1946 AAFC Season
56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Cleveland Browns
1st Title
Runner-Up
New York Yankees
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Cleveland Browns
4.45 wins above expected
12 wins · 7.55 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Miami Seahawks
3.53 wins below expected
3 wins · 6.53 expected wins
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Yankees Division | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 270 | 192 | +78 | 7.29 | +3.21 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bisons | 3 | 10 | 1 | .250 | 7 | 249 | 370 | -121 | 6.68 | -3.18 |
| 3 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 3 | 10 | 1 | .250 | 7 | 226 | 339 | -113 | 6.86 | -3.36 |
| 4 | Miami Seahawks | 3 | 11 | 0 | .214 | 7.5 | 167 | 378 | -211 | 6.53 | -3.53 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns Division | 12 | 2 | 0 | .857 | — | 423 | 137 | +286 | 7.55 | +4.45 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 5 | 0 | .643 | 3 | 307 | 189 | +118 | 7.10 | +1.90 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Dons | 7 | 5 | 2 | .571 | 4 | 305 | 290 | +15 | 7.06 | +0.94 |
| 4 | Chicago Rockets | 5 | 6 | 3 | .464 | 5.5 | 263 | 315 | -52 | 6.93 | -0.43 |
Playoff Bracket
AAFC Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | West | 1554 | 12 | 7.55 | +4.45 | 99.95% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1526 | 9 | 7.10 | +1.90 | 94.90% | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| New York Yankees | East | 1523 | 10.5 | 7.29 | +3.21 | 99.69% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Los Angeles Dons | West | 1504 | 8 | 7.06 | +0.94 | 95.30% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 | |
| Chicago Rockets | West | 1491 | 6.5 | 6.93 | -0.43 | 88.38% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | East | 1472 | 3.5 | 6.86 | -3.36 | 17.47% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Buffalo Bisons | East | 1471 | 3.5 | 6.68 | -3.18 | 19.85% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| Miami Seahawks | East | 1457 | 3 | 6.53 | -3.53 | 9.56% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.
Within East
| Team | Dodgers | Bisons | Seahawks | Yankees |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | — |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bisons |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Miami Seahawks |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New York Yankees |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Rockets | Browns | Dons | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Buffalo Bisons |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Miami Seahawks |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Yankees |
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
Within West
| Team | Rockets | Browns | Dons | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Rockets | — |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Browns |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Dons |
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Dodgers | Bisons | Seahawks | Yankees |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Rockets |
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Browns |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Dons |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 0.89% | 1.79% | — | 2.68% | — | 0.89% | 6.25% |
| 7–13 | 0.89% | 1.79% | 2.68% | 8.04% | 3.57% | — | 0.89% | 17.86% |
| 14–20 | 1.79% | 2.68% | 14.29% | 5.36% | 5.36% | — | 4.46% | 33.93% |
| 21–27 | — | 8.04% | 5.36% | 5.36% | 0.89% | — | — | 19.64% |
| 28–34 | 2.68% | 3.57% | 5.36% | 0.89% | — | 0.89% | — | 13.39% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 0.89% | 1.79% | — | 2.68% |
| 42+ | 0.89% | 0.89% | 4.46% | — | — | — | — | 6.25% |
