86%	10.68%	12.12%	16.02%	20.99%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.83%	23.38%	11.79%	15.62%	12.38%
Oakland Raiders	23.77%	28.05%	35.06%	2.78%	10.34%
Miami Dolphins	22.48%	25.31%	21.54%	8.86%	21.81%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.50%	7.93%	4.96%	29.83%	47.78%
Buffalo Bills	3.53%	7.12%	10.18%	13.13%	66.04%
Houston Oilers	1.76%	2.02%	1.73%	10.81%	83.68%
Denver Broncos	0.82%	2.26%	4.88%	6.03%	86.01%
Baltimore Colts	0.72%	2.03%	3.63%	5.96%	87.66%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.39%	0.96%	3.43%	3.73%	91.49%
New England Patriots	0.12%	0.68%	1.66%	2.04%	95.50%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.20%	0.75%	0.77%	98.23%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.05%	0.31%	0.16%	99.46%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.28%	99.62%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	42.62%	29.03%	20.27%	2.61%	5.47%
Los Angeles Rams	22.36%	27.82%	36.66%	2.89%	10.27%
Dallas Cowboys	17.24%	18.04%	12.86%	22.48%	29.38%
Washington Redskins	9.97%	11.80%	10.24%	24.07%	43.92%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.67%	7.10%	6.23%	20.52%	61.48%
Detroit Lions	1.53%	2.46%	3.33%	13.16%	79.52%
San Francisco 49ers	1.28%	2.66%	6.85%	7.83%	81.38%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.13%	0.40%	0.63%	2.23%	96.61%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.10%	0.55%	1.10%	98.18%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%	0.24%	1.12%	1.00%	97.58%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.19%	0.46%	1.27%	98.04%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.15%	0.77%	0.76%	98.29%
Chicago Bears	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	99.88%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	87.62%	61.99%	41.47%	24.17%
Minnesota Vikings	94.53%	65.47%	37.46%	19.30%
Los Angeles Rams	89.73%	60.81%	35.13%	18.62%
Oakland Raiders	89.66%	45.67%	21.58%	10.55%
Miami Dolphins	78.19%	40.97%	19.24%	9.10%
Dallas Cowboys	70.62%	32.44%	14.66%	6.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	52.22%	23.67%	8.48%	3.66%
St. Louis Cardinals	38.52%	15.05%	6.51%	2.74%
Buffalo Bills	33.96%	11.56%	3.97%	1.43%
Washington Redskins	56.08%	16.12%	4.41%	1.32%
Houston Oilers	16.32%	6.94%	2.53%	1.08%
Baltimore Colts	12.34%	4.79%	1.97%	0.89%
Detroit Lions	20.48%	5.23%	1.12%	0.24%
San Francisco 49ers	18.62%	3.01%	0.45%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.51%	1.08%	0.20%	0.05%
New England Patriots	4.50%	0.49%	0.14%	0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.39%	0.61%	0.11%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	13.99%	2.62%	0.40%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	1.82%	0.38%	0.05%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	2.42%	0.51%	0.07%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	1.71%	0.14%	—	—
New York Giants	1.96%	0.21%	0.03%	—
New York Jets	1.77%	0.16%	0.01%	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.38%	0.03%	—	—
San Diego Chargers	0.54%	0.03%	0.01%	—
Chicago Bears	0.12%	0.02%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			1.09%		0.29%	0.31%	0.14%				1.47%	1.48%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills			2.56%	0.03%	0.77%	0.66%	0.49%				3.87%	3.14%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.01%	2.83%			1.31%		1.04%	7.88%	0.51%	0.28%	8.72%		0.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)					0.01%			0.01%			0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.12%	0.26%	0.60%			0.21%		0.67%	0.05%	0.07%		0.64%
Houston Oilers	0.32%	0.84%			0.46%		0.26%	2.10%	0.12%	0.04%	2.79%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.15%	0.21%			0.05%		0.39%	0.03%	0.01%		0.23%
Miami Dolphins			12.01%	0.25%	2.95%	3.82%	2.26%				9.57%	10.00%	0.11%
New England Patriots			0.10%		0.06%	0.05%	0.03%				0.14%	0.11%
New York Jets			0.02%		0.02%	0.01%					0.06%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	2.15%	7.17%	11.94%	0.07%		4.27%		8.43%	1.33%	0.34%		9.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.94%	11.15%			5.50%		3.21%	17.74%	1.97%	0.87%	17.36%		0.25%
San Diego Chargers			0.02%									0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.17%	0.03%			0.14%			0.01%		0.05%	0.11%
Chicago Bears			0.01%										0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.71%	0.04%		4.66%	0.41%	11.14%	10.43%	0.47%			4.58%
Detroit Lions	0.03%		1.36%			1.24%		0.02%	0.06%	0.09%	0.54%	0.48%	1.41%
Green Bay Packers			0.11%			0.07%					0.04%	0.03%	0.13%
Los Angeles Rams		0.05%	18.25%	6.28%	0.53%		5.86%		0.62%	1.12%		10.43%	17.67%
Minnesota Vikings	0.67%		17.61%			6.19%		0.66%	1.05%	1.53%	6.19%	12.06%	19.51%
New Orleans Saints			0.07%	0.03%	0.01%								0.03%
New York Giants				0.03%		0.07%	0.09%	0.01%			0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.12%	0.02%	0.17%	0.19%	0.02%			0.09%
San Francisco 49ers			0.60%	0.26%	0.03%		0.56%		0.02%	0.03%		0.42%	1.09%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.20%			1.67%	0.20%	5.07%	6.28%	0.12%			1.51%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.01%		2.17%	0.24%	4.97%	5.51%	0.27%			2.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		0.15%	0.15%		0.04%	0.07%		0.51%			0.51%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	0.05%		0.50%		0.04%	0.16%	0.06%	0.97%	0.01%	0.01%	1.14%	1.02%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.22%	0.53%			0.13%	0.32%	0.04%	1.77%		0.02%	2.08%	3.37%
