1969 AFL Season
70 regular-season games · 4 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Kansas City Chiefs
3rd Title
Last Title: 1966
Runner-Up
Oakland Raiders
3rd Appearance
Last Appearance: 1968
Biggest Overachiever
Oakland Raiders
2.75 wins above expected
12 wins · 9.75 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Miami Dolphins
1.92 wins below expected
3 wins · 5.42 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Jets Division | 10 | 4 | 0 | .714 | — | 353 | 269 | +84 | 9.13 | +0.87 |
| 2 | Houston Oilers Playoffs | 6 | 6 | 2 | .500 | 3 | 278 | 279 | -1 | 7.92 | -0.92 |
| 3 | Boston Patriots | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 6 | 266 | 316 | -50 | 5.15 | -1.15 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 6 | 230 | 359 | -129 | 5.42 | -1.42 |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 10 | 1 | .250 | 6.5 | 233 | 332 | -99 | 5.42 | -1.92 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakland Raiders Division | 12 | 1 | 1 | .893 | — | 377 | 242 | +135 | 9.75 | +2.75 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | 1.5 | 359 | 177 | +182 | 9.66 | +1.34 |
| 3 | San Diego Chargers | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 4.5 | 288 | 276 | +12 | 7.52 | +0.48 |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 8 | 1 | .393 | 7 | 297 | 344 | -47 | 5.74 | -0.24 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 9 | 1 | .321 | 8 | 280 | 367 | -87 | 4.28 | +0.22 |
Playoff Bracket
AFL Playoffs
Divisional Round
AFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | West | 1688 | 12.5 | 9.75 | +2.75 | 99.75% | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | West | 1675 | 11 | 9.66 | +1.34 | 90.60% | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | |
| New York Jets | East | 1606 | 10 | 9.13 | +0.87 | 83.36% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| San Diego Chargers | West | 1541 | 8 | 7.52 | +0.48 | 76.78% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Houston Oilers | East | 1518 | 7 | 7.92 | -0.92 | 69.31% | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | |
| Denver Broncos | West | 1434 | 5.5 | 5.74 | -0.24 | 73.66% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Boston Patriots | East | 1420 | 4 | 5.15 | -1.15 | 42.79% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| Buffalo Bills | East | 1395 | 4 | 5.42 | -1.42 | 36.17% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | |
| Miami Dolphins | East | 1374 | 3.5 | 5.42 | -1.92 | 36.24% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | West | 1349 | 4.5 | 4.28 | +0.22 | 83.55% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within East
| Team | Patriots | Bills | Oilers | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Patriots | — |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bills |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Houston Oilers |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Miami Dolphins |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| New York Jets |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bengals | Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Patriots |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bills |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Houston Oilers |
0-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Miami Dolphins |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| New York Jets |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
Within West
| Team | Bengals | Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | — |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Denver Broncos |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Oakland Raiders |
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Patriots | Bills | Oilers | Dolphins | Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Denver Broncos |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Oakland Raiders |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 1.43% | 1.43% | 2.86% | 1.43% | — | 0.71% | 7.86% |
| 7–13 | 1.43% | 1.43% | 1.43% | 4.29% | 1.43% | 2.14% | — | 12.14% |
| 14–20 | 1.43% | 1.43% | 5.71% | 11.43% | 5.00% | 0.71% | — | 25.71% |
| 21–27 | 2.86% | 4.29% | 11.43% | 7.14% | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.14% | 32.14% |
| 28–34 | 1.43% | 1.43% | 5.00% | 2.14% | 2.86% | 0.71% | — | 13.57% |
| 35–41 | — | 2.14% | 0.71% | 2.14% | 0.71% | — | — | 5.71% |