| Total | 6.25% | 17.86% | 33.93% | 19.64% | 13.39% | 2.68% | 6.25% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.73 | 19.73 | +0.00 |
| SD | 12.24 | 12.24 | 19.60 |
| CV | 0.62 | 0.62 | — |
| Max | 66 | 66 | +52 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -52 |
Games Played: 56
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 21.43% | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 42.86% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 35.71% | 28.57% | 21.43% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Brooklyn Dodgers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 16.14 | 24.21 | -8.07 |
| SD | 6.85 | 13.93 | 17.60 |
| CV | 0.42 | 0.58 | — |
| Max | 30 | 66 | +23 |
| Min | 7 | 7 | -52 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 21.43% | 21.43% | — | — | 14.29% | 57.14% |
| 21–27 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 28–34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% |
| 42+ | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | — | — | 28.57% | 42.86% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 100% |
Buffalo Bisons — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 17.79 | 26.43 | -8.64 |
| SD | 11.62 | 13.15 | 18.19 |
| CV | 0.65 | 0.50 | — |
| Max | 49 | 62 | +32 |
| Min | 0 | 14 | -48 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 7–13 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% | 42.86% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 14.29% |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 21.43% | 28.57% | 21.43% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 100% |
Chicago Rockets — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 18.79 | 22.50 | -3.71 |
| SD | 10.83 | 14.05 | 17.08 |
| CV | 0.58 | 0.62 | — |
| Max | 38 | 51 | +21 |
| Min | 0 | 7 | -37 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 21–27 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | 7.14% | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| Total | 35.71% | 21.43% | 35.71% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 100% |
Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 30.21 | 9.79 | +20.43 |
| SD | 16.01 | 9.46 | 17.89 |
| CV | 0.53 | 0.97 | — |
| Max | 66 | 34 | +52 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -14 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 28.57% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 21–27 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | — | 7.14% | 50.00% | 21.43% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Los Angeles Dons — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.79 | 20.71 | +1.07 |
| SD | 13.45 | 10.11 | 19.98 |
| CV | 0.62 | 0.49 | — |
| Max | 62 | 48 | +48 |
| Min | 7 | 9 | -41 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 21.43% |
| 7–13 | — | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 28.57% | 14.29% | 50.00% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Miami Seahawks — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 11.93 | 27.00 | -15.07 |
| SD | 9.48 | 8.56 | 16.18 |
| CV | 0.79 | 0.32 | — |
| Max | 31 | 44 | +11 |
| Min | 0 | 14 | -44 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 14–20 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | 35.71% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 42.86% |
| 28–34 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 21.43% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 57.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | — | 100% |
New York Yankees — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 19.29 | 13.71 | +5.57 |
| SD | 8.80 | 9.39 | 12.07 |
| CV | 0.46 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 31 | 38 | +31 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -17 |
Games Played: 14
