1963 NFL Season

98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Chicago Bears

8th Title

Last Title: 1946

Runner-Up

New York Giants

14th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1962

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.41 wins above expected

11 wins · 9.59 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

2.87 wins below expected

5 wins · 8.37 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	11	3	0	.786	—	448	280	+168	9.53	+1.47
2	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	4	0	.714	1	343	262	+81	8.96	+1.04
3	St. Louis Cardinals	9	5	0	.643	2	341	283	+58	7.26	+1.74
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	4	3	.607	2.5	321	295	+26	7.55	+0.95
5	Dallas Cowboys	4	10	0	.286	7	305	378	-73	4.96	-0.96
6	Washington Redskins	3	11	0	.214	8	279	398	-119	4.79	-1.79
7	Philadelphia Eagles	2	10	2	.214	8	242	381	-139	5.53	-2.53

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	1	2	.857	—	301	144	+157	9.59	+2.41
2	Green Bay Packers	11	2	1	.821	0.5	369	206	+163	10.66	+0.84
3	Baltimore Colts	8	6	0	.571	4	316	285	+31	7.01	+0.99
4	Detroit Lions	5	8	1	.393	6.5	326	265	+61	8.37	-2.87
5	Minnesota Vikings	5	8	1	.393	6.5	309	390	-81	4.78	+0.72
6	Los Angeles Rams	5	9	0	.357	7	210	350	-140	4.23	+0.77
7	San Francisco 49ers	2	12	0	.143	10	198	391	-193	4.77	-2.77

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Chicago Bears 14

New York Giants 10

Dec 29

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	West	1736	11.5	10.66	+0.84	78.72%	3	7	9	10	11	13	14
Chicago Bears	West	1714	12	9.59	+2.41	98.45%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
New York Giants	East	1691	11	9.53	+1.47	92.68%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1574	10	8.96	+1.04	87.32%	1	6	7	9	10	11	14
Detroit Lions	West	1556	5.5	8.37	-2.87	8.33%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1554	8.5	7.55	+0.95	78.64%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Colts	West	1551	8	7.01	+0.99	86.85%	1	4	5	7	8	9	12
St. Louis Cardinals	East	1537	9	7.26	+1.74	93.83%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Minnesota Vikings	West	1394	5.5	4.78	+0.72	76.54%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Dallas Cowboys	East	1386	4	4.96	-0.96	51.41%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1369	5	4.23	+0.77	85.68%	0	1	3	4	5	6	9
San Francisco 49ers	West	1324	2	4.77	-2.77	12.54%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1316	3	5.53	-2.53	17.93%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Washington Redskins	East	1299	3	4.79	-1.79	32.39%	0	2	3	4	5	7	13

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Dallas Cowboys	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Chicago Bears	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	(1st)	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	—	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	1.02%	—	—	5.10%
7–13	1.02%	3.06%	1.02%	3.06%	4.08%	1.53%	1.02%	14.80%
14–20	1.02%	1.02%	9.18%	6.63%	2.55%	3.06%	3.06%	26.53%
21–27	1.02%	3.06%	6.63%	7.14%	3.06%	4.08%	—	25.00%
28–34	1.02%	4.08%	2.55%	3.06%	2.04%	1.53%	—	14.29%
35–41	—	1.53%	3.06%	4.08%	1.53%	—	—	10.20%
42+	—	1.02%	3.06%	—	—	—	—	4.08%
Total	5.10%	14.80%	26.53%	25.00%	14.29%	10.20%	4.08%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.98	21.98	+0.00
SD	10.75	10.75	16.76
CV	0.49	0.49	—
Max	56	56	+42
Min	0	0	-42

Games Played: 98

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	7.14%	—	21.43%	—	14.29%	—	—	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.57	20.36	+2.21
SD	10.65	10.23	12.60
CV	0.47	0.50	—
Max	41	37	+31
Min	3	3	-14

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	14.29%	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
21–27	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	35.71%	35.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.50	10.29	+11.21
SD	12.16	6.75	11.07
CV	0.57	0.66	—
Max	52	21	+38
Min	6	0	-6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
14–20	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.50	18.71	+5.79
SD	11.80	9.41	16.74
CV	0.48	0.50	—
Max	41	38	+30
Min	6	6	-28

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	—	50.00%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	42.86%	21.43%	14.29%	—	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.79	27.00	-5.21
SD	6.65	7.54	10.66
CV	0.31	0.28	—
Max	35	41	+15
Min	7	14	-27

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
21–27	14.29%	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	18.93	+4.36
SD	9.82	11.61	17.86
CV	0.42	0.61	—
Max	45	37	+38
Min	10	2	-21

