1953 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Detroit Lions

3rd Title

Last Title: 1952

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1952

Biggest Overachiever

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2.22 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.78 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

2.23 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.73 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	11	1	0	.917	—	348	162	+186	8.78	+2.22
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	4	1	.625	3.5	352	215	+137	6.78	+0.72
3	Washington Redskins	6	5	1	.542	4.5	208	215	-7	5.84	+0.66
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	6	0	.500	5	211	263	-52	5.84	+0.16
5	New York Giants	3	9	0	.250	8	179	277	-98	5.11	-2.11
6	Chicago Cardinals	1	10	1	.125	9.5	190	337	-147	3.73	-2.23

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	10	2	0	.833	—	271	205	+66	8.30	+1.70
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	3	0	.750	1	372	237	+135	7.00	+2.00
3	Los Angeles Rams	8	3	1	.708	1.5	366	236	+130	8.60	-0.10
4	Chicago Bears	3	8	1	.292	6.5	218	262	-44	5.07	-1.57
5	Baltimore Colts	3	9	0	.250	7	182	350	-168	2.49	+0.51
6	Green Bay Packers	2	9	1	.208	7.5	200	338	-138	4.45	-1.95

Playoff Bracket

NFL Championship Game

Detroit Lions 17

Cleveland Browns (1st) 16

Dec 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	1695	11	8.78	+2.22	98.41%	2	6	7	9	10	11	12
Detroit Lions	West	1662	10	8.30	+1.70	95.23%	2	5	7	8	9	10	12
Los Angeles Rams	West	1658	8.5	8.60	-0.10	54.45%	3	6	7	8	9	11	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	1629	9	7.00	+2.00	96.59%	1	4	6	7	8	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	1599	7.5	6.78	+0.72	73.99%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
Washington Redskins	East	1493	6.5	5.84	+0.66	72.22%	0	3	4	6	7	8	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	1475	6	5.84	+0.16	72.16%	0	3	4	6	7	8	12
New York Giants	East	1444	3	5.11	-2.11	21.95%	0	2	4	5	6	8	10
Chicago Bears	West	1398	3.5	5.07	-1.57	20.94%	0	2	4	5	6	7	10
Green Bay Packers	West	1359	2.5	4.45	-1.95	13.96%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Chicago Cardinals	East	1338	1.5	3.73	-2.23	9.34%	0	1	2	3	4	6	10
Baltimore Colts	West	1252	3	2.49	+0.51	85.17%	0	0	1	2	3	4	9

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Chicago Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

East vs. Outside Teams

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Chicago Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	—

Within West

Team	Colts	Bears	Lions	Packers	Rams	49ers
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

West vs. Outside Teams

Team	Cardinals	(1st)	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Redskins
Baltimore Colts	—	—	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Rams	0-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—
San Francisco 49ers	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	1.39%	—	1.39%	—	0.69%	0.69%	4.17%
7–13	1.39%	4.17%	4.86%	4.17%	0.69%	2.08%	—	17.36%
14–20	—	4.86%	4.17%	6.25%	4.86%	1.39%	3.47%	25.00%
21–27	1.39%	4.17%	6.25%	11.11%	1.39%	3.47%	0.69%	28.47%
28–34	—	0.69%	4.86%	1.39%	2.78%	1.39%	—	11.11%
35–41	0.69%	2.08%	1.39%	3.47%	1.39%	—	—	9.03%
42+	0.69%	—	3.47%	0.69%	—	—	—	4.86%
Total	4.17%	17.36%	25.00%	28.47%	11.11%	9.03%	4.86%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.51	21.51	+0.00
SD	11.23	11.23	17.11
CV	0.52	0.52	—
Max	62	62	+48
Min	0	0	-48

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	16.67%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	—	25.00%	25.00%	100%

Baltimore Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.17	29.17	-14.00
SD	6.81	13.24	15.79
CV	0.45	0.45	—
Max	27	45	+10
Min	2	9	-43