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35–41 | 42+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7–13 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 14–20 | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 21–27 | — | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 28–34 | — | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 35–41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42+ | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| Total | 7.14% | 28.57% | 50.00% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 100% |
San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 21.93 | 13.50 | +8.43 |
| SD | 12.79 | 6.21 | 15.85 |
| CV | 0.58 | 0.46 | — |
| Max | 48 | 24 | +41 |
| Min | 7 | 0 | -17 |
Games Played: 14
Actual Wins vs. Point Differential
Plot of wins against points differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 12 | 7.55 | +4.45 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 10.5 | 7.29 | +3.21 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 7.10 | +1.90 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Dons | 8 | 7.06 | +0.94 |
| 5 | Chicago Rockets | 6.5 | 6.93 | -0.43 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Seahawks | 3 | 6.53 | -3.53 |
| 2 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 3.5 | 6.86 | -3.36 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bisons | 3.5 | 6.68 | -3.18 |
| 4 | Chicago Rockets | 6.5 | 6.93 | -0.43 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Dons | 8 | 7.06 | +0.94 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 7 | Sep 6 – Oct 20 | 1 in 174 |
| 2 | New York Yankees | 5 | Oct 19 – Nov 17 | 1 in 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Dons | 3 | Nov 17 – Dec 1 | 1 in 10 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Nov 24 – Dec 8 | 1 in 9 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bisons | 2 | Oct 19 – Oct 27 | 1 in 5 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 6 | Nov 10 – Dec 13 | 1 in 126 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bisons | 4 | Sep 8 – Sep 25 | 1 in 21 |
| 3 | Miami Seahawks | 4 | Sep 6 – Oct 8 | 1 in 19 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Dons | 3 | Oct 12 – Oct 27 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | Oct 27 – Nov 3 | 1 in 6 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 33.47% | 27.20% | 22.29% | 17.04% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 25.13% | 25.08% | 25.26% | 24.53% |
| Buffalo Bisons | 21.81% | 24.29% | 26.65% | 27.25% |
| Miami Seahawks | 19.59% | 23.43% | 25.80% | 31.18% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 32.89% | 26.18% | 22.69% | 18.24% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.03% | 25.72% | 25.22% | 26.03% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 22.78% | 24.74% | 26.10% | 26.38% |
| Chicago Rockets | 21.30% | 23.36% | 25.99% | 29.35% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 19.35% | 15.75% | 14.44% | 13.00% | 10.94% | 10.11% | 8.90% | 7.51% |
| New York Yankees | 14.81% | 14.79% | 13.51% | 13.45% | 12.27% | 11.60% | 10.32% | 9.25% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 12.69% | 13.68% | 13.18% | 12.78% | 12.26% | 11.87% | 12.36% | 11.18% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 13.29% | 12.61% | 13.27% | 12.32% | 12.14% | 12.63% | 11.86% | 11.88% |
| Chicago Rockets | 11.89% | 11.81% | 11.78% | 12.45% | 13.60% | 12.56% | 12.78% | 13.13% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 10.93% | 11.74% | 11.63% | 12.42% | 12.63% | 13.07% | 13.94% | 13.64% |
| Buffalo Bisons | 9.24% | 10.16% | 11.14% | 11.88% | 13.09% | 14.48% | 14.68% | 15.33% |
| Miami Seahawks | 7.80% | 9.46% | 11.05% | 11.70% | 13.07% | 13.68% | 15.16% | 18.08% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 33.47% | 66.53% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 25.13% | 74.87% |
| Buffalo Bisons | 21.81% | 78.19% |