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	28.57%	28.57%	—	—	—	—	57.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	50.00%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.36	14.71	+11.64
SD	11.34	6.66	13.40
CV	0.43	0.45	—
Max	42	28	+32
Min	3	7	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
28–34	—	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	—	28.57%	35.71%	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.00	25.00	-10.00
SD	8.90	11.83	14.56
CV	0.59	0.47	—
Max	28	52	+7
Min	0	6	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	21.43%	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	14.29%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	28.57%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.07	27.86	-5.79
SD	11.87	12.27	19.71
CV	0.54	0.44	—
Max	45	56	+31
Min	7	13	-42

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
28–34	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
42+	—	—	21.43%	—	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	7.14%	—	42.86%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	32.00	20.00	+12.00
SD	12.38	8.14	18.07
CV	0.39	0.41	—
Max	48	35	+34
Min	0	6	-31

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	28.57%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	14.29%	7.14%	42.86%
21–27	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	35.71%	14.29%	21.43%	7.14%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.29	27.21	-9.93
SD	7.96	9.02	13.06
CV	0.46	0.33	—
Max	37	42	+13
Min	7	13	-30

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
21–27	—	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
28–34	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	21.43%	28.57%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.93	21.07	+1.86
SD	7.79	10.22	12.61
CV	0.34	0.48	—
Max	38	35	+31
Min	9	0	-19

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
7–13	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
14–20	—	—	14.29%	21.43%	—	—	14.29%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
28–34	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	21.43%	42.86%	14.29%	—	21.43%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.14	27.93	-13.79
SD	7.76	10.51	14.31
CV	0.55	0.38	—
Max	31	48	+7
Min	3	14	-38

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
14–20	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
21–27	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
28–34	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	14.29%	35.71%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

St. Louis Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	24.36	20.21	+4.14
SD	12.56	8.74	18.28
CV	0.52	0.43	—
Max	56	38	+42
Min	7	7	-23

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
14–20	—	—	—	21.43%	—	21.43%	7.14%	50.00%
21–27	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	21.43%
28–34	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
35–41	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	7.14%	14.29%	28.57%	7.14%	35.71%	7.14%	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.93	28.43	-8.50
SD	7.57	10.33	12.83
CV	0.38	0.36	—
Max	37	44	+23
Min	7	10	-30

Games Played: 14

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	12	9.59	+2.41
2	St. Louis Cardinals	9	7.26	+1.74
3	New York Giants	11	9.53	+1.47
4	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	8.96	+1.04
5	Baltimore Colts	8	7.01	+0.99

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	5.5	8.37	-2.87
2	San Francisco 49ers	2	4.77	-2.77
3	Philadelphia Eagles	3	5.53	-2.53
4	Washington Redskins	3	4.79	-1.79
5	Dallas Cowboys	4	4.96	-0.96

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Los Angeles Rams	3	Nov 17 – Dec 1	1 in 47
2	Chicago Bears	5	Sep 15 – Oct 13	1 in 23
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 22
4	St. Louis Cardinals	3	Nov 10 – Nov 24	1 in 17
5	Green Bay Packers	8	Sep 22 – Nov 10	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	3	Nov 10 – Nov 24	1 in 66
2	San Francisco 49ers	5	Sep 15 – Oct 13	1 in 34
3	Washington Redskins	7	Oct 6 – Nov 17	1 in 30
4	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Oct 20 – Nov 24	1 in 24
5	Dallas Cowboys	4	Sep 14 – Oct 6	1 in 12

