1918-19 NHL Season
27 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Montreal Canadiens
1st Title
Runner-Up
Ottawa Senators (1st)
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Ottawa Senators (1st)
5.99 points above expected
24 points · 18.01 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Toronto Arenas
7.53 points below expected
10 points · 17.53 expected points
Final Standings
Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa Senators (1st) Division | 12 | 6 | 0 | 24 | .667 | 71 | 53 | +18 | 18.01 | +5.99 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens Playoffs | 10 | 8 | 0 | 20 | .556 | 88 | 78 | +10 | 18.45 | +1.55 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 5 | 13 | 0 | 10 | .278 | 64 | 92 | -28 | 17.53 | -7.53 |
Playoff Bracket
NHL Playoffs
NHL Final
Season Summary
Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals from 100,000 simulations. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1509 | 24 | 18.01 | +5.99 | 96.68% | 4 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 32 | ||
| Montreal Canadiens | 1508 | 20 | 18.45 | +1.55 | 73.94% | 5 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 24 | 32 | ||
| Toronto Arenas | 1483 | 10 | 17.53 | -7.53 | 3.46% | 2 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 32 |
Head-to-Head
Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.
| Team | Canadiens | (1st) | Arenas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | — |
8
(9.6 exp.)
|
12
(8.8 exp.)
|
| Ottawa Senators (1st) |
10
(8.4 exp.)
|
— |
14
(9.7 exp.)
|
| Toronto Arenas |
6
(9.2 exp.)
|
4
(8.3 exp.)
|
— |
Scoreline Distribution
Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 1.85% | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70% | 5.56% |
| 1 | 1.85% | — | 1.85% | 1.85% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 2 | — | 1.85% | — | 3.70% | 3.70% | 7.41% | — | 3.70% | 20.37% |
| 3 | — | 1.85% | 3.70% | — | 5.56% | 1.85% | 3.70% | 3.70% | 20.37% |
| 4 | — | — | 3.70% | 5.56% | — | — | 1.85% | 1.85% | 12.96% |
| 5 | — | — | 7.41% | 1.85% | — | — | — | — | 9.26% |
| 6 | — | — | — | 3.70% | 1.85% | — | — | 3.70% | 9.26% |
| 7+ | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | 3.70% | 1.85% | — | 3.70% | — | 16.67% |
| Total | 5.56% | 5.56% | 20.37% | 20.37% | 12.96% | 9.26% | 9.26% | 16.67% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.00 |
| SD | 2.83 | 2.83 | 4.30 |
| CV | 0.68 | 0.68 | — |
| Max | 13 | 13 | +10 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -10 |
Games Played: 27
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% | 11.11% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 16.67% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | 11.11% | — | — | 5.56% | — | 16.67% |
| 5 | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 6 | — | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 7+ | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | — | 11.11% | — | 27.78% |
| Total | 5.56% | 5.56% | 11.11% | 27.78% | 5.56% | 5.56% | 22.22% | 16.67% | 100% |
Montreal Canadiens — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 4.89 | 4.33 | +0.56 |
| SD | 3.56 | 2.66 | 4.94 |
| CV | 0.73 | 0.61 | — |
| Max | 13 | 11 | +10 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -8 |
Games Played: 18
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 2 | — | 5.56% | — | — | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 3 | — | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 4 | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 5 | — | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% |
| 7+ | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| Total | 11.11% | 11.11% | 33.33% | 11.11% | 11.11% | 16.67% | — | 5.56% | 100% |
Ottawa Senators (1st) — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 3.94 | 2.94 | +1.00 |
| SD | 2.15 | 2.36 | 3.12 |
| CV | 0.55 | 0.80 | — |
| Max | 9 | 10 | +7 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 18
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% |
| 1 | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 2 | — | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 22.22% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | 22.22% |
