1974 NFL Season

182 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1973

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Oilers

3.06 wins above expected

7 wins · 3.94 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Atlanta Falcons

2.91 wins below expected

3 wins · 5.91 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	3	1	.750	—	305	189	+116	9.43	+1.07
2	Houston Oilers	7	7	0	.500	3.5	236	282	-46	3.94	+3.06
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	7	0	.500	3.5	283	259	+24	8.50	-1.50
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	10	0	.286	6.5	251	344	-93	5.77	-1.77

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	3	.786	—	327	216	+111	10.89	+0.11
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	9	5	.643	2	264	244	+20	8.16	+0.84
3	New England Patriots	7	7	.500	4	348	289	+59	6.60	+0.40
4	New York Jets	7	7	.500	4	279	300	-21	5.41	+1.59
5	Baltimore Colts	2	12	.143	9	190	329	-139	4.03	-2.03

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	12	2	0	.857	—	355	228	+127	9.99	+2.01
2	Denver Broncos	7	6	1	.536	4.5	302	294	+8	7.39	+0.11
3	San Diego Chargers	5	9	0	.357	7	212	285	-73	3.97	+1.03
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	0	.357	7	233	293	-60	6.55	-1.55

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	10	4	.714	—	310	195	+115	9.96	+0.04
2	Detroit Lions	7	7	.500	3	256	270	-14	7.16	-0.16
3	Green Bay Packers	6	8	.429	4	210	206	+4	6.87	-0.87
4	Chicago Bears	4	10	.286	6	152	279	-127	5.08	-1.08

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	10	4	.714	—	320	196	+124	8.70	+1.30
2	St. Louis Cardinals Playoffs	10	4	.714	—	285	218	+67	8.34	+1.66
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	6	.571	2	297	235	+62	8.54	-0.54
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	7	.500	3	242	217	+25	5.94	+1.06
5	New York Giants	2	12	.143	8	195	299	-104	4.83	-2.83

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	4	.714	—	263	181	+82	9.90	+0.10
2	San Francisco 49ers	6	8	.429	4	226	236	-10	5.72	+0.28
3	New Orleans Saints	5	9	.357	5	166	263	-97	4.44	+0.56
4	Atlanta Falcons	3	11	.214	7	111	271	-160	5.91	-2.91

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 28

Miami Dolphins 26

Dec 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 32

Buffalo Bills 14

Dec 22

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Oakland Raiders 13

Dec 29

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 30

St. Louis Cardinals 14

Dec 21

Los Angeles Rams 19

Washington Redskins 10

Dec 22

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 14

Los Angeles Rams 10

Dec 29

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Minnesota Vikings 6

Jan 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1733	12	9.99	+2.01	95.27%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1724	11	10.89	+0.11	64.66%	4	8	10	11	12	13	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1672	10	8.70	+1.30	86.34%	3	6	8	9	10	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1666	10.5	9.43	+1.07	73.64%	2	6	8	9	11	12	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1648	10	9.96	+0.04	62.99%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1629	8	8.54	-0.54	50.47%	2	6	7	8	10	11	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1619	10	9.90	+0.10	64.31%	4	7	9	10	11	12	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1538	10	8.34	+1.66	90.08%	2	5	7	8	10	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1525	7	8.50	-1.50	28.56%	2	6	7	8	10	11	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1525	9	8.16	+0.84	78.70%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1508	7.5	7.39	+0.11	53.87%	1	4	6	7	9	10	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1505	7	7.16	-0.16	58.74%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1496	7	5.94	+1.06	81.98%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1489	7	6.60	+0.40	71.21%	1	4	5	7	8	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1473	6	5.72	+0.28	68.38%	0	3	4	6	7	9	11
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1461	7	5.41	+1.59	89.18%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1451	6	6.87	-0.87	42.70%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1441	7	3.94	+3.06	98.60%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1434	5	6.55	-1.55	28.74%	1	4	5	7	8	9	13
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1420	4	5.77	-1.77	24.74%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1409	5	4.44	+0.56	75.12%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1366	5	3.97	+1.03	83.73%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1357	3	5.91	-2.91	7.64%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1314	2	4.03	-2.03	18.50%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1303	2	4.83	-2.83	8.36%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1292	4	5.08	-1.08	38.44%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.55%	2.75%	3.02%	3.02%	1.37%	—	0.55%	11.26%
7–13	2.75%	4.40%	7.97%	2.20%	1.92%	0.55%	0.55%	20.33%
14–20	3.02%	7.97%	9.34%	6.04%	1.92%	1.65%	—	29.95%
21–27	3.02%	2.20%	6.04%	3.85%	4.12%	1.10%	—	20.33%
28–34	1.37%	1.92%	1.92%	4.12%	1.65%	0.27%	0.27%	11.54%
35–41	—	0.55%	1.65%	1.10%	0.27%	1.10%	0.27%	4.95%
42+	0.55%	0.55%	—	—	0.27%	0.27%	—	1.65%
Total	11.26%	20.33%	29.95%	20.33%	11.54%	4.95%	1.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.18	18.18	+0.00
SD	10.05	10.05	14.02
CV	0.55	0.55	—
Max	51	51	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	57.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	—	7.14%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	7.93	19.36	-11.43
SD	5.54	10.14	13.11
CV	0.70	0.52	—
Max	17	42	+7
Min	0	3	-35

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	28.57%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	—	14.29%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.57	23.50	-9.93
SD	11.37	11.24	13.84
CV	0.84	0.48	—
Max	38	45	+15
Min	0	6	-39

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.86	17.43	+1.43
SD	8.09	9.78	9.22
CV	0.43	0.56	—
Max	30	35	+20
Min	6	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
7–13	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	42.86%	21.43%	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	10.86	19.93	-9.07
SD	8.48	10.72	15.40
CV	0.78	0.54	—
Max	24	42	+14
Min	0	9	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.21	18.50	+1.71
SD	10.92	9.42	16.56
CV	0.54	0.51	—
Max	34	34	+27
Min	3	3	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.93	24.57	-6.64
SD	8.19	12.35	12.10
CV	0.46	0.50	—
Max	35	41	+13
Min	7	0	-26

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	14.29%	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.21	16.79	+4.43
SD	9.01	9.84	10.45
CV	0.42	0.59	—
Max	41	31	+24
Min	6	0	-8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	42.86%	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.57	21.00	+0.57
SD	11.87	10.34	14.12
CV	0.55	0.49	—
Max	37	42	+23
Min	0	6	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	14.29%	57.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	19.29	-1.00
SD	7.06	7.44	9.00
CV	0.39	0.39	—
Max	34	35	+17
Min	6	7	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	14.29%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	14.71	+0.29
SD	8.24	10.89	15.31
CV	0.55	0.74	—
Max	34	36	+34
Min	3	0	-22

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.86	20.14	-3.29
SD	10.05	12.70	15.64
CV	0.60	0.63	—
Max	34	51	+17
Min	0	3	-41

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	28.57%	28.57%	7.14%	28.57%	7.14%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.64	20.93	-4.29
SD	10.82	11.08	11.92
CV	0.65	0.53	—
Max	42	35	+10
Min	3	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	—	57.14%
21–27	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	35.71%	42.86%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.79	12.93	+5.86
SD	8.07	6.88	12.71
CV	0.43	0.53	—
Max	37	23	+24
Min	6	0	-13

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.36	15.43	+7.93
SD	8.97	10.32	11.47
CV	0.38	0.67	—
Max	42	34	+35
Min	9	0	-10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	42.86%	14.29%	—	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.14	13.93	+8.21
SD	12.15	6.97	13.68
CV	0.55	0.50	—
Max	51	24	+41
Min	7	0	-12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	—	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.86	20.64	+4.21
SD	7.65	11.10	13.94
CV	0.31	0.54	—
Max	42	41	+39
Min	14	0	-15

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	35.71%
14–20	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	11.86	18.79	-6.93
SD	6.29	10.98	13.46
CV	0.53	0.58	—
Max	21	35	+14
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	21.43%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.93	21.36	-7.43
SD	8.04	7.38	9.74
CV	0.58	0.35	—
Max	33	35	+8
Min	3	6	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	35.71%
21–27	—	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
Total	—	7.14%	42.86%	35.71%	—	14.29%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	21.43	-1.50
SD	9.89	7.88	10.12
CV	0.50	0.37	—
Max	45	38	+13
Min	0	10	-24

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	28.57%	14.29%	42.86%	—	—	—	100%

Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.36	16.29	+9.07
SD	10.32	8.58	8.06
CV	0.41	0.53	—
Max	41	27	+22
Min	7	0	-3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.29	15.50	+1.79
SD	12.10	8.67	15.88
CV	0.70	0.56	—
Max	36	31	+28
Min	0	7	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	14.29%	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	21.43%	42.86%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	13.50	+8.29
SD	10.15	9.58	13.44
CV	0.47	0.71	—
Max	35	35	+30
Min	0	0	-17

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
14–20	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.14	20.36	-5.21
SD	9.12	9.89	12.53
CV	0.60	0.49	—
Max	36	35	+17
Min	0	0	-34

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	7.14%	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
14–20	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	21.43%	21.43%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.14	16.86	-0.71
SD	10.57	12.16	17.17
CV	0.65	0.72	—
Max	35	37	+34
Min	0	0	-25

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	21.43%	35.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.36	15.57	+4.79
SD	10.00	8.60	10.27
CV	0.49	0.55	—
Max	34	28	+25
Min	0	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	14.29%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.86	14.00	+8.86
SD	7.94	9.01	14.28
CV	0.35	0.64	—
Max	42	28	+42
Min	10	0	-11

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	7	3.94	+3.06
2	Oakland Raiders	12	9.99	+2.01
3	St. Louis Cardinals	10	8.34	+1.66
4	New York Jets	7	5.41	+1.59
5	Washington Redskins	10	8.70	+1.30

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Atlanta Falcons	3	5.91	-2.91
2	New York Giants	2	4.83	-2.83
3	Baltimore Colts	2	4.03	-2.03
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	4	5.77	-1.77
5	Kansas City Chiefs	5	6.55	-1.55