Denver Broncos	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%		0.01%		0.09%			0.07%	0.13%
Houston Oilers	0.03%	0.19%	0.25%		0.07%		0.03%	0.53%		0.01%	0.51%	0.91%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.05%					0.01%			0.04%	0.10%
Miami Dolphins	0.62%	1.76%	2.61%	0.01%	0.45%	0.75%	0.19%		0.06%	0.02%	6.34%	6.43%
New England Patriots		0.02%	0.05%					0.02%			0.05%
New York Jets								0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.79%	1.89%	2.95%		0.57%	0.88%	0.18%	6.17%	0.11%	0.02%		8.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.09%	3.03%	8.58%	0.01%	0.91%	2.22%	0.38%	11.65%	0.17%	0.07%	13.35%		0.01%
San Diego Chargers					0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%					0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%			0.39%	0.04%	4.18%	5.53%	0.02%	0.03%	0.11%	0.26%	1.64%	2.44%
Detroit Lions			0.13%		0.01%	0.25%	0.46%	0.01%			0.07%	0.06%	0.13%
Green Bay Packers			0.03%				0.01%						0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.13%	0.01%	6.57%	1.55%	0.14%		18.46%	0.03%	0.05%	0.16%	0.70%	3.41%	3.92%
Minnesota Vikings	0.25%		8.33%	1.87%	0.10%	18.03%		0.06%	0.08%	0.15%	1.22%	3.04%	4.33%
New York Giants	0.01%		0.01%										0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.04%				0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	0.20%			0.01%		0.01%	0.03%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.01%	1.40%	0.13%	0.03%	1.90%	1.97%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.17%		0.83%
Washington Redskins	0.03%		1.23%	0.14%		1.17%	1.32%	0.01%		0.03%	0.13%	0.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%									0.01%
Baltimore Colts					0.16%		0.03%	0.01%			0.30%		0.29%								0.01%	0.05%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills					0.24%		0.03%				0.39%		0.48%								0.02%	0.17%	0.10%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.63%		0.08%				1.28%		1.19%		0.01%						0.05%	0.22%	0.20%
Dallas Cowboys		0.13%	0.40%	0.68%		0.05%			0.22%	0.02%		1.44%		0.02%			1.49%		2.16%	0.01%
Denver Broncos											0.03%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%						0.04%					0.05%		0.10%
Green Bay Packers				0.01%															0.01%
Houston Oilers					0.20%		0.01%				0.36%		0.38%								0.02%	0.06%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs					0.02%						0.01%		0.02%
Los Angeles Rams		0.46%	0.91%	1.90%		0.16%			0.49%	0.05%		3.83%		0.03%			4.31%		6.48%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%				1.52%		0.12%	0.01%			3.01%		3.19%					0.02%			0.06%	0.65%	0.51%
Minnesota Vikings		0.41%	1.04%	1.81%		0.10%			0.65%	0.06%		3.85%		0.03%		0.01%	4.22%		7.12%
New England Patriots					0.01%						0.02%											0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%				1.57%		0.15%				3.32%		3.89%		0.01%			0.01%			0.07%	0.86%	0.65%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.01%		0.01%								0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%				3.69%		0.46%	0.01%			7.79%		8.72%		0.01%			0.03%			0.16%	1.75%	1.53%
San Francisco 49ers			0.02%	0.01%								0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.04%	0.09%	0.27%		0.04%			0.07%	0.02%		0.59%					0.62%		1.00%
Washington Redskins		0.02%	0.06%	0.11%		0.01%			0.02%			0.36%		0.01%			0.32%		0.41%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Pittsburgh Steelers	73.63%	51.95%	28.65%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	68.55%	35.87%	19.16%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	64.08%	36.86%	18.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Oakland Raiders	62.93%	23.50%	10.80%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	35.92%	14.09%	6.21%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
St. Louis Cardinals	31.45%	13.18%	5.83%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Colts	26.37%	13.11%	5.50%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	37.07%	11.44%	4.87%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts				26.37%
Cincinnati Bengals			37.07%
Oakland Raiders		62.93%
Pittsburgh Steelers	73.63%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys			35.92%
Los Angeles Rams				68.55%
Minnesota Vikings	64.08%
St. Louis Cardinals		31.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		5.50%	7.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.06%			7.38%
Oakland Raiders	9.20%			14.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers		20.13%	31.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys		8.67%		5.42%
Los Angeles Rams	15.94%		19.93%
Minnesota Vikings		24.01%		12.85%
St. Louis Cardinals	5.89%		7.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals
Baltimore Colts			0.86%	1.90%	1.95%			0.79%
Cincinnati Bengals			0.79%	1.47%	1.73%			0.88%
Dallas Cowboys	0.95%	0.84%				1.70%	2.72%
Los Angeles Rams	2.87%	2.44%				4.68%	9.17%
Minnesota Vikings	2.71%	2.57%				4.98%	8.72%
Oakland Raiders			1.82%	3.44%	3.83%			1.71%
Pittsburgh Steelers			4.41%	9.90%	10.37%			3.97%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.08%	0.72%				1.34%	2.69%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28.65% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