| 42+ | 0.71% | — | — | 2.14% | — | — | — | 2.86% |
| Total | 7.86% | 12.14% | 25.71% | 32.14% | 13.57% | 5.71% | 2.86% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.15 | 21.15 | +0.00 |
| SD | 10.04 | 10.04 | 15.39 |
| CV | 0.47 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 50 | 50 | +39 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -39 |
Games Played: 70
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 42.86% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | 100% |
Boston Patriots — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.00 | 22.57 | -3.57 |
| SD | 10.17 | 9.69 | 15.69 |
| CV | 0.54 | 0.43 | — |
| Max | 38 | 38 | +24 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -31 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 28.57% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 100% |
Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 16.43 | 25.64 | -9.21 |
| SD | 10.52 | 12.65 | 16.93 |
| CV | 0.64 | 0.49 | — |
| Max | 41 | 50 | +25 |
| Min | 3 | 3 | -39 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 21.43% | — | 7.14% | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 28.57% | 35.71% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 100% |
Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.00 | 26.21 | -6.21 |
| SD | 8.77 | 8.58 | 13.43 |
| CV | 0.44 | 0.33 | — |
| Max | 34 | 42 | +14 |
| Min | 7 | 16 | -33 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 35.71% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 35.71% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 100% |
Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.21 | 24.57 | -3.36 |
| SD | 7.31 | 12.55 | 15.25 |
| CV | 0.34 | 0.51 | — |
| Max | 35 | 45 | +28 |
| Min | 10 | 0 | -31 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 21.43% | — | — | — | 35.71% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 50.00% | 14.29% | — | — | 100% |
Houston Oilers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.86 | 19.93 | -0.07 |
| SD | 9.88 | 8.73 | 13.91 |
| CV | 0.50 | 0.44 | — |
| Max | 32 | 34 | +25 |
| Min | 0 | 3 | -24 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 21.43% | 35.71% | 21.43% | 21.43% | — | — | — | 100% |
Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 25.64 | 12.64 | +13.00 |
| SD | 8.47 | 8.62 | 11.61 |
| CV | 0.33 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 42 | 27 | +31 |
| Min | 6 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | 28.57% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | — | 28.57% | 35.71% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | 100% |
Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 16.64 | 23.71 | -7.07 |
| SD | 8.19 | 8.20 | 11.53 |
| CV | 0.49 | 0.35 | — |
| Max | 31 | 38 | +18 |
| Min | 3 | 6 | -25 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | 14.29% | 21.43% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 21.43% | 28.57% | 21.43% | 21.43% | — | — | 100% |
New York Jets — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 25.21 | 19.21 | +6.00 |
| SD | 7.86 | 10.00 | 13.06 |
| CV | 0.31 | 0.52 | — |
| Max | 40 | 34 | +33 |
| Min | 14 | 6 | -18 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | 28.57% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 14.29% | 50.00% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Oakland Raiders — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 26.93 | 17.29 | +9.64 |
| SD | 10.82 | 6.32 | 11.80 |
| CV | 0.40 | 0.37 | — |
| Max | 50 | 31 | +31 |
| Min | 10 | 6 | -14 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 14–20 | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| Total | 7.14% | 14.29% | 28.57% | 42.86% | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
San Diego Chargers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 20.57 | 19.71 | +0.86 |
| SD | 13.72 | 7.87 | 16.77 |
| CV | 0.67 | 0.40 | — |
| Max | 45 | 34 | +39 |
| Min | 0 | 6 | -24 |
Games Played: 14
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | 12.5 | 9.75 | +2.75 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 9.66 | +1.34 |
| 3 | New York Jets | 10 | 9.13 | +0.87 |
| 4 | San Diego Chargers | 8 | 7.52 | +0.48 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.5 | 4.28 | +0.22 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | 5.42 | -1.92 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 4 | 5.42 | -1.42 |
| 3 | Boston Patriots | 4 | 5.15 | -1.15 |