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New York Jets	6	Nov 10 – Dec 15	1 in 691
2	Houston Oilers	4	Oct 27 – Nov 17	1 in 525
3	St. Louis Cardinals	7	Sep 15 – Oct 27	1 in 101
4	New England Patriots	5	Sep 15 – Oct 13	1 in 68
5	Oakland Raiders	9	Sep 22 – Nov 17	1 in 26

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	4	Sep 23 – Oct 13	1 in 88
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	Oct 20 – Dec 7	1 in 64
3	New England Patriots	3	Nov 3 – Nov 17	1 in 34
4	New York Jets	6	Sep 29 – Nov 3	1 in 24
5	New York Giants	6	Nov 10 – Dec 15	1 in 21

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	61.45%	31.79%	6.02%	0.74%
Cincinnati Bengals	34.15%	50.20%	13.67%	1.98%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	3.97%	15.46%	57.61%	22.96%
Houston Oilers	0.43%	2.55%	22.70%	74.32%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	82.31%	14.61%	2.58%	0.46%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	13.54%	51.36%	23.39%	9.51%	2.20%
New England Patriots	3.19%	22.72%	42.39%	22.92%	8.78%
New York Jets	0.85%	8.98%	22.84%	41.80%	25.53%
Baltimore Colts	0.11%	2.33%	8.80%	25.31%	63.45%