61.25%

Win Prob

68.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.20%

Win Prob

54.32%

Los Angeles Rams 19.16% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.56%

Win Prob

45.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

47.86%

Win Prob

48.09%

Minnesota Vikings 18.98% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

65.14%

Win Prob

54.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.94%

Win Prob

45.68%

Oakland Raiders 10.80% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

60.85%

Win Prob

31.01%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

35.46%

Win Prob

43.47%

Dallas Cowboys 6.21% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

61.53%

Win Prob

35.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

43.80%

Win Prob

38.15%

St. Louis Cardinals 5.83% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

55.31%

Win Prob

36.20%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

46.14%

Win Prob

40.39%

Baltimore Colts 5.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

58.05%

Win Prob

45.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

35.45%

Win Prob

41.85%

Cincinnati Bengals 4.87% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

64.51%

Win Prob

26.83%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

35.52%

Win Prob

40.23%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1975-09-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1410.25	1510.80	30.87%	68.79%	-9.72	0-1
1975-09-28	Detroit Lions	L 14-17	1400.53	1538.12	35.94%	63.73%	-11.32	0-2
1975-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1389.21	1382.26	56.31%	43.35%	+20.84	1-2
1975-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1410.05	1483.46	34.30%	65.36%	+44.39	2-2
1975-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-22	1454.44	1596.86	25.98%	73.69%	-18.30	2-3
1975-10-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1436.14	1610.09	31.27%	68.39%	-15.04	2-4
1975-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-23	1421.10	1333.62	56.85%	42.81%	-41.29	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 0-38	1379.81	1695.70	11.45%	88.22%	-12.85	2-6
1975-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-16	1366.96	1647.56	19.76%	79.90%	-10.79	2-7
1975-11-23	Denver Broncos	W 35-21	1356.17	1443.38	42.85%	56.82%	+38.60	3-7
1975-11-30	@ Oakland Raiders	L 34-37	1394.77	1663.65	14.49%	85.17%	-4.57	3-8
1975-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 27-30	1390.20	1622.65	24.52%	75.14%	-7.73	3-9
1975-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-9	1382.47	1417.82	50.26%	49.40%	+42.09	4-9
1975-12-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-22	1424.56	1394.36	48.66%	51.00%	-26.52	4-10
1975-09-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-7	1399.73	1370.26	48.56%	51.11%	+49.11	1-0
1975-09-28	Oakland Raiders	L 20-31	1448.84	1642.69	28.86%	70.80%	-17.41	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1431.43	1573.27	26.04%	73.62%	-15.71	1-2
1975-10-12	Buffalo Bills	L 31-38	1415.72	1616.50	28.05%	71.61%	-13.50	1-3
1975-10-19	@ New England Patriots	L 10-21	1402.22	1388.19	46.34%	53.32%	-27.92	1-4
1975-10-26	@ New York Jets	W 45-28	1374.30	1451.34	33.83%	65.83%	+49.27	2-4
1975-11-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-7	1423.57	1319.90	69.18%	30.49%	+20.74	3-4
1975-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 42-35	1444.31	1591.52	25.45%	74.21%	+35.64	4-4
1975-11-16	New York Jets	W 52-19	1479.95	1387.40	67.80%	31.86%	+33.28	5-4
1975-11-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1513.23	1712.59	20.18%	79.48%	+57.71	6-4
1975-11-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-14	1570.94	1512.44	63.40%	36.26%	+24.66	7-4
1975-12-07	@ New York Giants	W 21-0	1595.60	1328.15	78.68%	20.99%	+17.51	8-4
1975-12-14	Miami Dolphins	W 10-7	1613.11	1686.88	44.75%	54.91%	+17.26	9-4
1975-12-21	New England Patriots	W 34-21	1630.37	1369.38	84.60%	15.06%	+9.89	10-4
1975-09-21	New York Jets	W 42-14	1504.60	1477.07	59.19%	40.47%	+38.92	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-21	1543.52	1667.66	28.05%	71.61%	+38.99	2-0
1975-10-05	Denver Broncos	W 38-14	1582.51	1538.25	61.49%	38.17%	+33.99	3-0
1975-10-12	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-31	1616.50	1415.72	71.61%	28.05%	+13.50	4-0
1975-10-20	New York Giants	L 14-17	1630.00	1382.89	83.55%	16.11%	-26.27	4-1
1975-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 30-35	1603.73	1686.26	43.51%	56.15%	-17.67	4-2
1975-11-02	@ New York Jets	W 24-23	1586.06	1402.07	69.62%	30.04%	+5.46	5-2
1975-11-09	Baltimore Colts	L 35-42	1591.52	1444.31	74.21%	25.45%	-35.64	5-3
1975-11-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-33	1555.88	1610.12	36.83%	62.84%	-20.08	5-4
1975-11-23	New England Patriots	W 45-31	1535.80	1443.21	67.81%	31.86%	+21.67	6-4
1975-11-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 32-14	1557.47	1611.60	36.84%	62.82%	+48.38	7-4
1975-12-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-31	1605.85	1666.17	36.02%	63.65%	-20.70	7-5
1975-12-14	@ New England Patriots	W 34-14	1585.15	1393.02	70.59%	29.07%	+23.64	8-5
1975-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-35	1608.79	1683.86	44.56%	55.10%	-37.98	8-6
1975-09-21	Baltimore Colts	L 7-35	1370.26	1399.73	51.11%	48.56%	-49.11	0-1
1975-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-13	1321.15	1460.95	35.64%	64.02%	+16.44	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-28	1337.59	1644.08	12.01%	87.66%	-10.94	1-2
1975-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-27	1326.65	1507.65	21.94%	77.73%	-17.85	1-3
1975-10-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-34	1308.80	1671.61	8.98%	90.68%	-9.10	1-4
1975-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-13	1299.70	1679.49	12.21%	87.45%	-4.45	1-5
1975-11-02	Miami Dolphins	L 13-46	1295.25	1703.93	10.54%	89.12%	-11.03	1-6
1975-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 27-14	1284.22	1388.57	40.45%	59.21%	+38.76	2-6
1975-11-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1322.98	1422.82	30.96%	68.71%	-29.79	2-7
1975-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-38	1293.19	1658.35	8.87%	90.79%	-8.55	2-8
1975-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1284.64	1389.02	30.40%	69.26%	-25.33	2-9
1975-12-07	Detroit Lions	W 25-21	1259.31	1489.82	24.73%	74.93%	+27.20	3-9
1975-12-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-34	1286.51	1601.03	16.85%	82.82%	-11.47	3-10
1975-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 42-17	1275.04	1280.45	43.57%	56.09%	+50.91	4-10
1975-09-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-17	1515.51	1455.57	63.60%	36.07%	+17.35	1-0
1975-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-0	1532.86	1414.33	61.16%	38.50%	+32.06	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-19	1564.92	1514.09	51.63%	48.03%	+12.34	3-0
1975-10-12	New England Patriots	W 27-10	1577.26	1405.32	76.82%	22.84%	+17.14	4-0
1975-10-19	Oakland Raiders	W 14-10	1594.40	1586.13	56.49%	43.17%	+15.69	5-0