| Miami Seahawks | 19.59% | 80.41% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 32.89% | 67.11% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.03% | 76.97% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 22.78% | 77.22% |
| Chicago Rockets | 21.30% | 78.70% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Championship Game |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 32.89% | 19.68% |
| New York Yankees | 33.47% | 16.49% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 23.03% | 13.09% |
| Los Angeles Dons | 22.78% | 12.29% |
| Chicago Rockets | 21.30% | 10.57% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 25.13% | 10.52% |
| Buffalo Bisons | 21.81% | 9.31% |
| Miami Seahawks | 19.59% | 8.05% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Brooklyn Dodgers | Buffalo Bisons | Chicago Rockets | Cleveland Browns | Los Angeles Dons | Miami Seahawks | New York Yankees | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 2.48% | 2.97% | 2.58% | 2.49% | ||||
| Buffalo Bisons | 2.31% | 2.68% | 2.08% | 2.24% | ||||
| Chicago Rockets | 2.87% | 2.40% | 2.35% | 2.95% | ||||
| Cleveland Browns | 5.14% | 4.46% | 3.95% | 6.13% | ||||
| Los Angeles Dons | 3.35% | 2.74% | 2.37% | 3.83% | ||||
| Miami Seahawks | 2.09% | 2.31% | 2.01% | 1.64% | ||||
| New York Yankees | 3.85% | 5.25% | 3.82% | 3.57% | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 3.25% | 2.90% | 2.87% | 4.07% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Championship Game | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 57.98% | Won Championship Game |
| New York Yankees | 42.02% | Eliminated in Championship Game |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 57.98% | |
| New York Yankees | 42.02% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-09-08 | @ Buffalo Bisons | W 27-14 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 41.86% | 48.96% | +4.48 | 1-0 |
| 1946-09-13 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 14-20 | 1504.48 | 1500.00 | 42.49% | 48.32% | -2.67 | 1-1 |
| 1946-09-22 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 13-32 | 1501.81 | 1498.18 | 42.37% | 48.44% | -4.75 | 1-2 |
| 1946-10-06 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 7-26 | 1497.06 | 1522.24 | 38.39% | 52.51% | -4.33 | 1-3 |
| 1946-10-11 | Chicago Rockets | T 21-21 | 1492.73 | 1497.50 | 48.28% | 42.54% | -0.04 | 1-3 |
| 1946-10-19 | @ New York Yankees | L 10-21 | 1492.69 | 1504.05 | 40.28% | 50.57% | -3.45 | 1-4 |
| 1946-10-25 | Miami Seahawks | W 30-7 | 1489.24 | 1477.11 | 50.68% | 40.17% | +4.98 | 2-4 |
| 1946-11-02 | @ Chicago Rockets | W 21-14 | 1494.22 | 1495.73 | 41.65% | 49.18% | +3.30 | 3-4 |
| 1946-11-10 | Buffalo Bisons | L 14-17 | 1497.52 | 1483.46 | 50.95% | 39.91% | -2.23 | 3-5 |
| 1946-11-17 | Los Angeles Dons | L 14-19 | 1495.29 | 1497.42 | 48.66% | 42.16% | -2.77 | 3-6 |
| 1946-11-24 | San Francisco 49ers | L 14-30 | 1492.52 | 1510.74 | 46.35% | 44.45% | -4.73 | 3-7 |
| 1946-11-28 | New York Yankees | L 7-21 | 1487.79 | 1512.89 | 45.36% | 45.43% | -4.33 | 3-8 |
| 1946-12-08 | Cleveland Browns | L 14-66 | 1483.46 | 1546.99 | 39.94% | 50.92% | -7.44 | 3-9 |
| 1946-12-13 | @ Miami Seahawks | L 20-31 | 1476.02 | 1453.56 | 45.05% | 45.74% | -3.82 | 3-10 |
| 1946-09-08 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 14-27 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 48.96% | 41.86% | -4.48 | 0-1 |
| 1946-09-14 | @ New York Yankees | L 10-21 | 1495.52 | 1504.65 | 40.59% | 50.26% | -3.47 | 0-2 |
| 1946-09-22 | Cleveland Browns | L 0-28 | 1492.05 | 1511.71 | 46.15% | 44.65% | -6.23 | 0-3 |
| 1946-09-25 | @ Chicago Rockets | L 35-38 | 1485.82 | 1495.42 | 40.53% | 50.32% | -1.81 | 0-4 |
| 1946-09-29 | Los Angeles Dons | T 21-21 | 1484.01 | 1506.82 | 45.69% | 45.10% | -0.01 | 0-4 |
| 1946-10-04 | New York Yankees | L 13-21 | 1484.00 | 1503.84 | 46.12% | 44.68% | -3.33 | 0-5 |
| 1946-10-11 | Miami Seahawks | L 14-17 | 1480.67 | 1479.64 | 49.11% | 41.72% | -2.15 | 0-6 |