Team	1	2	3	4
Oakland Raiders	79.58%	15.97%	4.18%	0.27%
Denver Broncos	12.97%	48.47%	32.05%	6.51%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.23%	31.61%	47.68%	13.48%
San Diego Chargers	0.22%	3.95%	16.09%	79.74%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	77.85%	16.55%	4.62%	0.98%
Detroit Lions	12.15%	39.77%	33.56%	14.52%
Green Bay Packers	8.73%	33.39%	37.15%	20.73%
Chicago Bears	1.27%	10.29%	24.67%	63.77%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Washington Redskins	36.78%	30.06%	22.43%	8.31%	2.42%
Dallas Cowboys	32.11%	29.53%	24.36%	10.99%	3.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	26.93%	29.02%	27.13%	13.08%	3.84%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.33%	8.41%	17.79%	41.26%	29.21%
New York Giants	0.85%	2.98%	8.29%	26.36%	61.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	89.17%	8.83%	1.71%	0.29%
Atlanta Falcons	4.87%	40.31%	34.81%	20.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.80%	36.16%	34.49%	24.55%
New Orleans Saints	1.16%	14.70%	28.99%	55.15%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Miami Dolphins	46.24%	25.36%	13.35%	7.08%	4.04%	1.98%	1.04%	0.60%	0.18%	0.10%	0.03%	—	—
Oakland Raiders	23.35%	26.96%	21.48%	10.81%	7.11%	5.05%	2.57%	1.50%	0.79%	0.26%	0.09%	0.03%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.49%	19.92%	21.76%	14.71%	10.93%	7.81%	4.34%	2.40%	1.45%	0.79%	0.27%	0.07%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.51%	11.22%	15.36%	17.46%	15.78%	13.05%	8.26%	5.65%	3.86%	1.53%	0.84%	0.38%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	4.92%	7.00%	10.61%	16.75%	16.79%	13.72%	10.48%	7.56%	5.17%	3.97%	1.54%	1.09%	0.40%
Denver Broncos	1.70%	4.55%	7.39%	11.09%	14.37%	16.69%	13.29%	11.10%	9.19%	5.30%	3.12%	1.66%	0.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.80%	1.89%	3.77%	7.13%	9.97%	12.23%	13.55%	15.74%	13.71%	8.89%	6.46%	4.00%	1.86%
New England Patriots	0.65%	1.71%	3.02%	7.22%	9.16%	12.16%	15.90%	14.83%	11.68%	10.42%	6.52%	3.99%	2.74%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.20%	0.91%	1.96%	3.95%	5.39%	7.04%	11.76%	14.50%	17.65%	12.92%	11.08%	8.18%	4.46%
New York Jets	0.13%	0.37%	0.80%	2.46%	4.18%	5.48%	8.93%	10.89%	12.95%	18.38%	13.70%	10.89%	10.84%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.05%	0.21%	0.43%	0.67%	1.43%	3.01%	5.62%	8.31%	12.65%	20.22%	23.74%	23.65%
San Diego Chargers	—	0.01%	0.13%	0.37%	0.73%	1.47%	3.61%	5.21%	8.14%	12.29%	20.93%	23.78%	23.33%
Baltimore Colts	—	0.05%	0.16%	0.54%	0.88%	1.89%	3.26%	4.40%	6.92%	12.50%	15.20%	22.19%	32.01%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Los Angeles Rams	31.22%	24.40%	20.09%	9.59%	6.12%	3.88%	1.93%	1.17%	0.83%	0.54%	0.11%	0.12%	—
Minnesota Vikings	32.43%	23.95%	18.10%	9.53%	6.93%	3.56%	2.24%	1.61%	0.88%	0.46%	0.26%	0.05%	—
Washington Redskins	11.69%	15.28%	14.97%	15.39%	11.67%	10.39%	7.90%	4.81%	3.35%	2.09%	1.32%	0.77%	0.37%
Dallas Cowboys	10.50%	13.04%	14.13%	15.37%	11.73%	10.52%	8.54%	5.95%	3.98%	2.96%	1.68%	1.12%	0.48%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.24%	11.51%	12.96%	15.01%	12.20%	10.79%	9.63%	6.76%	5.02%	3.78%	2.15%	1.26%	0.69%
Detroit Lions	2.60%	4.20%	6.20%	10.33%	13.75%	12.69%	12.00%	12.10%	8.74%	7.00%	5.32%	3.45%	1.62%
Green Bay Packers	1.88%	3.30%	5.14%	8.43%	11.72%	11.37%	11.89%	12.53%	10.77%	8.20%	7.32%	5.01%	2.44%
Atlanta Falcons	0.40%	0.92%	2.33%	3.86%	6.60%	9.98%	11.39%	12.04%	13.41%	12.03%	10.86%	9.30%	6.88%
San Francisco 49ers	0.45%	1.08%	2.17%	3.92%	6.70%	8.79%	9.76%	10.75%	11.90%	12.58%	12.05%	10.39%	9.46%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.40%	1.45%	2.28%	4.26%	5.26%	6.96%	9.30%	10.19%	12.28%	14.08%	12.39%	11.01%	10.14%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	0.35%	0.70%	1.80%	3.40%	4.60%	6.65%	9.38%	10.37%	12.82%	17.01%	17.31%	15.54%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.35%	0.61%	1.34%	2.02%	3.03%	4.43%	5.93%	9.29%	12.31%	14.55%	19.94%	26.14%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.17%	0.32%	1.17%	1.90%	3.44%	4.34%	6.78%	9.18%	11.15%	14.98%	20.27%	26.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
Miami Dolphins	30.77%	19.40%	13.13%	10.20%	6.88%	5.64%	3.77%	3.21%	2.06%	1.42%	1.11%	0.68%	0.55%	0.45%	0.31%	0.12%	0.08%	0.12%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	—	0.01%	—	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	13.67%	15.63%	12.14%	12.51%	9.53%	9.05%	5.76%	4.92%	4.51%	3.07%	2.23%	1.67%	1.25%	1.06%	0.99%	0.55%	0.54%	0.32%	0.25%	0.15%	0.08%	0.08%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—
Oakland Raiders	14.10%	13.28%	14.53%	11.14%	10.85%	8.18%	6.05%	4.89%	4.05%	3.07%	2.76%	2.15%	1.37%	1.09%	0.62%	0.59%	0.46%	0.36%	0.20%	0.12%	0.04%	0.05%	0.02%	0.03%	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	13.33%	14.73%	12.41%	12.30%	9.65%	10.16%	6.10%	4.97%	3.70%	3.14%	2.36%	2.01%	1.36%	0.95%	0.76%	0.64%	0.42%	0.36%	0.30%	0.13%	0.08%	0.07%	0.06%	0.01%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.96%	9.31%	10.44%	9.84%	10.04%	9.49%	7.49%	6.89%	5.55%	4.89%	3.83%	3.61%	2.51%	1.82%	1.44%	1.12%	0.84%	0.66%	0.44%	0.35%	0.16%	0.14%	0.08%	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	4.57%	5.57%	6.88%	8.22%	7.84%	7.74%	7.94%	7.61%	6.39%	6.65%	5.94%	4.61%	4.28%	3.64%	2.72%	2.07%	2.00%	1.33%	1.15%	0.87%	0.82%	0.52%	0.23%	0.24%	0.13%	0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.22%	3.92%	6.29%	6.03%	7.91%	7.87%	8.56%	7.81%	7.67%	7.33%	6.00%	6.08%	4.32%	3.95%	3.30%	2.57%	1.96%	1.98%	0.87%	0.82%	0.56%	0.47%	0.26%	0.15%	0.06%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	3.77%	5.13%	6.03%	7.09%	7.07%	7.61%	7.85%	7.59%	6.78%	5.97%	6.03%	5.20%	4.49%	4.15%	3.44%	2.57%	2.29%	1.65%	1.63%	0.98%	0.87%	0.66%	0.57%	0.38%	0.16%	0.04%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.38%	4.57%	5.31%	6.01%	6.63%	7.22%	7.86%	7.40%	6.77%	6.41%	5.85%	5.51%	5.01%	4.49%	4.11%	2.83%	2.76%	2.20%	1.84%	1.59%	1.20%	0.68%	0.62%	0.35%	0.30%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	2.41%	2.95%	3.74%	4.53%	6.06%	5.82%	7.73%	8.11%	7.58%	7.56%	6.95%	6.89%	5.18%	5.11%	3.72%	3.45%	2.64%	2.46%	2.18%	1.79%	0.94%	0.79%	0.61%	0.38%	0.28%	0.14%
Denver Broncos	0.75%	1.29%	2.53%	2.84%	3.49%	4.04%	5.42%	5.90%	6.55%	7.13%	6.92%	7.71%	6.65%	6.75%	5.28%	6.01%	4.38%	4.23%	2.89%	2.71%	1.92%	1.80%	1.16%	0.96%	0.46%	0.23%
Detroit Lions	0.80%	1.24%	1.81%	2.22%	2.85%	3.77%	4.66%	5.47%	6.56%	7.06%	6.72%	6.44%	6.46%	6.39%	6.42%	5.42%	5.23%	4.04%	3.79%	3.16%	2.80%	2.42%	1.88%	1.13%	0.89%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	0.45%	0.94%	1.25%	2.01%	2.49%	3.03%	3.76%	4.61%	5.27%	5.96%	6.19%	5.95%	6.48%	5.98%	6.77%	5.70%	6.16%	5.25%	4.45%	3.88%	3.88%	3.04%	2.55%	1.87%	1.27%	0.81%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.20%	0.62%	0.88%	1.01%	1.75%	2.20%	3.41%	3.75%	5.00%	4.77%	5.52%	6.32%	6.20%	6.65%	6.69%	7.61%	6.14%	6.98%	4.97%	5.14%	3.45%	3.55%	2.64%	2.06%	1.40%	1.09%
New England Patriots	0.31%	0.50%	0.79%	1.03%	1.65%	1.67%	3.57%	3.61%	4.67%	4.84%	5.84%	5.99%	7.00%	7.77%	6.62%	7.57%	5.05%	6.44%	5.09%	5.22%	3.79%	3.43%	2.60%	2.21%	1.55%	1.19%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.16%	0.26%	0.55%	1.09%	1.10%	1.70%	2.09%	3.03%	3.66%	4.37%	4.95%	5.55%	5.99%	6.35%	6.71%	7.09%	6.58%	6.75%	6.22%	6.09%	5.19%	4.71%	4.06%	3.45%	2.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.08%	0.15%	0.37%	0.52%	0.84%	1.11%	1.80%	2.00%	2.52%	2.78%	3.73%	3.90%	5.48%	5.85%	5.68%	6.92%	6.68%	8.72%	6.55%	7.17%	5.58%	6.25%	4.73%	5.01%	3.03%	2.55%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.20%	0.34%	0.54%	0.98%	1.20%	1.69%	2.31%	3.16%	3.32%	3.73%	4.65%	4.89%	5.16%	5.88%	5.53%	6.83%	5.82%	6.56%	6.60%	6.66%	5.43%	5.38%	5.05%	4.63%	3.41%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.07%	0.17%	0.47%	0.63%	1.06%	1.40%	1.68%	2.61%	2.52%	2.95%	3.85%	3.90%	4.83%	4.95%	5.92%	5.72%	6.55%	6.30%	7.51%	6.18%	6.85%	5.74%	6.01%	4.71%	4.35%	3.07%
New York Jets	—	0.13%	0.19%	0.19%	0.45%	0.55%	0.96%	1.40%	1.60%	2.30%	2.82%	3.13%	4.05%	4.76%	4.80%	5.92%	5.33%	7.05%	7.91%	8.45%	6.77%	7.37%	6.08%	6.13%	5.92%	5.74%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.22%	0.35%	0.32%	0.69%	0.91%	1.32%	2.06%	2.28%	2.42%	3.53%	3.76%	5.00%	4.86%	6.07%	5.53%	6.69%	6.98%	9.07%	7.44%	8.93%	7.49%	7.62%	6.34%
New York Giants	—	0.01%	0.10%	0.19%	0.22%	0.38%	0.60%	0.67%	0.92%	1.20%	1.66%	1.65%	2.54%	2.43%	3.46%	3.47%	5.82%	4.75%	7.08%	6.21%	8.53%	7.97%	10.35%	9.06%	12.02%	8.71%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.05%	0.02%	0.10%	0.12%	0.24%	0.47%	0.54%	0.70%	1.11%	1.46%	1.89%	1.95%	2.40%	3.54%	3.70%	4.79%	4.65%	5.77%	6.43%	7.86%	8.58%	9.72%	10.19%	11.78%	11.93%
San Diego Chargers	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.13%	0.22%	0.35%	0.36%	0.59%	0.85%	1.42%	1.74%	2.00%	2.69%	3.63%	4.29%	5.09%	6.08%	7.36%	10.44%	10.66%	12.81%	13.15%	16.02%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.10%	0.07%	0.13%	0.19%	0.35%	0.42%	0.60%	0.82%	1.18%	1.41%	2.00%	3.05%	2.96%	4.38%	4.74%	6.65%	7.83%	10.02%	10.55%	13.69%	12.56%	16.25%
Baltimore Colts	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.09%	0.22%	0.32%	0.42%	0.57%	0.66%	1.02%	1.47%	1.30%	2.18%	2.61%	3.30%	3.55%	5.27%	6.08%	6.79%	7.87%	9.56%	11.99%	14.93%	19.70%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Miami Dolphins	46.24%	24.77%	11.30%	9.16%	8.53%
Oakland Raiders	23.35%	28.61%	27.62%	5.25%	15.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.49%	20.63%	25.33%	11.79%	26.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.51%	11.34%	16.30%	16.55%	49.30%
Buffalo Bills	4.92%	5.05%	3.57%	23.50%	62.96%
Denver Broncos	1.70%	4.68%	6.59%	11.86%	75.17%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.80%	2.03%	4.40%	6.46%	86.31%
New England Patriots	0.65%	1.37%	1.17%	8.34%	88.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.20%	1.01%	2.76%	3.27%	92.76%
New York Jets	0.13%	0.35%	0.37%	2.60%	96.55%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.07%	0.35%	0.33%	99.24%
Baltimore Colts	—	0.06%	0.05%	0.56%	99.33%
San Diego Chargers	—	0.03%	0.19%	0.33%	99.45%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings	32.43%	24.74%	20.68%	6.81%	15.34%
Los Angeles Rams	31.22%	26.28%	31.67%	1.80%	9.03%
Washington Redskins	11.69%	14.56%	10.53%	19.06%	44.16%
Dallas Cowboys	10.50%	12.40%	9.21%	19.05%	48.84%