1975-10-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1610.09	1436.14	68.39%	31.27%	+15.04	6-0
1975-11-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1625.13	1687.14	46.43%	53.23%	-20.66	6-1
1975-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1604.47	1428.81	68.60%	31.06%	+5.65	7-1
1975-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 33-24	1610.12	1555.88	62.84%	36.83%	+20.08	8-1
1975-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-35	1630.20	1279.91	85.51%	14.15%	-53.77	8-2
1975-11-30	Houston Oilers	W 23-19	1576.43	1566.87	56.68%	42.99%	+15.62	9-2
1975-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-0	1592.05	1443.57	65.16%	34.51%	+34.93	10-2
1975-12-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-35	1626.98	1780.72	24.74%	74.92%	-20.63	10-3
1975-12-21	San Diego Chargers	W 47-17	1606.35	1316.90	86.58%	13.08%	+13.05	11-3
1975-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1455.57	1515.51	36.07%	63.60%	-17.35	0-1
1975-09-28	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-42	1438.22	1611.88	31.31%	68.35%	-32.20	0-2
1975-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-42	1406.02	1628.66	25.58%	74.08%	-27.93	0-3
1975-10-12	Houston Oilers	L 10-40	1378.09	1501.75	37.80%	61.86%	-37.63	0-4
1975-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 15-16	1340.46	1489.24	25.28%	74.38%	-4.60	0-5
1975-10-26	Washington Redskins	L 7-23	1335.86	1593.57	21.93%	77.73%	-15.96	0-6
1975-11-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-21	1319.90	1423.57	30.49%	69.18%	-20.75	0-7
1975-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-21	1299.15	1515.07	18.69%	80.97%	-11.28	0-8
1975-11-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-38	1287.87	1639.13	9.54%	90.12%	-7.96	0-9
1975-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-23	1279.91	1630.20	14.15%	85.51%	+53.77	1-9
1975-11-30	New Orleans Saints	W 17-16	1333.68	1324.33	56.65%	43.01%	+7.82	2-9
1975-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-31	1341.50	1776.55	6.11%	93.55%	-4.17	2-10
1975-12-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-14	1337.33	1445.17	39.97%	59.70%	+55.26	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-21	1392.59	1591.00	20.27%	79.39%	-12.23	3-11
1975-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 18-7	1579.74	1575.85	55.87%	43.79%	+26.39	1-0
1975-09-28	St. Louis Cardinals	W 37-31	1606.13	1520.52	66.93%	32.74%	+14.58	2-0
1975-10-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 36-10	1620.71	1549.44	54.56%	45.11%	+41.78	3-0
1975-10-12	@ New York Giants	W 13-7	1662.49	1392.12	78.95%	20.71%	+9.23	4-0
1975-10-19	Green Bay Packers	L 17-19	1671.72	1384.57	86.43%	13.23%	-22.19	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1649.53	1457.73	70.56%	29.11%	+9.17	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-30	1658.70	1609.54	51.39%	48.27%	-22.86	5-2
1975-11-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-34	1635.84	1491.28	73.92%	25.74%	-23.24	5-3
1975-11-16	@ New England Patriots	W 34-31	1612.60	1453.65	66.51%	33.16%	+10.44	6-3
1975-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1623.04	1424.59	79.40%	20.27%	+11.67	7-3
1975-11-30	New York Giants	W 14-3	1634.71	1335.68	87.19%	12.47%	+7.53	8-3
1975-12-07	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-31	1642.24	1563.22	55.66%	44.00%	-37.81	8-4
1975-12-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-10	1604.43	1630.38	51.61%	48.05%	+39.99	9-4
1975-12-21	@ New York Jets	W 31-21	1644.42	1314.21	84.05%	15.62%	+8.99	10-4
1975-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-33	1505.02	1462.69	61.23%	38.44%	+13.97	1-0
1975-09-29	Green Bay Packers	W 23-13	1518.99	1439.29	66.18%	33.49%	+19.26	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-38	1538.25	1582.51	38.17%	61.49%	-33.99	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-20	1504.26	1656.59	24.89%	74.77%	-15.02	2-2
1975-10-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 16-15	1489.24	1340.46	74.38%	25.28%	+4.60	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-26	1493.84	1476.72	46.78%	52.88%	-30.64	3-3
1975-11-02	Oakland Raiders	L 17-42	1463.20	1586.57	37.84%	61.82%	-34.39	3-4
1975-11-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-17	1428.81	1604.47	31.06%	68.60%	-5.65	3-5
1975-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1423.16	1279.79	64.49%	35.17%	+20.22	4-5
1975-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-35	1443.38	1356.17	56.82%	42.85%	-38.59	4-6
1975-11-30	San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1404.79	1255.77	74.41%	25.25%	+7.95	5-6
1975-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1412.74	1668.22	15.47%	84.19%	-7.45	5-7
1975-12-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 25-10	1405.29	1408.64	54.85%	44.82%	+31.53	6-7
1975-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-14	1436.82	1669.61	17.26%	82.40%	-3.14	6-8
1975-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-16	1503.39	1474.02	48.54%	51.12%	+34.73	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1538.12	1400.53	63.73%	35.94%	+11.32	2-0
1975-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-36	1549.44	1620.71	45.11%	54.56%	-41.79	2-1
1975-10-12	Chicago Bears	W 27-7	1507.65	1326.65	77.73%	21.94%	+17.85	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-25	1525.50	1667.92	25.98%	73.69%	-11.57	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Houston Oilers	L 8-24	1513.93	1556.54	38.40%	61.27%	-27.92	3-3
1975-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-17	1486.01	1436.60	51.43%	48.24%	+29.06	4-3
1975-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-10	1515.07	1299.15	80.97%	18.69%	+11.28	5-3
1975-11-16	Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1526.35	1349.82	77.28%	22.38%	+7.06	6-3
1975-11-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-24	1533.41	1496.85	49.58%	50.09%	-15.60	6-4
1975-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 0-20	1517.81	1666.89	34.43%	65.24%	-27.99	6-5
1975-12-07	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-25	1489.82	1259.31	74.93%	24.73%	-27.20	6-6
1975-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-10	1462.62	1721.24	21.84%	77.82%	+37.37	7-6
1975-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-24	1499.99	1612.50	39.32%	60.34%	-23.70	7-7
1975-09-21	Detroit Lions	L 16-30	1474.02	1503.39	51.12%	48.54%	-34.73	0-1
1975-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1439.29	1518.99	33.49%	66.18%	-19.26	0-2
1975-10-05	Miami Dolphins	L 7-31	1420.03	1605.74	29.84%	69.83%	-26.58	0-3
1975-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 19-20	1393.45	1361.42	48.93%	50.74%	-8.88	0-4
1975-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-17	1384.57	1671.72	13.23%	86.43%	+22.19	1-4
1975-10-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1406.76	1680.71	20.37%	79.29%	-6.42	1-5
1975-11-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-28	1400.34	1683.94	19.49%	80.18%	-11.77	1-6
1975-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-27	1388.57	1284.22	59.21%	40.45%	-38.75	1-7