| 4 | Houston Oilers | 7 | 7.92 | -0.92 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 5.5 | 5.74 | -0.24 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | 6 | Nov 9 – Dec 13 | 1 in 21 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | Sep 14 – Sep 28 | 1 in 21 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | Oct 5 – Nov 16 | 1 in 15 |
| 4 | Boston Patriots | 3 | Nov 16 – Nov 30 | 1 in 13 |
| 5 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | Sep 28 – Oct 19 | 1 in 9 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Patriots | 7 | Sep 14 – Oct 26 | 1 in 20 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | Nov 16 – Dec 14 | 1 in 8 |
| 3 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | Oct 26 – Nov 16 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 3 | Sep 28 – Oct 12 | 1 in 5 |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders | 1 | Nov 2 – Nov 2 | 1 in 5 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 63.06% | 25.32% | 7.98% | 2.85% | 0.79% |
| Houston Oilers | 28.77% | 42.13% | 17.54% | 8.08% | 3.48% |
| Buffalo Bills | 2.91% | 11.61% | 25.90% | 30.14% | 29.44% |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.05% | 11.33% | 25.80% | 30.40% | 29.42% |
| Boston Patriots | 2.21% | 9.61% | 22.78% | 28.53% | 36.87% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 46.76% | 36.09% | 13.99% | 2.88% | 0.28% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 43.64% | 37.88% | 14.77% | 3.27% | 0.44% |
| San Diego Chargers | 8.18% | 20.26% | 45.21% | 20.48% | 5.87% |
| Denver Broncos | 1.29% | 4.91% | 19.63% | 48.65% | 25.52% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.13% | 0.86% | 6.40% | 24.72% | 67.89% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 34.18% | 25.47% | 18.46% | 11.43% | 5.91% | 2.63% | 1.23% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 31.66% | 25.46% | 19.06% | 11.80% | 6.68% | 3.30% | 1.15% | 0.59% | 0.26% | 0.04% |
| New York Jets | 21.16% | 23.36% | 20.12% | 14.63% | 9.94% | 5.40% | 3.09% | 1.42% | 0.64% | 0.24% |
| Houston Oilers | 6.40% | 11.68% | 17.36% | 20.19% | 17.00% | 11.67% | 7.11% | 4.66% | 2.69% | 1.24% |
| San Diego Chargers | 5.14% | 8.91% | 13.32% | 17.92% | 18.80% | 14.38% | 9.65% | 6.45% | 3.53% | 1.90% |
| Denver Broncos | 0.56% | 1.77% | 3.62% | 7.33% | 11.13% | 15.15% | 18.12% | 16.29% | 15.09% | 10.94% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.28% | 1.06% | 2.63% | 5.23% | 9.25% | 14.54% | 16.65% | 18.70% | 17.77% | 13.89% |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.27% | 1.16% | 2.62% | 5.39% | 9.72% | 13.79% | 17.40% | 17.39% | 17.08% | 15.18% |
| Boston Patriots | 0.28% | 0.89% | 2.16% | 4.51% | 7.89% | 12.45% | 14.64% | 17.33% | 19.42% | 20.43% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.65% | 1.57% | 3.68% | 6.69% | 10.96% | 16.63% | 23.39% | 36.12% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 63.06% | 36.94% |
| Houston Oilers | 28.77% | 71.23% |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.05% | 96.95% |
| Buffalo Bills | 2.91% | 97.09% |
| Boston Patriots | 2.21% | 97.79% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 46.76% | 53.24% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 43.64% | 56.36% |
| San Diego Chargers | 8.18% | 91.82% |
| Denver Broncos | 1.29% | 98.71% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.13% | 99.87% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Championship Game |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 46.76% | 31.51% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 43.64% | 27.89% |
| New York Jets | 63.06% | 26.37% |
| Houston Oilers | 28.77% | 8.50% |
| San Diego Chargers | 8.18% | 3.90% |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.05% | 0.55% |
| Buffalo Bills | 2.91% | 0.44% |
| Boston Patriots | 2.21% | 0.41% |
| Denver Broncos | 1.29% | 0.41% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.13% | 0.02% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Boston Patriots | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | Houston Oilers | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Patriots | 0.19% | 0.15% | 0.07% | |||||||
| Buffalo Bills | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 0.06% | ||||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Denver Broncos | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.20% | |||||