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
14–20	—	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	—	16.67%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.17	21.83	-3.67
SD	6.75	8.10	5.55
CV	0.37	0.37	—
Max	28	38	+4
Min	7	13	-14

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
28–34	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	8.33%	58.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Chicago Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.83	28.08	-12.25
SD	8.08	10.32	14.16
CV	0.51	0.37	—
Max	28	56	+7
Min	0	17	-39

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
21–27	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	50.00%
28–34	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	100%

Cleveland Browns (1st) — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.00	13.50	+15.50
SD	12.79	11.30	15.66
CV	0.44	0.84	—
Max	62	42	+48
Min	7	0	-15

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.58	17.08	+5.50
SD	7.98	9.45	9.76
CV	0.35	0.55	—
Max	38	37	+19
Min	13	7	-13

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	—	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	41.67%
21–27	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.67	28.17	-11.50
SD	10.76	10.57	16.90
CV	0.65	0.38	—
Max	37	48	+23
Min	0	14	-34

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
28–34	—	—	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
42+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	8.33%	16.67%	25.00%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.50	19.67	+10.83
SD	7.96	8.82	12.85
CV	0.26	0.45	—
Max	45	31	+43
Min	21	2	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
14–20	—	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	14.92	23.08	-8.17
SD	9.71	14.52	16.03
CV	0.65	0.63	—
Max	37	62	+14
Min	0	7	-48

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
35–41	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
42+	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
Total	8.33%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.33	17.92	+11.42
SD	15.17	12.61	21.35
CV	0.52	0.70	—
Max	56	37	+39
Min	0	0	-24

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
14–20	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
21–27	—	—	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.58	21.92	-4.33
SD	8.27	9.60	13.28
CV	0.47	0.44	—
Max	31	38	+17
Min	7	10	-28

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
14–20	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21–27	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	25.00%
28–34	—	—	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
35–41	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
42+	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	8.33%	33.33%	41.67%	16.67%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	31.00	19.75	+11.25
SD	10.77	7.09	13.76
CV	0.35	0.36	—
Max	48	30	+34
Min	10	7	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
7–13	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
14–20	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
21–27	—	8.33%	—	25.00%	—	—	—	33.33%
28–34	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	25.00%	16.67%	41.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Washington Redskins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.33	17.92	-0.58
SD	7.19	9.21	11.16
CV	0.41	0.51	—
Max	28	30	+11
Min	3	0	-24

Games Played: 12

Actual Wins vs. Point Differential

Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	8.78	+2.22
2	San Francisco 49ers	9	7.00	+2.00
3	Detroit Lions	10	8.30	+1.70
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7.5	6.78	+0.72
5	Washington Redskins	6.5	5.84	+0.66

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Cardinals	1.5	3.73	-2.23
2	New York Giants	3	5.11	-2.11
3	Green Bay Packers	2.5	4.45	-1.95
4	Chicago Bears	3.5	5.07	-1.57
5	Los Angeles Rams	8.5	8.60	-0.10