1975-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1349.82	1526.35	22.38%	77.28%	-7.06	1-8
1975-11-23	New York Giants	W 40-14	1342.76	1381.94	49.71%	49.95%	+46.26	2-8
1975-11-30	Chicago Bears	W 28-7	1389.02	1284.64	69.26%	30.40%	+25.34	3-8
1975-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-24	1414.36	1710.69	12.64%	87.02%	-10.55	3-9
1975-12-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 5-22	1403.81	1700.81	12.60%	87.07%	-9.45	3-10
1975-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-13	1394.36	1424.56	51.00%	48.66%	+26.51	4-10
1975-09-21	@ New England Patriots	W 7-0	1462.81	1494.76	39.86%	59.80%	+28.72	1-0
1975-09-28	San Diego Chargers	W 33-17	1491.53	1392.14	68.65%	31.01%	+22.56	2-0
1975-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-21	1514.09	1564.92	48.03%	51.63%	-12.34	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 40-10	1501.75	1378.09	61.86%	37.80%	+37.63	3-1
1975-10-19	Washington Redskins	W 13-10	1539.38	1610.73	45.10%	54.57%	+17.16	4-1
1975-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-8	1556.54	1513.93	61.27%	38.40%	+27.92	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-13	1584.46	1507.36	55.39%	44.28%	+16.09	6-1
1975-11-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1600.55	1707.79	30.05%	69.61%	-14.46	6-2
1975-11-16	Miami Dolphins	W 20-19	1586.09	1724.17	35.87%	63.79%	+11.58	7-2
1975-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-32	1597.67	1739.92	35.32%	64.34%	-30.80	7-3
1975-11-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-23	1566.87	1576.43	42.99%	56.68%	-15.62	7-4
1975-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1551.25	1445.16	59.46%	40.21%	+27.34	8-4
1975-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-26	1578.59	1675.67	31.30%	68.36%	+12.41	9-4
1975-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-10	1591.00	1392.59	79.39%	20.27%	+12.23	10-4
1975-09-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 33-37	1462.69	1505.02	38.44%	61.23%	-13.97	0-1
1975-09-28	New York Jets	L 24-30	1448.72	1438.16	56.82%	42.84%	-25.27	0-2
1975-10-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1423.45	1444.26	52.35%	47.31%	-39.19	0-3
1975-10-12	Oakland Raiders	W 42-10	1384.26	1668.52	19.43%	80.23%	+82.39	1-3
1975-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 12-10	1466.65	1353.29	60.46%	39.21%	+10.07	2-3
1975-10-26	Denver Broncos	W 26-13	1476.72	1493.84	52.88%	46.78%	+30.64	3-3
1975-11-02	Houston Oilers	L 13-17	1507.36	1584.46	44.28%	55.39%	-16.08	3-4
1975-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1491.28	1635.84	25.74%	73.92%	+23.24	4-4
1975-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-28	1514.52	1722.25	19.42%	80.25%	-17.67	4-5
1975-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1496.85	1533.41	50.09%	49.58%	+15.59	5-5
1975-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-28	1512.44	1570.94	36.26%	63.40%	-24.66	5-6
1975-12-07	San Diego Chargers	L 20-28	1487.78	1247.81	82.99%	16.68%	-42.61	5-7
1975-12-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-40	1445.17	1337.33	59.70%	39.97%	-55.25	5-8
1975-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-28	1389.92	1663.26	14.17%	85.49%	-7.30	5-9
1975-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-18	1575.85	1579.74	43.79%	55.87%	-26.38	0-1
1975-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-14	1549.47	1468.06	56.00%	43.67%	+23.80	1-1
1975-10-05	Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1573.27	1431.43	73.62%	26.04%	+15.71	2-1
1975-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-10	1588.98	1361.17	74.64%	25.02%	+7.88	3-1
1975-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-7	1596.86	1454.44	73.69%	25.98%	+18.30	4-1
1975-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 38-14	1615.16	1346.56	85.15%	14.51%	+12.94	5-1
1975-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-3	1628.10	1448.57	69.08%	30.58%	+34.74	6-1
1975-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1662.84	1407.54	84.18%	15.49%	-15.28	6-2
1975-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-7	1647.56	1366.96	79.90%	19.76%	+10.79	7-2
1975-11-23	Chicago Bears	W 38-10	1658.35	1293.19	90.79%	8.87%	+8.54	8-2
1975-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1666.89	1517.81	65.24%	34.43%	+28.00	9-2
1975-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 14-7	1694.89	1316.51	87.36%	12.30%	+5.92	10-2
1975-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 22-5	1700.81	1403.81	87.07%	12.60%	+9.46	11-2
1975-12-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-3	1710.27	1801.35	42.30%	57.36%	+27.55	12-2
1975-09-22	Oakland Raiders	L 21-31	1618.48	1610.26	56.49%	43.18%	-32.43	0-1
1975-09-28	@ New England Patriots	W 22-14	1586.05	1466.04	61.37%	38.30%	+19.69	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-7	1605.74	1420.03	69.83%	29.84%	+26.58	2-1
1975-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-16	1632.32	1496.23	72.98%	26.68%	+13.73	3-1
1975-10-19	@ New York Jets	W 43-0	1646.05	1491.55	65.94%	33.73%	+40.21	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-30	1686.26	1603.73	56.15%	43.51%	+17.67	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 46-13	1703.93	1295.25	89.12%	10.54%	+11.03	6-1
1975-11-09	New York Jets	W 27-7	1714.96	1396.61	88.36%	11.30%	+9.21	7-1
1975-11-16	@ Houston Oilers	L 19-20	1724.17	1586.09	63.79%	35.87%	-11.58	7-2
1975-11-23	Baltimore Colts	L 17-33	1712.59	1513.23	79.48%	20.18%	-57.71	7-3
1975-12-01	New England Patriots	W 20-7	1654.88	1421.54	82.45%	17.21%	+11.29	8-3
1975-12-07	Buffalo Bills	W 31-21	1666.17	1605.85	63.65%	36.02%	+20.71	9-3
1975-12-14	@ Baltimore Colts	L 7-10	1686.88	1613.11	54.91%	44.75%	-17.27	9-4
1975-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 14-13	1669.61	1436.82	82.40%	17.26%	+3.14	10-4
1975-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-17	1594.75	1485.19	69.89%	29.77%	+17.13	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-10	1611.88	1438.22	68.35%	31.31%	+32.20	2-0
1975-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 28-3	1644.08	1337.59	87.66%	12.01%	+10.93	3-0
1975-10-12	New York Jets	W 29-21	1655.01	1504.45	74.58%	25.08%	+12.91	4-0
1975-10-19	Detroit Lions	W 25-19	1667.92	1525.50	73.69%	25.98%	+11.57	5-0
1975-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1679.49	1299.70	87.45%	12.21%	+4.45	6-0
1975-11-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-17	1683.94	1400.34	80.18%	19.49%	+11.76	7-0
1975-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-0	1695.70	1379.81	88.22%	11.45%	+12.85	8-0
1975-11-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-7	1708.55	1356.74	85.61%	14.05%	+9.22	9-0
1975-11-23	San Diego Chargers	W 28-13	1717.77	1259.57	94.27%	5.39%	+3.81	10-0
1975-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-31	1721.58	1611.76	59.97%	39.69%	-10.89	10-1
1975-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 24-3	1710.69	1414.36	87.02%	12.64%	+10.55	11-1
1975-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1721.24	1462.62	77.82%	21.84%	-37.38	11-2