| 4 | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% | 11.11% |
| 5 | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 6 | — | — | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 5.56% | 16.67% |
| 7+ | — | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | — | — | 16.67% | 22.22% | 22.22% | 5.56% | 5.56% | 27.78% | 100% |
Toronto Arenas — Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 3.56 | 5.11 | -1.56 |
| SD | 2.57 | 3.12 | 4.41 |
| CV | 0.72 | 0.61 | — |
| Max | 11 | 13 | +8 |
| Min | 0 | 2 | -10 |
Games Played: 18
Points Points vs. Goal Differential
Plot of points against goals differential across the entire season. Hover over a team for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 24 | 18.01 | +5.99 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 20 | 18.45 | +1.55 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 10 | 17.53 | -7.53 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Arenas | 10 | 17.53 | -7.53 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 20 | 18.45 | +1.55 |
| 3 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 24 | 18.01 | +5.99 |
Top Streaks
The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 5 | Jan 23 – Feb 6 | 1 in 40 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | Jan 4 – Jan 18 | 1 in 36 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 2 | Jan 14 – Jan 21 | 51% |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Jan 21 – Jan 30 | 1 in 8 |
| 2 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | Jan 14 – Jan 18 | 1 in 7 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 3 | Dec 23 – Dec 28 | 1 in 7 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 5 | Jan 23 – Feb 6 | 1 in 34 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | Jan 4 – Jan 18 | 1 in 31 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 2 | Jan 14 – Jan 21 | 53% |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Jan 21 – Jan 30 | 1 in 7 |
| 2 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | Jan 14 – Jan 18 | 1 in 7 |
| 3 | Toronto Arenas | 3 | Dec 23 – Dec 28 | 1 in 7 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position across the 100,000 simulations.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 37.40% | 33.43% | 29.17% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 33.57% | 33.41% | 33.02% |
| Toronto Arenas | 29.03% | 33.16% | 37.81% |
Win Totals in Context
How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed across the 100,000 simulations. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 37.40% | 33.43% | 29.17% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 33.57% | 33.41% | 33.02% |
| Toronto Arenas | 29.03% | 33.16% | 37.81% |
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 70.83% | 37.36% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 66.98% | 35.89% |
| Toronto Arenas | 62.19% | 26.75% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Montreal Canadiens | Ottawa Senators (1st) | Toronto Arenas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 19.25% | 18.11% | |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 18.56% | 17.33% | |
| Toronto Arenas | 14.91% | 11.84% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
How we would have expected the postseason to play out given the actual playoff bracket according to the 100,000 simulations. Table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The round buttons switch to heat maps that show how often each pair of teams faced off in that round.
| Team | Won Stanley Cup |
|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 58.80% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 41.20% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Montreal Canadiens | Ottawa Senators (1st) |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 41.20% | |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 58.80% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all 100,000 simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1918-12-21 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-5 | 1504.49 | 1496.99 | 73.97% | 1.48% | 24.55% | -3.64 | 0 |