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cleveland Browns (1st)	11	Sep 27 – Dec 6	1 in 46
2	Philadelphia Eagles	6	Oct 17 – Nov 21	1 in 20
3	Washington Redskins	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 18
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 9
5	Detroit Lions	6	Nov 7 – Dec 13	1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Cardinals	7	Sep 27 – Nov 8	1 in 39
2	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 11 – Nov 1	1 in 14
3	Philadelphia Eagles	2	Nov 29 – Dec 6	1 in 10
4	Washington Redskins	3	Oct 18 – Nov 1	1 in 8
5	New York Giants	3	Sep 27 – Oct 11	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	19.07%	7.57%	3.13%	1.24%	0.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	31.60%	24.13%	16.26%	9.44%	3.32%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	19.05%	23.29%	23.78%	17.49%	9.47%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	18.46%	23.06%	22.66%	19.57%	10.39%
New York Giants	2.88%	9.68%	16.48%	22.40%	28.09%	20.47%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	2.14%	5.47%	11.77%	24.17%	56.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	32.29%	14.48%	4.11%	0.89%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	35.92%	18.59%	6.08%	1.49%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	23.19%	38.76%	18.47%	6.83%	0.90%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	5.83%	17.04%	37.82%	29.46%	8.40%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	2.66%	10.30%	27.85%	42.07%	16.47%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	0.11%	0.83%	5.67%	19.26%	74.07%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Cleveland Browns (1st)	32.33%	29.71%	14.02%	9.88%	5.63%	3.91%	2.09%	1.23%	0.74%	0.34%	0.08%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	29.72%	22.40%	19.22%	12.36%	7.27%	4.42%	2.29%	1.42%	0.47%	0.31%	0.11%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	22.19%	20.47%	20.71%	13.76%	9.44%	6.16%	3.30%	2.31%	0.92%	0.57%	0.14%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	6.35%	8.13%	13.81%	13.99%	18.22%	13.76%	10.18%	7.27%	4.20%	2.97%	0.81%	0.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.64%	8.84%	12.16%	15.97%	14.62%	13.35%	10.88%	8.09%	5.79%	3.48%	1.80%	0.38%
Washington Redskins	1.66%	3.63%	6.21%	10.58%	11.35%	14.42%	13.90%	12.36%	10.15%	7.88%	5.62%	2.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.55%	3.44%	6.09%	10.26%	11.60%	13.43%	13.78%	12.00%	11.34%	8.33%	6.12%	2.06%
New York Giants	0.66%	1.76%	3.30%	5.43%	7.50%	9.90%	12.67%	13.45%	15.51%	13.02%	11.83%	4.97%
Chicago Bears	0.48%	1.04%	2.80%	4.26%	7.64%	10.00%	13.55%	17.21%	15.02%	14.69%	8.31%	5.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.35%	0.36%	1.19%	2.33%	4.34%	6.25%	10.29%	13.42%	17.03%	20.97%	12.99%	10.48%
Chicago Cardinals	0.05%	0.18%	0.46%	1.08%	2.02%	3.86%	5.81%	8.25%	13.62%	16.29%	29.17%	19.21%
Baltimore Colts	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.10%	0.37%	0.54%	1.26%	2.99%	5.21%	11.15%	23.02%	55.27%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	31.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	84.75%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	93.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	94.14%
New York Giants	2.88%	97.12%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	99.62%

Team	1 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	51.84%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	62.17%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	88.15%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	98.55%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	99.35%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	99.94%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Made Playoffs	Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st)	68.71%	35.30%
Los Angeles Rams	48.16%	26.51%
Detroit Lions	37.83%	21.62%
San Francisco 49ers	11.85%	6.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.25%	5.88%
Washington Redskins	6.92%	1.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.86%	1.46%
New York Giants	2.88%	0.52%
Chicago Bears	1.45%	0.37%
Green Bay Packers	0.65%	0.13%
Chicago Cardinals	0.38%	0.04%
Baltimore Colts	0.06%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Chicago Cardinals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears				0.21%					0.08%	0.08%
Chicago Cardinals					0.02%		0.01%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%	0.81%			12.79%	0.31%	16.94%				4.42%
Detroit Lions			0.11%	13.38%				0.88%	3.98%	1.30%		1.97%
Green Bay Packers				0.04%				0.02%	0.03%	0.01%		0.03%
Los Angeles Rams			0.12%	16.50%				1.06%	4.28%	2.24%		2.31%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.02%			0.10%	0.01%	0.28%				0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.21%			2.15%	0.11%	2.79%				0.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.03%			0.38%	0.03%	0.75%				0.27%
San Francisco 49ers			0.11%	3.28%				0.40%	1.00%	0.77%		0.63%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.01%			0.77%	0.06%	0.88%				0.25%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.