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
New York Giants	47.80%	27.97%	14.37%	6.22%	2.62%	0.83%	0.19%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.92%	31.32%	18.33%	10.31%	4.68%	1.96%	0.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.27%	18.01%	24.39%	22.52%	14.81%	7.72%	3.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.79%	15.46%	23.25%	23.53%	15.25%	9.88%	4.84%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.33%	3.48%	8.96%	15.88%	24.10%	25.10%	21.15%
Dallas Cowboys	0.49%	1.91%	5.94%	11.63%	19.66%	27.23%	33.14%
Washington Redskins	0.40%	1.85%	4.76%	9.91%	18.88%	27.28%	36.92%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Green Bay Packers	59.17%	26.94%	10.46%	2.87%	0.51%	0.05%	—
Chicago Bears	27.61%	39.34%	22.31%	8.32%	1.80%	0.54%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	10.29%	22.72%	35.95%	20.24%	7.63%	2.43%	0.74%
Baltimore Colts	2.81%	8.85%	21.67%	36.13%	18.11%	8.64%	3.79%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	1.02%	3.88%	12.83%	26.22%	29.12%	26.87%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	0.85%	3.35%	11.85%	26.37%	29.24%	28.30%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	0.28%	2.38%	7.76%	19.36%	29.98%	40.22%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Green Bay Packers	43.91%	21.38%	15.02%	8.76%	5.37%	2.69%	1.60%	0.78%	0.36%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Chicago Bears	18.12%	17.69%	20.15%	15.23%	11.25%	7.71%	4.75%	2.62%	1.13%	0.80%	0.33%	0.13%	0.07%	0.02%
New York Giants	16.19%	23.30%	16.97%	15.57%	9.42%	7.95%	4.52%	2.77%	1.61%	0.88%	0.50%	0.22%	0.09%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	9.45%	17.26%	15.14%	17.12%	12.30%	9.68%	7.61%	4.68%	3.06%	1.91%	1.01%	0.43%	0.27%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	6.23%	8.07%	12.48%	13.08%	16.58%	14.05%	10.33%	7.64%	4.89%	3.35%	1.69%	0.95%	0.45%	0.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.37%	4.90%	7.08%	10.25%	12.38%	13.63%	12.72%	11.95%	9.07%	6.58%	4.23%	2.57%	1.61%	0.66%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.94%	3.85%	5.68%	8.85%	10.92%	13.54%	13.55%	12.00%	9.77%	6.94%	5.40%	4.19%	2.28%	1.09%
Baltimore Colts	1.50%	2.26%	4.86%	5.76%	10.49%	12.16%	15.04%	14.98%	9.79%	8.80%	5.74%	4.22%	2.74%	1.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.14%	0.64%	0.97%	1.95%	3.49%	5.68%	8.14%	9.81%	12.84%	12.58%	13.22%	12.05%	10.33%	8.16%
Dallas Cowboys	0.06%	0.26%	0.44%	0.97%	2.01%	3.79%	5.37%	7.56%	10.54%	11.41%	13.96%	14.02%	15.65%	13.96%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.09%	0.47%	0.73%	1.67%	2.36%	4.68%	7.28%	10.48%	12.80%	13.52%	14.78%	14.82%	16.30%
Washington Redskins	0.07%	0.18%	0.32%	0.98%	1.89%	2.89%	4.98%	6.30%	9.62%	10.92%	13.74%	15.10%	16.55%	16.46%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.08%	0.34%	0.51%	1.41%	2.34%	4.13%	7.14%	9.75%	13.11%	13.84%	15.53%	15.64%	16.18%
Los Angeles Rams	—	0.04%	0.08%	0.24%	0.82%	1.53%	2.58%	4.49%	7.09%	9.83%	12.80%	15.80%	19.49%	25.21%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New York Giants	47.80%	52.20%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.92%	67.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.27%	90.73%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.79%	92.21%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.33%	98.67%
Dallas Cowboys	0.49%	99.51%
Washington Redskins	0.40%	99.60%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	59.17%	40.83%
Chicago Bears	27.61%	72.39%
Detroit Lions	10.29%	89.71%
Baltimore Colts	2.81%	97.19%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	99.94%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	99.96%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	99.98%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	59.17%	39.65%
New York Giants	47.80%	22.06%
Chicago Bears	27.61%	17.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.92%	10.41%
Detroit Lions	10.29%	3.93%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.27%	3.00%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.79%	1.96%
Baltimore Colts	2.81%	1.27%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.33%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.49%	0.08%
Washington Redskins	0.40%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings	0.06%	0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	—
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts			0.60%	0.02%					0.29%	0.01%	0.15%		0.20%
Chicago Bears			6.16%	0.11%					7.32%	0.29%	1.61%		1.84%	0.14%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.53%	2.65%			1.67%	5.53%		0.02%				0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.01%	0.01%			0.01%	0.05%
Detroit Lions			1.17%	0.02%					1.66%	0.14%	0.56%		0.35%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers			14.57%	0.26%					16.47%	0.80%	3.95%		3.44%	0.16%
Minnesota Vikings			0.01%
New York Giants	0.79%	6.03%			3.49%	11.70%	0.01%	0.03%				0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.01%			0.04%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.13%	0.76%			0.64%	1.45%						0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.07%	0.67%			0.49%	0.72%	0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.01%			0.02%	0.04%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	56.81%
New York Giants	43.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	New York Giants
Chicago Bears		56.81%
New York Giants	43.19%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Chicago Bears 56.81% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.81%