| 1946-10-19 | San Francisco 49ers | W 17-14 | 1478.52 | 1508.44 | 44.67% | 46.13% | +2.03 | 1-6 |
| 1946-10-27 | Chicago Rockets | W 49-17 | 1480.55 | 1502.23 | 45.86% | 44.94% | +6.51 | 2-6 |
| 1946-11-02 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-27 | 1487.06 | 1511.39 | 38.51% | 52.39% | -3.60 | 2-7 |
| 1946-11-10 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 17-14 | 1483.46 | 1497.52 | 39.91% | 50.95% | +2.24 | 3-7 |
| 1946-11-18 | @ Miami Seahawks | L 14-21 | 1485.70 | 1466.28 | 44.62% | 46.18% | -3.03 | 3-8 |
| 1946-11-24 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 17-42 | 1482.67 | 1536.71 | 34.59% | 56.47% | -4.50 | 3-9 |
| 1946-12-01 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 14-62 | 1478.17 | 1504.29 | 38.27% | 52.64% | -6.87 | 3-10 |
| 1946-09-13 | Cleveland Browns | L 6-20 | 1500.00 | 1507.14 | 47.94% | 42.87% | -4.56 | 0-1 |
| 1946-09-20 | New York Yankees | T 17-17 | 1495.44 | 1508.12 | 47.15% | 43.66% | -0.02 | 0-1 |
| 1946-09-25 | Buffalo Bisons | W 38-35 | 1495.42 | 1485.82 | 50.32% | 40.53% | +1.81 | 1-1 |
| 1946-09-29 | San Francisco 49ers | W 24-7 | 1497.23 | 1502.93 | 48.15% | 42.67% | +4.52 | 2-1 |
| 1946-10-05 | Los Angeles Dons | L 9-21 | 1501.75 | 1506.82 | 48.24% | 42.58% | -4.25 | 2-2 |
| 1946-10-11 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | T 21-21 | 1497.50 | 1492.73 | 42.54% | 48.28% | +0.03 | 2-2 |
| 1946-10-18 | Miami Seahawks | W 28-7 | 1497.53 | 1481.80 | 51.19% | 39.68% | +4.70 | 3-2 |
| 1946-10-27 | @ Buffalo Bisons | L 17-49 | 1502.23 | 1480.55 | 44.94% | 45.86% | -6.50 | 3-3 |
| 1946-11-02 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 14-21 | 1495.73 | 1494.22 | 49.18% | 41.65% | -3.30 | 3-4 |
| 1946-11-11 | @ Miami Seahawks | W 20-7 | 1492.43 | 1470.49 | 44.98% | 45.82% | +4.22 | 4-4 |
| 1946-11-17 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 14-51 | 1496.65 | 1530.84 | 37.18% | 53.76% | -5.87 | 4-5 |
| 1946-11-24 | @ New York Yankees | W 38-28 | 1490.78 | 1517.10 | 38.24% | 52.67% | +4.20 | 5-5 |
| 1946-11-30 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 0-14 | 1494.98 | 1515.47 | 39.03% | 51.85% | -3.77 | 5-6 |
| 1946-12-15 | @ Los Angeles Dons | T 17-17 | 1491.21 | 1504.43 | 40.02% | 50.83% | +0.06 | 5-6 |
| 1946-09-06 | Miami Seahawks | W 44-0 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 48.96% | 41.86% | +7.14 | 1-0 |
| 1946-09-13 | @ Chicago Rockets | W 20-6 | 1507.14 | 1500.00 | 42.87% | 47.94% | +4.57 | 2-0 |
| 1946-09-22 | @ Buffalo Bisons | W 28-0 | 1511.71 | 1492.05 | 44.65% | 46.15% | +6.23 | 3-0 |
| 1946-09-29 | New York Yankees | W 24-7 | 1517.94 | 1508.14 | 50.35% | 40.50% | +4.30 | 4-0 |
| 1946-10-06 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 26-7 | 1522.24 | 1497.06 | 52.51% | 38.39% | +4.34 | 5-0 |
| 1946-10-12 | @ New York Yankees | W 7-0 | 1526.58 | 1507.16 | 44.62% | 46.18% | +3.11 | 6-0 |
| 1946-10-20 | Los Angeles Dons | W 31-14 | 1529.69 | 1507.27 | 52.12% | 38.77% | +4.14 | 7-0 |
| 1946-10-27 | San Francisco 49ers | L 20-34 | 1533.83 | 1506.40 | 52.82% | 38.09% | -4.99 | 7-1 |
| 1946-11-03 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 16-17 | 1528.84 | 1498.54 | 46.18% | 44.62% | -1.18 | 7-2 |
| 1946-11-10 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 14-7 | 1527.66 | 1514.98 | 43.66% | 47.15% | +3.18 | 8-2 |
| 1946-11-17 | Chicago Rockets | W 51-14 | 1530.84 | 1496.65 | 53.76% | 37.18% | +5.87 | 9-2 |
| 1946-11-24 | Buffalo Bisons | W 42-17 | 1536.71 | 1482.67 | 56.47% | 34.59% | +4.50 | 10-2 |
| 1946-12-03 | @ Miami Seahawks | W 34-0 | 1541.21 | 1465.19 | 52.67% | 38.24% | +5.78 | 11-2 |
| 1946-12-08 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 66-14 | 1546.99 | 1483.46 | 50.92% | 39.94% | +7.44 | 12-2 |
| 1946-09-13 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 20-14 | 1500.00 | 1504.48 | 48.32% | 42.49% | +2.67 | 1-0 |