Team	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	50.09%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	49.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns (1st)		49.91%
Detroit Lions	50.09%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Detroit Lions 50.09% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.09%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 49.91% chance to win

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.91%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1275.00	1456.54	27.78%	67.06%	+18.70	1-0
1953-10-03	Detroit Lions	L 17-27	1293.70	1630.95	13.57%	81.36%	-6.27	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-14	1287.43	1452.43	22.26%	72.60%	+14.33	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-37	1301.76	1404.82	29.03%	65.80%	-20.01	2-2
1953-10-25	Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1281.75	1481.94	25.67%	69.17%	+30.50	3-2
1953-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 24-35	1312.25	1405.76	38.98%	55.83%	-18.37	3-3
1953-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-17	1293.88	1610.79	10.68%	84.29%	-4.95	3-4
1953-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-45	1288.93	1595.10	11.28%	83.67%	-9.20	3-5
1953-11-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-21	1279.73	1656.21	11.13%	83.82%	-4.61	3-6
1953-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-38	1275.12	1598.97	14.50%	80.42%	-8.73	3-7
1953-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 2-45	1266.39	1642.86	7.83%	87.19%	-7.53	3-8
1953-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-45	1258.86	1621.87	8.40%	86.61%	-6.87	3-9
1953-09-27	@ Baltimore Colts	L 9-13	1456.54	1275.00	67.06%	27.78%	-18.70	0-1
1953-10-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1437.84	1436.30	42.78%	52.02%	+14.59	1-1
1953-10-11	Baltimore Colts	L 14-16	1452.43	1287.43	72.60%	22.26%	-14.33	1-2
1953-10-18	San Francisco 49ers	L 28-35	1438.10	1549.22	36.60%	58.22%	-13.79	1-3
1953-10-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-38	1424.31	1648.07	16.95%	77.94%	-9.24	1-4
1953-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-24	1415.07	1550.49	25.34%	69.50%	-11.57	1-5
1953-11-08	Green Bay Packers	T 21-21	1403.50	1424.14	49.30%	45.50%	-0.12	1-5
1953-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1403.38	1454.01	35.62%	59.19%	+14.32	2-5
1953-11-22	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1417.70	1625.90	24.80%	70.04%	-7.17	2-6
1953-11-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-21	1410.53	1660.82	20.56%	74.30%	+17.96	3-6
1953-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1428.49	1642.90	17.73%	77.16%	-6.32	3-7
1953-12-13	Chicago Cardinals	L 17-24	1422.17	1313.53	66.46%	28.37%	-24.52	3-8
1953-09-27	Washington Redskins	L 13-24	1460.67	1463.77	51.80%	43.00%	-24.10	0-1
1953-10-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-27	1436.57	1608.29	28.93%	65.90%	-18.59	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-31	1417.98	1522.33	28.88%	65.95%	-7.19	0-3
1953-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 7-21	1410.79	1479.22	33.31%	61.51%	-17.83	0-4
1953-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-56	1392.96	1503.28	36.70%	58.11%	-32.66	0-5
1953-11-01	New York Giants	L 20-23	1360.30	1485.81	34.69%	60.12%	-8.58	0-6
1953-11-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-28	1351.72	1439.31	30.90%	63.92%	-14.70	0-7
1953-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	T 24-24	1337.02	1658.47	14.67%	80.24%	+2.27	0-7
1953-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-38	1339.29	1604.30	13.87%	81.05%	-12.49	0-8
1953-11-29	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-27	1326.80	1710.71	7.52%	87.51%	-3.67	0-9
1953-12-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-21	1323.13	1457.29	33.57%	61.25%	-9.60	0-10
1953-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1313.53	1422.17	28.37%	66.46%	+24.53	1-10