| 1918-12-23 | @ Toronto Arenas | W 4-3 | 1500.85 | 1498.52 | 25.61% | 1.48% | 72.91% | +1.57 | 2 |
| 1918-12-28 | Toronto Arenas | W 6-3 | 1502.42 | 1495.72 | 73.88% | 1.48% | 24.63% | +1.13 | 4 |
| 1919-01-02 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-7 | 1503.55 | 1500.92 | 25.65% | 1.48% | 72.87% | -1.94 | 4 |
| 1919-01-04 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-2 | 1501.61 | 1502.86 | 73.02% | 1.48% | 25.49% | +1.26 | 6 |
| 1919-01-07 | @ Toronto Arenas | W 7-6 | 1502.87 | 1495.54 | 26.16% | 1.48% | 72.35% | +1.51 | 8 |
| 1919-01-11 | Toronto Arenas | W 13-4 | 1504.38 | 1493.14 | 74.37% | 1.48% | 24.15% | +2.49 | 10 |
| 1919-01-16 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 10-6 | 1506.87 | 1501.16 | 25.98% | 1.48% | 72.53% | +3.61 | 12 |
| 1919-01-18 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-3 | 1510.48 | 1497.55 | 74.54% | 1.48% | 23.98% | +0.82 | 14 |
| 1919-01-21 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 3-11 | 1511.30 | 1491.97 | 27.52% | 1.48% | 71.00% | -2.79 | 14 |
| 1919-01-25 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 0-1 | 1508.51 | 1497.29 | 74.36% | 1.48% | 24.15% | -1.83 | 14 |
| 1919-01-30 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-3 | 1506.68 | 1500.80 | 26.00% | 1.48% | 72.52% | -0.58 | 14 |
| 1919-02-01 | Toronto Arenas | W 10-0 | 1506.10 | 1492.52 | 74.61% | 1.48% | 23.91% | +5.06 | 16 |
| 1919-02-04 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 3-6 | 1511.16 | 1487.46 | 28.02% | 1.48% | 70.49% | -1.29 | 16 |
| 1919-02-08 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 4-3 | 1509.87 | 1502.35 | 73.97% | 1.48% | 24.55% | +0.54 | 18 |
| 1919-02-11 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 4-6 | 1510.41 | 1487.78 | 27.90% | 1.48% | 70.62% | -0.93 | 18 |
| 1919-02-13 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 0-7 | 1509.48 | 1501.82 | 26.20% | 1.48% | 72.32% | -3.93 | 18 |
| 1919-02-15 | Toronto Arenas | W 8-2 | 1505.55 | 1488.70 | 74.95% | 1.48% | 23.57% | +2.09 | 20 |
| 1918-12-21 | @ Montreal Canadiens | W 5-2 | 1496.99 | 1504.49 | 24.55% | 1.48% | 73.97% | +3.64 | 2 |
| 1918-12-26 | Toronto Arenas | W 5-2 | 1500.63 | 1496.96 | 73.56% | 1.48% | 24.96% | +1.23 | 4 |
| 1918-12-31 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 2-4 | 1501.86 | 1494.59 | 26.16% | 1.48% | 72.36% | -0.94 | 4 |
| 1919-01-02 | Montreal Canadiens | W 7-2 | 1500.92 | 1503.55 | 72.87% | 1.48% | 25.65% | +1.94 | 6 |
| 1919-01-04 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 2-5 | 1502.86 | 1501.61 | 25.49% | 1.48% | 73.02% | -1.27 | 6 |
| 1919-01-09 | Toronto Arenas | W 4-2 | 1501.59 | 1494.03 | 73.98% | 1.48% | 24.54% | +0.89 | 8 |
| 1919-01-14 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 2-5 | 1502.48 | 1490.65 | 26.67% | 1.48% | 71.85% | -1.32 | 8 |
| 1919-01-16 | Montreal Canadiens | L 6-10 | 1501.16 | 1506.87 | 72.53% | 1.48% | 25.98% | -3.61 | 8 |
| 1919-01-18 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 3-5 | 1497.55 | 1510.48 | 23.98% | 1.48% | 74.54% | -0.82 | 8 |
| 1919-01-23 | Toronto Arenas | W 3-2 | 1496.73 | 1494.76 | 73.38% | 1.48% | 25.14% | +0.56 | 10 |
| 1919-01-25 | @ Montreal Canadiens | W 1-0 | 1497.29 | 1508.51 | 24.15% | 1.48% | 74.36% | +1.83 | 12 |
| 1919-01-28 | @ Toronto Arenas | W 2-1 | 1499.12 | 1494.20 | 25.90% | 1.48% | 72.62% | +1.68 | 14 |
| 1919-01-30 | Montreal Canadiens | W 3-2 | 1500.80 | 1506.68 | 72.52% | 1.48% | 26.00% | +0.58 | 16 |
| 1919-02-06 | Toronto Arenas | W 3-1 | 1501.38 | 1488.75 | 74.51% | 1.48% | 24.01% | +0.97 | 18 |
| 1919-02-08 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 3-4 | 1502.35 | 1509.87 | 24.55% | 1.48% | 73.97% | -0.53 | 18 |
| 1919-02-13 | Montreal Canadiens | W 7-0 | 1501.82 | 1509.48 | 72.32% | 1.48% | 26.20% | +3.93 | 20 |
| 1919-02-18 | @ Toronto Arenas | W 4-3 | 1505.75 | 1486.61 | 27.50% | 1.48% | 71.02% | +1.53 | 22 |
| 1919-02-20 | Toronto Arenas | W 9-3 | 1507.28 | 1485.09 | 75.50% | 1.48% | 23.02% | +1.83 | 24 |
| 1918-12-23 | Montreal Canadiens | L 3-4 | 1498.52 | 1500.85 | 72.91% | 1.48% | 25.61% | -1.56 | 0 |
| 1918-12-26 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-5 | 1496.96 | 1500.63 | 24.96% | 1.48% | 73.56% | -1.24 | 0 |