1975-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-13	1683.86	1608.79	55.10%	44.56%	+37.98	12-2
1975-09-21	Houston Oilers	L 0-7	1494.76	1462.81	59.80%	39.86%	-28.72	0-1
1975-09-28	Miami Dolphins	L 14-22	1466.04	1586.05	38.30%	61.37%	-19.69	0-2
1975-10-05	@ New York Jets	L 7-36	1446.35	1463.42	41.93%	57.73%	-41.03	0-3
1975-10-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1405.32	1577.26	22.84%	76.82%	-17.13	0-4
1975-10-19	Baltimore Colts	W 21-10	1388.19	1402.22	53.32%	46.34%	+27.92	1-4
1975-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-16	1416.11	1462.81	48.63%	51.04%	+26.21	2-4
1975-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1442.32	1548.63	30.17%	69.50%	-14.51	2-5
1975-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-19	1427.81	1305.64	61.66%	38.00%	+25.84	3-5
1975-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 31-34	1453.65	1612.60	33.16%	66.51%	-10.44	3-6
1975-11-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-45	1443.21	1535.80	31.86%	67.81%	-21.67	3-7
1975-12-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1421.54	1654.88	17.21%	82.45%	-11.30	3-8
1975-12-07	New York Jets	L 28-30	1410.24	1323.46	67.08%	32.59%	-17.22	3-9
1975-12-14	Buffalo Bills	L 14-34	1393.02	1585.15	29.07%	70.59%	-23.64	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-34	1369.38	1630.37	15.06%	84.60%	-9.89	3-11
1975-09-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-41	1442.92	1589.66	25.50%	74.16%	-28.59	0-1
1975-09-28	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1414.33	1532.86	38.50%	61.16%	-32.07	0-2
1975-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-14	1382.26	1389.21	43.35%	56.31%	-20.84	0-3
1975-10-12	Green Bay Packers	W 20-19	1361.42	1393.45	50.74%	48.93%	+8.89	1-3
1975-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1370.31	1439.07	34.91%	64.76%	-23.75	1-4
1975-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-38	1346.56	1615.16	14.51%	85.15%	-12.94	1-5
1975-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1333.62	1421.10	42.81%	56.85%	+41.29	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-48	1374.91	1620.96	16.20%	83.47%	-18.17	2-6
1975-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-20	1356.74	1708.55	14.05%	85.61%	-9.22	2-7
1975-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-16	1347.52	1452.61	40.35%	59.32%	-23.19	2-8
1975-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-17	1324.33	1333.68	43.01%	56.65%	-7.82	2-9
1975-12-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-14	1316.51	1694.89	12.30%	87.36%	-5.92	2-10
1975-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 14-28	1310.59	1310.65	44.33%	55.33%	-30.14	2-11
1975-12-21	Chicago Bears	L 17-42	1280.45	1275.04	56.09%	43.57%	-50.91	2-12
1975-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-14	1398.48	1498.36	30.95%	68.71%	+37.41	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-49	1435.89	1618.26	21.80%	77.86%	-23.80	1-1
1975-10-05	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-26	1412.09	1505.94	31.70%	67.96%	-19.97	1-2
1975-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-13	1392.12	1662.49	20.71%	78.95%	-9.23	1-3
1975-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1382.89	1630.00	16.11%	83.55%	+26.27	2-3
1975-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	L 13-20	1409.16	1530.29	38.15%	61.52%	-18.34	2-4
1975-11-01	San Diego Chargers	W 35-24	1390.82	1327.08	64.10%	35.57%	+21.44	3-4
1975-11-09	Washington Redskins	L 13-21	1412.26	1632.40	25.86%	73.80%	-13.30	3-5
1975-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1398.96	1407.58	54.09%	45.57%	-17.02	3-6
1975-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-40	1381.94	1342.76	49.95%	49.71%	-46.26	3-7
1975-11-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-14	1335.68	1634.71	12.47%	87.19%	-7.53	3-8
1975-12-07	Baltimore Colts	L 0-21	1328.15	1595.60	20.99%	78.68%	-17.50	3-9
1975-12-14	New Orleans Saints	W 28-14	1310.65	1310.59	55.33%	44.33%	+30.14	4-9
1975-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-23	1340.79	1375.73	39.45%	60.22%	+18.93	5-9
1975-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-42	1477.07	1504.60	40.47%	59.19%	-38.91	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-24	1438.16	1448.72	42.84%	56.82%	+25.26	1-1
1975-10-05	New England Patriots	W 36-7	1463.42	1446.35	57.73%	41.93%	+41.03	2-1
1975-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-29	1504.45	1655.01	25.08%	74.58%	-12.90	2-2
1975-10-19	Miami Dolphins	L 0-43	1491.55	1646.05	33.73%	65.94%	-40.21	2-3
1975-10-26	Baltimore Colts	L 28-45	1451.34	1374.30	65.83%	33.83%	-49.27	2-4
1975-11-02	Buffalo Bills	L 23-24	1402.07	1586.06	30.04%	69.62%	-5.46	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1396.61	1714.96	11.30%	88.36%	-9.21	2-6
1975-11-16	@ Baltimore Colts	L 19-52	1387.40	1479.95	31.86%	67.80%	-33.28	2-7
1975-11-23	St. Louis Cardinals	L 6-37	1354.12	1586.78	24.50%	75.16%	-24.82	2-8
1975-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-20	1329.30	1770.72	8.89%	90.77%	-5.84	2-9
1975-12-07	@ New England Patriots	W 30-28	1323.46	1410.24	32.59%	67.08%	+17.22	3-9
1975-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-24	1340.68	1290.42	51.55%	48.12%	-26.47	3-10
1975-12-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1314.21	1644.42	15.62%	84.05%	-8.99	3-11
1975-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1610.26	1618.48	43.18%	56.49%	+32.43	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Baltimore Colts	W 31-20	1642.69	1448.84	70.80%	28.86%	+17.41	2-0
1975-10-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 6-0	1660.10	1369.58	80.79%	18.87%	+8.42	3-0
1975-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-42	1668.52	1384.26	80.23%	19.43%	-82.39	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-14	1586.13	1594.40	43.17%	56.49%	-15.69	3-2
1975-10-26	San Diego Chargers	W 25-0	1570.44	1343.21	81.94%	17.72%	+16.13	4-2
1975-11-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 42-17	1586.57	1463.20	61.82%	37.84%	+34.39	5-2
1975-11-09	New Orleans Saints	W 48-10	1620.96	1374.91	83.47%	16.20%	+18.17	6-2
1975-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-17	1639.13	1287.87	90.12%	9.54%	+7.96	7-2
1975-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-23	1647.09	1628.32	47.02%	52.64%	+16.56	8-2
1975-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-34	1663.65	1394.77	85.17%	14.49%	+4.57	9-2
1975-12-08	Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1668.22	1412.74	84.19%	15.47%	+7.45	10-2
1975-12-14	Houston Oilers	L 26-27	1675.67	1578.59	68.36%	31.30%	-12.41	10-3
1975-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1663.26	1389.92	85.49%	14.17%	+7.30	11-3
1975-09-21	New York Giants	L 14-23	1498.36	1398.48	68.71%	30.95%	-37.41	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-15	1460.95	1321.15	64.02%	35.64%	-16.43	0-2
1975-10-05	Washington Redskins	W 26-10	1444.52	1642.06	28.43%	71.23%	+51.71	1-2
1975-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-24	1496.23	1632.32	26.68%	72.98%	-13.72	1-3