1953-09-27	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-0	1581.97	1462.62	59.31%	35.50%	+26.32	1-0
1953-10-04	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 27-7	1608.29	1436.57	65.90%	28.93%	+18.59	2-0
1953-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-13	1626.88	1493.03	69.32%	25.52%	+18.04	3-0
1953-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-14	1644.92	1500.42	62.56%	32.25%	+18.47	4-0
1953-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 7-0	1663.39	1497.04	65.26%	29.57%	+11.24	5-0
1953-11-01	Washington Redskins	W 27-3	1674.63	1451.44	77.89%	17.00%	+12.13	6-0
1953-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-16	1686.76	1483.13	76.23%	18.65%	+11.50	7-0
1953-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-21	1698.26	1580.80	67.48%	27.35%	+5.57	8-0
1953-11-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-16	1703.83	1486.30	71.03%	23.81%	+6.88	9-0
1953-11-29	Chicago Cardinals	W 27-16	1710.71	1326.80	87.51%	7.52%	+3.67	10-0
1953-12-06	New York Giants	W 62-14	1714.38	1472.06	79.40%	15.50%	+15.66	11-0
1953-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-42	1730.04	1563.29	65.31%	29.52%	-35.28	11-1
1953-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-21	1613.00	1520.73	64.50%	30.33%	+17.95	1-0
1953-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-17	1630.95	1293.70	81.36%	13.57%	+6.27	2-0
1953-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1637.22	1557.12	62.99%	31.83%	+7.90	3-0
1953-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-31	1645.12	1621.13	55.59%	39.22%	-26.94	3-1
1953-10-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-10	1618.18	1563.02	50.45%	44.36%	+12.53	4-1
1953-11-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-37	1630.71	1657.30	38.86%	55.94%	-19.92	4-2
1953-11-07	Baltimore Colts	W 17-7	1610.79	1293.88	84.29%	10.68%	+4.95	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 14-7	1615.74	1424.26	68.19%	26.64%	+10.16	6-2
1953-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-16	1625.90	1417.70	70.04%	24.80%	+7.16	7-2
1953-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 34-15	1633.06	1390.37	79.43%	15.48%	+9.84	8-2
1953-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1642.90	1428.49	77.16%	17.73%	+6.32	9-2
1953-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 27-16	1649.22	1456.39	68.35%	26.49%	+12.66	10-2
1953-09-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-27	1462.62	1581.97	35.50%	59.31%	-26.32	0-1
1953-10-04	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1436.30	1437.84	52.02%	42.78%	-14.59	0-2
1953-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-38	1421.71	1604.23	27.66%	67.17%	-16.89	0-3
1953-10-18	Baltimore Colts	W 37-14	1404.82	1301.76	65.80%	29.03%	+20.01	1-3
1953-10-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-31	1424.83	1501.23	32.29%	62.53%	-19.07	1-4
1953-10-31	@ Baltimore Colts	W 35-24	1405.76	1312.25	55.83%	38.98%	+18.38	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	T 21-21	1424.14	1403.50	45.50%	49.30%	+0.12	2-4
1953-11-15	Detroit Lions	L 7-14	1424.26	1615.74	26.64%	68.19%	-10.16	2-5
1953-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-37	1414.10	1575.23	30.20%	64.63%	-23.73	2-6
1953-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 15-34	1390.37	1633.06	15.48%	79.43%	-9.84	2-7
1953-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-48	1380.53	1607.70	16.68%	78.21%	-14.17	2-8
1953-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-33	1366.36	1650.40	12.62%	82.32%	-7.38	2-9
1953-09-27	New York Giants	W 21-7	1593.34	1529.03	60.98%	33.84%	+18.10	1-0
1953-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 30-31	1611.44	1549.92	51.35%	43.45%	-7.21	1-1
1953-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-20	1604.23	1421.71	67.17%	27.66%	+16.90	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-19	1621.13	1645.12	39.22%	55.59%	+26.94	3-1