| 1918-12-28 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 3-6 | 1495.72 | 1502.42 | 24.63% | 1.48% | 73.88% | -1.13 | 0 |
| 1918-12-31 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 4-2 | 1494.59 | 1501.86 | 72.36% | 1.48% | 26.16% | +0.95 | 2 |
| 1919-01-07 | Montreal Canadiens | L 6-7 | 1495.54 | 1502.87 | 72.35% | 1.48% | 26.16% | -1.51 | 2 |
| 1919-01-09 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-4 | 1494.03 | 1501.59 | 24.54% | 1.48% | 73.98% | -0.89 | 2 |
| 1919-01-11 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 4-13 | 1493.14 | 1504.38 | 24.15% | 1.48% | 74.37% | -2.49 | 2 |
| 1919-01-14 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-2 | 1490.65 | 1502.48 | 71.85% | 1.48% | 26.67% | +1.32 | 4 |
| 1919-01-21 | Montreal Canadiens | W 11-3 | 1491.97 | 1511.30 | 71.00% | 1.48% | 27.52% | +2.79 | 6 |
| 1919-01-23 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-3 | 1494.76 | 1496.73 | 25.14% | 1.48% | 73.38% | -0.56 | 6 |
| 1919-01-28 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 1-2 | 1494.20 | 1499.12 | 72.62% | 1.48% | 25.90% | -1.68 | 6 |
| 1919-02-01 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 0-10 | 1492.52 | 1506.10 | 23.91% | 1.48% | 74.61% | -5.06 | 6 |
| 1919-02-04 | Montreal Canadiens | W 6-3 | 1487.46 | 1511.16 | 70.49% | 1.48% | 28.02% | +1.29 | 8 |
| 1919-02-06 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 1-3 | 1488.75 | 1501.38 | 24.01% | 1.48% | 74.51% | -0.97 | 8 |
| 1919-02-11 | Montreal Canadiens | W 6-4 | 1487.78 | 1510.41 | 70.62% | 1.48% | 27.90% | +0.92 | 10 |
| 1919-02-15 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 2-8 | 1488.70 | 1505.55 | 23.57% | 1.48% | 74.95% | -2.09 | 10 |
| 1919-02-18 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-4 | 1486.61 | 1505.75 | 71.02% | 1.48% | 27.50% | -1.52 | 10 |
| 1919-02-20 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-9 | 1485.09 | 1507.28 | 23.02% | 1.48% | 75.50% | -1.84 | 10 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1919-02-23 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 8-4 | 1507.64 | 1509.11 | 73.91% | 0.00% | 26.09% | +1.38 | 1-0 |
| 1919-02-27 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-3 | 1509.02 | 1507.73 | 26.07% | 0.00% | 73.93% | +2.47 | 2-0 |
| 1919-03-01 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 6-3 | 1511.49 | 1505.26 | 74.76% | 0.00% | 25.24% | +1.13 | 3-0 |
| 1919-03-03 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-6 | 1512.62 | 1504.12 | 26.88% | 0.00% | 73.12% | -1.20 | 3-1 |
| 1919-03-06 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 4-2 | 1511.42 | 1505.33 | 74.74% | 0.00% | 25.26% | +0.89 | 4-1 |
| 1919-02-23 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 4-8 | 1509.11 | 1507.64 | 26.09% | 0.00% | 73.91% | -1.38 | 0-1 |
| 1919-02-27 | Montreal Canadiens | L 3-5 | 1507.73 | 1509.02 | 73.93% | 0.00% | 26.07% | -2.47 | 0-2 |
| 1919-03-01 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 3-6 | 1505.26 | 1511.49 | 25.24% | 0.00% | 74.76% | -1.14 | 0-3 |
| 1919-03-03 | Montreal Canadiens | W 6-3 | 1504.12 | 1512.62 | 73.12% | 0.00% | 26.88% | +1.21 | 1-3 |
| 1919-03-06 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 2-4 | 1505.33 | 1511.42 | 25.26% | 0.00% | 74.74% | -0.90 | 1-4 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1919-01-25 | 24.15% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1497.29 | 1 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1508.51 | 0 |
| 2 | 1918-12-21 | 24.55% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1496.99 | 5 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1504.49 | 2 |
| 3 | 1918-12-23 | 25.61% | Montreal Canadiens | 1500.85 | 4 | @ Toronto Arenas | 1498.52 | 3 |
| 4 | 1919-01-28 | 25.90% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1499.12 | 2 | @ Toronto Arenas | 1494.20 | 1 |
| 5 | 1919-01-16 | 25.98% | Montreal Canadiens | 1506.87 | 10 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1501.16 | 6 |
| 6 | 1919-02-27 * | 26.07% | Montreal Canadiens | 1509.02 | 5 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1507.73 | 3 |
| 7 | 1919-01-07 | 26.16% | Montreal Canadiens | 1502.87 | 7 | @ Toronto Arenas | 1495.54 | 6 |