St. Louis Cardinals	8.24%	10.66%	8.03%	18.73%	54.34%
Detroit Lions	2.60%	4.09%	5.46%	10.24%	77.61%
Green Bay Packers	1.88%	2.95%	3.90%	9.30%	81.97%
San Francisco 49ers	0.45%	1.09%	3.26%	3.47%	91.73%
Atlanta Falcons	0.40%	1.00%	3.47%	3.43%	91.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.40%	1.39%	1.54%	4.48%	92.19%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	0.34%	0.86%	1.51%	97.22%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.33%	0.46%	1.32%	97.83%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.17%	0.93%	0.80%	98.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Miami Dolphins	91.47%	55.57%	36.72%	22.83%
Oakland Raiders	84.83%	52.04%	31.88%	19.97%
Minnesota Vikings	84.66%	48.48%	28.09%	12.38%
Pittsburgh Steelers	73.24%	42.65%	18.90%	10.80%
Los Angeles Rams	90.97%	54.49%	26.28%	10.64%
Washington Redskins	55.84%	32.12%	18.66%	9.15%
Dallas Cowboys	51.16%	26.02%	13.66%	5.85%
St. Louis Cardinals	45.66%	18.25%	6.99%	2.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	50.70%	18.95%	4.95%	1.72%
Buffalo Bills	37.04%	12.87%	3.37%	1.34%
Detroit Lions	22.39%	7.70%	2.78%	0.95%
Denver Broncos	24.83%	7.92%	2.09%	0.74%
New England Patriots	11.53%	3.38%	0.89%	0.36%
Green Bay Packers	18.03%	4.88%	1.43%	0.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	7.81%	2.45%	0.83%	0.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.69%	3.60%	0.62%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers	8.27%	2.72%	0.79%	0.13%
New York Jets	3.45%	0.87%	0.24%	0.09%
Atlanta Falcons	8.30%	1.72%	0.32%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.24%	1.66%	0.24%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	1.96%	0.59%	0.13%	0.04%
Houston Oilers	0.76%	0.23%	0.07%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	2.78%	0.40%	0.03%	—
New York Giants	2.17%	0.18%	0.01%	—
Baltimore Colts	0.67%	0.16%	0.03%	—
San Diego Chargers	0.55%	0.10%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts			0.04%	0.01%	0.01%						0.01%	0.09%
Buffalo Bills			4.41%	0.59%	0.75%	0.07%	0.51%				1.98%	4.54%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.11%	4.77%			3.32%		1.81%	3.05%	1.90%	0.56%	3.32%		0.11%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.01%	0.36%			0.30%		0.18%	0.19%	0.19%	0.07%	0.36%
Denver Broncos	0.01%	0.67%	2.58%	0.56%		0.04%		1.53%	0.24%	0.04%		2.25%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.06%			0.06%		0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.39%	1.34%	0.33%		0.03%		0.61%	0.05%			0.85%
Miami Dolphins			10.00%	1.18%	5.88%	0.11%	3.34%				21.67%	13.28%	0.11%
New England Patriots			1.23%	0.23%	0.14%	0.01%	0.11%				0.33%	1.33%
New York Jets			0.26%	0.08%	0.01%		0.02%				0.07%	0.43%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	6.14%	11.86%	2.60%		0.27%		21.48%	1.41%	0.46%		7.76%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.31%	11.78%			6.44%		4.09%	9.02%	4.35%	1.45%	5.00%		0.21%
San Diego Chargers			0.03%					0.01%				0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.10%	0.15%	0.27%	0.24%		0.45%		0.02%	0.10%		0.30%	0.09%
Chicago Bears	0.07%		0.03%			0.19%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	0.97%	0.41%		2.40%	1.95%	9.14%	10.26%	0.19%			0.70%
Detroit Lions	0.48%		1.28%			2.74%		0.05%	0.03%	0.22%	0.40%	1.35%	1.15%
Green Bay Packers	0.48%		0.88%			1.87%		0.07%	0.03%	0.04%	0.23%	0.73%	0.55%
Los Angeles Rams		1.19%	10.23%	6.73%	6.80%		3.80%		1.22%	3.13%		12.31%	9.08%
Minnesota Vikings	2.53%		12.17%			3.77%		0.59%	0.64%	1.72%	2.56%	12.09%	12.41%
New Orleans Saints		0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.05%		0.16%					0.13%	0.07%
New York Giants				0.02%		0.09%	0.06%				0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.16%	0.03%		0.13%	0.08%	1.23%	0.75%	0.01%			0.06%
San Francisco 49ers		0.06%	0.33%	0.33%	0.38%		0.64%		0.04%	0.14%		0.46%	0.34%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.85%	0.24%		1.75%	1.50%	6.67%	6.56%	0.16%			0.52%
Washington Redskins	1.04%	0.32%		2.98%	2.15%	10.78%	13.50%	0.29%			1.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		0.01%						0.02%
Buffalo Bills			0.25%	0.07%	0.18%		0.13%	1.35%			0.94%	0.44%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.21%		0.01%	0.20%		0.19%	1.57%	0.07%	0.01%	1.81%	0.88%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.01%	0.02%				0.01%	0.08%			0.08%	0.04%
Denver Broncos		0.20%	0.25%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.56%	0.04%		0.56%	0.42%
Houston Oilers							0.01%	0.01%			0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.06%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%			0.13%	0.04%	0.02%	0.19%	0.08%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%	4.57%	6.48%	0.65%	2.41%	0.08%	1.19%		1.19%	0.23%	8.76%	11.06%	0.05%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%		0.06%			0.33%			0.24%	0.13%
New York Jets		0.01%	0.02%		0.01%			0.05%			0.10%	0.05%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	3.42%	4.87%	0.50%	2.04%	0.04%	0.97%	8.03%	0.95%	0.31%		10.65%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%	0.96%	1.99%	0.15%	0.91%	0.03%	0.44%	6.72%	0.20%	0.06%	7.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.04%	0.01%		0.06%	0.08%					0.07%	0.06%
Chicago Bears						0.01%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.17%	0.05%		0.67%	0.52%	4.27%	2.60%	0.11%	0.03%	0.30%	0.26%	1.98%	2.70%
Detroit Lions	0.01%		0.34%		0.05%	0.79%	0.83%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%	0.32%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%		0.12%	0.05%		0.38%	0.43%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.16%	0.22%
Los Angeles Rams	0.21%	0.09%	4.10%	1.36%	0.96%		10.87%	0.06%	0.04%	0.34%	0.44%	3.14%	4.67%
Minnesota Vikings	0.38%	0.16%	3.24%	1.64%	1.01%	13.57%		0.11%	0.04%	0.53%	0.68%	3.00%	3.73%
New Orleans Saints			0.02%		0.01%	0.08%				0.01%		0.01%
New York Giants						0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.01%	0.13%		0.04%	0.18%	0.19%				0.01%	0.10%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%		0.13%	0.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.20%					0.09%	0.17%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.15%	0.04%	1.08%	0.28%	0.28%	2.16%	1.32%	0.04%	0.01%	0.09%	0.15%		1.39%
Washington Redskins	0.42%	0.02%	3.16%	0.89%	0.54%	6.57%	3.85%	0.11%	0.05%	0.30%	0.36%	2.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons								0.01%						0.01%						0.03%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%						0.11%		0.04%	0.05%			0.44%		0.32%						0.01%		0.02%	0.15%	0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%						0.22%		0.09%	0.06%			0.52%		0.37%		0.01%				0.01%		0.01%	0.17%	0.24%
Cleveland Browns (1st)							0.03%								0.01%									0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.29%		0.46%	0.03%		0.17%				0.04%		1.77%		0.09%			0.03%	1.77%		1.20%
Denver Broncos							0.10%		0.01%	0.01%			0.19%		0.19%								0.01%	0.09%	0.14%
Detroit Lions			0.03%		0.11%	0.02%		0.03%				0.01%		0.34%					0.01%	0.23%		0.17%
Green Bay Packers			0.01%											0.11%						0.13%		0.04%
Houston Oilers							0.01%								0.01%										0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs							0.01%			0.01%			0.06%		0.04%									0.01%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams		0.02%	0.48%		0.82%	0.04%		0.32%			0.02%	0.14%		3.52%		0.18%			0.05%	2.90%		2.15%
Miami Dolphins	0.11%			0.03%			3.10%		0.65%	0.39%			6.06%		6.27%		0.05%				0.27%		0.24%	1.78%	3.88%
Minnesota Vikings			0.65%		1.00%	0.04%		0.41%			0.01%	0.17%		4.15%		0.12%			0.02%	3.55%		2.26%
New England Patriots							0.04%						0.13%		0.09%								0.02%	0.06%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints														0.01%		0.01%				0.02%
New York Jets													0.03%		0.03%								0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.07%						2.62%		0.62%	0.39%			5.38%		5.55%		0.03%	0.01%			0.16%		0.19%	1.76%	3.19%
Philadelphia Eagles					0.04%			0.02%						0.13%						0.06%		0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%						1.57%		0.42%	0.23%			2.83%		2.83%						0.09%		0.16%	0.81%	1.81%
San Francisco 49ers			0.01%											0.07%		0.01%				0.03%		0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.01%	0.18%		0.24%	0.02%		0.09%				0.01%		0.57%		0.05%			0.04%	0.60%		0.33%
Washington Redskins			0.38%		0.56%	0.04%		0.30%			0.01%	0.10%		3.21%		0.07%				2.59%		1.89%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Oakland Raiders	56.57%	39.47%	25.27%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	43.43%	27.36%	17.19%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.49%	27.24%	14.66%	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	53.04%	29.67%	13.65%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	59.37%	29.38%	12.60%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams	46.96%	26.30%	9.99%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
St. Louis Cardinals	40.63%	14.65%	4.28%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	27.51%	5.93%	2.36%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills				27.51%
Miami Dolphins			43.43%
Oakland Raiders		56.57%
Pittsburgh Steelers	72.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams				46.96%
Minnesota Vikings			59.37%
St. Louis Cardinals		40.63%
Washington Redskins	53.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills		2.42%	3.51%
Miami Dolphins	9.18%			18.18%
Oakland Raiders	12.40%			27.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers		13.65%	13.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Rams		14.33%	11.97%
Minnesota Vikings	13.65%			15.73%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.01%			7.64%
Washington Redskins		15.66%	14.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Buffalo Bills		0.49%		0.75%			0.52%	0.60%
Los Angeles Rams	0.95%		2.42%		3.51%	3.11%
Miami Dolphins		4.50%		4.94%			3.06%	4.69%
Minnesota Vikings	1.00%		3.14%		4.55%	3.91%
Oakland Raiders		7.24%		6.93%			4.28%	6.82%
Pittsburgh Steelers		4.08%		4.16%			2.51%	3.91%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.46%		1.00%		1.45%	1.37%
Washington Redskins	1.16%		3.61%		4.69%	4.19%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Oakland Raiders 25.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