1953-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 38-24	1648.07	1424.31	77.94%	16.95%	+9.23	4-1
1953-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 37-24	1657.30	1630.71	55.94%	38.86%	+19.92	5-1
1953-11-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-31	1677.22	1562.05	67.22%	27.61%	-18.75	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Chicago Cardinals	T 24-24	1658.47	1337.02	80.24%	14.67%	-2.26	5-2
1953-11-22	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-13	1656.21	1279.73	83.82%	11.13%	+4.61	6-2
1953-11-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1660.82	1410.53	74.30%	20.56%	-17.96	6-3
1953-12-05	Baltimore Colts	W 45-2	1642.86	1266.39	87.19%	7.83%	+7.54	7-3
1953-12-12	Green Bay Packers	W 33-17	1650.40	1366.36	82.32%	12.62%	+7.38	8-3
1953-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-21	1529.03	1593.34	33.84%	60.98%	-18.10	0-1
1953-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1510.93	1502.78	43.72%	51.08%	-19.54	0-2
1953-10-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1491.39	1488.25	43.01%	51.80%	-12.17	0-3
1953-10-18	Chicago Cardinals	W 21-7	1479.22	1410.79	61.51%	33.31%	+17.82	1-3
1953-10-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 0-7	1497.04	1663.39	29.57%	65.26%	-11.23	1-4
1953-11-01	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 23-20	1485.81	1360.30	60.12%	34.69%	+8.58	2-4
1953-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-30	1494.39	1573.12	32.00%	62.82%	-21.99	2-5
1953-11-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-14	1472.40	1471.63	52.35%	42.46%	-14.67	2-6
1953-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1457.73	1439.69	54.76%	40.04%	-13.28	2-7
1953-11-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-28	1444.45	1616.79	28.85%	65.98%	+27.61	3-7
1953-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-62	1472.06	1714.38	15.50%	79.40%	-15.67	3-8
1953-12-13	Detroit Lions	L 16-27	1456.39	1649.22	26.49%	68.35%	-12.66	3-9
1953-09-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1511.22	1532.11	39.65%	55.16%	-17.81	0-1
1953-10-02	Washington Redskins	T 21-21	1493.41	1487.87	53.02%	41.79%	-0.38	0-1
1953-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-37	1493.03	1626.88	25.52%	69.32%	-18.03	0-2
1953-10-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-7	1475.00	1529.52	44.45%	50.36%	+28.28	1-2
1953-10-25	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 56-17	1503.28	1392.96	58.11%	36.70%	+32.66	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1535.94	1520.30	44.79%	50.02%	+37.18	3-2
1953-11-08	New York Giants	W 30-7	1573.12	1494.39	62.82%	32.00%	+21.98	4-2
1953-11-15	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1595.10	1288.93	83.67%	11.28%	+9.20	5-2
1953-11-21	Chicago Cardinals	W 38-0	1604.30	1339.29	81.05%	13.87%	+12.49	6-2
1953-11-29	@ New York Giants	L 28-37	1616.79	1444.45	65.98%	28.85%	-27.61	6-3
1953-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-10	1589.18	1475.09	58.61%	36.20%	-25.89	6-4
1953-12-13	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 42-27	1563.29	1730.04	29.52%	65.31%	+35.28	7-4
1953-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-38	1520.73	1613.00	30.33%	64.50%	-17.95	0-1
1953-10-03	New York Giants	W 24-14	1502.78	1510.93	51.08%	43.72%	+19.55	1-1
1953-10-11	Chicago Cardinals	W 31-28	1522.33	1417.98	65.95%	28.88%	+7.19	2-1
1953-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-23	1529.52	1475.00	50.36%	44.45%	-28.29	2-2
1953-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 31-14	1501.23	1424.83	62.53%	32.29%	+19.07	3-2
1953-11-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-35	1520.30	1535.94	50.02%	44.79%	-37.17	3-3
1953-11-08	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-34	1483.13	1686.76	18.65%	76.23%	-11.50	3-4
1953-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 14-10	1471.63	1472.40	42.46%	52.35%	+14.67	4-4