New York Giants 43.19% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.19%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-09-15	New York Giants	L 28-37	1506.06	1594.54	37.77%	55.66%	-18.01	0-1
1963-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-14	1488.05	1460.02	47.17%	46.26%	+17.79	1-1
1963-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-31	1505.84	1672.74	22.48%	71.04%	-12.11	1-2
1963-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1493.73	1633.85	25.28%	68.21%	-10.81	1-3
1963-10-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-3	1482.92	1381.14	63.79%	29.67%	+19.67	2-3
1963-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 25-21	1502.59	1565.49	34.55%	58.89%	+18.28	3-3
1963-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 20-34	1520.87	1723.07	23.96%	69.55%	-14.53	3-4
1963-11-03	Chicago Bears	L 7-17	1506.34	1638.98	31.99%	61.46%	-16.21	3-5
1963-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1490.13	1587.02	36.64%	56.80%	+15.29	4-5
1963-11-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-34	1505.42	1368.89	61.95%	31.51%	+8.75	5-5
1963-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-17	1514.17	1359.25	64.20%	29.26%	-9.95	5-6
1963-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 36-20	1504.22	1332.99	66.12%	27.35%	+17.65	6-6
1963-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-10	1521.87	1380.92	68.31%	25.19%	+22.69	7-6
1963-12-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1544.56	1375.58	71.25%	22.27%	+6.27	8-6
1963-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 10-3	1555.70	1669.75	28.22%	65.25%	+26.76	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-7	1582.46	1412.99	65.92%	27.56%	+20.36	2-0
1963-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-21	1602.82	1598.24	43.81%	49.62%	+31.03	3-0
1963-10-06	Baltimore Colts	W 10-3	1633.85	1493.73	68.21%	25.28%	+10.82	4-0
1963-10-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 52-14	1644.67	1328.86	79.54%	14.08%	+14.26	5-0
1963-10-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-20	1658.93	1361.47	78.20%	15.41%	-29.72	5-1
1963-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-7	1629.21	1436.36	73.56%	19.98%	+9.77	6-1
1963-11-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1638.98	1506.34	61.46%	31.99%	+16.21	7-1
1963-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 6-0	1655.19	1331.51	83.17%	10.54%	+4.26	8-1
1963-11-17	Green Bay Packers	W 26-7	1659.45	1758.86	36.30%	57.14%	+38.70	9-1
1963-11-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 17-17	1698.15	1565.42	61.47%	31.98%	-1.10	9-1
1963-12-01	Minnesota Vikings	T 17-17	1697.05	1378.15	82.91%	10.80%	-2.78	9-1
1963-12-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-7	1694.27	1333.58	85.08%	8.70%	+6.43	10-1
1963-12-15	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1700.70	1569.27	67.25%	26.23%	+13.40	11-1
1963-09-15	Washington Redskins	W 37-14	1519.05	1403.11	65.48%	28.00%	+21.64	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-24	1540.69	1411.40	61.04%	32.41%	+21.40	2-0
1963-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-6	1562.09	1348.67	75.41%	18.16%	+11.10	3-0
1963-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-23	1573.19	1569.73	50.76%	42.67%	+23.33	4-0
1963-10-13	@ New York Giants	W 35-24	1596.52	1602.23	42.35%	51.08%	+26.44	5-0
1963-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-7	1622.96	1456.39	71.01%	22.51%	+20.03	6-0
1963-10-27	New York Giants	L 6-33	1642.99	1589.02	57.71%	35.73%	-46.59	6-1
1963-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1596.40	1426.59	65.96%	27.52%	+10.87	7-1
1963-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-9	1607.27	1545.58	51.96%	41.47%	-11.46	7-2
1963-11-17	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-20	1595.81	1519.60	60.61%	32.84%	-23.03	7-3
1963-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-17	1572.78	1389.76	72.63%	20.90%	+10.76	8-3
1963-12-01	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-10	1583.54	1570.67	44.99%	48.43%	+28.37	9-3
1963-12-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-38	1611.91	1523.47	55.66%	37.78%	-45.81	9-4
1963-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1566.10	1306.94	75.06%	18.50%	+7.99	10-4
1963-09-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-34	1451.65	1456.75	49.54%	43.88%	-40.25	0-1
1963-09-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-41	1411.40	1540.69	32.41%	61.04%	-21.41	0-2
1963-09-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-21	1389.99	1419.68	39.01%	54.42%	-12.37	0-3
1963-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-24	1377.62	1418.65	37.46%	55.97%	-10.32	0-4
1963-10-13	Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1367.30	1584.58	22.41%	71.11%	+19.09	1-4
1963-10-20	@ New York Giants	L 21-37	1386.39	1575.79	20.30%	73.24%	-13.23	1-5
1963-10-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1373.16	1552.35	21.27%	72.26%	-8.48	1-6
1963-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 35-20	1364.68	1358.17	51.19%	42.24%	+25.84	2-6
1963-11-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-31	1390.52	1344.77	49.70%	43.72%	-20.56	2-7
1963-11-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1369.96	1402.10	45.67%	47.76%	+19.80	3-7
1963-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1389.76	1572.78	20.90%	72.63%	-10.76	3-8
1963-12-01	New York Giants	L 27-34	1379.00	1656.05	17.00%	76.58%	-7.36	3-9
1963-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-24	1371.64	1564.43	24.96%	68.54%	-9.03	3-10