68.58%

Win Prob

66.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

28.65%

Win Prob

67.35%

Miami Dolphins 17.19% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

66.45%

Win Prob

57.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

28.74%

Win Prob

61.14%

Pittsburgh Steelers 14.66% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

50.11%

Win Prob

42.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

28.38%

Win Prob

51.55%

Washington Redskins 13.65% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

52.78%

Win Prob

49.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

34.36%

Win Prob

40.75%

Minnesota Vikings 12.60% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

53.54%

Win Prob

50.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

36.11%

Win Prob

39.63%

Los Angeles Rams 9.99% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

54.49%

Win Prob

51.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

35.14%

Win Prob

32.65%

St. Louis Cardinals 4.28% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

52.15%

Win Prob

35.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

33.88%

Win Prob

25.31%

Buffalo Bills 2.36% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

59.19%

Win Prob

22.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

31.78%

Win Prob

42.86%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1974-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-24	1529.65	1614.16	42.24%	57.07%	-32.06	0-1
1974-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-16	1497.59	1475.02	57.51%	41.80%	-21.79	0-2
1974-09-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-14	1475.80	1388.38	57.48%	41.83%	-8.89	0-3
1974-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 14-7	1466.91	1434.67	49.61%	49.70%	+20.35	1-3
1974-10-13	Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1487.26	1420.64	63.53%	35.79%	+9.61	2-3
1974-10-20	New Orleans Saints	L 3-13	1496.87	1353.62	72.92%	26.39%	-35.64	2-4
1974-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1461.23	1606.32	26.18%	73.13%	-10.76	2-5
1974-11-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-42	1450.47	1674.67	18.37%	80.95%	-16.89	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-21	1433.58	1626.38	21.23%	78.08%	-15.12	2-7
1974-11-17	Baltimore Colts	L 7-17	1418.46	1322.19	67.35%	31.97%	-32.92	2-8
1974-11-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-27	1385.54	1428.44	38.98%	60.33%	-31.39	2-9
1974-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-30	1354.15	1610.80	21.35%	77.96%	-15.91	2-10
1974-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1338.24	1618.93	13.98%	85.33%	-7.84	2-11
1974-12-15	Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1330.40	1478.10	33.70%	65.61%	+26.83	3-11
1974-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-30	1424.07	1582.41	24.74%	74.57%	-21.04	0-1
1974-09-22	Green Bay Packers	L 13-20	1403.03	1447.67	47.92%	51.39%	-19.62	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-30	1383.41	1422.40	39.52%	59.79%	-27.39	0-3
1974-10-06	@ New England Patriots	L 3-42	1356.02	1507.12	25.52%	73.79%	-24.75	0-4
1974-10-13	Buffalo Bills	L 14-27	1331.27	1562.45	23.92%	75.40%	-13.40	0-5
1974-10-20	@ New York Jets	W 35-20	1317.87	1385.93	35.60%	63.72%	+38.15	1-5
1974-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-17	1356.02	1668.81	11.90%	87.41%	-5.85	1-6
1974-11-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-24	1350.17	1579.77	24.08%	75.23%	-11.83	1-7
1974-11-10	Denver Broncos	L 6-17	1338.34	1504.46	31.37%	67.94%	-16.15	1-8
1974-11-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-7	1322.19	1418.46	31.97%	67.35%	+32.93	2-8
1974-11-24	New England Patriots	L 17-27	1355.12	1505.39	33.37%	65.94%	-16.37	2-9
1974-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-6	1338.75	1563.21	18.34%	80.97%	-6.99	2-10
1974-12-08	Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1331.76	1714.56	11.61%	87.70%	-1.80	2-11
1974-12-15	New York Jets	L 38-45	1329.96	1445.71	37.92%	61.39%	-15.56	2-12
1974-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 21-20	1528.29	1598.03	44.33%	54.98%	+8.51	1-0
1974-09-22	Miami Dolphins	L 16-24	1536.80	1647.25	38.65%	60.67%	-16.95	1-1
1974-09-29	New York Jets	W 16-12	1519.85	1429.75	66.57%	32.74%	+10.16	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-7	1530.01	1477.97	52.46%	46.85%	+32.44	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-14	1562.45	1331.27	75.40%	23.92%	+13.40	4-1
1974-10-20	New England Patriots	W 30-28	1575.85	1560.52	56.50%	42.81%	+9.38	5-1
1974-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 16-6	1585.23	1419.55	75.35%	23.96%	+11.77	6-1
1974-11-03	@ New England Patriots	W 29-28	1597.00	1569.15	48.98%	50.33%	+7.79	7-1
1974-11-10	Houston Oilers	L 9-21	1604.79	1354.95	83.06%	16.26%	-44.49	7-2
1974-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-35	1560.30	1704.31	26.30%	73.01%	-10.81	7-3
1974-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 15-10	1549.49	1445.97	59.72%	39.60%	+13.72	8-3
1974-12-01	Baltimore Colts	W 6-0	1563.21	1338.75	80.97%	18.34%	+6.99	9-3
1974-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 10-20	1570.20	1413.05	66.81%	32.50%	-32.66	9-4
1974-12-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-19	1537.54	1607.04	35.41%	63.91%	-12.28	9-5
1974-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 17-9	1382.60	1527.47	34.06%	65.25%	+28.53	1-0
1974-09-22	New York Jets	L 21-23	1411.13	1418.08	53.33%	45.98%	-11.67	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-11	1399.46	1646.24	16.50%	82.82%	-5.13	1-2
1974-10-06	New Orleans Saints	W 24-10	1394.33	1397.27	53.90%	45.41%	+26.31	2-2
1974-10-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-13	1420.64	1487.26	35.79%	63.53%	-9.61	2-3
1974-10-21	Green Bay Packers	W 10-9	1411.03	1481.59	44.21%	55.10%	+8.52	3-3
1974-10-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-16	1419.55	1585.23	23.96%	75.35%	-11.77	3-4
1974-11-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-17	1407.78	1628.80	25.00%	74.31%	-16.00	3-5
1974-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1391.78	1445.50	37.51%	61.80%	-23.98	3-6
1974-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-34	1367.80	1381.16	52.41%	46.90%	-47.28	3-7
1974-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1320.52	1518.05	20.78%	78.53%	-13.32	3-8
1974-12-01	New York Giants	W 16-13	1307.20	1348.24	48.44%	50.88%	+13.64	4-8
1974-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-28	1320.84	1297.67	48.31%	51.01%	-19.78	4-9
1974-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-42	1301.06	1663.17	9.23%	90.08%	-9.32	4-10
1974-09-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-7	1566.38	1521.58	60.59%	38.72%	+30.61	1-0
1974-09-22	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1596.99	1336.97	83.84%	15.47%	-22.46	1-1
1974-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-3	1574.53	1496.81	56.11%	43.20%	+28.39	2-1
1974-10-06	Washington Redskins	W 28-17	1602.92	1593.85	55.61%	43.70%	+22.45	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 34-24	1625.37	1452.51	68.77%	30.54%	+14.99	4-1
1974-10-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-30	1640.36	1671.87	40.55%	58.76%	-10.88	4-2
1974-10-27	Houston Oilers	L 21-34	1629.48	1286.30	89.13%	10.19%	-49.71	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-14	1579.77	1350.17	75.23%	24.08%	+11.83	5-3
1974-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1591.60	1637.48	47.74%	51.57%	+21.11	6-3
1974-11-17	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-20	1612.71	1399.44	73.47%	25.84%	-46.82	6-4
1974-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-6	1565.89	1460.96	68.42%	30.89%	+24.91	7-4
1974-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-24	1590.80	1692.29	31.31%	68.00%	-22.27	7-5
1974-12-08	Detroit Lions	L 19-23	1568.53	1513.78	61.94%	37.37%	-19.15	7-6
1974-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1549.38	1641.45	32.49%	66.82%	-24.70	7-7
1974-09-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-33	1521.58	1566.38	38.72%	60.59%	-30.60	0-1
1974-09-22	Houston Oilers	W 20-7	1490.98	1338.23	73.97%	25.34%	+14.19	1-1
1974-09-29	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-29	1505.17	1492.02	46.87%	52.44%	-34.04	1-2
1974-10-06	Oakland Raiders	L 24-40	1471.13	1648.56	29.99%	69.32%	-18.62	1-3
1974-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-34	1452.51	1625.37	30.54%	68.77%	-14.98	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1437.53	1598.73	24.43%	74.88%	-7.59	1-5
1974-10-27	Denver Broncos	W 23-21	1429.94	1533.26	39.62%	59.69%	+13.05	2-5
1974-11-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 35-36	1442.99	1301.12	64.86%	34.46%	-10.03	2-6
1974-11-10	@ New England Patriots	W 21-14	1432.96	1561.36	28.08%	71.23%	+29.13	3-6
1974-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-26	1462.09	1616.37	32.86%	66.45%	-16.12	3-7
1974-11-24	Buffalo Bills	L 10-15	1445.97	1549.49	39.60%	59.72%	-13.72	3-8
1974-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 7-0	1432.25	1459.84	50.37%	48.94%	+20.04	4-8
1974-12-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-41	1452.29	1621.87	23.55%	75.76%	-17.92	4-9
1974-12-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 24-28	1434.37	1426.23	46.15%	53.16%	-14.29	4-10
1974-09-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-0	1614.16	1529.65	57.07%	42.24%	+32.06	1-0
1974-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1646.22	1401.85	76.75%	22.56%	-20.55	1-1
1974-09-29	New York Giants	L 6-14	1625.67	1399.18	81.14%	18.17%	-35.49	1-2
1974-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1590.18	1651.37	45.55%	53.77%	-9.97	1-3
1974-10-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-31	1580.21	1561.71	47.63%	51.68%	-12.78	1-4
1974-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-24	1567.43	1496.23	64.13%	35.18%	+14.44	2-4
1974-10-27	@ New York Giants	W 21-7	1581.87	1368.87	73.44%	25.87%	+15.03	3-4
1974-11-03	St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-14	1596.90	1593.27	54.84%	44.47%	+11.93	4-4
1974-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-14	1608.83	1388.27	80.63%	18.68%	+7.11	5-4
1974-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-28	1615.94	1620.77	44.30%	55.01%	-18.15	5-5
1974-11-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 10-0	1597.79	1446.27	66.10%	33.21%	+16.29	6-5
1974-11-28	Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1614.08	1651.28	48.99%	50.32%	+7.79	7-5
1974-12-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 41-17	1621.87	1452.29	75.76%	23.55%	+17.92	8-5
1974-12-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-27	1639.79	1722.92	33.63%	65.68%	-10.43	8-6