| 1946-09-20 | Miami Seahawks | W 30-14 | 1502.67 | 1490.03 | 50.75% | 40.10% | +4.15 | 2-0 |
| 1946-09-29 | @ Buffalo Bisons | T 21-21 | 1506.82 | 1484.01 | 45.10% | 45.69% | +0.00 | 2-0 |
| 1946-10-05 | @ Chicago Rockets | W 21-9 | 1506.82 | 1501.75 | 42.58% | 48.24% | +4.25 | 3-0 |
| 1946-10-12 | San Francisco 49ers | L 14-23 | 1511.07 | 1504.65 | 49.87% | 40.97% | -3.80 | 3-1 |
| 1946-10-20 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 14-31 | 1507.27 | 1529.69 | 38.77% | 52.12% | -4.13 | 3-2 |
| 1946-10-27 | New York Yankees | L 17-31 | 1503.14 | 1507.49 | 48.34% | 42.48% | -4.60 | 3-3 |
| 1946-11-03 | Cleveland Browns | W 17-16 | 1498.54 | 1528.84 | 44.62% | 46.18% | +1.18 | 4-3 |
| 1946-11-10 | @ New York Yankees | L 12-17 | 1499.72 | 1513.73 | 39.92% | 50.94% | -2.30 | 4-4 |
| 1946-11-17 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 19-14 | 1497.42 | 1495.29 | 42.16% | 48.66% | +2.76 | 5-4 |
| 1946-11-25 | @ Miami Seahawks | W 34-21 | 1500.18 | 1469.30 | 46.26% | 44.53% | +4.11 | 6-4 |
| 1946-12-01 | Buffalo Bisons | W 62-14 | 1504.29 | 1478.17 | 52.64% | 38.27% | +6.86 | 7-4 |
| 1946-12-08 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-48 | 1511.15 | 1519.25 | 40.73% | 50.11% | -6.72 | 7-5 |
| 1946-12-15 | Chicago Rockets | T 17-17 | 1504.43 | 1491.21 | 50.83% | 40.02% | -0.06 | 7-5 |
| 1946-09-06 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 0-44 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 41.86% | 48.96% | -7.14 | 0-1 |
| 1946-09-15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 14-21 | 1492.86 | 1495.35 | 41.51% | 49.31% | -2.83 | 0-2 |
| 1946-09-20 | @ Los Angeles Dons | L 14-30 | 1490.03 | 1502.67 | 40.10% | 50.75% | -4.14 | 0-3 |
| 1946-10-08 | San Francisco 49ers | L 7-34 | 1485.89 | 1498.41 | 47.17% | 43.63% | -6.25 | 0-4 |
| 1946-10-11 | @ Buffalo Bisons | W 17-14 | 1479.64 | 1480.67 | 41.72% | 49.11% | +2.16 | 1-4 |
| 1946-10-18 | @ Chicago Rockets | L 7-28 | 1481.80 | 1497.53 | 39.68% | 51.19% | -4.69 | 1-5 |
| 1946-10-25 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-30 | 1477.11 | 1489.24 | 40.17% | 50.68% | -4.98 | 1-6 |
| 1946-11-03 | @ New York Yankees | L 21-24 | 1472.13 | 1512.09 | 36.42% | 54.55% | -1.64 | 1-7 |
| 1946-11-11 | Chicago Rockets | L 7-20 | 1470.49 | 1492.43 | 45.82% | 44.98% | -4.21 | 1-8 |
| 1946-11-18 | Buffalo Bisons | W 21-14 | 1466.28 | 1485.70 | 46.18% | 44.62% | +3.02 | 2-8 |
| 1946-11-25 | Los Angeles Dons | L 21-34 | 1469.30 | 1500.18 | 44.53% | 46.26% | -4.11 | 2-9 |
| 1946-12-03 | Cleveland Browns | L 0-34 | 1465.19 | 1541.21 | 38.24% | 52.67% | -5.78 | 2-10 |
| 1946-12-09 | New York Yankees | L 0-31 | 1459.41 | 1517.23 | 40.73% | 50.11% | -5.85 | 2-11 |
| 1946-12-13 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 31-20 | 1453.56 | 1476.02 | 45.74% | 45.05% | +3.83 | 3-11 |
| 1946-09-08 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 21-7 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 41.86% | 48.96% | +4.65 | 1-0 |
| 1946-09-14 | Buffalo Bisons | W 21-10 | 1504.65 | 1495.52 | 50.26% | 40.59% | +3.47 | 2-0 |
| 1946-09-20 | @ Chicago Rockets | T 17-17 | 1508.12 | 1495.44 | 43.66% | 47.15% | +0.02 | 2-0 |
| 1946-09-29 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 7-24 | 1508.14 | 1517.94 | 40.50% | 50.35% | -4.30 | 2-1 |
| 1946-10-04 | @ Buffalo Bisons | W 21-13 | 1503.84 | 1484.00 | 44.68% | 46.12% | +3.32 | 3-1 |
| 1946-10-12 | Cleveland Browns | L 0-7 | 1507.16 | 1526.58 | 46.18% | 44.62% | -3.11 | 3-2 |
| 1946-10-19 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 21-10 | 1504.05 | 1492.69 | 50.57% | 40.28% | +3.44 | 4-2 |
| 1946-10-27 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 31-17 | 1507.49 | 1503.14 | 42.48% | 48.34% | +4.60 | 5-2 |
| 1946-11-03 | Miami Seahawks | W 24-21 | 1512.09 | 1472.13 | 54.55% | 36.42% | +1.64 | 6-2 |