1975-10-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-31	1482.51	1505.52	41.10%	58.56%	-24.78	1-4
1975-10-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1457.73	1649.53	29.11%	70.56%	-9.16	1-5
1975-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-42	1448.57	1628.10	30.58%	69.08%	-34.74	1-6
1975-11-09	St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1413.83	1563.15	34.40%	65.27%	-6.25	1-7
1975-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1407.58	1398.96	45.57%	54.09%	+17.01	2-7
1975-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1424.59	1623.04	20.27%	79.40%	-11.66	2-8
1975-11-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-17	1412.93	1475.79	46.31%	53.36%	+30.64	3-8
1975-12-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-31	1443.57	1592.05	34.51%	65.16%	-34.93	3-9
1975-12-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-25	1408.64	1405.29	44.82%	54.85%	-31.54	3-10
1975-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-3	1377.10	1590.38	18.92%	80.74%	+70.29	4-10
1975-09-21	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-0	1638.75	1421.05	73.53%	26.13%	+28.91	1-0
1975-09-28	Buffalo Bills	L 21-30	1667.66	1543.52	71.61%	28.05%	-39.00	1-1
1975-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-6	1628.66	1406.02	74.08%	25.58%	+27.93	2-1
1975-10-12	Denver Broncos	W 20-9	1656.59	1504.26	74.77%	24.89%	+15.02	3-1
1975-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 34-3	1671.61	1308.80	90.68%	8.98%	+9.10	4-1
1975-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-13	1680.71	1406.76	79.29%	20.37%	+6.43	5-1
1975-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-24	1687.14	1625.13	53.23%	46.43%	+20.65	6-1
1975-11-09	Houston Oilers	W 24-17	1707.79	1600.55	69.61%	30.05%	+14.46	7-1
1975-11-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-3	1722.25	1514.52	80.25%	19.42%	+17.67	8-1
1975-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 32-9	1739.92	1597.67	64.34%	35.32%	+30.80	9-1
1975-11-30	@ New York Jets	W 20-7	1770.72	1329.30	90.77%	8.89%	+5.83	10-1
1975-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-17	1776.55	1341.50	93.55%	6.11%	+4.17	11-1
1975-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-14	1780.72	1626.98	74.92%	24.74%	+20.63	12-1
1975-12-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-10	1801.35	1710.27	57.36%	42.30%	-27.56	12-2
1975-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-37	1421.05	1638.75	26.13%	73.53%	-28.91	0-1
1975-09-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 17-33	1392.14	1491.53	31.01%	68.65%	-22.56	0-2
1975-10-05	Oakland Raiders	L 0-6	1369.58	1660.10	18.87%	80.79%	-8.41	0-3
1975-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-13	1361.17	1588.98	25.02%	74.64%	-7.88	0-4
1975-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-12	1353.29	1466.65	39.21%	60.46%	-10.08	0-5
1975-10-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-25	1343.21	1570.44	17.72%	81.94%	-16.13	0-6
1975-11-01	@ New York Giants	L 24-35	1327.08	1390.82	35.57%	64.10%	-21.44	0-7
1975-11-09	New England Patriots	L 19-33	1305.64	1427.81	38.00%	61.66%	-25.85	0-8
1975-11-16	Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1279.79	1423.16	35.17%	64.49%	-20.22	0-9
1975-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-28	1259.57	1717.77	5.39%	94.27%	-3.80	0-10
1975-11-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1255.77	1404.79	25.25%	74.41%	-7.96	0-11
1975-12-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1247.81	1487.78	16.68%	82.99%	+42.61	1-11
1975-12-15	New York Jets	W 24-16	1290.42	1340.68	48.12%	51.55%	+26.48	2-11
1975-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-47	1316.90	1606.35	13.08%	86.58%	-13.05	2-12
1975-09-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-27	1485.19	1594.75	29.77%	69.89%	-17.13	0-1
1975-09-28	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-23	1468.06	1549.47	43.67%	56.00%	-23.80	0-2
1975-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-3	1444.26	1423.45	47.31%	52.35%	+39.20	1-2
1975-10-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-17	1483.46	1410.05	65.36%	34.30%	-44.39	1-3
1975-10-19	New Orleans Saints	W 35-21	1439.07	1370.31	64.76%	34.91%	+23.74	2-3
1975-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 16-24	1462.81	1416.11	51.04%	48.63%	-26.21	2-4
1975-11-02	Detroit Lions	L 17-28	1436.60	1486.01	48.24%	51.43%	-29.06	2-5
1975-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1407.54	1662.84	15.49%	84.18%	+15.28	3-5
1975-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1422.82	1322.98	68.71%	30.96%	+29.79	4-5
1975-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-6	1452.61	1347.52	59.32%	40.35%	+23.18	5-5
1975-11-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1475.79	1412.93	53.36%	46.31%	-30.63	5-6
1975-12-07	Houston Oilers	L 13-27	1445.16	1551.25	40.21%	59.46%	-27.34	5-7
1975-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 9-31	1417.82	1382.47	49.40%	50.26%	-42.09	5-8
1975-12-21	New York Giants	L 23-26	1375.73	1340.79	60.22%	39.45%	-18.93	5-9
1975-09-21	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1510.80	1410.25	68.79%	30.87%	+9.72	1-0
1975-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-37	1520.52	1606.13	32.74%	66.93%	-14.58	1-1
1975-10-05	New York Giants	W 26-14	1505.94	1412.09	67.96%	31.70%	+19.97	2-1
1975-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1525.91	1590.34	35.47%	64.19%	-20.39	2-2
1975-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-20	1505.52	1482.51	58.56%	41.10%	+24.77	3-2
1975-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 20-13	1530.29	1409.16	61.52%	38.15%	+18.34	4-2
1975-11-02	New England Patriots	W 24-17	1548.63	1442.32	69.50%	30.17%	+14.52	5-2
1975-11-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1563.15	1413.83	65.27%	34.40%	+6.25	6-2
1975-11-16	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1569.40	1645.70	44.39%	55.27%	+17.38	7-2
1975-11-23	@ New York Jets	W 37-6	1586.78	1354.12	75.16%	24.50%	+24.82	8-2
1975-11-27	Buffalo Bills	L 14-32	1611.60	1557.47	62.82%	36.84%	-48.38	8-3
1975-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1563.22	1642.24	44.00%	55.66%	+37.81	9-3
1975-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-20	1601.03	1286.51	82.82%	16.85%	+11.47	10-3
1975-12-21	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-13	1612.50	1499.99	60.34%	39.32%	+23.70	11-3
1975-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 41-3	1589.66	1442.92	74.16%	25.50%	+28.60	1-0
1975-09-28	New York Giants	W 49-13	1618.26	1435.89	77.86%	21.80%	+23.80	2-0
1975-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-26	1642.06	1444.52	71.23%	28.43%	-51.72	2-1
1975-10-13	St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-17	1590.34	1525.91	64.19%	35.47%	+20.39	3-1
1975-10-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1610.73	1539.38	54.57%	45.10%	-17.16	3-2
1975-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-7	1593.57	1335.86	77.73%	21.93%	+15.97	4-2