| 8 | 1919-02-18 | 27.50% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1505.75 | 4 | @ Toronto Arenas | 1486.61 | 3 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game. The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1919-02-01 | 5.06 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 10 | 1506.10 | 74.61% | Toronto Arenas | 0 | 1492.52 | 23.91% | 1.48% |
| 2 | 1919-02-13 | 3.93 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 7 | 1501.82 | 72.32% | Montreal Canadiens | 0 | 1509.48 | 26.20% | 1.48% |
| 3 | 1918-12-21 | 3.64 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 5 | 1496.99 | 24.55% | @ Montreal Canadiens | 2 | 1504.49 | 73.97% | 1.48% |
| 4 | 1919-01-16 | 3.61 | Montreal Canadiens | 10 | 1506.87 | 25.98% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 6 | 1501.16 | 72.53% | 1.48% |
| 5 | 1919-01-21 | 2.79 | @ Toronto Arenas | 11 | 1491.97 | 71.00% | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1511.30 | 27.52% | 1.48% |
| 6 | 1919-01-11 | 2.49 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 13 | 1504.38 | 74.37% | Toronto Arenas | 4 | 1493.14 | 24.15% | 1.48% |
| 7 | 1919-02-27 * | 2.47 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 1509.02 | 26.07% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1507.73 | 73.93% | 0.00% |
| 8 | 1919-02-15 | 2.09 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 8 | 1505.55 | 74.95% | Toronto Arenas | 2 | 1488.70 | 23.57% | 1.48% |
| 9 | 1919-01-02 | 1.94 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 7 | 1500.92 | 72.87% | Montreal Canadiens | 2 | 1503.55 | 25.65% | 1.48% |
| 10 | 1919-02-20 | 1.84 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 9 | 1507.28 | 75.50% | Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1485.09 | 23.02% | 1.48% |
| 11 | 1919-01-25 | 1.83 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1 | 1497.29 | 24.15% | @ Montreal Canadiens | 0 | 1508.51 | 74.36% | 1.48% |
| 12 | 1919-01-28 | 1.68 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1499.12 | 25.90% | @ Toronto Arenas | 1 | 1494.20 | 72.62% | 1.48% |
| 13 | 1918-12-23 | 1.57 | Montreal Canadiens | 4 | 1500.85 | 25.61% | @ Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1498.52 | 72.91% | 1.48% |
| 14 | 1919-02-18 | 1.53 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1505.75 | 27.50% | @ Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1486.61 | 71.02% | 1.48% |
| 15 | 1919-01-07 | 1.51 | Montreal Canadiens | 7 | 1502.87 | 26.16% | @ Toronto Arenas | 6 | 1495.54 | 72.35% | 1.48% |
| 16 | 1919-02-23 * | 1.38 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 8 | 1507.64 | 73.91% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1509.11 | 26.09% | 0.00% |
| 17 | 1919-01-14 | 1.32 | @ Toronto Arenas | 5 | 1490.65 | 71.85% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1502.48 | 26.67% | 1.48% |
| 18 | 1919-02-04 | 1.29 | @ Toronto Arenas | 6 | 1487.46 | 70.49% | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1511.16 | 28.02% | 1.48% |
| 19 | 1919-01-04 | 1.27 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 1501.61 | 73.02% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1502.86 | 25.49% | 1.48% |
| 20 | 1918-12-26 | 1.24 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 5 | 1500.63 | 73.56% | Toronto Arenas | 2 | 1496.96 | 24.96% | 1.48% |
| 21 | 1919-03-03 * | 1.21 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 6 | 1504.12 | 73.12% | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1512.62 | 26.88% | 0.00% |
| 22 | 1919-03-01 * | 1.14 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 1511.49 | 74.76% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1505.26 | 25.24% | 0.00% |
| 23 | 1918-12-28 | 1.13 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 1502.42 | 73.88% | Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1495.72 | 24.63% | 1.48% |
| 24 | 1919-02-06 | 0.97 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1501.38 | 74.51% | Toronto Arenas | 1 | 1488.75 | 24.01% | 1.48% |
| 25 | 1918-12-31 | 0.95 | @ Toronto Arenas | 4 | 1494.59 | 72.36% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1501.86 | 26.16% | 1.48% |