1963-12-15	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-24	1362.61	1559.65	19.60%	73.95%	+22.93	4-10
1963-09-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-2	1610.49	1404.38	69.96%	23.55%	+17.50	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-31	1627.99	1642.99	41.05%	52.38%	-29.75	1-1
1963-09-29	Chicago Bears	L 21-37	1598.24	1602.82	49.62%	43.81%	-31.03	1-2
1963-10-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-3	1567.21	1398.51	71.22%	22.30%	+17.37	2-2
1963-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-17	1584.58	1367.30	71.11%	22.41%	-19.09	2-3
1963-10-20	Baltimore Colts	L 21-25	1565.49	1502.59	58.89%	34.55%	-18.28	2-4
1963-10-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-10	1547.21	1370.86	71.98%	21.54%	+14.86	3-4
1963-11-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 45-7	1562.07	1369.72	68.49%	25.00%	+24.95	4-4
1963-11-10	@ Baltimore Colts	L 21-24	1587.02	1490.13	56.80%	36.64%	-15.29	4-5
1963-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-28	1571.73	1327.25	77.95%	15.65%	-32.00	4-6
1963-11-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 31-34	1539.73	1360.14	67.08%	26.41%	-18.00	4-7
1963-11-28	Green Bay Packers	T 13-13	1521.73	1726.09	23.73%	69.77%	+1.74	4-7
1963-12-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 38-10	1523.47	1611.91	37.78%	55.66%	+45.80	5-7
1963-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1569.27	1700.70	26.23%	67.25%	-13.40	5-8
1963-09-15	Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1669.75	1555.70	65.25%	28.22%	-26.76	0-1
1963-09-22	Detroit Lions	W 31-10	1642.99	1627.99	52.38%	41.05%	+29.75	1-1
1963-09-29	Baltimore Colts	W 31-20	1672.74	1505.84	71.04%	22.48%	+12.11	2-1
1963-10-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 42-10	1684.85	1337.57	84.42%	9.33%	+8.71	3-1
1963-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 37-28	1693.56	1392.67	78.46%	15.15%	+7.46	4-1
1963-10-20	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 30-7	1701.02	1540.07	64.92%	28.55%	+22.05	5-1
1963-10-27	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-20	1723.07	1520.87	69.55%	23.96%	+14.53	6-1
1963-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-14	1737.60	1560.83	72.02%	21.50%	+15.24	7-1
1963-11-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-7	1752.84	1374.91	85.86%	7.95%	+6.02	8-1
1963-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-26	1758.86	1659.45	57.14%	36.30%	-38.71	8-2
1963-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-10	1720.15	1354.35	85.31%	8.47%	+5.94	9-2
1963-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	T 13-13	1726.09	1521.73	69.77%	23.73%	-1.74	9-2
1963-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1724.35	1384.04	81.20%	12.47%	+8.46	10-2
1963-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1732.81	1327.16	84.85%	8.92%	+2.94	11-2
1963-09-14	Detroit Lions	L 2-23	1404.38	1610.49	23.55%	69.96%	-17.50	0-1
1963-09-21	Washington Redskins	L 14-37	1386.88	1381.47	51.03%	42.39%	-38.21	0-2
1963-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 6-20	1348.67	1562.09	18.16%	75.41%	-11.10	0-3
1963-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-42	1337.57	1684.85	9.33%	84.42%	-8.71	0-4
1963-10-13	Chicago Bears	L 14-52	1328.86	1644.67	14.08%	79.54%	-14.26	0-5
1963-10-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1314.60	1385.21	40.23%	53.21%	+14.36	1-5
1963-10-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-21	1328.96	1391.19	41.39%	52.03%	+21.47	2-5
1963-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1350.43	1355.99	42.37%	51.06%	-18.92	2-6
1963-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 0-6	1331.51	1655.19	10.54%	83.17%	-4.26	2-7
1963-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-21	1327.25	1571.73	15.65%	77.95%	+32.00	3-7
1963-11-24	Baltimore Colts	W 17-16	1359.25	1514.17	29.26%	64.20%	+9.95	4-7
1963-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-17	1369.20	1348.41	46.13%	47.30%	+14.84	5-7
1963-12-07	Green Bay Packers	L 14-31	1384.04	1724.35	12.47%	81.20%	-8.46	5-8
1963-12-15	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-19	1375.58	1544.56	22.27%	71.25%	-6.27	5-9
1963-09-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-20	1393.83	1479.18	31.69%	61.77%	+19.16	1-0
1963-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 7-28	1412.99	1582.46	27.56%	65.92%	-20.37	1-1
1963-09-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 45-14	1392.62	1442.22	43.18%	50.25%	+43.72	2-1
1963-10-06	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-56	1436.34	1489.31	42.70%	50.73%	-43.67	2-2
1963-10-13	Green Bay Packers	L 28-37	1392.67	1693.56	15.15%	78.46%	-7.46	2-3
1963-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1385.21	1314.60	53.21%	40.23%	-14.35	2-4
1963-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-28	1370.86	1547.21	21.54%	71.98%	-14.87	2-5
1963-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	W 21-13	1355.99	1350.43	51.06%	42.37%	+18.92	3-5
1963-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1374.91	1752.84	7.95%	85.86%	-6.02	3-6
1963-11-17	Baltimore Colts	L 34-37	1368.89	1505.42	31.51%	61.95%	-8.75	3-7
1963-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1360.14	1539.73	26.41%	67.08%	+18.01	4-7
1963-12-01	@ Chicago Bears	T 17-17	1378.15	1697.05	10.80%	82.91%	+2.77	4-7
1963-12-08	@ Baltimore Colts	L 10-41	1380.92	1521.87	25.19%	68.31%	-22.69	4-8
1963-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-13	1358.23	1351.12	44.17%	49.26%	+35.31	5-8