| Houston Oilers | 0.03% | 0.19% | 3.83% | 3.44% | 1.01% | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.77% | 0.96% | 8.92% | 1.19% | 16.05% | |||||
| Miami Dolphins | 0.01% | 0.25% | 0.22% | 0.07% | ||||||
| New York Jets | 0.08% | 0.64% | 11.38% | 11.20% | 3.07% | |||||
| Oakland Raiders | 0.88% | 1.25% | 10.01% | 1.07% | 18.30% | |||||
| San Diego Chargers | 0.14% | 0.25% | 1.16% | 0.22% | 2.13% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Championship Game | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 61.73% | Eliminated in Championship Game |
Loser → ↓ Winner | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 38.27% | |
| Oakland Raiders | 61.73% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-09-14 | @ Denver Broncos | L 7-35 | 1426.73 | 1441.74 | 32.50% | 63.18% | -12.32 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-21 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 0-31 | 1414.41 | 1625.97 | 32.11% | 63.57% | -12.82 | 0-2 |
| 1969-09-28 | Oakland Raiders | L 23-38 | 1401.59 | 1639.87 | 28.85% | 66.84% | -8.03 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-05 | New York Jets | L 14-23 | 1393.56 | 1580.16 | 35.32% | 60.35% | -7.58 | 0-4 |
| 1969-10-11 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 16-23 | 1385.98 | 1420.63 | 30.07% | 65.62% | -5.71 | 0-5 |
| 1969-10-19 | San Diego Chargers | L 10-13 | 1380.27 | 1536.79 | 39.38% | 56.29% | -4.86 | 0-6 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ New York Jets | L 17-23 | 1375.41 | 1602.49 | 12.45% | 83.37% | -2.22 | 0-7 |
| 1969-11-02 | Houston Oilers | W 24-0 | 1373.19 | 1538.47 | 38.18% | 57.49% | +19.78 | 1-7 |
| 1969-11-09 | Miami Dolphins | L 16-17 | 1392.97 | 1419.93 | 57.66% | 38.01% | -4.05 | 1-8 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 25-14 | 1388.92 | 1380.13 | 35.58% | 60.10% | +13.99 | 2-8 |
| 1969-11-23 | Buffalo Bills | W 35-21 | 1402.91 | 1411.31 | 60.15% | 35.53% | +9.50 | 3-8 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 38-23 | 1412.41 | 1394.08 | 36.85% | 58.83% | +16.00 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 18-28 | 1428.41 | 1526.65 | 22.97% | 72.75% | -5.25 | 4-9 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Houston Oilers | L 23-27 | 1423.16 | 1514.75 | 23.66% | 72.06% | -3.42 | 4-10 |
| 1969-09-14 | New York Jets | L 19-33 | 1439.56 | 1582.89 | 41.21% | 54.46% | -10.96 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-21 | Houston Oilers | L 3-17 | 1428.60 | 1526.31 | 47.69% | 47.97% | -12.61 | 0-2 |
| 1969-09-28 | Denver Broncos | W 41-28 | 1415.99 | 1459.43 | 55.39% | 40.28% | +10.33 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Houston Oilers | L 14-28 | 1426.32 | 1544.34 | 21.02% | 74.71% | -5.69 | 1-3 |
| 1969-10-11 | Boston Patriots | W 23-16 | 1420.63 | 1385.98 | 65.62% | 30.07% | +5.71 | 2-3 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 21-50 | 1426.34 | 1654.69 | 12.37% | 83.45% | -4.86 | 2-4 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 6-24 | 1421.48 | 1411.03 | 35.80% | 59.88% | -10.85 | 2-5 |
| 1969-11-02 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 7-29 | 1410.63 | 1651.08 | 28.60% | 67.10% | -9.64 | 2-6 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ New York Jets | L 6-16 | 1400.99 | 1606.66 | 13.86% | 81.95% | -3.19 | 2-7 |
| 1969-11-16 | Miami Dolphins | W 28-3 | 1397.80 | 1423.98 | 57.76% | 37.91% | +13.51 | 3-7 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Boston Patriots | L 21-35 | 1411.31 | 1402.91 | 35.53% | 60.15% | -9.50 | 3-8 |
| 1969-11-30 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 16-13 | 1401.81 | 1360.94 | 66.37% | 29.32% | +3.65 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 19-22 | 1405.46 | 1678.76 | 9.84% | 86.03% | -1.24 | 4-9 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 6-45 | 1404.22 | 1531.90 | 20.11% | 75.63% | -9.10 | 4-10 |
| 1969-09-14 | Miami Dolphins | W 27-21 | 1350.51 | 1436.63 | 49.36% | 46.31% | +8.03 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-21 | San Diego Chargers | W 34-20 | 1358.54 | 1531.49 | 37.14% | 58.53% | +15.38 | 2-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 24-19 | 1373.92 | 1638.79 | 25.82% | 69.89% | +10.95 | 3-0 |