1974-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-17	1532.29	1619.78	41.82%	57.49%	-17.14	0-1
1974-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 35-35	1515.15	1603.45	41.71%	57.60%	+0.61	0-1
1974-09-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-30	1515.76	1562.92	38.40%	60.91%	-30.93	0-2
1974-10-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1484.83	1519.29	40.14%	59.17%	+15.85	1-2
1974-10-13	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1500.68	1370.96	71.38%	27.93%	+17.34	2-2
1974-10-20	San Diego Chargers	W 27-7	1518.02	1332.35	77.39%	21.93%	+15.24	3-2
1974-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-23	1533.26	1429.94	59.69%	39.62%	-13.05	3-3
1974-11-03	Oakland Raiders	L 17-28	1520.21	1692.68	30.59%	68.72%	-15.75	3-4
1974-11-10	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-6	1504.46	1338.34	67.94%	31.37%	+16.15	4-4
1974-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-42	1520.61	1431.93	66.39%	32.92%	-29.03	4-5
1974-11-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1491.58	1728.37	17.30%	82.01%	+21.96	5-5
1974-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1513.54	1531.36	42.46%	56.85%	+17.58	6-5
1974-12-08	Houston Oilers	W 37-14	1531.12	1451.59	65.22%	34.10%	+25.37	7-5
1974-12-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-17	1556.49	1317.45	76.21%	23.10%	-48.58	7-6
1974-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1527.47	1382.60	65.25%	34.06%	-28.53	0-1
1974-09-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-7	1498.94	1640.90	34.44%	64.87%	-5.34	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-21	1493.60	1467.30	48.76%	50.55%	-10.67	0-3
1974-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 13-16	1482.93	1624.35	26.60%	72.72%	-7.15	0-4
1974-10-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-13	1475.78	1432.76	60.35%	38.97%	+12.08	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1487.86	1670.65	22.21%	77.10%	+23.83	2-4
1974-10-27	Green Bay Packers	W 19-17	1511.69	1473.07	59.74%	39.57%	+8.68	3-4
1974-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 19-14	1520.37	1407.26	69.42%	29.90%	+10.37	4-4
1974-11-10	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-35	1530.74	1708.42	22.72%	76.59%	-16.56	4-5
1974-11-17	New York Giants	W 20-19	1514.18	1357.36	74.41%	24.90%	+3.87	5-5
1974-11-24	Chicago Bears	W 34-17	1518.05	1320.52	78.53%	20.78%	+13.31	6-5
1974-11-28	Denver Broncos	L 27-31	1531.36	1513.54	56.85%	42.46%	-17.58	6-6
1974-12-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-19	1513.78	1568.53	37.37%	61.94%	+19.15	7-6
1974-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-28	1532.93	1468.34	54.25%	45.06%	-27.83	7-7
1974-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-32	1467.46	1621.11	32.94%	66.37%	-19.79	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-13	1447.67	1403.03	51.39%	47.92%	+19.63	1-1
1974-09-29	Detroit Lions	W 21-19	1467.30	1493.60	50.55%	48.76%	+10.67	2-1
1974-10-06	Buffalo Bills	L 7-27	1477.97	1530.01	46.85%	52.46%	-32.44	2-2
1974-10-13	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-6	1445.53	1631.50	28.97%	70.34%	+36.06	3-2
1974-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-10	1481.59	1411.03	55.10%	44.21%	-8.52	3-3
1974-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-19	1473.07	1511.69	39.57%	59.74%	-8.67	3-4
1974-11-03	Washington Redskins	L 6-17	1464.40	1588.91	36.75%	62.57%	-18.90	3-5
1974-11-10	Chicago Bears	W 20-3	1445.50	1391.78	61.80%	37.51%	+23.98	4-5
1974-11-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 19-7	1469.48	1658.81	21.57%	77.74%	+41.63	5-5
1974-11-24	San Diego Chargers	W 34-0	1511.11	1337.93	76.13%	23.18%	+21.00	6-5
1974-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-36	1532.11	1400.86	63.46%	35.85%	-46.02	6-6
1974-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-7	1486.09	1439.79	51.63%	47.68%	-7.99	6-7
1974-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-10	1478.10	1330.40	65.61%	33.70%	-26.83	6-8
1974-09-15	San Diego Chargers	W 21-14	1317.45	1357.75	48.54%	50.77%	+20.78	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1338.23	1490.98	25.34%	73.97%	-14.19	1-1
1974-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-17	1324.04	1504.77	29.59%	69.72%	-14.52	1-2
1974-10-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-13	1309.52	1569.30	21.05%	78.26%	-8.01	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-51	1301.51	1661.34	9.34%	89.97%	-9.31	1-4
1974-10-20	St. Louis Cardinals	L 27-31	1292.20	1574.48	18.98%	80.33%	-5.90	1-5
1974-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-21	1286.30	1629.48	10.19%	89.13%	+49.70	2-5
1974-11-03	@ New York Jets	W 27-22	1336.00	1339.33	44.51%	54.80%	+18.95	3-5
1974-11-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 21-9	1354.95	1604.79	16.26%	83.06%	+44.49	4-5
1974-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-3	1399.44	1612.71	25.84%	73.47%	+46.83	5-5
1974-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-10	1446.27	1597.79	33.21%	66.10%	-16.29	5-6
1974-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1429.98	1651.54	18.59%	80.72%	+21.61	6-6
1974-12-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-37	1451.59	1531.12	34.10%	65.22%	-25.36	6-7
1974-12-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-24	1426.23	1434.37	53.16%	46.15%	+14.29	7-7
1974-09-15	New York Jets	W 24-16	1515.48	1432.86	65.61%	33.70%	+14.78	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-27	1530.26	1589.52	36.77%	62.55%	-25.49	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Houston Oilers	W 17-7	1504.77	1324.04	69.72%	29.59%	+14.52	2-1
1974-10-06	Denver Broncos	L 14-17	1519.29	1484.83	59.17%	40.14%	-15.84	2-2
1974-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-34	1503.45	1577.31	43.74%	55.57%	-21.43	2-3
1974-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-9	1482.02	1660.18	22.67%	76.64%	-8.63	2-4
1974-10-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-14	1473.39	1317.12	66.70%	32.61%	+16.00	3-4
1974-11-03	New York Giants	L 27-33	1489.39	1353.84	72.05%	27.26%	-27.28	3-5
1974-11-10	San Diego Chargers	L 7-14	1462.11	1311.15	73.77%	25.54%	-30.18	3-6
1974-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 42-34	1431.93	1520.61	32.92%	66.39%	+29.03	4-6
1974-11-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-33	1460.96	1565.89	30.89%	68.42%	-24.91	4-7
1974-12-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 17-13	1436.05	1589.80	25.23%	74.08%	+22.91	5-7
1974-12-08	Oakland Raiders	L 6-7	1458.96	1719.66	20.96%	78.35%	-3.26	5-8
1974-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 15-35	1455.70	1626.77	30.76%	68.55%	-21.35	5-9
1974-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1619.78	1532.29	57.49%	41.82%	+17.15	1-0
1974-09-22	New Orleans Saints	W 24-0	1636.93	1401.66	81.88%	17.43%	+13.27	2-0
1974-09-29	@ New England Patriots	L 14-20	1650.20	1481.27	68.29%	31.03%	-25.85	2-1
1974-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1624.35	1482.93	72.72%	26.60%	+7.15	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 6-17	1631.50	1445.53	70.34%	28.97%	-36.07	3-2
1974-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-14	1595.43	1420.69	76.29%	23.02%	+17.15	4-2
1974-10-27	@ New York Jets	W 20-13	1612.58	1347.78	78.74%	20.57%	+8.46	5-2
1974-11-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 15-13	1621.04	1393.61	75.00%	24.31%	+5.34	6-2
1974-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-0	1626.38	1433.58	78.08%	21.23%	+15.12	7-2
1974-11-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-20	1641.50	1384.13	78.03%	21.28%	-43.49	7-3
1974-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1598.01	1617.18	51.58%	47.73%	+12.79	8-3
1974-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-7	1610.80	1354.15	77.96%	21.35%	+15.92	9-3
1974-12-09	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1626.72	1643.49	51.92%	47.39%	-19.68	9-4
1974-12-15	Buffalo Bills	W 19-14	1607.04	1537.54	63.91%	35.41%	+12.27	10-4
1974-09-15	@ New England Patriots	L 24-34	1685.72	1421.50	78.68%	20.63%	-38.47	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-16	1647.25	1536.80	60.67%	38.65%	+16.94	1-1
1974-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-21	1664.19	1359.42	82.24%	17.07%	+7.02	2-1
1974-10-07	New York Jets	W 21-17	1671.21	1419.59	83.20%	16.12%	+5.01	3-1
1974-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1676.22	1571.40	59.89%	39.42%	-16.04	3-2
1974-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 9-3	1660.18	1482.02	76.64%	22.67%	+8.63	4-2
1974-10-27	Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1668.81	1356.02	87.41%	11.90%	+5.86	5-2
1974-11-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-7	1674.67	1450.47	80.95%	18.37%	+16.89	6-2
1974-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-0	1691.56	1396.89	81.41%	17.91%	+12.75	7-2
1974-11-17	Buffalo Bills	W 35-28	1704.31	1560.30	73.01%	26.30%	+10.81	8-2
1974-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1715.12	1370.97	85.22%	14.09%	-22.83	8-3
1974-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1692.29	1590.80	68.00%	31.31%	+22.27	9-3
1974-12-08	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-16	1714.56	1331.76	87.70%	11.61%	+1.81	10-3
1974-12-15	New England Patriots	W 34-27	1716.37	1496.99	80.53%	18.78%	+7.72	11-3
1974-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 32-17	1621.11	1467.46	66.37%	32.94%	+19.79	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 7-6	1640.90	1498.94	64.87%	34.44%	+5.34	2-0
1974-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 11-7	1646.24	1399.46	82.82%	16.50%	+5.13	3-0
1974-10-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-21	1651.37	1590.18	53.77%	45.55%	+9.97	4-0
1974-10-13	Houston Oilers	W 51-10	1661.34	1301.51	89.97%	9.34%	+9.31	5-0
1974-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1670.65	1487.86	77.10%	22.21%	-23.84	5-1
1974-10-27	New England Patriots	L 14-17	1646.81	1551.14	67.27%	32.04%	-18.01	5-2
1974-11-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1628.80	1407.78	74.31%	25.00%	+16.01	6-2
1974-11-11	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-24	1644.81	1581.34	54.09%	45.22%	+14.00	7-2
1974-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 7-19	1658.81	1469.48	77.74%	21.57%	-41.63	7-3
1974-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1617.18	1598.01	47.73%	51.58%	-12.80	7-4
1974-12-01	New Orleans Saints	W 29-9	1604.38	1408.57	78.37%	20.94%	+14.55	8-4
1974-12-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-10	1618.93	1338.24	85.33%	13.98%	+7.84	9-4
1974-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-15	1626.77	1455.70	68.55%	30.76%	+21.35	10-4