1953-11-22	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-20	1486.30	1703.83	23.81%	71.03%	-6.88	4-5
1953-11-29	Washington Redskins	L 9-17	1479.42	1452.96	55.93%	38.88%	-22.13	4-6
1953-12-06	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 21-17	1457.29	1323.13	61.25%	33.57%	+9.60	5-6
1953-12-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-13	1466.89	1500.99	37.84%	56.97%	+7.97	6-6
1953-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-21	1532.11	1511.22	55.16%	39.65%	+17.81	1-0
1953-10-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-30	1549.92	1611.44	43.45%	51.35%	+7.20	2-0
1953-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-24	1557.12	1637.22	31.83%	62.99%	-7.90	2-1
1953-10-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-28	1549.22	1438.10	58.22%	36.60%	+13.80	3-1
1953-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1563.02	1618.18	44.36%	50.45%	-12.53	3-2
1953-11-01	Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1550.49	1415.07	69.50%	25.34%	+11.56	4-2
1953-11-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-27	1562.05	1677.22	27.61%	67.22%	+18.75	5-2
1953-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-23	1580.80	1698.26	27.35%	67.48%	-5.57	5-3
1953-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-7	1575.23	1414.10	64.63%	30.20%	+23.74	6-3
1953-11-29	@ Baltimore Colts	W 38-21	1598.97	1275.12	80.42%	14.50%	+8.73	7-3
1953-12-06	Green Bay Packers	W 48-14	1607.70	1380.53	78.21%	16.68%	+14.17	8-3
1953-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 45-14	1621.87	1258.86	86.61%	8.40%	+6.87	9-3
1953-09-27	@ Chicago Cardinals	W 24-13	1463.77	1460.67	43.00%	51.80%	+24.10	1-0
1953-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 21-21	1487.87	1493.41	41.79%	53.02%	+0.38	1-0
1953-10-11	New York Giants	W 13-9	1488.25	1491.39	51.80%	43.01%	+12.17	2-0
1953-10-18	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-30	1500.42	1644.92	32.25%	62.56%	-18.48	2-1
1953-10-25	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-27	1481.94	1281.75	69.17%	25.67%	-30.50	2-2
1953-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-27	1451.44	1674.63	17.00%	77.89%	-12.13	2-3
1953-11-08	Chicago Cardinals	W 28-17	1439.31	1351.72	63.92%	30.90%	+14.70	3-3
1953-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1454.01	1403.38	59.19%	35.62%	-14.32	3-4
1953-11-22	@ New York Giants	W 24-21	1439.69	1457.73	40.04%	54.76%	+13.27	4-4
1953-11-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-9	1452.96	1479.42	38.88%	55.93%	+22.13	5-4
1953-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 10-0	1475.09	1589.18	36.20%	58.61%	+25.90	6-4
1953-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-14	1500.99	1466.89	56.97%	37.84%	-7.97	6-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1953-12-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-17	1694.76	1661.88	49.85%	50.15%	-6.65	0-1
1953-12-27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 17-16	1661.88	1694.76	50.15%	49.85%	+6.65	1-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1953-11-29	20.56%	@ Chicago Bears	1410.53	24	Los Angeles Rams	1660.82	21
2	1953-10-11	22.26%	Baltimore Colts	1287.43	16	@ Chicago Bears	1452.43	14
3	1953-10-25	25.67%	@ Baltimore Colts	1281.75	27	Washington Redskins	1481.94	17
4	1953-11-08	27.61%	San Francisco 49ers	1562.05	31	@ Los Angeles Rams	1677.22	27
5	1953-09-27	27.78%	@ Baltimore Colts	1275.00	13	Chicago Bears	1456.54	9
6	1953-12-13	28.37%	Chicago Cardinals	1313.53	24	@ Chicago Bears	1422.17	17
7	1953-11-29	28.85%	@ New York Giants	1444.45	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1616.79	28
8	1953-12-13	29.52%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1563.29	42	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1730.04	27
9	1953-11-15	35.62%	Chicago Bears	1403.38	27	@ Washington Redskins	1454.01	24
10	1953-12-06	36.20%	@ Washington Redskins	1475.09	10	Philadelphia Eagles	1589.18	0