| 1969-10-04 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 14-21 | 1384.87 | 1524.43 | 19.04% | 76.71% | -3.65 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | New York Jets | L 7-21 | 1381.22 | 1587.74 | 32.75% | 62.93% | -8.78 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-19 | Denver Broncos | L 23-30 | 1372.44 | 1432.35 | 53.09% | 42.58% | -9.88 | 3-3 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 22-42 | 1362.56 | 1648.07 | 9.23% | 86.65% | -3.02 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-02 | Oakland Raiders | W 31-17 | 1359.54 | 1670.55 | 21.07% | 74.67% | +19.59 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Houston Oilers | T 31-31 | 1379.13 | 1518.68 | 19.04% | 76.71% | +1.00 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-16 | Boston Patriots | L 14-25 | 1380.13 | 1388.92 | 60.10% | 35.58% | -13.99 | 4-5 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ New York Jets | L 7-40 | 1366.14 | 1593.90 | 12.41% | 83.41% | -5.20 | 4-6 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 13-16 | 1360.94 | 1401.81 | 29.32% | 66.37% | -3.64 | 4-7 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 17-37 | 1357.30 | 1680.74 | 7.56% | 88.36% | -2.48 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Denver Broncos | L 16-27 | 1354.82 | 1428.22 | 25.60% | 70.11% | -6.12 | 4-9 |
| 1969-09-14 | Boston Patriots | W 35-7 | 1441.74 | 1426.73 | 63.18% | 32.50% | +12.32 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-21 | New York Jets | W 21-19 | 1454.06 | 1593.85 | 41.70% | 53.97% | +5.37 | 2-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 28-41 | 1459.43 | 1415.99 | 40.28% | 55.39% | -10.33 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 13-26 | 1449.10 | 1627.83 | 36.37% | 59.31% | -9.36 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-12 | Oakland Raiders | L 14-24 | 1439.74 | 1647.30 | 32.62% | 63.07% | -7.39 | 2-3 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 30-23 | 1432.35 | 1372.44 | 42.58% | 53.09% | +9.89 | 3-3 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ Houston Oilers | L 21-24 | 1442.24 | 1535.53 | 23.48% | 72.24% | -2.94 | 3-4 |
| 1969-11-02 | San Diego Chargers | W 13-0 | 1439.30 | 1530.65 | 48.61% | 47.06% | +12.00 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 10-41 | 1451.30 | 1650.96 | 14.27% | 81.52% | -5.79 | 4-5 |
| 1969-11-16 | Houston Oilers | T 20-20 | 1445.51 | 1517.68 | 51.35% | 44.31% | -0.12 | 4-5 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 24-45 | 1445.39 | 1508.95 | 26.69% | 69.01% | -8.81 | 4-6 |
| 1969-11-27 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 17-31 | 1436.58 | 1675.56 | 11.73% | 84.10% | -3.20 | 4-7 |
| 1969-12-07 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 24-27 | 1433.38 | 1378.09 | 41.93% | 53.74% | -5.16 | 4-8 |
| 1969-12-14 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 27-16 | 1428.22 | 1354.82 | 70.11% | 25.60% | +6.13 | 5-8 |
| 1969-09-14 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 17-21 | 1529.53 | 1634.94 | 22.25% | 73.47% | -3.22 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 17-3 | 1526.31 | 1428.60 | 47.97% | 47.69% | +12.61 | 1-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | Miami Dolphins | W 22-10 | 1538.92 | 1426.89 | 74.13% | 21.60% | +5.42 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | Buffalo Bills | W 28-14 | 1544.34 | 1426.32 | 74.71% | 21.02% | +5.69 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 0-24 | 1550.03 | 1637.20 | 24.12% | 71.60% | -8.53 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-20 | @ New York Jets | L 17-26 | 1541.50 | 1596.51 | 27.67% | 68.03% | -5.97 | 3-3 |
| 1969-10-26 | Denver Broncos | W 24-21 | 1535.53 | 1442.24 | 72.24% | 23.48% | +2.94 | 4-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Boston Patriots | L 0-24 | 1538.47 | 1373.19 | 57.49% | 38.18% | -19.79 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | Cincinnati Bengals | T 31-31 | 1518.68 | 1379.13 | 76.71% | 19.04% | -1.00 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Denver Broncos | T 20-20 | 1517.68 | 1445.51 | 44.31% | 51.35% | +0.12 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 32-7 | 1517.80 | 1410.47 | 49.36% | 46.31% | +16.39 | 5-4 |
| 1969-11-27 | San Diego Chargers | L 17-21 | 1534.19 | 1517.76 | 63.36% | 32.32% | -8.89 | 5-5 |
| 1969-12-06 | New York Jets | L 26-34 | 1525.30 | 1585.92 | 52.99% | 42.68% | -10.55 | 5-6 |
| 1969-12-14 | Boston Patriots | W 27-23 | 1514.75 | 1423.16 | 72.06% | 23.66% | +3.42 | 6-6 |