1963-09-15	@ Baltimore Colts	W 37-28	1594.54	1506.06	55.66%	37.77%	+18.01	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-31	1612.55	1496.68	59.31%	34.13%	-51.27	1-1
1963-09-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-14	1561.28	1444.73	59.40%	34.04%	+26.09	2-1
1963-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1587.37	1432.06	64.25%	29.22%	+14.86	3-1
1963-10-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-35	1602.23	1596.52	51.08%	42.35%	-26.44	3-2
1963-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	W 37-21	1575.79	1386.39	73.24%	20.30%	+13.23	4-2
1963-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 33-6	1589.02	1642.99	35.73%	57.71%	+46.58	5-2
1963-11-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 38-21	1635.60	1536.59	57.09%	36.35%	+23.87	6-2
1963-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-14	1659.47	1415.72	77.89%	15.71%	+13.62	7-2
1963-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 48-14	1673.09	1365.33	82.26%	11.43%	+10.98	8-2
1963-11-24	St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1684.07	1542.64	68.36%	25.13%	-28.02	8-3
1963-12-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-27	1656.05	1379.00	76.58%	17.00%	+7.36	9-3
1963-12-08	Washington Redskins	W 44-14	1663.41	1315.34	84.46%	9.29%	+8.40	10-3
1963-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-17	1671.81	1573.47	63.38%	30.09%	+19.34	11-3
1963-09-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 21-21	1458.69	1496.82	44.81%	48.62%	+0.14	0-0
1963-09-22	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-28	1458.83	1497.00	44.80%	48.62%	-14.10	0-1
1963-09-29	New York Giants	L 14-37	1444.73	1561.28	34.04%	59.40%	-26.08	0-2
1963-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-21	1418.65	1377.62	55.97%	37.46%	+10.31	1-2
1963-10-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-24	1428.96	1417.20	44.83%	48.59%	+27.43	2-2
1963-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-37	1456.39	1622.96	22.51%	71.01%	-20.03	2-3
1963-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-16	1436.36	1629.21	19.98%	73.56%	-9.77	2-4
1963-11-03	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-23	1426.59	1596.40	27.52%	65.96%	-10.87	2-5
1963-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 14-42	1415.72	1659.47	15.71%	77.89%	-13.62	2-6
1963-11-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1402.10	1369.96	47.76%	45.67%	-19.80	2-7
1963-11-24	Washington Redskins	L 10-13	1382.30	1317.08	59.19%	34.25%	-15.92	2-8
1963-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 20-20	1366.38	1566.52	19.32%	74.23%	+2.09	2-8
1963-12-08	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-38	1368.47	1542.29	21.79%	71.73%	-17.35	2-9
1963-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-34	1351.12	1358.23	49.26%	44.17%	-35.31	2-10
1963-09-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 21-21	1496.82	1458.69	48.62%	44.81%	-0.14	0-0
1963-09-22	New York Giants	W 31-0	1496.68	1612.55	34.13%	59.31%	+51.26	1-0
1963-09-29	St. Louis Cardinals	W 23-10	1547.94	1511.10	55.40%	38.03%	+21.79	2-0
1963-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-35	1569.73	1573.19	42.67%	50.76%	-23.33	2-1
1963-10-13	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 23-24	1546.40	1532.98	45.07%	48.36%	-7.09	2-2
1963-10-20	Washington Redskins	W 38-27	1539.31	1389.77	69.23%	24.27%	+13.04	3-2
1963-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1552.35	1373.16	72.26%	21.27%	+8.48	4-2
1963-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-33	1560.83	1737.60	21.50%	72.02%	-15.25	4-3
1963-11-10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 9-7	1545.58	1607.27	41.47%	51.96%	+11.46	5-3
1963-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-28	1557.04	1325.45	72.52%	21.01%	+8.38	6-3
1963-11-24	Chicago Bears	T 17-17	1565.42	1698.15	31.98%	61.47%	+1.10	6-3
1963-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	T 20-20	1566.52	1366.38	74.23%	19.32%	-2.09	6-3
1963-12-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-19	1564.43	1371.64	68.54%	24.96%	+9.04	7-3
1963-12-15	@ New York Giants	L 17-33	1573.47	1671.81	30.09%	63.38%	-19.34	7-4
1963-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-24	1479.18	1393.83	61.77%	31.69%	-19.16	0-1
1963-09-22	Baltimore Colts	L 14-20	1460.02	1488.05	46.26%	47.17%	-17.80	0-2
1963-09-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-45	1442.22	1392.62	50.25%	43.18%	-43.71	0-3
1963-10-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-26	1398.51	1567.21	22.30%	71.22%	-17.37	0-4
1963-10-13	@ Baltimore Colts	L 3-20	1381.14	1482.92	29.67%	63.79%	-19.67	0-5
1963-10-20	Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1361.47	1658.93	15.41%	78.20%	+29.72	1-5
1963-10-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-28	1391.19	1328.96	52.03%	41.39%	-21.47	1-6
1963-11-03	Detroit Lions	L 7-45	1369.72	1562.07	25.00%	68.49%	-24.95	1-7
1963-11-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1344.77	1390.52	43.72%	49.70%	+20.56	2-7
1963-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 14-48	1365.33	1673.09	11.43%	82.26%	-10.98	2-8
1963-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1354.35	1720.15	8.47%	85.31%	-5.94	2-9
1963-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-21	1348.41	1369.20	47.30%	46.13%	-14.83	2-10
1963-12-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-27	1333.58	1694.27	8.70%	85.08%	-6.42	2-11
1963-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 17-21	1327.16	1732.81	8.92%	84.85%	-2.95	2-12