| 1946-11-10 | Los Angeles Dons | W 17-12 | 1513.73 | 1499.72 | 50.94% | 39.92% | +2.30 | 7-2 |
| 1946-11-17 | San Francisco 49ers | W 10-9 | 1516.03 | 1511.81 | 49.56% | 41.27% | +1.07 | 8-2 |
| 1946-11-24 | Chicago Rockets | L 28-38 | 1517.10 | 1490.78 | 52.67% | 38.24% | -4.21 | 8-3 |
| 1946-11-28 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 21-7 | 1512.89 | 1487.79 | 45.43% | 45.36% | +4.34 | 9-3 |
| 1946-12-09 | @ Miami Seahawks | W 31-0 | 1517.23 | 1459.41 | 50.11% | 40.73% | +5.85 | 10-3 |
| 1946-09-08 | New York Yankees | L 7-21 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 48.96% | 41.86% | -4.65 | 0-1 |
| 1946-09-15 | Miami Seahawks | W 21-14 | 1495.35 | 1492.86 | 49.31% | 41.51% | +2.83 | 1-1 |
| 1946-09-22 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 32-13 | 1498.18 | 1501.81 | 48.44% | 42.37% | +4.75 | 2-1 |
| 1946-09-29 | @ Chicago Rockets | L 7-24 | 1502.93 | 1497.23 | 42.67% | 48.15% | -4.52 | 2-2 |
| 1946-10-08 | @ Miami Seahawks | W 34-7 | 1498.41 | 1485.89 | 43.63% | 47.17% | +6.24 | 3-2 |
| 1946-10-12 | @ Los Angeles Dons | W 23-14 | 1504.65 | 1511.07 | 40.97% | 49.87% | +3.79 | 4-2 |
| 1946-10-19 | @ Buffalo Bisons | L 14-17 | 1508.44 | 1478.52 | 46.13% | 44.67% | -2.04 | 4-3 |
| 1946-10-27 | @ Cleveland Browns | W 34-20 | 1506.40 | 1533.83 | 38.09% | 52.82% | +4.99 | 5-3 |
| 1946-11-02 | Buffalo Bisons | W 27-14 | 1511.39 | 1487.06 | 52.39% | 38.51% | +3.59 | 6-3 |
| 1946-11-10 | Cleveland Browns | L 7-14 | 1514.98 | 1527.66 | 47.15% | 43.66% | -3.17 | 6-4 |
| 1946-11-17 | @ New York Yankees | L 9-10 | 1511.81 | 1516.03 | 41.27% | 49.56% | -1.07 | 6-5 |
| 1946-11-24 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 30-14 | 1510.74 | 1492.52 | 44.45% | 46.35% | +4.73 | 7-5 |
| 1946-11-30 | Chicago Rockets | W 14-0 | 1515.47 | 1494.98 | 51.85% | 39.03% | +3.78 | 8-5 |
| 1946-12-08 | Los Angeles Dons | W 48-7 | 1519.25 | 1511.15 | 50.11% | 40.73% | +6.73 | 9-5 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1946-12-22 | New York Yankees | W 14-9 | 1554.43 | 1523.08 | 58.02% | 41.98% | +2.17 | 1-0 |
| 1946-12-22 | @ Cleveland Browns | L 9-14 | 1523.08 | 1554.43 | 41.98% | 58.02% | -2.18 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1946-10-27 | 38.09% | San Francisco 49ers | 1506.40 | 34 | @ Cleveland Browns | 1533.83 | 20 |
| 2 | 1946-11-24 | 38.24% | Chicago Rockets | 1490.78 | 38 | @ New York Yankees | 1517.10 | 28 |
| 3 | 1946-11-10 | 39.91% | Buffalo Bisons | 1483.46 | 17 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1497.52 | 14 |
| 4 | 1946-10-12 | 40.97% | San Francisco 49ers | 1504.65 | 23 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 1511.07 | 14 |
| 5 | 1946-11-02 | 41.65% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1494.22 | 21 | @ Chicago Rockets | 1495.73 | 14 |
| 6 | 1946-10-11 | 41.72% | Miami Seahawks | 1479.64 | 17 | @ Buffalo Bisons | 1480.67 | 14 |
| 7 | 1946-09-08 | 41.86% | New York Yankees | 1500.00 | 21 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1500.00 | 7 |
| 8 | 1946-09-08 | 41.86% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1500.00 | 27 | @ Buffalo Bisons | 1500.00 | 14 |
| 9 | 1946-11-17 | 42.16% | Los Angeles Dons | 1497.42 | 19 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1495.29 | 14 |
| 10 | 1946-10-27 | 42.48% | New York Yankees | 1507.49 | 31 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 1503.14 | 17 |
| 11 | 1946-10-05 | 42.58% | Los Angeles Dons | 1506.82 | 21 | @ Chicago Rockets | 1501.75 | 9 |
| 12 | 1946-09-13 | 42.87% | Cleveland Browns | 1507.14 | 20 | @ Chicago Rockets | 1500.00 | 6 |
| 13 | 1946-10-08 | 43.63% | San Francisco 49ers | 1498.41 | 34 | @ Miami Seahawks | 1485.89 | 7 |
| 14 | 1946-11-10 | 43.66% | Cleveland Browns | 1527.66 | 14 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1514.98 | 7 |