1974-09-15	Miami Dolphins	W 34-24	1421.50	1685.72	20.63%	78.68%	+38.46	1-0
1974-09-22	@ New York Giants	W 28-20	1459.96	1420.48	50.65%	48.66%	+21.31	2-0
1974-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-14	1481.27	1650.20	31.03%	68.29%	+25.85	3-0
1974-10-06	Baltimore Colts	W 42-3	1507.12	1356.02	73.79%	25.52%	+24.75	4-0
1974-10-13	@ New York Jets	W 24-0	1531.87	1414.58	61.60%	37.72%	+28.65	5-0
1974-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-30	1560.52	1575.85	42.81%	56.50%	-9.38	5-1
1974-10-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-14	1551.14	1646.81	32.04%	67.27%	+18.01	6-1
1974-11-03	Buffalo Bills	L 28-29	1569.15	1597.00	50.33%	48.98%	-7.79	6-2
1974-11-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-21	1561.36	1432.96	71.23%	28.08%	-29.13	6-3
1974-11-17	New York Jets	L 16-21	1532.23	1344.13	77.62%	21.69%	-26.84	6-4
1974-11-24	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1505.39	1355.12	65.94%	33.37%	+16.37	7-4
1974-12-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-41	1521.76	1706.41	22.03%	77.28%	-13.25	7-5
1974-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1508.51	1629.93	37.16%	62.15%	-11.52	7-6
1974-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-34	1496.99	1716.37	18.78%	80.53%	-7.73	7-7
1974-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1416.54	1460.14	48.07%	51.25%	-14.88	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-24	1401.66	1636.93	17.43%	81.88%	-13.28	0-2
1974-09-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 14-13	1388.38	1475.80	41.83%	57.48%	+8.89	1-2
1974-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1397.27	1394.33	45.41%	53.90%	-26.31	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-33	1370.96	1500.68	27.93%	71.38%	-17.34	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 13-3	1353.62	1496.87	26.39%	72.92%	+35.65	2-4
1974-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-10	1389.27	1481.80	41.12%	58.19%	+17.99	3-4
1974-11-03	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1407.26	1520.37	29.90%	69.42%	-10.37	3-5
1974-11-10	Miami Dolphins	L 0-21	1396.89	1691.56	17.91%	81.41%	-12.76	3-6
1974-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-7	1384.13	1641.50	21.28%	78.03%	+43.50	4-6
1974-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1427.63	1632.49	26.78%	72.53%	-19.06	4-7
1974-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-29	1408.57	1604.38	20.94%	78.37%	-14.55	4-8
1974-12-08	St. Louis Cardinals	W 14-0	1394.02	1566.90	30.54%	68.77%	+39.77	5-8
1974-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-35	1433.79	1447.78	43.00%	56.31%	-24.92	5-9
1974-09-15	Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1429.32	1583.25	32.90%	66.41%	-8.84	0-1
1974-09-22	New England Patriots	L 20-28	1420.48	1459.96	48.66%	50.65%	-21.30	0-2
1974-09-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-6	1399.18	1625.67	18.17%	81.14%	+35.49	1-2
1974-10-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-14	1434.67	1466.91	49.70%	49.61%	-20.35	1-3
1974-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1414.32	1465.14	37.90%	61.41%	-31.09	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 3-24	1383.23	1587.44	20.15%	79.16%	-14.36	1-5
1974-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1368.87	1581.87	25.87%	73.44%	-15.03	1-6
1974-11-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 33-27	1353.84	1489.39	27.26%	72.05%	+27.28	2-6
1974-11-10	New York Jets	L 20-26	1381.12	1320.37	62.75%	36.57%	-23.76	2-7
1974-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-20	1357.36	1514.18	24.90%	74.41%	-3.87	2-8
1974-11-24	St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-23	1353.49	1584.55	23.93%	75.38%	-5.25	2-9
1974-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1348.24	1307.20	50.88%	48.44%	-13.64	2-10
1974-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1334.60	1446.88	38.40%	60.91%	-21.46	2-11
1974-12-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-26	1313.14	1527.12	19.26%	80.05%	-10.37	2-12
1974-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-24	1432.86	1515.48	33.70%	65.61%	-14.78	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-21	1418.08	1411.13	45.98%	53.33%	+11.67	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-16	1429.75	1519.85	32.74%	66.57%	-10.16	1-2
1974-10-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1419.59	1671.21	16.12%	83.20%	-5.01	1-3
1974-10-13	New England Patriots	L 0-24	1414.58	1531.87	37.72%	61.60%	-28.65	1-4
1974-10-20	Baltimore Colts	L 20-35	1385.93	1317.87	63.72%	35.60%	-38.15	1-5
1974-10-27	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1347.78	1612.58	20.57%	78.74%	-8.45	1-6
1974-11-03	Houston Oilers	L 22-27	1339.33	1336.00	54.80%	44.51%	-18.96	1-7
1974-11-10	@ New York Giants	W 26-20	1320.37	1381.12	36.57%	62.75%	+23.76	2-7
1974-11-17	@ New England Patriots	W 21-16	1344.13	1532.23	21.69%	77.62%	+26.84	3-7
1974-11-24	Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1370.97	1715.12	14.09%	85.22%	+22.82	4-7
1974-12-01	San Diego Chargers	W 27-14	1393.79	1316.93	64.87%	34.44%	+19.26	5-7
1974-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1413.05	1570.20	32.50%	66.81%	+32.66	6-7
1974-12-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 45-38	1445.71	1329.96	61.39%	37.92%	+15.56	7-7
1974-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-21	1598.03	1528.29	54.98%	44.33%	-8.51	0-1
1974-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-7	1589.52	1530.26	62.55%	36.77%	+25.49	1-1
1974-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-0	1615.01	1602.84	46.73%	52.58%	+33.55	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 40-24	1648.56	1471.13	69.32%	29.99%	+18.61	3-1
1974-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 14-10	1667.17	1337.05	84.21%	15.10%	+4.70	4-1
1974-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1671.87	1640.36	58.76%	40.55%	+10.88	5-1
1974-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 35-24	1682.75	1403.54	80.06%	19.25%	+9.93	6-1
1974-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-17	1692.68	1520.21	68.72%	30.59%	+15.74	7-1
1974-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 35-13	1708.42	1530.74	76.59%	22.72%	+16.56	8-1
1974-11-17	San Diego Chargers	W 17-10	1724.98	1341.32	91.07%	8.24%	+3.39	9-1
1974-11-24	Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1728.37	1491.58	82.01%	17.30%	-21.96	9-2
1974-12-01	New England Patriots	W 41-26	1706.41	1521.76	77.28%	22.03%	+13.25	10-2
1974-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 7-6	1719.66	1458.96	78.35%	20.96%	+3.26	11-2
1974-12-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-23	1722.92	1639.79	65.68%	33.63%	+10.44	12-2
1974-09-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-7	1414.22	1450.49	39.89%	59.42%	-12.37	0-1
1974-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1401.85	1646.22	22.56%	76.75%	+20.55	1-1
1974-09-29	Baltimore Colts	W 30-10	1422.40	1383.41	59.79%	39.52%	+27.39	2-1
1974-10-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 13-7	1449.79	1352.40	58.87%	40.44%	+15.35	3-1
1974-10-13	New York Giants	W 35-7	1465.14	1414.32	61.41%	37.90%	+31.09	4-1
1974-10-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-31	1496.23	1567.43	35.18%	64.13%	-14.43	4-2
1974-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-14	1481.80	1389.27	58.19%	41.12%	-18.00	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1463.80	1617.08	25.28%	74.03%	-20.40	4-4
1974-11-10	Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1443.40	1607.80	31.59%	67.72%	-12.97	4-5
1974-11-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 3-13	1430.43	1567.33	35.10%	64.21%	-17.21	4-6
1974-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-26	1413.22	1638.92	18.24%	81.08%	-12.36	4-7
1974-12-01	Green Bay Packers	W 36-14	1400.86	1532.11	35.85%	63.46%	+46.02	5-7
1974-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 20-7	1446.88	1334.60	60.91%	38.40%	+21.46	6-7
1974-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 28-17	1468.34	1532.93	45.06%	54.25%	+27.83	7-7
1974-09-15	Baltimore Colts	W 30-0	1582.41	1424.07	74.57%	24.74%	+21.04	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Denver Broncos	T 35-35	1603.45	1515.15	57.60%	41.71%	-0.61	1-0
1974-09-29	Oakland Raiders	L 0-17	1602.84	1615.01	52.58%	46.73%	-33.54	1-1
1974-10-06	@ Houston Oilers	W 13-7	1569.30	1309.52	78.26%	21.05%	+8.01	2-1
1974-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-24	1577.31	1503.45	55.57%	43.74%	+21.42	3-1
1974-10-20	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-16	1598.73	1437.53	74.88%	24.43%	+7.59	4-1
1974-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1606.32	1461.23	73.13%	26.18%	+10.76	5-1
1974-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-0	1617.08	1463.80	74.03%	25.28%	+20.40	6-1
1974-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1637.48	1591.60	51.57%	47.74%	-21.11	6-2
1974-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 26-16	1616.37	1462.09	66.45%	32.86%	+16.12	7-2
1974-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-7	1632.49	1427.63	72.53%	26.78%	+19.05	8-2
1974-12-01	Houston Oilers	L 10-13	1651.54	1429.98	80.72%	18.59%	-21.61	8-3
1974-12-08	@ New England Patriots	W 21-17	1629.93	1508.51	62.15%	37.16%	+11.52	9-3
1974-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1641.45	1549.38	66.82%	32.49%	+24.70	10-3
1974-09-15	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-21	1357.75	1317.45	50.77%	48.54%	-20.78	0-1
1974-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1336.97	1596.99	15.47%	83.84%	+22.45	1-1
1974-09-29	Miami Dolphins	L 21-28	1359.42	1664.19	17.07%	82.24%	-7.02	1-2
1974-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-13	1352.40	1449.79	40.44%	58.87%	-15.35	1-3
1974-10-13	Oakland Raiders	L 10-14	1337.05	1667.17	15.10%	84.21%	-4.70	1-4
1974-10-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 7-27	1332.35	1518.02	21.93%	77.39%	-15.23	1-5
1974-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-24	1317.12	1473.39	32.61%	66.70%	-16.00	1-6
1974-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 36-35	1301.12	1442.99	34.46%	64.86%	+10.03	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-7	1311.15	1462.11	25.54%	73.77%	+30.17	3-6
1974-11-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1341.32	1724.98	8.24%	91.07%	-3.39	3-7
1974-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-34	1337.93	1511.11	23.18%	76.13%	-21.00	3-8
1974-12-01	@ New York Jets	L 14-27	1316.93	1393.79	34.44%	64.87%	-19.26	3-9
1974-12-08	Chicago Bears	W 28-21	1297.67	1320.84	51.01%	48.31%	+19.78	4-9