1963-09-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-7	1456.75	1451.65	43.88%	49.54%	+40.25	1-0
1963-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-24	1497.00	1458.83	48.62%	44.80%	+14.10	2-0
1963-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1511.10	1547.94	38.03%	55.40%	-21.79	2-1
1963-10-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 56-14	1489.31	1436.34	50.73%	42.70%	+43.67	3-1
1963-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-23	1532.98	1546.40	48.36%	45.07%	+7.09	4-1
1963-10-20	Green Bay Packers	L 7-30	1540.07	1701.02	28.55%	64.92%	-22.05	4-2
1963-10-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-7	1518.02	1376.73	62.54%	30.92%	+18.57	5-2
1963-11-03	New York Giants	L 21-38	1536.59	1635.60	36.35%	57.09%	-23.87	5-3
1963-11-10	Washington Redskins	W 24-20	1512.72	1332.34	72.37%	21.15%	+6.88	6-3
1963-11-17	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 20-14	1519.60	1595.81	32.84%	60.61%	+23.04	7-3
1963-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1542.64	1684.07	25.13%	68.36%	+28.03	8-3
1963-12-01	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-24	1570.67	1583.54	48.43%	44.99%	-28.38	8-4
1963-12-08	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-14	1542.29	1368.47	71.73%	21.79%	+17.36	9-4
1963-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-28	1559.65	1362.61	73.95%	19.60%	-22.93	9-5
1963-09-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-37	1403.11	1519.05	28.00%	65.48%	-21.64	0-1
1963-09-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-14	1381.47	1386.88	42.39%	51.03%	+38.21	1-1
1963-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1419.68	1389.99	54.42%	39.01%	+12.38	2-1
1963-10-06	New York Giants	L 14-24	1432.06	1587.37	29.22%	64.25%	-14.86	2-2
1963-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-37	1417.20	1428.96	48.59%	44.83%	-27.43	2-3
1963-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-38	1389.77	1539.31	24.27%	69.23%	-13.04	2-4
1963-10-27	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-21	1376.73	1518.02	30.92%	62.54%	-18.56	2-5
1963-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-35	1358.17	1364.68	42.24%	51.19%	-25.83	2-6
1963-11-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-24	1332.34	1512.72	21.15%	72.37%	-6.89	2-7
1963-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-34	1325.45	1557.04	21.01%	72.52%	-8.37	2-8
1963-11-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-10	1317.08	1382.30	34.25%	59.19%	+15.91	3-8
1963-12-01	Baltimore Colts	L 20-36	1332.99	1504.22	27.35%	66.12%	-17.65	3-9
1963-12-08	@ New York Giants	L 14-44	1315.34	1663.41	9.29%	84.46%	-8.40	3-10
1963-12-15	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1306.94	1566.10	18.50%	75.06%	-7.99	3-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1963-12-29	New York Giants	W 14-10	1714.10	1691.15	56.84%	43.16%	+12.66	1-0
1963-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-14	1691.15	1714.10	43.16%	56.84%	-12.66	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1963-10-20	15.41%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1361.47	20	Chicago Bears	1658.93	14
2	1963-11-17	15.65%	Los Angeles Rams	1327.25	28	@ Detroit Lions	1571.73	21
3	1963-12-15	19.60%	Dallas Cowboys	1362.61	28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1559.65	24
4	1963-10-13	22.41%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1367.30	17	Detroit Lions	1584.58	14
5	1963-11-24	25.13%	St. Louis Cardinals	1542.64	24	@ New York Giants	1684.07	17
6	1963-11-24	26.41%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1360.14	34	Detroit Lions	1539.73	31
7	1963-09-15	28.22%	Chicago Bears	1555.70	10	@ Green Bay Packers	1669.75	3
8	1963-11-24	29.26%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1359.25	17	Baltimore Colts	1514.17	16
9	1963-09-15	31.69%	Minnesota Vikings	1393.83	24	@ San Francisco 49ers	1479.18	20
10	1963-11-17	32.84%	St. Louis Cardinals	1519.60	20	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1595.81	14
11	1963-09-22	34.13%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1496.68	31	New York Giants	1612.55	0
12	1963-11-24	34.25%	Washington Redskins	1317.08	13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1382.30	10
13	1963-10-20	34.55%	Baltimore Colts	1502.59	25	@ Detroit Lions	1565.49	21
14	1963-10-27	35.73%	New York Giants	1589.02	33	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1642.99	6
15	1963-11-17	36.30%	@ Chicago Bears	1659.45	26	Green Bay Packers	1758.86	7
16	1963-11-10	36.64%	@ Baltimore Colts	1490.13	24	Detroit Lions	1587.02	21
17	1963-12-08	37.78%	@ Detroit Lions	1523.47	38	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1611.91	10
18	1963-10-20	40.23%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1314.60	27	Minnesota Vikings	1385.21	24
19	1963-10-27	41.39%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1328.96	28	San Francisco 49ers	1391.19	21
20	1963-11-10	41.47%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1545.58	9	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1607.27	7
21	1963-10-13	42.35%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1596.52	35	@ New York Giants	1602.23	24
22	1963-09-21	42.39%	Washington Redskins	1381.47	37	@ Los Angeles Rams	1386.88	14
23	1963-09-29	43.18%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1392.62	45	San Francisco 49ers	1442.22	14
24	1963-11-10	43.72%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1344.77	31	Dallas Cowboys	1390.52	24
25	1963-09-29	43.81%	Chicago Bears	1602.82	37	@ Detroit Lions	1598.24	21