11	1953-12-13	37.84%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1466.89	14	@ Washington Redskins	1500.99	13
12	1953-11-29	38.88%	Washington Redskins	1452.96	17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1479.42	9
13	1953-10-18	39.22%	Los Angeles Rams	1621.13	31	@ Detroit Lions	1645.12	19
14	1953-11-22	40.04%	Washington Redskins	1439.69	24	@ New York Giants	1457.73	21
15	1953-11-15	42.46%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1471.63	14	@ New York Giants	1472.40	10
16	1953-10-04	42.78%	Chicago Bears	1437.84	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1436.30	13
17	1953-09-27	43.00%	Washington Redskins	1463.77	24	@ Chicago Cardinals	1460.67	13
18	1953-10-04	43.45%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1549.92	31	Los Angeles Rams	1611.44	30
19	1953-10-17	44.45%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1475.00	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1529.52	7
20	1953-11-01	44.79%	Philadelphia Eagles	1535.94	35	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1520.30	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1953-11-01	37.18	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1535.94	44.79%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1520.30	50.02%
2	1953-12-13	35.28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	42	1563.29	29.52%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1730.04	65.31%
3	1953-10-25	32.66	Philadelphia Eagles	56	1503.28	58.11%	@ Chicago Cardinals	17	1392.96	36.70%
4	1953-10-25	30.50	@ Baltimore Colts	27	1281.75	25.67%	Washington Redskins	17	1481.94	69.17%
5	1953-10-17	28.29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	23	1475.00	44.45%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1529.52	50.36%
6	1953-11-29	27.61	@ New York Giants	37	1444.45	28.85%	Philadelphia Eagles	28	1616.79	65.98%
7	1953-10-18	26.94	Los Angeles Rams	31	1621.13	39.22%	@ Detroit Lions	19	1645.12	55.59%
8	1953-09-27	26.32	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1581.97	59.31%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1462.62	35.50%
9	1953-12-06	25.90	@ Washington Redskins	10	1475.09	36.20%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1589.18	58.61%
10	1953-12-13	24.53	Chicago Cardinals	24	1313.53	28.37%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1422.17	66.46%
11	1953-09-27	24.10	Washington Redskins	24	1463.77	43.00%	@ Chicago Cardinals	13	1460.67	51.80%
12	1953-11-22	23.74	San Francisco 49ers	37	1575.23	64.63%	@ Green Bay Packers	7	1414.10	30.20%
13	1953-11-29	22.13	Washington Redskins	17	1452.96	38.88%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1479.42	55.93%
14	1953-11-08	21.99	@ Philadelphia Eagles	30	1573.12	62.82%	New York Giants	7	1494.39	32.00%
15	1953-10-18	20.01	@ Green Bay Packers	37	1404.82	65.80%	Baltimore Colts	14	1301.76	29.03%
16	1953-11-01	19.92	@ Los Angeles Rams	37	1657.30	55.94%	Detroit Lions	24	1630.71	38.86%
17	1953-10-03	19.55	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1502.78	51.08%	New York Giants	14	1510.93	43.72%
18	1953-10-24	19.07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	31	1501.23	62.53%	Green Bay Packers	14	1424.83	32.29%
19	1953-11-08	18.75	San Francisco 49ers	31	1562.05	27.61%	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1677.22	67.22%
20	1953-09-27	18.70	@ Baltimore Colts	13	1275.00	27.78%	Chicago Bears	9	1456.54	67.06%
21	1953-10-04	18.59	Cleveland Browns (1st)	27	1608.29	65.90%	@ Chicago Cardinals	7	1436.57	28.93%
22	1953-10-18	18.48	Cleveland Browns (1st)	30	1644.92	62.56%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1500.42	32.25%
23	1953-10-31	18.38	Green Bay Packers	35	1405.76	55.83%	@ Baltimore Colts	24	1312.25	38.98%
24	1953-09-27	18.10	@ Los Angeles Rams	21	1593.34	60.98%	New York Giants	7	1529.03	33.84%
25	1953-10-10	18.04	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	37	1626.88	69.32%	Philadelphia Eagles	13	1493.03	25.52%