| 1969-09-14 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 27-9 | 1610.25 | 1547.22 | 43.02% | 52.65% | +15.72 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Boston Patriots | W 31-0 | 1625.97 | 1414.41 | 63.57% | 32.11% | +12.82 | 2-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 19-24 | 1638.79 | 1373.92 | 69.89% | 25.82% | -10.96 | 2-1 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Denver Broncos | W 26-13 | 1627.83 | 1449.10 | 59.31% | 36.37% | +9.37 | 3-1 |
| 1969-10-12 | Houston Oilers | W 24-0 | 1637.20 | 1550.03 | 71.60% | 24.12% | +8.53 | 4-1 |
| 1969-10-19 | Miami Dolphins | W 17-10 | 1645.73 | 1413.37 | 83.70% | 12.13% | +2.34 | 5-1 |
| 1969-10-26 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 42-22 | 1648.07 | 1362.56 | 86.65% | 9.23% | +3.01 | 6-1 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 29-7 | 1651.08 | 1410.63 | 67.10% | 28.60% | +9.65 | 7-1 |
| 1969-11-09 | San Diego Chargers | W 27-3 | 1660.73 | 1518.65 | 76.93% | 18.82% | +6.68 | 8-1 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ New York Jets | W 34-16 | 1667.41 | 1609.85 | 42.25% | 53.42% | +15.95 | 9-1 |
| 1969-11-23 | Oakland Raiders | L 24-27 | 1683.36 | 1659.75 | 64.26% | 31.43% | -7.80 | 9-2 |
| 1969-11-27 | Denver Broncos | W 31-17 | 1675.56 | 1436.58 | 84.10% | 11.73% | +3.20 | 10-2 |
| 1969-12-07 | Buffalo Bills | W 22-19 | 1678.76 | 1405.46 | 86.03% | 9.84% | +1.24 | 11-2 |
| 1969-12-13 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 6-10 | 1680.00 | 1683.21 | 34.01% | 61.67% | -4.87 | 11-3 |
| 1969-09-14 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 21-27 | 1436.63 | 1350.51 | 46.31% | 49.36% | -8.03 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-20 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 17-20 | 1428.60 | 1638.16 | 13.59% | 82.21% | -1.71 | 0-2 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Houston Oilers | L 10-22 | 1426.89 | 1538.92 | 21.60% | 74.13% | -5.42 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-04 | Oakland Raiders | T 20-20 | 1421.47 | 1647.91 | 30.27% | 65.41% | +0.61 | 0-3 |
| 1969-10-11 | San Diego Chargers | L 14-21 | 1422.08 | 1528.08 | 46.50% | 49.17% | -8.71 | 0-4 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 10-17 | 1413.37 | 1645.73 | 12.13% | 83.70% | -2.34 | 0-5 |
| 1969-10-26 | Buffalo Bills | W 24-6 | 1411.03 | 1421.48 | 59.88% | 35.80% | +10.86 | 1-5 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ New York Jets | L 31-34 | 1421.89 | 1604.71 | 15.50% | 80.28% | -1.96 | 1-6 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Boston Patriots | W 17-16 | 1419.93 | 1392.97 | 38.01% | 57.66% | +4.05 | 2-6 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 3-28 | 1423.98 | 1397.80 | 37.91% | 57.76% | -13.51 | 2-7 |
| 1969-11-23 | Houston Oilers | L 7-32 | 1410.47 | 1517.80 | 46.31% | 49.36% | -16.39 | 2-8 |
| 1969-11-30 | Boston Patriots | L 23-38 | 1394.08 | 1412.41 | 58.83% | 36.85% | -15.99 | 2-9 |
| 1969-12-07 | Denver Broncos | W 27-24 | 1378.09 | 1433.38 | 53.74% | 41.93% | +5.16 | 3-9 |
| 1969-12-14 | New York Jets | L 9-27 | 1383.25 | 1596.47 | 31.90% | 63.78% | -9.71 | 3-10 |
| 1969-09-14 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 33-19 | 1582.89 | 1439.56 | 54.46% | 41.21% | +10.96 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Denver Broncos | L 19-21 | 1593.85 | 1454.06 | 53.97% | 41.70% | -5.37 | 1-1 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 27-34 | 1588.48 | 1516.12 | 44.34% | 51.32% | -8.32 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-05 | @ Boston Patriots | W 23-14 | 1580.16 | 1393.56 | 60.35% | 35.32% | +7.58 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 21-7 | 1587.74 | 1381.22 | 62.93% | 32.75% | +8.77 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-20 | Houston Oilers | W 26-17 | 1596.51 | 1541.50 | 68.03% | 27.67% | +5.98 | 4-2 |
| 1969-10-26 | Boston Patriots | W 23-17 | 1602.49 | 1375.41 | 83.37% | 12.45% | +2.22 | 5-2 |
| 1969-11-02 | Miami Dolphins | W 34-31 | 1604.71 | 1421.89 | 80.28% | 15.50% | +1.95 | 6-2 |
| 1969-11-09 | Buffalo Bills | W 16-6 | 1606.66 | 1400.99 | 81.95% | 13.86% | +3.19 | 7-2 |
| 1969-11-16 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 16-34 | 1609.85 | 1667.41 | 53.42% | 42.25% | -15.95 | 7-3 |
| 1969-11-23 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 40-7 | 1593.90 | 1366.14 | 83.41% | 12.41% | +5.20 | 8-3 |
| 1969-11-30 | Oakland Raiders | L 14-27 | 1599.10 | 1667.56 | 51.88% | 43.79% | -13.18 | 8-4 |
| 1969-12-06 | @ Houston Oilers | W 34-26 | 1585.92 | 1525.30 | 42.68% | 52.99% | +10.55 | 9-4 |