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1963-09-22	51.27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1496.68	34.13%	New York Giants	0	1612.55	59.31%
2	1963-10-27	46.59	New York Giants	33	1589.02	35.73%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	6	1642.99	57.71%
3	1963-12-08	45.81	@ Detroit Lions	38	1523.47	37.78%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	10	1611.91	55.66%
4	1963-09-29	43.72	@ Minnesota Vikings	45	1392.62	43.18%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1442.22	50.25%
5	1963-10-06	43.67	St. Louis Cardinals	56	1489.31	50.73%	@ Minnesota Vikings	14	1436.34	42.70%
6	1963-09-14	40.25	St. Louis Cardinals	34	1456.75	43.88%	@ Dallas Cowboys	7	1451.65	49.54%
7	1963-11-17	38.71	@ Chicago Bears	26	1659.45	36.30%	Green Bay Packers	7	1758.86	57.14%
8	1963-09-21	38.21	Washington Redskins	37	1381.47	42.39%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1386.88	51.03%
9	1963-12-15	35.31	Minnesota Vikings	34	1358.23	44.17%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1351.12	49.26%
10	1963-11-17	32.00	Los Angeles Rams	28	1327.25	15.65%	@ Detroit Lions	21	1571.73	77.95%
11	1963-09-29	31.03	Chicago Bears	37	1602.82	43.81%	@ Detroit Lions	21	1598.24	49.62%
12	1963-09-22	29.75	@ Green Bay Packers	31	1642.99	52.38%	Detroit Lions	10	1627.99	41.05%
13	1963-10-20	29.72	@ San Francisco 49ers	20	1361.47	15.41%	Chicago Bears	14	1658.93	78.20%
14	1963-12-01	28.38	Cleveland Browns (1st)	24	1583.54	44.99%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	10	1570.67	48.43%
15	1963-11-24	28.03	St. Louis Cardinals	24	1542.64	25.13%	@ New York Giants	17	1684.07	68.36%
16	1963-10-13	27.43	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1428.96	44.83%	@ Washington Redskins	24	1417.20	48.59%
17	1963-09-15	26.76	Chicago Bears	10	1555.70	28.22%	@ Green Bay Packers	3	1669.75	65.25%
18	1963-10-13	26.44	Cleveland Browns (1st)	35	1596.52	42.35%	@ New York Giants	24	1602.23	51.08%
19	1963-09-29	26.09	New York Giants	37	1561.28	59.40%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1444.73	34.04%
20	1963-11-03	25.84	@ Dallas Cowboys	35	1364.68	51.19%	Washington Redskins	20	1358.17	42.24%
21	1963-11-03	24.95	Detroit Lions	45	1562.07	68.49%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1369.72	25.00%
22	1963-11-03	23.87	New York Giants	38	1635.60	57.09%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	21	1536.59	36.35%
23	1963-10-05	23.33	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	35	1573.19	50.76%	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	1569.73	42.67%
24	1963-11-17	23.04	St. Louis Cardinals	20	1519.60	32.84%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1595.81	60.61%
25	1963-12-15	22.93	Dallas Cowboys	28	1362.61	19.60%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	24	1559.65	73.95%