1974-12-15	Denver Broncos	W 17-0	1317.45	1556.49	23.10%	76.21%	+48.58	5-9
1974-09-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1460.14	1416.54	51.25%	48.07%	+14.88	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 16-10	1475.02	1497.59	41.80%	57.51%	+21.79	2-0
1974-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-21	1496.81	1574.53	43.20%	56.11%	-28.39	2-1
1974-10-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 9-34	1468.42	1526.06	46.05%	53.26%	-35.66	2-2
1974-10-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-17	1432.76	1475.78	38.97%	60.35%	-12.07	2-3
1974-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1420.69	1595.43	23.02%	76.29%	-17.15	2-4
1974-10-27	Oakland Raiders	L 24-35	1403.54	1682.75	19.25%	80.06%	-9.93	2-5
1974-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-15	1393.61	1621.04	24.31%	75.00%	-5.34	2-6
1974-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-20	1388.27	1608.83	18.68%	80.63%	-7.11	2-7
1974-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-0	1381.16	1367.80	46.90%	52.41%	+47.28	3-7
1974-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-0	1428.44	1385.54	60.33%	38.98%	+31.40	4-7
1974-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-7	1459.84	1432.25	48.94%	50.37%	-20.05	4-8
1974-12-08	Green Bay Packers	W 7-6	1439.79	1486.09	47.68%	51.63%	+7.99	5-8
1974-12-15	New Orleans Saints	W 35-21	1447.78	1433.79	56.31%	43.00%	+24.93	6-8
1974-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 7-3	1450.49	1414.22	59.42%	39.89%	+12.36	1-0
1974-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1462.85	1592.09	27.99%	71.33%	+29.17	2-0
1974-09-29	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 29-7	1492.02	1505.17	52.44%	46.87%	+34.04	3-0
1974-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-9	1526.06	1468.42	53.26%	46.05%	+35.65	4-0
1974-10-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-28	1561.71	1580.21	51.68%	47.63%	+12.77	5-0
1974-10-20	@ Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1574.48	1292.20	80.33%	18.98%	+5.90	6-0
1974-10-27	Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1580.38	1601.79	51.26%	48.05%	+12.89	7-0
1974-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1593.27	1596.90	44.47%	54.84%	-11.93	7-1
1974-11-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-28	1581.34	1644.81	45.22%	54.09%	-14.01	7-2
1974-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-3	1567.33	1430.43	64.21%	35.10%	+17.22	8-2
1974-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 23-21	1584.55	1353.49	75.38%	23.93%	+5.25	9-2
1974-12-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1589.80	1436.05	74.08%	25.23%	-22.90	9-3
1974-12-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-14	1566.90	1394.02	68.77%	30.54%	-39.78	9-4
1974-12-15	New York Giants	W 26-14	1527.12	1313.14	80.05%	19.26%	+10.38	10-4
1974-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1583.25	1429.32	66.41%	32.90%	+8.84	1-0
1974-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-17	1592.09	1462.85	71.33%	27.99%	-29.17	1-1
1974-09-30	Denver Broncos	W 30-3	1562.92	1515.76	60.91%	38.40%	+30.93	2-1
1974-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-28	1593.85	1602.92	43.70%	55.61%	-22.45	2-2
1974-10-13	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1571.40	1676.22	39.42%	59.89%	+16.04	3-2
1974-10-20	New York Giants	W 24-3	1587.44	1383.23	79.16%	20.15%	+14.35	4-2
1974-10-27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1601.79	1580.38	48.05%	51.26%	-12.88	4-3
1974-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-6	1588.91	1464.40	62.57%	36.75%	+18.89	5-3
1974-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1607.80	1443.40	67.72%	31.59%	+12.97	6-3
1974-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-21	1620.77	1615.94	55.01%	44.30%	+18.15	7-3
1974-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1638.92	1413.22	81.08%	18.24%	+12.36	8-3
1974-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-24	1651.28	1614.08	50.32%	48.99%	-7.79	8-4
1974-12-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-17	1643.49	1626.72	47.39%	51.92%	+19.68	9-4
1974-12-15	Chicago Bears	W 42-0	1663.17	1301.06	90.08%	9.23%	+9.31	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1974-12-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-32	1525.26	1666.15	26.93%	73.07%	-17.56	0-1
1974-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 19-10	1619.31	1672.48	47.04%	52.96%	+24.43	1-0
1974-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-14	1643.74	1666.87	42.05%	57.95%	-12.93	1-1
1974-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 26-28	1724.09	1733.36	44.01%	55.99%	-9.57	0-1
1974-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-14	1648.12	1537.50	69.51%	30.49%	+18.75	1-0
1974-12-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 14-10	1666.87	1643.74	57.95%	42.05%	+12.92	2-0
1975-01-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-16	1679.79	1715.77	44.84%	55.16%	-21.79	2-1
1974-12-21	Miami Dolphins	W 28-26	1733.36	1724.09	55.99%	44.01%	+9.56	1-0
1974-12-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-24	1742.92	1683.70	62.91%	37.09%	-32.07	1-1
1974-12-22	Buffalo Bills	W 32-14	1666.15	1525.26	73.07%	26.93%	+17.55	1-0
1974-12-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-13	1683.70	1742.92	37.09%	62.91%	+32.07	2-0
1975-01-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-6	1715.77	1679.79	55.16%	44.84%	+21.80	3-0
1974-12-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-30	1537.50	1648.12	30.49%	69.51%	-18.75	0-1
1974-12-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-19	1672.48	1619.31	52.96%	47.04%	-24.42	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1974-10-27	10.19%	Houston Oilers	1286.30	34	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1629.48	21
2	1974-11-24	14.09%	@ New York Jets	1370.97	17	Miami Dolphins	1715.12	14
3	1974-09-22	15.47%	San Diego Chargers	1336.97	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1596.99	17
4	1974-11-10	16.26%	Houston Oilers	1354.95	21	@ Buffalo Bills	1604.79	9
5	1974-11-24	17.30%	Denver Broncos	1491.58	20	@ Oakland Raiders	1728.37	17
6	1974-09-29	18.17%	New York Giants	1399.18	14	@ Dallas Cowboys	1625.67	6
7	1974-12-01	18.59%	Houston Oilers	1429.98	13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1651.54	10
8	1974-09-15	20.63%	@ New England Patriots	1421.50	34	Miami Dolphins	1685.72	24
9	1974-11-17	21.28%	@ New Orleans Saints	1384.13	20	Los Angeles Rams	1641.50	7
10	1974-11-17	21.57%	Green Bay Packers	1469.48	19	@ Minnesota Vikings	1658.81	7
11	1974-11-17	21.69%	New York Jets	1344.13	21	@ New England Patriots	1532.23	16
12	1974-10-20	22.21%	Detroit Lions	1487.86	20	@ Minnesota Vikings	1670.65	16
13	1974-09-23	22.56%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1401.85	13	Dallas Cowboys	1646.22	10
14	1974-12-15	23.10%	@ San Diego Chargers	1317.45	17	Denver Broncos	1556.49	0
15	1974-12-01	25.23%	Kansas City Chiefs	1436.05	17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1589.80	13
16	1974-11-10	25.54%	San Diego Chargers	1311.15	14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1462.11	7
17	1974-11-17	25.84%	@ Houston Oilers	1399.44	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1612.71	3
18	1974-10-20	26.39%	New Orleans Saints	1353.62	13	@ Atlanta Falcons	1496.87	3
19	1974-11-03	27.26%	New York Giants	1353.84	33	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1489.39	27
20	1974-09-22	27.99%	St. Louis Cardinals	1462.85	17	@ Washington Redskins	1592.09	10
21	1974-11-10	28.08%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1432.96	21	@ New England Patriots	1561.36	14
22	1974-10-13	28.97%	@ Green Bay Packers	1445.53	17	Los Angeles Rams	1631.50	6
23	1974-12-08	30.54%	@ New Orleans Saints	1394.02	14	St. Louis Cardinals	1566.90	0
24	1974-09-29	31.03%	@ New England Patriots	1481.27	20	Los Angeles Rams	1650.20	14
25	1974-11-17	31.97%	Baltimore Colts	1322.19	17	@ Atlanta Falcons	1418.46	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1974-10-27	49.71	Houston Oilers	34	1286.30	10.19%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	21	1629.48	89.13%
2	1974-12-15	48.58	@ San Diego Chargers	17	1317.45	23.10%	Denver Broncos	0	1556.49	76.21%
3	1974-11-17	47.28	San Francisco 49ers	34	1381.16	46.90%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1367.80	52.41%
4	1974-11-17	46.83	@ Houston Oilers	20	1399.44	25.84%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1612.71	73.47%
5	1974-12-01	46.02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	36	1400.86	35.85%	Green Bay Packers	14	1532.11	63.46%
6	1974-11-10	44.49	Houston Oilers	21	1354.95	16.26%	@ Buffalo Bills	9	1604.79	83.06%
7	1974-11-17	43.50	@ New Orleans Saints	20	1384.13	21.28%	Los Angeles Rams	7	1641.50	78.03%
8	1974-11-17	41.63	Green Bay Packers	19	1469.48	21.57%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1658.81	77.74%
9	1974-12-08	39.78	@ New Orleans Saints	14	1394.02	30.54%	St. Louis Cardinals	0	1566.90	68.77%
10	1974-09-15	38.47	@ New England Patriots	34	1421.50	20.63%	Miami Dolphins	24	1685.72	78.68%
11	1974-10-20	38.15	Baltimore Colts	35	1317.87	35.60%	@ New York Jets	20	1385.93	63.72%
12	1974-10-13	36.07	@ Green Bay Packers	17	1445.53	28.97%	Los Angeles Rams	6	1631.50	70.34%
13	1974-10-06	35.66	St. Louis Cardinals	34	1526.06	53.26%	@ San Francisco 49ers	9	1468.42	46.05%
14	1974-10-20	35.65	New Orleans Saints	13	1353.62	26.39%	@ Atlanta Falcons	3	1496.87	72.92%
15	1974-09-29	35.49	New York Giants	14	1399.18	18.17%	@ Dallas Cowboys	6	1625.67	81.14%
16	1974-09-29	34.04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	29	1492.02	52.44%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	7	1505.17	46.87%
17	1974-09-29	33.55	Oakland Raiders	17	1615.01	46.73%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1602.84	52.58%
18	1974-11-17	32.93	Baltimore Colts	17	1322.19	31.97%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1418.46	67.35%
19	1974-12-08	32.66	@ New York Jets	20	1413.05	32.50%	Buffalo Bills	10	1570.20	66.81%
20	1974-10-06	32.44	Buffalo Bills	27	1530.01	52.46%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1477.97	46.85%
21	1974-12-29 *	32.07	Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1683.70	37.09%	@ Oakland Raiders	13	1742.92	62.91%
22	1974-09-15	32.06	Dallas Cowboys	24	1614.16	57.07%	@ Atlanta Falcons	0	1529.65	42.24%
23	1974-11-24	31.40	@ San Francisco 49ers	27	1428.44	60.33%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1385.54	38.98%
24	1974-10-13	31.09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	35	1465.14	61.41%	New York Giants	7	1414.32	37.90%
25	1974-09-30	30.93	@ Washington Redskins	30	1562.92	60.91%	Denver Broncos	3	1515.76	38.40%