| 15 | 1946-11-24 | 44.45% | San Francisco 49ers | 1510.74 | 30 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1492.52 | 14 |
| 16 | 1946-10-12 | 44.62% | Cleveland Browns | 1526.58 | 7 | @ New York Yankees | 1507.16 | 0 |
| 17 | 1946-11-03 | 44.62% | @ Los Angeles Dons | 1498.54 | 17 | Cleveland Browns | 1528.84 | 16 |
| 18 | 1946-09-22 | 44.65% | Cleveland Browns | 1511.71 | 28 | @ Buffalo Bisons | 1492.05 | 0 |
| 19 | 1946-10-19 | 44.67% | @ Buffalo Bisons | 1478.52 | 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 1508.44 | 14 |
| 20 | 1946-10-04 | 44.68% | New York Yankees | 1503.84 | 21 | @ Buffalo Bisons | 1484.00 | 13 |
| 21 | 1946-11-11 | 44.98% | Chicago Rockets | 1492.43 | 20 | @ Miami Seahawks | 1470.49 | 7 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1946-12-08 | 7.44 | Cleveland Browns | 66 | 1546.99 | 50.92% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 14 | 1483.46 | 39.94% |
| 2 | 1946-09-06 | 7.14 | @ Cleveland Browns | 44 | 1500.00 | 48.96% | Miami Seahawks | 0 | 1500.00 | 41.86% |
| 3 | 1946-12-01 | 6.87 | @ Los Angeles Dons | 62 | 1504.29 | 52.64% | Buffalo Bisons | 14 | 1478.17 | 38.27% |
| 4 | 1946-12-08 | 6.73 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 48 | 1519.25 | 50.11% | Los Angeles Dons | 7 | 1511.15 | 40.73% |
| 5 | 1946-10-27 | 6.51 | @ Buffalo Bisons | 49 | 1480.55 | 45.86% | Chicago Rockets | 17 | 1502.23 | 44.94% |
| 6 | 1946-10-08 | 6.25 | San Francisco 49ers | 34 | 1498.41 | 43.63% | @ Miami Seahawks | 7 | 1485.89 | 47.17% |
| 7 | 1946-09-22 | 6.23 | Cleveland Browns | 28 | 1511.71 | 44.65% | @ Buffalo Bisons | 0 | 1492.05 | 46.15% |
| 8 | 1946-11-17 | 5.87 | @ Cleveland Browns | 51 | 1530.84 | 53.76% | Chicago Rockets | 14 | 1496.65 | 37.18% |
| 9 | 1946-12-09 | 5.85 | New York Yankees | 31 | 1517.23 | 50.11% | @ Miami Seahawks | 0 | 1459.41 | 40.73% |
| 10 | 1946-12-03 | 5.78 | Cleveland Browns | 34 | 1541.21 | 52.67% | @ Miami Seahawks | 0 | 1465.19 | 38.24% |
| 11 | 1946-10-27 | 4.99 | San Francisco 49ers | 34 | 1506.40 | 38.09% | @ Cleveland Browns | 20 | 1533.83 | 52.82% |
| 12 | 1946-10-25 | 4.98 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 30 | 1489.24 | 50.68% | Miami Seahawks | 7 | 1477.11 | 40.17% |
| 13 | 1946-09-22 | 4.75 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 32 | 1498.18 | 48.44% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 13 | 1501.81 | 42.37% |
| 14 | 1946-11-24 | 4.73 | San Francisco 49ers | 30 | 1510.74 | 44.45% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 14 | 1492.52 | 46.35% |
| 15 | 1946-10-18 | 4.70 | @ Chicago Rockets | 28 | 1497.53 | 51.19% | Miami Seahawks | 7 | 1481.80 | 39.68% |
| 16 | 1946-09-08 | 4.65 | New York Yankees | 21 | 1500.00 | 41.86% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1500.00 | 48.96% |
| 17 | 1946-10-27 | 4.60 | New York Yankees | 31 | 1507.49 | 42.48% | @ Los Angeles Dons | 17 | 1503.14 | 48.34% |
| 18 | 1946-09-13 | 4.57 | Cleveland Browns | 20 | 1507.14 | 42.87% | @ Chicago Rockets | 6 | 1500.00 | 47.94% |
| 19 | 1946-09-29 | 4.52 | @ Chicago Rockets | 24 | 1497.23 | 48.15% | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1502.93 | 42.67% |
| 20 | 1946-11-24 | 4.50 | @ Cleveland Browns | 42 | 1536.71 | 56.47% | Buffalo Bisons | 17 | 1482.67 | 34.59% |
| 21 | 1946-09-08 | 4.48 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 27 | 1500.00 | 41.86% | @ Buffalo Bisons | 14 | 1500.00 | 48.96% |
| 22 | 1946-10-06 | 4.34 | @ Cleveland Browns | 26 | 1522.24 | 52.51% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 7 | 1497.06 | 38.39% |
| 23 | 1946-11-28 | 4.34 | New York Yankees | 21 | 1512.89 | 45.43% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 7 | 1487.79 | 45.36% |
| 24 | 1946-09-29 | 4.30 | @ Cleveland Browns | 24 | 1517.94 | 50.35% | New York Yankees | 7 | 1508.14 | 40.50% |
| 25 | 1946-10-05 | 4.25 | Los Angeles Dons | 21 | 1506.82 | 42.58% | @ Chicago Rockets | 9 | 1501.75 | 48.24% |