| 1969-12-14 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 27-9 | 1596.47 | 1383.25 | 63.78% | 31.90% | +9.71 | 10-4 |
| 1969-09-14 | Houston Oilers | W 21-17 | 1634.94 | 1529.53 | 73.47% | 22.25% | +3.22 | 1-0 |
| 1969-09-20 | Miami Dolphins | W 20-17 | 1638.16 | 1428.60 | 82.21% | 13.59% | +1.71 | 2-0 |
| 1969-09-28 | @ Boston Patriots | W 38-23 | 1639.87 | 1401.59 | 66.84% | 28.85% | +8.04 | 3-0 |
| 1969-10-04 | @ Miami Dolphins | T 20-20 | 1647.91 | 1421.47 | 65.41% | 30.27% | -0.61 | 3-0 |
| 1969-10-12 | @ Denver Broncos | W 24-14 | 1647.30 | 1439.74 | 63.07% | 32.62% | +7.39 | 4-0 |
| 1969-10-19 | Buffalo Bills | W 50-21 | 1654.69 | 1426.34 | 83.45% | 12.37% | +4.86 | 5-0 |
| 1969-10-26 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 24-12 | 1659.55 | 1541.65 | 50.87% | 44.80% | +11.00 | 6-0 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 17-31 | 1670.55 | 1359.54 | 74.67% | 21.07% | -19.59 | 6-1 |
| 1969-11-09 | Denver Broncos | W 41-10 | 1650.96 | 1451.30 | 81.52% | 14.27% | +5.78 | 7-1 |
| 1969-11-16 | San Diego Chargers | W 21-16 | 1656.74 | 1511.97 | 77.17% | 18.58% | +3.01 | 8-1 |
| 1969-11-23 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | W 27-24 | 1659.75 | 1683.36 | 31.43% | 64.26% | +7.81 | 9-1 |
| 1969-11-30 | @ New York Jets | W 27-14 | 1667.56 | 1599.10 | 43.79% | 51.88% | +13.18 | 10-1 |
| 1969-12-07 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 37-17 | 1680.74 | 1357.30 | 88.36% | 7.56% | +2.47 | 11-1 |
| 1969-12-13 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 10-6 | 1683.21 | 1680.00 | 61.67% | 34.01% | +4.86 | 12-1 |
| 1969-09-14 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 9-27 | 1547.22 | 1610.25 | 52.65% | 43.02% | -15.73 | 0-1 |
| 1969-09-21 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 20-34 | 1531.49 | 1358.54 | 58.53% | 37.14% | -15.37 | 0-2 |
| 1969-09-28 | New York Jets | W 34-27 | 1516.12 | 1588.48 | 51.32% | 44.34% | +8.31 | 1-2 |
| 1969-10-04 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 21-14 | 1524.43 | 1384.87 | 76.71% | 19.04% | +3.65 | 2-2 |
| 1969-10-11 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 21-14 | 1528.08 | 1422.08 | 49.17% | 46.50% | +8.71 | 3-2 |
| 1969-10-19 | @ Boston Patriots | W 13-10 | 1536.79 | 1380.27 | 56.29% | 39.38% | +4.86 | 4-2 |
| 1969-10-26 | Oakland Raiders | L 12-24 | 1541.65 | 1659.55 | 44.80% | 50.87% | -11.00 | 4-3 |
| 1969-11-02 | @ Denver Broncos | L 0-13 | 1530.65 | 1439.30 | 47.06% | 48.61% | -12.00 | 4-4 |
| 1969-11-09 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 3-27 | 1518.65 | 1660.73 | 18.82% | 76.93% | -6.68 | 4-5 |
| 1969-11-16 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 16-21 | 1511.97 | 1656.74 | 18.58% | 77.17% | -3.02 | 4-6 |
| 1969-11-23 | Denver Broncos | W 45-24 | 1508.95 | 1445.39 | 69.01% | 26.69% | +8.81 | 5-6 |
| 1969-11-27 | @ Houston Oilers | W 21-17 | 1517.76 | 1534.19 | 32.32% | 63.36% | +8.89 | 6-6 |
| 1969-12-07 | Boston Patriots | W 28-18 | 1526.65 | 1428.41 | 72.75% | 22.97% | +5.25 | 7-6 |
| 1969-12-14 | Buffalo Bills | W 45-6 | 1531.90 | 1404.22 | 75.63% | 20.11% | +9.10 | 8-6 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-12-21 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 7-56 | 1518.17 | 1688.07 | 17.73% | 82.27% | -8.39 | 0-1 |
| 1969-12-20 | @ New York Jets | W 13-6 | 1675.13 | 1606.18 | 46.01% | 53.99% | +9.66 | 1-0 |
| 1970-01-04 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 17-7 | 1684.79 | 1696.46 | 34.89% | 65.11% | +13.92 | 2-0 |
| 1969-12-20 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 6-13 | 1606.18 | 1675.13 | 53.99% | 46.01% | -9.66 | 0-1 |
| 1969-12-21 | Houston Oilers | W 56-7 | 1688.07 | 1518.17 | 82.27% | 17.73% | +8.39 | 1-0 |
| 1970-01-04 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 7-17 | 1696.46 | 1684.79 | 65.11% | 34.89% | -13.92 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1969-11-02 | 21.07% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1359.54 | 31 | Oakland Raiders | 1670.55 | 17 |
| 2 | 1969-09-28 | 25.82% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1373.92 | 24 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1638.79 | 19 |
| 3 | 1969-11-23 | 31.43% | Oakland Raiders | 1659.75 | 27 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 1683.36 | 24 |
| 4 | 1969-11-27 | 32.32% | San Diego Chargers | 1517.76 | 21 | @ Houston Oilers | 1534.19 | 17 |