1975-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1609.54	1658.70	48.27%	51.39%	+22.86	5-2
1975-11-09	@ New York Giants	W 21-13	1632.40	1412.26	73.80%	25.86%	+13.30	6-2
1975-11-16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1645.70	1569.40	55.27%	44.39%	-17.38	6-3
1975-11-23	Oakland Raiders	L 23-26	1628.32	1647.09	52.64%	47.02%	-16.56	6-4
1975-11-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1611.76	1721.58	39.69%	59.97%	+10.89	7-4
1975-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1622.65	1390.20	75.14%	24.52%	+7.73	8-4
1975-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-31	1630.38	1604.43	48.05%	51.61%	-40.00	8-5
1975-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-26	1590.38	1377.10	80.74%	18.92%	-70.29	8-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1975-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1640.26	1773.79	27.10%	72.90%	-20.81	0-1
1975-12-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 28-31	1619.40	1670.56	37.40%	62.60%	-11.73	0-1
1975-12-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1653.41	1721.84	35.10%	64.90%	+20.35	1-0
1976-01-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-7	1673.76	1757.18	33.16%	66.84%	+66.26	2-0
1976-01-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1740.02	1807.72	40.38%	59.62%	-14.62	2-1
1975-12-27	St. Louis Cardinals	W 35-23	1737.82	1636.20	69.12%	30.88%	+19.36	1-0
1976-01-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1757.18	1673.76	66.84%	33.16%	-66.26	1-1
1975-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1721.84	1653.41	64.90%	35.10%	-20.35	0-1
1975-12-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-28	1670.56	1619.40	62.60%	37.40%	+11.72	1-0
1976-01-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1682.28	1794.61	29.58%	70.42%	-13.11	1-1
1975-12-27	Baltimore Colts	W 28-10	1773.79	1640.26	72.90%	27.10%	+20.82	1-0
1976-01-04	Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1794.61	1682.28	70.42%	29.58%	+13.11	2-0
1976-01-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1807.72	1740.02	59.62%	40.38%	+14.62	3-0
1975-12-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-35	1636.20	1737.82	30.88%	69.12%	-19.36	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1975-10-19	13.23%	Green Bay Packers	1384.57	19	@ Dallas Cowboys	1671.72	17
2	1975-11-23	14.15%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1279.91	35	Cincinnati Bengals	1630.20	23
3	1975-11-09	15.49%	San Francisco 49ers	1407.54	24	@ Los Angeles Rams	1662.84	23
4	1975-10-20	16.11%	New York Giants	1382.89	17	@ Buffalo Bills	1630.00	14
5	1975-12-07	16.68%	San Diego Chargers	1247.81	28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1487.78	20
6	1975-12-21	18.92%	Philadelphia Eagles	1377.10	26	@ Washington Redskins	1590.38	3
7	1975-10-12	19.43%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1384.26	42	Oakland Raiders	1668.52	10
8	1975-11-23	20.18%	Baltimore Colts	1513.23	33	@ Miami Dolphins	1712.59	17
9	1975-12-14	21.84%	@ Detroit Lions	1462.62	17	Minnesota Vikings	1721.24	10
10	1975-12-07	24.73%	@ Chicago Bears	1259.31	25	Detroit Lions	1489.82	21
11	1975-11-09	25.45%	Baltimore Colts	1444.31	42	@ Buffalo Bills	1591.52	35
12	1975-11-10	25.74%	Kansas City Chiefs	1491.28	34	@ Dallas Cowboys	1635.84	31
13	1975-09-28	28.05%	Buffalo Bills	1543.52	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1667.66	21
14	1975-10-05	28.43%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1444.52	26	Washington Redskins	1642.06	10
15	1975-09-21	30.95%	New York Giants	1398.48	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1498.36	14
16	1975-12-14	31.30%	Houston Oilers	1578.59	27	@ Oakland Raiders	1675.67	26
17	1975-12-07	32.59%	New York Jets	1323.46	30	@ New England Patriots	1410.24	28
18	1976-01-04 *	33.16%	Dallas Cowboys	1673.76	37	@ Los Angeles Rams	1757.18	7
19	1975-10-26	33.83%	Baltimore Colts	1374.30	45	@ New York Jets	1451.34	28
20	1975-10-12	34.30%	Atlanta Falcons	1410.05	17	@ San Francisco 49ers	1483.46	3
21	1975-12-28 *	35.10%	Dallas Cowboys	1653.41	17	@ Minnesota Vikings	1721.84	14
22	1975-09-28	35.64%	@ Chicago Bears	1321.15	15	Philadelphia Eagles	1460.95	13
23	1975-11-16	35.87%	@ Houston Oilers	1586.09	20	Miami Dolphins	1724.17	19
24	1975-11-27	36.84%	Buffalo Bills	1557.47	32	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1611.60	14
25	1975-12-21	39.45%	New York Giants	1340.79	26	@ San Francisco 49ers	1375.73	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1975-10-12	82.39	@ Kansas City Chiefs	42	1384.26	19.43%	Oakland Raiders	10	1668.52	80.23%
2	1975-12-21	70.29	Philadelphia Eagles	26	1377.10	18.92%	@ Washington Redskins	3	1590.38	80.74%
3	1976-01-04 *	66.26	Dallas Cowboys	37	1673.76	33.16%	@ Los Angeles Rams	7	1757.18	66.84%
4	1975-11-23	57.71	Baltimore Colts	33	1513.23	20.18%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1712.59	79.48%
5	1975-12-14	55.26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	40	1337.33	39.97%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1445.17	59.70%
6	1975-11-23	53.77	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	35	1279.91	14.15%	Cincinnati Bengals	23	1630.20	85.51%
7	1975-10-05	51.72	@ Philadelphia Eagles	26	1444.52	28.43%	Washington Redskins	10	1642.06	71.23%
8	1975-12-21	50.91	Chicago Bears	42	1275.04	43.57%	@ New Orleans Saints	17	1280.45	56.09%
9	1975-10-26	49.27	Baltimore Colts	45	1374.30	33.83%	@ New York Jets	28	1451.34	65.83%
10	1975-09-21	49.11	Baltimore Colts	35	1399.73	48.56%	@ Chicago Bears	7	1370.26	51.11%
11	1975-11-27	48.38	Buffalo Bills	32	1557.47	36.84%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	14	1611.60	62.82%
12	1975-11-23	46.26	@ Green Bay Packers	40	1342.76	49.71%	New York Giants	14	1381.94	49.95%
13	1975-10-12	44.39	Atlanta Falcons	17	1410.05	34.30%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1483.46	65.36%
14	1975-12-07	42.61	San Diego Chargers	28	1247.81	16.68%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	20	1487.78	82.99%
15	1975-12-14	42.09	@ Atlanta Falcons	31	1382.47	50.26%	San Francisco 49ers	9	1417.82	49.40%
16	1975-10-06	41.79	Dallas Cowboys	36	1620.71	54.56%	@ Detroit Lions	10	1549.44	45.11%
17	1975-11-02	41.29	@ New Orleans Saints	23	1333.62	42.81%	Atlanta Falcons	7	1421.10	56.85%
18	1975-10-05	41.03	@ New York Jets	36	1463.42	57.73%	New England Patriots	7	1446.35	41.93%
19	1975-10-19	40.21	Miami Dolphins	43	1646.05	65.94%	@ New York Jets	0	1491.55	33.73%
20	1975-12-13	40.00	@ Dallas Cowboys	31	1604.43	51.61%	Washington Redskins	10	1630.38	48.05%
21	1975-10-05	39.20	San Francisco 49ers	20	1444.26	47.31%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	3	1423.45	52.35%
22	1975-09-28	39.00	Buffalo Bills	30	1543.52	28.05%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	21	1667.66	71.61%
23	1975-09-21	38.92	@ Buffalo Bills	42	1504.60	59.19%	New York Jets	14	1477.07	40.47%
24	1975-11-09	38.76	@ Chicago Bears	27	1284.22	40.45%	Green Bay Packers	14	1388.57	59.21%
25	1975-11-23	38.60	@ Atlanta Falcons	35	1356.17	42.85%	Denver Broncos	21	1443.38	56.82%