| 5 | 1970-01-04 * | 34.89% | Kansas City Chiefs | 1684.79 | 17 | @ Oakland Raiders | 1696.46 | 7 |
| 6 | 1969-11-16 | 35.58% | Boston Patriots | 1388.92 | 25 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1380.13 | 14 |
| 7 | 1969-11-30 | 36.85% | Boston Patriots | 1412.41 | 38 | @ Miami Dolphins | 1394.08 | 23 |
| 8 | 1969-09-21 | 37.14% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1358.54 | 34 | San Diego Chargers | 1531.49 | 20 |
| 9 | 1969-11-09 | 38.01% | Miami Dolphins | 1419.93 | 17 | @ Boston Patriots | 1392.97 | 16 |
| 10 | 1969-11-02 | 38.18% | @ Boston Patriots | 1373.19 | 24 | Houston Oilers | 1538.47 | 0 |
| 11 | 1969-09-21 | 41.70% | @ Denver Broncos | 1454.06 | 21 | New York Jets | 1593.85 | 19 |
| 12 | 1969-11-16 | 42.25% | Kansas City Chiefs | 1667.41 | 34 | @ New York Jets | 1609.85 | 16 |
| 13 | 1969-10-19 | 42.58% | Denver Broncos | 1432.35 | 30 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1372.44 | 23 |
| 14 | 1969-12-06 | 42.68% | New York Jets | 1585.92 | 34 | @ Houston Oilers | 1525.30 | 26 |
| 15 | 1969-09-14 | 43.02% | Kansas City Chiefs | 1610.25 | 27 | @ San Diego Chargers | 1547.22 | 9 |
| 16 | 1969-11-30 | 43.79% | Oakland Raiders | 1667.56 | 27 | @ New York Jets | 1599.10 | 14 |
| 17 | 1969-12-20 * | 46.01% | Kansas City Chiefs | 1675.13 | 13 | @ New York Jets | 1606.18 | 6 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1969-11-02 | 19.79 | @ Boston Patriots | 24 | 1373.19 | 38.18% | Houston Oilers | 0 | 1538.47 | 57.49% |
| 2 | 1969-11-02 | 19.59 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 31 | 1359.54 | 21.07% | Oakland Raiders | 17 | 1670.55 | 74.67% |
| 3 | 1969-11-23 | 16.39 | Houston Oilers | 32 | 1517.80 | 49.36% | @ Miami Dolphins | 7 | 1410.47 | 46.31% |
| 4 | 1969-11-30 | 16.00 | Boston Patriots | 38 | 1412.41 | 36.85% | @ Miami Dolphins | 23 | 1394.08 | 58.83% |
| 5 | 1969-11-16 | 15.95 | Kansas City Chiefs | 34 | 1667.41 | 42.25% | @ New York Jets | 16 | 1609.85 | 53.42% |
| 6 | 1969-09-14 | 15.73 | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 1610.25 | 43.02% | @ San Diego Chargers | 9 | 1547.22 | 52.65% |
| 7 | 1969-09-21 | 15.38 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 34 | 1358.54 | 37.14% | San Diego Chargers | 20 | 1531.49 | 58.53% |
| 8 | 1969-11-16 | 13.99 | Boston Patriots | 25 | 1388.92 | 35.58% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 1380.13 | 60.10% |
| 9 | 1970-01-04 * | 13.92 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 1684.79 | 34.89% | @ Oakland Raiders | 7 | 1696.46 | 65.11% |
| 10 | 1969-11-16 | 13.51 | @ Buffalo Bills | 28 | 1397.80 | 57.76% | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 1423.98 | 37.91% |
| 11 | 1969-11-30 | 13.18 | Oakland Raiders | 27 | 1667.56 | 43.79% | @ New York Jets | 14 | 1599.10 | 51.88% |
| 12 | 1969-09-21 | 12.82 | Kansas City Chiefs | 31 | 1625.97 | 63.57% | @ Boston Patriots | 0 | 1414.41 | 32.11% |
| 13 | 1969-09-21 | 12.61 | Houston Oilers | 17 | 1526.31 | 47.97% | @ Buffalo Bills | 3 | 1428.60 | 47.69% |
| 14 | 1969-09-14 | 12.32 | @ Denver Broncos | 35 | 1441.74 | 63.18% | Boston Patriots | 7 | 1426.73 | 32.50% |
| 15 | 1969-11-02 | 12.00 | @ Denver Broncos | 13 | 1439.30 | 48.61% | San Diego Chargers | 0 | 1530.65 | 47.06% |
| 16 | 1969-10-26 | 11.00 | Oakland Raiders | 24 | 1659.55 | 50.87% | @ San Diego Chargers | 12 | 1541.65 | 44.80% |
| 17 | 1969-09-14 | 10.96 | New York Jets | 33 | 1582.89 | 54.46% | @ Buffalo Bills | 19 | 1439.56 | 41.21% |
| 18 | 1969-09-28 | 10.96 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 24 | 1373.92 | 25.82% | Kansas City Chiefs | 19 | 1638.79 | 69.89% |
| 19 | 1969-10-26 | 10.86 | @ Miami Dolphins | 24 | 1411.03 | 59.88% | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 1421.48 | 35.80% |
| 20 | 1969-12-06 | 10.55 | New York Jets | 34 | 1585.92 | 42.68% | @ Houston Oilers | 26 | 1525.30 | 52.99% |
| 21 | 1969-09-28 | 10.33 | @ Buffalo Bills | 41 | 1415.99 | 55.39% | Denver Broncos | 28 | 1459.43 | 40.28% |
| 22 | 1969-10-19 | 9.89 | Denver Broncos | 30 | 1432.35 | 42.58% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 23 | 1372.44 | 53.09% |
| 23 | 1969-12-14 | 9.71 | New York Jets | 27 | 1596.47 | 63.78% | @ Miami Dolphins | 9 | 1383.25 | 31.90% |
| 24 | 1969-12-20 * | 9.66 | Kansas City Chiefs | 13 | 1675.13 | 46.01% | @ New York Jets | 6 | 1606.18 | 53.99% |
| 25 | 1969-11-02 | 9.65 | Kansas City Chiefs | 29 | 1651.08 | 67.10% | @ Buffalo Bills | 7 | 1410.63 | 28.60% |